Members Daily Post: 08/09/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

5. Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(143 tips/19 wins/50 places (inc wins) /+57.6 points, advised/ +52.9 Betfair SP)

#1 – 4.40 Good – Just Hubert1.5 points win – 13/2 (WH/BV) 6/1 (gen) 2nd 7/1, -1.5

#2 – 5.50 Newc – Scots Sonnet – 1 point win – 6/1 (WH/BV) 11/2 (gen) 3rd 4/1, -1

Tips x2, #as of 07.57, #2 as of 9am…write ups at the bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.55 Catt – Champagne Angel (9/1<) 28/1 ‘DNQ’  Refused to enter stalls

4.05 Good – Different Face (12/1< guide) H2 2/1 UP

4.40 Good – Nuits St Georges (16/1<) H1 4/1 UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Newcastle Sires (20/1<)

5.15 – Wedding Breakfast 80/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

6.20 – Bluetech 50/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

6.50 – Samoot 

7.20 – Hedwig H4 6/1 UP 7/2

Kevin Stott (16/1<)

3.25 Catt – Aneedh 100/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

3.55 Catt – Cock A Hoop 16/1 UP

 

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

None.

 

5. Horses to Follow

Losing Tips 

4.40 Good – Just Hubert (1st run) H4 6/1 2nd 

5.50 Newc – Scots Sonnet (1st run) 11/2 3rd

 

6.Other/Updates

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Doncaster St Leger Meeting TJCs HERE>>> 

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Tips write ups…

Just Hubert – Within a 5 minutes or so of posting 15/2 / 7s started appearing and I thought 6s was decent enough. If he continues to walk I’ll prepare for a no show but in truth the market wasn’t much of a guide for his win here two starts back and this is nowhere near as deep.  On the strength of his form I thought he should be around 7/2, 4s in this line up, and having fancied him LTO, I thought i’d go in one final time, clinging onto the cliff edge with my fingernails. I can’t seem to get him right this season, backed twice, but not the time it mattered. Doh. This isn’t as deep as that York race LTO where they dawdled again and nothing got into it from off the pace. He didn’t run much of a race in truth. While he scrambled home in his maiden around Pontefract, I do wonder if he prefers going RH. In handicaps he’s 0/9,0p LH, 4/4 RH. Whether there’s something in that I don’t know, but conditions should be fine today. He’s won over shorter than this, in a small field, and does have some relative tactical speed late, when responding to pressure. He’s not the easiest but Tom knows him well and he should have a few horses in front to pass. He won that race here as if there should be more to come at some point as a 4YO and the form working out well.

Stag Horn may be the right fav but he can be keen on the front end, needs to prove his stamina (the odd question but if he settles should be fine) and he steps back up in class. That was a weak C4 LTO in heavy at Catterick, the race run in a 7L or so slower time that the C6 in the race before, over the same distance. Still, he couldn’t have done it any easier but 5/2 looked skinny enough I thought. I can’t think Joe Fanning will let anything get loose/too far ahead on the front end here, and neither will Sean Levey. I wouldn’t mind those three going at it early in the straight and Tom can swoop past and do them all in the final 1/2 furlong. This price does confuse me. Muir says he takes a few runs to get right each season but maybe after that win here he’s gone out of form as quickly as he snapped into it. But he beat Seinesational and Smart Champion well enough there, and if running his race should be ahead again in my view. The latter was given plenty to do LTO but looked to be upsides Just Hubert when they started racing, well held come the line I thought. But he may run his race and JH doesn’t. He shouldn’t be that far away, in theory. Themaxwecan does have a question over his form/well being but has the ability to take this at his best. He was short enough to take that chance thought and I wasn’t sure why he’d just snap back into form, after two lacklustre runs. His 4th before that was solid though.

I won’t begrudge Nuit St George winning if I’ve got Just Hubert wrong again, but he’s up in class also, a deeper race than LTO and on a career high mark. He needs more but he does just gallop and sticks his head down, as he did for us three starts back . But his price looked about right I thought, open to attack from something with more in hand/a touch more class. But consistency / battling qualities /running his race, may win the day.

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Scots Sonnet – a risky one given he’s still a maiden but I fancied him LTO when he was well backed. Sadly he was loaded first in a race with a few who took an age to get into the stalls – he had to sit for an age. He then reared as the gates opened, drawn wide, game over. He did stay on past a few horses in the final 2/3f to suggest he was in form. He gets a go over his furthest trip on the flat and his novice form at the track, over 1m, suggests he’s well worth go. Having looked back again through his runs/form I don’t know why I was confident over 7f LTO. His novice form was solid and hence he got an opening mark of 72 last April. That either badly over-estimated him and/or he’s taken a time to come to hand. I think he’s well handicapped on bits and pieces of form and this is a weak race. Everything has major questions and if he can’t go close here, maybe he’s just useless. Still, the two runs at Hamilton, one in a deep enough C4, offered hope that he can get his head in front at some point, and given his course form, how he shapes and what happened LTO, i’ll give him one more chance. Here’s hoping.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

24 Comments

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  • yesterdays c3+ list had 2 winners from 2 races.
    todays c3+ list
    GOODWOOD
    15:35 dhushan / waterloo sunset
    16:05 different face / mariance
    16:40 stag horn / just hubert
    NEWCASTLE AW
    16:45 iffraaz / landue / indigo lake
    my picks
    WATERLOO SUNSET 8/1 finished not to far behind Richard Hannons Fancy Man last time out who won a listed race in good style a few days ago. that looks to be solid form, the best in the race to my eyes but there isnt alot of form to go by to be honest. there are a few first timers in here with derby entries but until they show something cant say it means much in my opinion. waterloo sunset has the benefit of a few runs under the belt so should know what he their for by now.

    DIFFERENT FACE / JUST HUBERT are both in josh’s various sections above one in section 2 and one in section 5 both with the red H. as ive selected them too on my video replay list i think a double would be the correct thing to do with them.

    as always good luck 🙂

    warren bottomley 08/09/20 2:40 AM Reply


  • NA 2-05. Shadows Girl 40-1, i’ve had a small £1.50 ew at the price, had 2 runs on the flat in july and is now back hurdling, a class,going and distance winner and has run to a good standard quite a few times at this level.
    1lb above lwm but has a good 7lb claimer on board. thought she should be about 20’s hence the early price punt.

    martin whittle 08/09/20 2:53 AM Reply


    • added these for a ew L15,
      Cat 2-15. Someone Exciting
      Good 5-10. Beyond Equal
      New 4-10. Zabeel Star

      martin whittle 08/09/20 8:23 AM Reply


  • on seperate not been having a play with gee geez QT tool which is all new to me but already beginning to see the potential. while having a play and getting to grips selecting various angle and criteria i did stumble across this INDIGO LAKE in the 4:35 at newcastle the angle is the sire FRANKEL runners at newcastle.it reads
    226 runs/73 wins/124 places/win% 32.3/place% 54.87/ +82.38 win / +103.25 e/w.
    kind of seems a fairly obvious angle but i thought i would share.
    i can definitely see the potential of using the QT tool now that ive taken some time to start to get my head around using it properly. 🙂

    warren bottomley 08/09/20 3:07 AM Reply


    • Warren, are you sure of the number regarding Frankel the sire at Newcastle? I’ve just put that into HRB as i tought like you that was a good %. I got 38 Bets/ 13 wins/ 34.21%WSR/ 63.16%Place(incl Wins)
      These figures are all Tapeta races from 2017. I may be totally wrong but i thought i would pipe it up as i dont want to misslead anyone.

      Regards
      Dave

      David Smith 08/09/20 10:58 AM Reply


      • based it on 5 yr which I think is the default setting in gee geez also only Frankel the sire and track Newcastle was the criteria no race code or distance was entered. I did save the angle. Just double checked and I’m getting the same figures.

        Warren bottomley 08/09/20 12:32 PM Reply


        • I may be missing something as it’s all a bit new to me. Hopefully if I’ve got it wrong someone on here with geegeez can steer me in the right direction 🙂

          Warren bottomley 08/09/20 12:35 PM Reply


          • Hmm, I’m getting the same as David in both HRB, and Geegeez query! (well, 1 more runner in Geegeez which is odd, but as a sire he’s only had around 38/39 runners at the track, all codes. Around 0 SP.

            I’m not sure what you’re putting in Warren to get those numbers.

            When I saw you figures I thought what the hell did I miss when pulling together my Newcastle sires report.

            Josh

            Josh 08/09/20 12:40 PM Reply


            • Found it. My bad Frankel wasn’t the only sire selected I selected
              SEA THE STARS
              FRANKEL
              KITTENS JOY
              DUBAWI
              AZAMOUR
              I assumed it just showed me the figures for Frankel as that what the sire for indigo lake but the qualifier result is for them all.
              REALLY SORRY. Didn’t mean to mislead I’m still learning.
              Thanks David and Josh for setting me straight and again SORRY for that balls up. 🙂

              Warren John bottomley 08/09/20 1:00 PM Reply


              • No worries Warren, i’m very happy to help. We are all here to help each other and to get some kind of edge to beat the bookies. Josh helped me enormously when i first stated with HRB, and still does now, so to give something back is my pleasure. Just glad Josh got the same results as me! Personally, i dont have Geezeez but love HRB. Best of luck in the future.
                Dave

                David Smith 08/09/20 1:24 PM Reply


                • I assume HRB does something similar. Would you recommend having a look at it or would I be double dipping as I already have geegeez. ?

                  Warren John bottomley 08/09/20 1:28 PM Reply


                  • I’m not sure what Geezeez offer is the same so i cant really compare im afraid. I know Josh sings the praises of both. I cant really afford both just yet, (more winners and i might). HRB gives me what im currently after, but will keep an open mind. Josh or others may be able to shed any light on their differences.

                    david smith 08/09/20 1:37 PM Reply


  • Fascinating insight from William Muir on Lambourn trainers about Just Hubert’s run LTO… and well, at least he expects a big run! And, thankfully, it sounds like that may not ride him so cold – of course, if he bombs out he’ll have the excuse of ‘well, he didn’t enjoy going forward!’ – he may just be that sort of character…

    “I’m looking forward to him running as he ran well at York but if you watch him in the race; he jumped well and he grabbed the bridle to go forward. It was quite a big field, so when they went round the first corner he’s had to check check check and then he’s thought ‘okay, if you don’t want me to go forward, I’ll drop out’ which then gave us a lot to do. He then ran all the way down the straight to the line. With a smaller field today we can jump out, go forward and do whatever we want. I think he’ll run a really big race.”

    Josh 08/09/20 10:07 AM Reply


  • No joy again on Monday 0/2.

    Two win bets for Tuesday:

    1.00, Calum Gilhooley – taken well to hurdling, trainer in decent form, course winner, can give the weight way here. 2 points win.

    1.30, Horse Force One – won well last time out, course and distance winner, won in this class, can come form off the pace here, trainer and jockey do well here. 2 points win.

    I cannot find anything of value at bigger prices!

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 08/09/20 10:58 AM Reply


  • Just EW bets today:
    215 Tomahawk Ridge
    225 Prince Llyr
    240 Storm Home
    250 Mr Strutter
    325 Aqrab
    335 Happy
    350 Imperial Nemesis
    515 Thawry
    750 Bay Of Naples
    850 Undercover Brother
    355 Not On Your Nellie
    530 Sula Island

    Chris 08/09/20 11:27 AM Reply


    • I’m adding this:
      820 Calins Lad
      I eliminated it when posting but it is well backed and should be an EW bet to nothing if the price does not collapse.

      Chris 08/09/20 12:54 PM Reply


      • Results for the above two posts, in order of posting:
        L,2nd 9/2, 3rd 11/2,L,L, 3rd 7/1, L, L, L, 2nd 9/1, L, 3rd 6/1, 3rd 5/1

        Chris 09/09/20 8:50 AM Reply


  • Josh

    I took your advice to sign up to the Always Back Winners, they’ve took the payment but I still don’t have access 4 days later. E-mailed and messaged them but have had no response. Do you know any other way of contacting them ?

    Geoff 08/09/20 1:29 PM Reply


    • Hi Geoff,

      Leave it with me and i’ll chase them up – Gary improved his website functionality over the weekend and the site was down for a time, I suspect something has fallen through a crack somewhere.
      I’ll email him now
      Josh

      Josh 08/09/20 1:37 PM Reply


      • I have had the same problem. But can now get into the website for selections, but don’t get the morning e-mail whbich is a bit of a nuisance. Gordon

        Gordon 08/09/20 5:33 PM Reply


        • Hi Gordon,
          He’s replacing his email system I think, but the timings of post are usually the same – weekday they go up at around 8am and weekends 10.30am – the emails can come a short while after posts also so it may be best bookmarking and checking at those times – but the email alerts will return soon I believe.

          The new support email if any issues is, winners@always-back-winners.com

          Josh

          Josh 08/09/20 5:43 PM Reply


          • Thanks

            Gordon 09/09/20 12:19 PM Reply


  • Warren…

    Hmm, tricky one… Gold/HRB from comment thread above…

    When they were both relatively cheap/new, you could justify getting both! Now I don’t think you could, unless a you played with big stakes but I could be wrong on that.

    As geegeez has the Query tool if you were to just have one i’d say Geegeez – I’d say at the moment if you were just interested in system building and doing your own stats/trends research etc, HRB is still ahead for me – although I believe some others are decent also but i’ve only really ever tried/signed up to these two. I think Matt will keep improving the Query functionality in time – as he has done with the rest of it, inc the new ‘profiler’ tab/tool etc within the race cards- I still think those racecards are miles ahead of anything else that i’ve seen, esp for the cost. Many serious (£50+ unit stakes maybe) & pro punters really enjoy Proform, but that’s at a premium end of things although they do deals etc every now and then I believe.
    Something for everyone, but if you’re nearer the recreational/seriously engaged enthusiast end, i’d stick with Gold for now. Adding HRB may well give you info overload and have a neg impact, outwith the fact the subs have shot up for new members.

    Josh

    Josh 08/09/20 1:38 PM Reply


  • Thankfully indigo lake won. Phew……..

    Warren John bottomley 08/09/20 5:56 PM Reply


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