Micro Monday: Let’s Twist Again?

 

Nigel Twiston-Davies

Intro

It’s fast approaching ‘Twister Time’ – that time of year where it can pay to keep a close eye on all runners trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies. (his runners in the last week of August may be worth a closer look also) As you can see from the table that follows in the report, his targeting of September and October appears to be deliberate and punting wise, it’s the best period to get stuck in. Well, it’s the one time of year you can have most confidence in his string I find, certainly with any systematic angles/methods.

YOU CAN READ THIS YEARS REPORT HERE>>>

All the best

Josh

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

3 Comments

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  • With micro’s 1&2 there are 30 crossover bets so I’m not so sure about using those which is about a quarter of all bets in micro 2 and over half from micro 1. Also with micro 1 I don’t understand the logic of the >0 runs in 90 days . The only profitable angle is exactly 1 run and next best with any sort of data is 0 runs with a tiny loss. The Novice chase angle just doesn’t seem to have any reliable data at all with 2 wins from 11 and a tiny profit and negative A/E. Sorry mate but I don’t think that micro stacks up at all.

    Chris Albin 25/08/20 1:38 PM Reply


    • Apologies if I’ve been too damning on your efforts I forgot that you use these sort of things as starting points whereas I use them as systems and back all qualifiers blindly. That’ll be our differences in approach to betting then! I would like to point out from experience that bundling different race codes or race types can often distort figures and more importantly profits, best to separate them and use them individually in my opinion.

      Chris Albin 25/08/20 2:13 PM Reply


  • Hi Chris,

    I don’t mind polite damning of efforts!! 🙂 Esp from an engaged systems user/developer/researcher etc.

    As ever with these sorts of angles the logic is subjective and thus the whole idea or ethos of an angle can be debated and could well never be agreed upon.

    I think the logic for all three is sound and I don’t mind the cross over element. You’ve the option of not backing at all or just backing ‘double’ qualifiers once – out of 180 bets total across both that cross over isn’t too severe and of course the handicap hurdles won’t be covered etc.

    These Twister angles are in the knowledge/foundation that without doubt he targets these two months (and back end August arguably also) and seemingly tries to get most of his string ready to fire asap. Whether they’re good enough / suited to conditions etc is another question but with him i’m trying to get the net as big as possible to cover as many runners, but without edging towards ‘backing all’ and trying to leave those angles where the runners are seemingly over bet or no value – such as Twisters chasers making seasonal return – plenty of them win etc but the market has long cottoned on it seems – systematically at least.

    The 1+ run 90 for chasers makes sense to me – I suspect he’s a few that need a run to be tuned up, the market may assume that because they didn’t win/run well on their 1st run back, they should be left/won’t progress, or if they did well on their return doubt their ability to progress again etc. There is clearly still some legs in that approach –

    We take a slightly different view to those smaller data sets – with say 2+ runs, i see it as not being enough data, or logic, to exclude, and had a few more of the placed horses, or even 1 more winner, then they look solid. You clearly prefer to have more ‘proven’ data etc which is perfectly valid approach. I suppose my idea with those 2+ is more speculative, as it is with the Novice handicap chasers – I didn’t think the numbers were big enough to exclude and there’s enough there to think he will bang in a winner or two in those races – and yes maybe with my ‘way in’ eyes that influences to some degree… as did this strange season though… given the 6 weeks cut short last season, there’s a chance there are more chasers that have novice status than would otherwise be the case, and as such it’s not impossible he has more runners in such races this year, that would otherwise have been in ‘standard’ handicap chases. He clearly knows how to train a chaser. Novice handicaps may well traditionally where he sends lesser horses of his/those who can’t jump as well, hence still novices etc, but it’s not exactly masses of numbers if indeed he doesn’t target them/do well this year. But again, those numbers are so small that 1 more winner or 2, makes them look respectable so i’d take the view to include them, but you’d view as not being strong enough – both interpretations are legitimate I think.
    The great game! 🙂

    We shall see how they do, but a ‘backing them all once’ even with the multi quals, has worked fine for us in previous 3/4 seasons, and hopefully may do again. There’s always been cross over with the angles i’ve found for him.

    best, Josh

    Josh 26/08/20 11:30 AM Reply


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