Members Daily Post: 21/09/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT

Newbury 

none.

Ayr

none.

 

JUMPS

Newton Abbot 

2.40 – Moorland’s George (hncp chase) 10/1 S2 UP

4.55 – Hoover Fever (micro class) 33/1 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 26/261,88p, +22.9) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +147.5)

Daily Tips

NONE, nothing else jumping out at me.

(i’ve dipped into a 3m+ handicap chase over on the free post, which is where they generally live, where I appear to have put the mockers on Nick’s other tip! 🙂 ) 

 

Festival Tips

4.10 Ayr

Tommy G – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP

Dark Defender – 1 point win – 22/1 (lad) 20/1 (WH/Coral/BetB) 18/1 (others) UP

Shortlist: Tommy G / Dark Defender / My Amigo / Gabrial The Devil / Captain Jameson / Soldiers Minute

Safe to say that was rubbish, nowhere near the winner there in truth. Maybe that will be it for the 5-6f sprint handicaps. High now dominating on the straight track now its turned heavy. 

 

Tommy G… well if i’m not close to the bulls-eye with this shortlist of 6 that may well impact my confidence for tomorrow and would be a rather poor effort. So here’s hoping the winner is in there. In the end i’ve edged towards the bigger priced ones on that list which is always more my comfort zone and is less painful mentally. (albeit Soldiers has since drifted out) Going for a shorter priced one to see a biggie romp home on a shortlist isn’t a place I like to be very often, it’s never pleasant. Anyway… this horse has proven form in decent sprint handicaps, well specifically two starts back at Goodwood where he ran a cracker. If he repeats that run he will be bang there. Goldie admitted he made a mistake running him a few days later at Ascot and a fast 5f there probably didn’t suit, but the trainer likes supporting the Shergar Cup so some credit there. This has been the plan ever since and he’s been freshened up. We say what a 40 odd day break at this time of year can do with last week’s big winner, A MomentofMadness. This horse loves Ayr, he handles soft/heavy and he stays further, which could be no bad thing. Goldie has booked Tudhope which I found interesting, having booked SDS for his win at Goodwood- he appears to have got the best he can get his hands on again and he has placed twice on the horse. The jockeys wanted to be up the middle yesterday and he should be able to get out and track any pace. Tudhope rode a sprint winner here yesterday and I suspect this one will get a similar ride, never too far away. Plenty of winners yesterday ran on the pace and I don’t think you’ll want to be too far back. It could be he’s just out of form but I thought there was plenty to like about his chance here, for a trainer who knows what it takes to win this race…

Dark Defender   ….as does Keith Dalgleish. I tipped this one to victory LTO and i’ve stuck with him again. He has bombed out in this race before but that was as a 3 year old and a few days after a hard fought victory. He’d been running well for most of the season and relished getting his toe in at Hamilton and he will love conditions here. His jockey knows him well and he should race on the pace if at the top of his game. He is a bit of a character but does battle well when on his a game. He beat a progressive horse LTO and one that was further back has since won again, at York, beating Soldier’s Minute and Captain Jameson in the process. I’m pinning some hopes around that close 2nd in the Scottish Sprint Cup last year. That was a decent renewal and again there he got his ground. A decent big field C2 handicap is no hindrance to him and again he is another who has a decent course record. I thought he looked interesting at his price, but he is the sort who can just disappear out the back of the tv if he isn’t in the mood. Worth chancing I thought as I suspect this has been the plan since his last win.

Of the rest… well I really like Gabrial The Devil but I didn’t like his price. He was generally 9s< and I just struggle to bring myself to back something that short in a race like this, with 16+ runners. I do every now and then and usually regret it! He does look progressive and as if he enjoys soft ground. He stays a bit further and likes to lead. He’s been nothing but consistent and this looks his ideal trip. But, he does have to prove he can win on soft/heavy (they are due more rain through the day) and this is a completely different test to anything he’s faced before. Fahey knows how to win this race and it may well have been the plan since that Hamilton win, running him over 5 and 7f to ensure he may not bolt up and ruin his mark. He could be well handicapped still. So, a decent chance,but one where I wanted 12s+. If there is one to bolt up, I fear it could be him.

My Amigo…he was next on the list after that decent run LTO but I didn’t know what to make of that Irish form and I think he benefited from a track/pace bias as middle/high really struggled. But he ran with credit. He doesn’t mind soft and stays further but this could be one run too many and I decided this race may just be a tad too hot for him. But he’s in form and just keeps galloping and may not be far away. He is now 0/11,4p in C3 and above and does need to find a bit extra, and this is his first run here. Of some interest…in the 8 renewals of this 6 winners have been in the top 10 of the weights (6/89,18p) vs 2/110,14p 11th or below. There may not be much in that due to the placed stats but of some interest. He is clear top rated on Geegeez Speed and HRB and is the solid yardstick, but he does need to step forward on recent runs. I deliberated on him for some time at 14s but left him in the end. A close enough call and hopefully he runs well.

Captain Jameson..well initially last night both he and Soldier’s Minute were high up on my list and no doubt one will now bolt up… on reflection I didn’t see why this one would finish ahead of the other on that York run but he did win on soft as a 2YO and that may make the difference. He just hasn’t won this season and has been a beaten fav the last four runs. He can over-race and I just thought this could be deep enough for him. But he has time on his side. I went for a couple of more hardier ones. Soldier’s Minute…hard to know if he will handle this ground but he’s run well on good to soft and it could be the making of him. I thought he had every chance LTO but didn’t go through with it/battle as much as the winner. That could just be experience and he ran well in a big field at York earlier in the season. He’s inexperienced though and in the end I left him. I could well be wrong and he will race up there on the pace.

So, those are the ones I thought were most interesting. I can cope with Captain Jameson and Gabrial winning, My Amigo and Soldier’s will be a bit more painful but I only wanted to back two in this. If either or my two win or Soldier’s, given Nick’s tipped him, we’ll hopefully all be happy enough! 🙂

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Autumn Trainers

E Lavelle

2.40 NA – Allez Jacques 9/1 UP

C Longsdon (8/1< best) (has had 9/1 SP winner this month)

2.40 NA – Aunty Ann 8/1 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Bronze Cup… I won’t do a full stats profile/trends, but having had a quick flick through there isn’t much of note from the 8 renewals and certainly nothing I can see that would put you off. 

Trainers to have won the race so far…  Fahey (x2) x1… Keith D, Jim G, M Fife, A Bailey, R Price, S Harris

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

32 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Josh, I wouldn’t worry about picking the same as Nick as that is a system system in itself. Always double up!!

    Jim 20/09/18 7:01 PM Reply


    • haha, it was only tongue in cheek. I don’t, and I deliberately try to avoid reading comments until i’ve made up my own mind, hence why in theory when myself, and any others may agree, it should bode well! It often does, not with Titan sadly. On we go.

      Josh 20/09/18 7:02 PM Reply


  • Another blank day with a couple of places. Possibly Polybius a shade unlucky to go down by a neck?

    Two qualifiers in the 40%+ trainer/jockey combo stats:

    16.30 Newbury – Ice Gala (45/58 12 months) 2/1

    16.10 Ayr – Pour Le Victoire (40/54 30 days) 28/1

    Can’t resist a tickle on Tony and Poppy at that price, might squeak a place (odds shown to fifth with B365).

    You may be pleased to know I shan’t be posting qualifiers again until Friday evening 28th as off to deepest Devon for a week and unsure of wifi signal.

    All the best for the week.

    Mark Curtis 20/09/18 7:40 PM Reply


    • they’re not tips Mark! They are very good starting points, that will throw up plenty of winners and plenty fof losers, the nature of the beast! The research and logic is sound.
      Yea if you’re away, be away properly if you can, time is precious. A week without wifi sounds bliss to me.
      Enjoy, Josh

      Josh 20/09/18 8:49 PM Reply


      • Plenty of Good Wi-Fi in deepest darkest Devon, I live here.

        Greg Phillips 20/09/18 9:26 PM Reply


    • Pour La Victoire is an 8 year old running in a class 2 with a double penalty,the highest class that it has won in is class 4.
      Tony is a master with his horses,but this for me is a step to far,it is his only runner today.

      Tomorrow Tony has one runner at Ayr in the Silver Cup with Oeil De Tigree which he owns himself,this one ran 2nd to Tommy G at Goodwood in a class 2 G/Firm but won on Soft ground 3 times,it is a 7 year old and again its highest class win is class 4.

      Traveling so far and a very shrewd trainer could end up with a double,what do i know with my form at the moment!!!

      colin leafe 21/09/18 10:55 AM Reply


  • Not pleased to know at all Mark.Still feasting off the treble last Monday.Have a good break.

    Colzoss 20/09/18 8:38 PM Reply


  • Thanks gents, true enough.

    Mark Curtis 20/09/18 9:01 PM Reply


  • Blyton Lass came home in the last race tonight at Chelmsford and with 1 NR that’s +2pts for the day.

    Newcastle on Friday. Qualifiers as follows:
    5.50 Tuff Rock 9/2 & Airton 9/1
    6.50 Chance of Glory 13/2

    1pt win each.

    Good Luck.

    Ken McKenzie 20/09/18 10:30 PM Reply


  • 530 Dun Gottardo 8/1 & Pillar 12/1
    750 Nc Forward Thinker 11/4
    850 Nc Kibarr 9/2

    -3 after day 1

    kevo19 21/09/18 12:38 AM Reply


  • The Doyler: Here’s a novelty, he flies to Australia to ride two at Caulfield for Charlie Appleby on Saturday. A link to the first
    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/469/caulfield/2018-09-22/712429/at-a-glance
    The second ride is the next race at 0750.

    chrisrees 21/09/18 12:46 AM Reply


  • looking at the going and the weather i’m having a 1pt win bet on Intense Romance 8-1 Ayr 3-35 . any extra rain won’t inconvenience her and won well lto , only one of the top 4 in the market to have won on heavy. can’t see Mayleaf Shine turning around the Haydock form but may well follow her home again.

    martin whittle 21/09/18 1:12 AM Reply


    • great pick Martin.

      Paul Ebrey 21/09/18 3:52 PM Reply


  • Off to Newton Abbot today! If anyone has any thoughts they would be much appreciated! For a bit of value I shall have a fun bet on Rainy Day Dylan in the novice chase, hoping he will go off in front and stay there! Obviously the Aunty Ann, Allez Jacques, Moorlands George tricast from the various tips above too!!

    Cheers all

    dougandnicky 21/09/18 6:43 AM Reply


    • Have a look at Mansion, 345, in the pre-parade ring to see if he’s fit as he is obviously a late developing type (started off with W Haggas ), and after 18 months off, could have made marked physical progress.
      The novice runs can be ignored in this scenario and he is entered in a weak h’cap by VW so might be able to be followed this season. The dam did not race but there was plenty of stamina in the genes and the sire gets plenty that stay on such matches, despite his sprinting prowess.
      Have a great afternoon.

      chrisrees 21/09/18 9:13 AM Reply


      • Thank you!!!

        dougandnicky 21/09/18 9:33 AM Reply


  • Sporting Boy Newton Abbot 14:40 1pt e/w Price available 40/1-I don’t get why he is such a big price in a field that on paper doesn’t have a lot of unexposed types. He is 2lb lower than his last chase mark when he won as he liked last October. He is 2/4 at the track. If you look at his handicap runs outside of class 1 company when returning between 7-14 days his record reads 5/6 +28. His trainer is 3/7 in the past 14 days. He won’t mind the ground if its good or good/soft. He should be able to lead or at worse track the pace.
    Soldiers Minute Ayr 16:10 1pt e/w Price available 14/1-We backed him on his last 2 runs including LTO when he just went down by a neck. Given the trainer and owner (combined for 2 winners yesterday at the track) I suspect this will have been the plan particularly given the rest pattern and the fact that Beasley is back on board here. I still think he is extremely well treated off 83 (3lb well in after his last run). Should be able to lead or be up there. Given he ran well in a listed race as a 2yr old over 7f on softer ground I actually think there is a decent chance the softer ground may help. (also breeding suggests it will) Really thought he had a good chance.

    Nick Mazur 21/09/18 7:59 AM Reply


  • In the spirit of friendly rivalry, a couple of shots at the Bronze podium.
    They are predicated on the possibility of an unusual scenario which is a runaway leader from the wrong side of the track – box 1, containing Robero, who has ideal going for a stamina laden charge at the winning line along the rail.
    Review the win at Ponte on 11 7 17 in a 0-90 c3 that gives grounds for my theory and note other form on soft. The mark has been carefully reworked to give this opportunity today.
    On the basis of this supposition, I hope that Paddy Power from the four stall, returning to soft going, will be able to track the pacesetter and finish in the places. The stable form seems a bit iffy, with only five winning from 103 in the last fortnight, but this meeting will have been a target for a few so I hope PP, in these conditions, is one of them – 40/1 can be found for both. Have a bet with a bookie now, if you wish, but avoid Betfair as the market is undeveloped as yet.

    chrisrees 21/09/18 8:32 AM Reply


  • I’ve always thought that 5-6f heritage-sprint handicaps are the toughest races of all. Even when you get to Group 1 level you are so much a hostage to fortune as the margins are so tight and the smallest mistake is usually fatal. It still amazes me that Muharrar isn’t lauded more after the year he had in 2015! The only time I have any confidence betting is when it’s during a festival and you’ve had a chance to look at some racing earlier in the week. Most of the racing was on the round at Ayr yesterday so not of much assistance but I get the impression being prominent or leading will be the way to go in the Cups?

    Steve Plant 21/09/18 9:04 AM Reply


    • yep they are the toughest I think, maybe that’s why I struggle to resist the challenge! More fool me. I’ll see how these three sprints go and get pondering, 5-6f heritage handicaps are tough, and I suppose plenty more down to luck than judgement given all the factors at play. Yep pace was holding up well yesterday, you certainly didn’t want to be far back and in the one sprint handicap on straight course, they converged up the middle and the front few were there throughout. I think you want to be leading or just behind the pace, looked hard to come from behind as is the case with plenty of sprints,unless they go too hard. We shall soon find out.

      Josh 21/09/18 10:50 AM Reply


      • High numbers in the Bronze. Alex Steadman mentioned on RUK just before the start that there was fresh ground up the stand rail. They did group down the middle but it was those on that side in the first 4.

        Steve Plant 21/09/18 4:26 PM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    A 4.10 – Kenny The Captain on 2nd run @ 16
    A 4.10 – Red Pike on 10th run @ 33
    A 4.45 – Dominating on 2nd run @ 9/2
    Nc 6.20 – Highway Robber on 2nd run @ 12
    Festival
    A 3.05 – Flawless Jewel on 1st run @ 18
    A 4.45 – Northwest Frontier on 1st run @ 4
    Nb 2.20 – Pacify on 1st run @ 7/2
    Na 4.20 – Flying Tiger on 2nd run @ 7/4
    Nc 5.50 – Tuff Rock on 2nd run @ 5/2
    3m+
    Na 2.40 – Exxaro on 3rd run @ 12
    GL

    Titus 21/09/18 9:24 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    4.10 Ayr Gabriel The Devil BOG 9/1

    colin leafe 21/09/18 10:08 AM Reply


  • The softening ground at Pontefract did not hinder the selection yesterday as he obliged at BOG 8/1, 0/5 point higher than advised.

    Chris M Selections:
    Newton Abbot:
    15:45 – Winter Spice (9/1 gen)
    Unexposed sort in this sphere with the majority of his racing coming over flat. Switched to hurdles 3 starts ago and made a reasonable start coming 2nd from 15 over C&D 2 starts ago. LTO he made some early jumping errors which ended his challenge but from that race he has stepped down to a 0-105 HCP instead of 0-120, the drop in quality could give further improvement today. Trainer seems to having a good run at the moment as well, having 3 wins from 7 rides in the last 14 days. I would expect improvement today and for me 9’s is shade too high.

    Good luck today 🙂

    Chris M 21/09/18 10:37 AM Reply


  • I am down in Dorset this week and so a bit sporadic re racing. I like two today at prices:

    3.35 Ayr Amthaal at 28/1. Joseph O’Brien runner who may find improvement with some give in the ground?
    4.10 Ayr Adams Ale at 22/1, goes well fresh. likes big fields, goes on the ground.

    I have backed both at these prices.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 21/09/18 10:42 AM Reply


    • Are my selections still running? It will be dark soon!!!!

      martin colwell 21/09/18 4:44 PM Reply


  • I have a speed improvers method I use and it shows a huge figure on Gabriel the devil on your shortlist I got it at 10/1 last night and was still available early this morning long gone now though.

    Jeffrey 21/09/18 12:08 PM Reply


    • good luck, yea were he widely 10s this morning I may have pondered for longer, that price given his profile is probably ok. I have a psychological problem with horses in single figures in races like this haha. He’ll go very very close, but hopefully one of those with a bit more nous may do for him!
      Josh

      Josh 21/09/18 12:44 PM Reply


  • 21.9.18 16:55 Newton Abbot Flying Verse
    21.9.18 17:10 Ballinrobe Lareena
    21.9.18 17:20 Ayr Assimile
    21.9.18 18:10 Ballinrobe Montalbano
    21.9.18 19:00 Dundalk War Room
    21.9.18 19:10 Ballinrobe Dont Go Mad

    Richard 21/09/18 4:45 PM Reply


  • Evening …
    Not been betting these last 2 days been on a sabatical and have been implementing my systems onto my newly subscribed to hrb system …….. does anyone know what score my “chi” should be on my systems the higher the better is it do you know ???
    p.s. my headgear system is flagging up 2 j oisborn horses tomorrow in the 18.15 at wolves … 9/2 & 18/1 ……….interesting 🙂
    cheers n fanx
    bc

    BRIAN CRICK 21/09/18 6:26 PM Reply


    • (i’ve read your email Brian, haven’t had time to reply yet, I will!)

      Josh 21/09/18 6:31 PM Reply


      • no mucking flurries 🙂 josh .. i know u r a busy boy … and really appreciate all your help on here and behind the scenes in the engine room !!!

        “british rail” ………. i am getting there !!!!

        just done the yearly p/l’s on my systems ….omg only 2 were showing a bfsp profit 🙂 so its as good at knowing which aren’t working as to which are 🙂 …. best one showing 250pts for the year ( but bets can be refined to improve 🙂 ) and a chi of 2.89 ??????? hellllllppp !!! i thought chi was a town in west sussex ?? 🙂
        may let my system bets loose for real tomoz … we shall see 🙂

        thanks for the continuing support ( sorry to be a pain .. but is my second name after all 🙂 )
        ta
        bc

        BRIAN CRICK 21/09/18 6:46 PM Reply


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