A couple of eye-catchers from Warwick and then a look at some ‘hot form’ it my be worth keeping an eye on…
12th December: Warwick
1.55 – Tikk Tock Boom (7YO/Ian Williams)
This grey mare ran well here on her seasonal return I think, given conditions. The weather this day was awful and the ground rode Heavy. This one’s best hurdles form has been on a sound surface so it was no surprise she struggled a bit here, and may well have needed the run also, given it was her first in 239 days. She jumped and travelled well for a long way before tiring on the turn for home, but she still plugged on. This was only her 3rd chase start and you’d think there would be more to come when getting her conditions. The Ian Williams yard are not exactly firing them in either… 4/50 in the last 30 days, 3/32 in handicaps. They could be going better.
3pm – Twotwothree (6YO/Oliver Greenhall)
This one was well fancied in this race coming into it on the back of two facile victories where he’d gone up a total of 24lb. It could be the handicapper has him but he’s another who’d i’d be tempted to forgive in the ground, carrying 12-00. Those two wins came on decent ground and while he travelled ok to a point here, he didn’t pick up and was tired up the home straight. It was an ok race also, packed with unexposed types, and it could be he’s still worth keeping onside in the weeks ahead. He didn’t look the biggest either and may prefer carrying less weight on his back.
Hot Form >>>
I’ve decided to use the ‘hot/cold races’ tool within HRB as part of my weekly ‘Tracker Tuesday’ routine, in addition to watching replays etc. ‘Hot Form’ is an important factor to consider before any bet, helping us to get a grip on the strength of the races a horse has been running in, and whether they may be well handicapped. If a horse has been finishing in and around subsequent winners that’s usually a positive sign and some indication that their turn may be near. It doesn’t always work out and you have to judge how the form was achieved, in addition to the usual ‘race/profile’ analysis, but ‘hot form’ is a useful string to our bow.
With that said….
Horse: Lygon Rock
He finished 5th of 11, beaten 11l, in the 1.20 Carlisle on the 3rd of November. This was a Novice handicap chase packed with unexposed chasers. He had a mark of 125 going into it and has since been dropped 2lb to 123. This was his chase debut and first run in 197 days. He jumped well enough and may want better ground.
He’s yet to run since but the race is working out well enough…
- The winner won again on his next start, taking a Novice chase with a mark of 138
- 2nd was subsequently a solid 2nd in a Novice chase
- 3rd won his next start off 127
- 4th subsequently 2nd by a neck
Race: Betvictor Gold Cup (Cheltenham/16th Nov)
This race is starting to produce subsequent winners suggesting it was a solid enough renewal…
- 3rd – Warthog- won the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup on Saturday
- 5th – Magic Saint – would win at Newbury on his next start, front two miles clear
- Slate House – he fell when looking likely to win, and won his next start
Happy Diva has yet to run again, being aimed at the Huntingdon Mares Chase she won last year I believe.
The two of most interest, that have yet to race, could well be :-
Belami Des Pictons – finished 4th, badly hampered 2nd, did well to get so close really. More to come if staying sound.
Court Meribel – finished 6th – I’m not sure his ‘ideal conditions’ are fully known as yet but his form generally has a strong enough feel to it and connections felt him good enough to run in the RSA in March. He should be adding to his chase tally at some point this season and could have a decent handicap in him, possibly over 3m. His two chase wins have been on Good.