Members Daily Post: 20/09/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Packs

FLAT

Ayr

4.10 –

Che Bella (micro dist) w1H3 I3 9/2 

Maulesden May (m dist/runs) w1ES+7/1 S3A 

Ce La Vie (m dist) G3 16/1 

4.45 – Broken Wings (m dist/runs) ES+ H3 I3 14/1 S3A# 

5.20 – Qasr (m runs) ES+H3 16/1 S3A

 

Yarmouth

3.25 – Financial Conduct (all hncps 5 yrs, all) w230 ES+9/1 S3A 

4.00 – 

Rare (all hncps + m hncp debut) 4/1 

Nassya (m going) 14,30 10/3 

4.35 – 

Polybius (all hncp 5 yrs, all) 30 ES+ I3 10/3 S3A 

Lady Freyja (3yo+,+ m age) G3 3/1 

 

Pontefract 

2.40 – Kannapolis (3yo+ hncp) H3 I3 G1 12/1 S2 S4 S6 

3.15 – Ventura Dragon (m class/class move) 16/1 

3.45 – Nuns Walk (3yo+ hncp) w2 13/2 

4.20 – Angel Gabrial (m class move) H3 13/2 

5.25 – 

Round The Island (all hncps) 14 H3 I1 8/1 S2 S6 

Shortbackandsides (3yo+,+ m age) I1 12/1 S6 

Dawn Breaking (all hncps) 1411/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 26/261,88p, +22.9) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +149.5)

 

Daily Tips

4.00 Yarm – Bossiney Bay– 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) UP 11/2…not much to cheer there, maybe hasn’t stayed, but under pressure long way out. Read the top of the market correct, just took them all on with the wrong one. Onto Titan…

5.10 Yarm – Sir Titan – 1 point win – 11/1 (bet365/BV) 10/1 (gen) UP 13/2, no excuse there, got the price, outran odds, sadly no return.

that’s it for today, 09.13…write ups…

Bossiney Bay… I thought 10s was worth a stab here given how she bolted up two starts ago and 6lb extra wouldn’t have stopped her there. While she did dictate she found plenty for pressure up the hill and got better the further she went. She does have to prove she stays this trip but that’s a question for most in here and the price was generous enough to take a chance. A few of her maiden/novice runs suggested she may relish this distance and at least she knows how to win. I’ll blame the ground for her last run given it was GS and on the evidence to date she appears to want it quick. SDS has been booked and I couldn’t help but note that he’s 6/13,10p in course and distance handicaps, suggesting he gets the pace here spot on most of the time. Given how she won at Leicester he may try and dictate this from the front and wind it up. I think Spencer may be happy to track him but it’s just whether with the new trip they are less aggressive. But a waiting ride in front, kicking for home, wouldn’t leave her with a stamina excuse. I thought the rest had plenty of questions in the context of their price. Cumani’s may keep improving but the last race was 3 runners and she’s gone up 5lb for that. This will be tougher and hopefully it finds her out. Stoute does well with his handicap debutants here and is clearly one to fear but does have to improve on what she’s done so far, as does the Gosden horse who they try in blinkers (he has a good record with those 1st time). Maybe there are too many unexposed ones in this but the selection looked progressive two starts back with much more to come. If she builds on that run I thought she’d be the benchmark here for the rest and 10s was too big, esp if SDS tries to dictate. She looks like a big galloping sort and hopefully will just keep going and out battle most of these.

Sir Titan… a double figure price for this one just looked silly to my eyes especially given the questions for the rest, before even considering his form… if he gets back to the form a few starts back where he won twice (the latter of those was a cosy win come the line) and came a close 2nd in a decent enough C2, then he’d be the one to beat here. I think there are valid excuses for his last two runs… two starts back he was drawn in stall 19 (around Goodwood) and they took him to the back and it was near impossible to make a challenge. Last time out was just one hell of a deep race and I wonder if he was going faster than his comfort zone when holding a position in the front 5. This race is nowhere near that depth. Of course it could be that his season is done and he’s at the tail end of his form cycle. But I get the price to find out. Tregoning is 1/6,2p in handicaps here and Hayley Turner is 3/15,5p here in handicaps also, in recent years. The trainer’s had a couple of winners in recent days and they seem to be going well enough. The rest have questions to answer also, and in that context look short enough… Colonel Frank and Human Nature haven’t beaten much between them for me and now need to step up, which i’m not sure they’re capable of on past form. But if none of the others run their race they will probably battle it out again. Crisford’s returns after a break, has had a wind op, gets CP and has to prove he will handle GF. He ran well on it first time up but was generally kept to softer after that. He still has time on his side but has plenty of questions at 10/3. As does the Burrows horse who’s had a break also and on paper GF is a complete unknown. At least he knows how to win but again he needs to step forward. Hayley may try and make all on the selection, or track the pace if something is good enough to do so. He has the best handicap form in the race by quite some way and if the horse repeats that Newmarket 2nd he’s the one they all have to beat, and will take a good one to do so.

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I avoided Pontefract today given they’re forecast 12mm of rain and who knows what the ground could be come mid afternoon/the latter races. Ayr looks like it will be a bog all week, and probably heavy come Saturday. There wasn’t much that stood out on a quick flick through to my eyes.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

3.15 Ponte- Daawy 18/1

The Doyler

2.20 Yar – Boerhan 10/11

2.50 Yar – Oriental Sea 11/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

22 Comments

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  • U.S. Racing Tips – Thistledown race 8, 10.10 UK time, Forest Blaze 12/1 BOG at present, 1 point each way. If a non runner then the selection is Shamrock Road each way.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 19/09/18 6:37 PM Reply


    • Ran his race. No disgrace being beaten by the fav. Small profit. Thanks.

      Ken McKenzie 19/09/18 10:32 PM Reply


      • Yes, I had 12/1 each way. A decent run and a bit of profit.

        martin colwell 19/09/18 10:41 PM Reply


  • Proper carnage on Wednesday on the stats front. If you found the 2 winners (7/1 and 13/8) and the few places from all the qualifiers you’re a better man than me!

    Thursday qualifiers much thinner on the ground, thank goodness:

    15.25 Yarmouth – Sharja Silk 3/1 (40/73 at course last 12 months)

    16.00 Yarmouth – Nassya 7/2 (41/66 last 30 days)

    16.35 Yarmouth – Polybius 7/2 (46/61 last 30 days)

    15.35 Ayr – Dubai Horizon 7/2 (47/57 last 12 months)

    Best of luck.

    Mark Curtis 19/09/18 7:36 PM Reply


    • Found one of them (Sheika Reika 9.3), but backed it primarily on the basis of it’s sire stats for the race conditions on the day. Nothing wrong with good supporting trainer/jockey combination stats though. If only we could find a few of those every day.

      Tim 20/09/18 11:49 AM Reply


  • Sir Titan Yarmouth Thursday 17:10 1.5pt win-This one shouldn’t be the outsider of the field. His last 2 runs have been down the field but both times he had a coffin draw and both races were considerably better. Before that he went close in a class 2 and is on the same mark. He only gets to face 5 other rivals here and they don’t appear to amount to much. There is a reasonable chance he gets to lead here as well. Hayley has a good record here and has an excellent record for the trainer. 12/1 looked way too big.

    Nick Mazur 19/09/18 8:23 PM Reply


  • 2.00 Ayr – Truth or Dare 1pt e/w 7/1
    As far as my eyes can see this one has been very highly tried over the last year and it gets its easiest task for quite some time.
    Its last win was a Cl3 16k race over 7f on soft ground. OR87
    Today it races in a Cl4 6k race over 7f on soft ground. OR84
    To add to the mix D Tudhope rides for J Bethell and in the last two years in hcps they are
    13 runs – 5 wins – 10 places.

    Money has come already for Queen’s Sargeant and I can see why but i fear Right Action more (saver)

    gallou 19/09/18 9:47 PM Reply


  • No winners and 1 NR for -4pts on Tuesday. Chelmsford on Thursday. Qualifiers as follows:
    5.45 Jack’s Point 5/1
    6.45 Space War 9/1
    7.15 Greatest Journey 8/1
    8.15 Voice of a Leader 20/1 (EW)
    8.45 Harvest Ranger 25/1 (EW)
    9.15 Blyton Lass

    1pt win except where noted EW

    Good Luck.

    Ken McKenzie 19/09/18 9:52 PM Reply


  • I’ll stick my head above the parapet with an AW system I’ve been testing quoting Bet365 prices I’ve taken still on BOG
    545 ch Deputise 9/2
    645 Ch Space War 8/1
    715 Ch Restive Spirit 3/1

    kevo19 20/09/18 2:59 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    A 2.30 – Cadeau Magnifique on 3rd run @ 16
    A 3.05 – Weld al Emarat on 3rd run @ 7
    A 3.05 – Ventura Secret on 7th run @ 15/2
    A 3.05 – Chinese Spirit on 5th run @ 11/2
    A 4.45 – Mable Lee on 3rd run @ 9
    A 4.45 – Goninodaethat on 3rd run @ 33
    A 5.20 – Hillgrove Angel on 1st run @ 25
    P 2.40 – Echo Cove on 3rd run @ 14
    GL
    Mike

    Titus 20/09/18 9:06 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    Pontefract
    3.45 Procedure BOG 7/2
    Chelmsford
    7.15 Rufus King BOG 11/4
    8.15 Satchville Flyer BOG 7/2

    colin leafe 20/09/18 10:09 AM Reply


  • Nothing from the 2 running selections yesterday.

    Chris M Selections:
    Pontefract:
    17:25 – Round the Island (15/2 gen)

    Chris M 20/09/18 10:12 AM Reply


  • My selections for today based on a system of 3yo in hcps.
    I don’t expect anyone to follow me in but just monitor could be a total disaster.

    Best bet 8.45 C SPRIZTZIG 28/1 EW

    Others
    Beer with the boys 5.20A

    Aurtretot 3.15P
    Juneau

    Elegiac 3.25Y
    Sharja Silk

    Galloping Hogan 8.45 C
    SPRITZIG

    Mike

    mickeydee 20/09/18 11:19 AM Reply


  • I think Skybet must have reached an all-time low today! I received an e-mail from them advising my account will be “restricted” – and guess how much my account balance is – well it’s £5.61. And I’ve never made any withdrawals and maximum balance ever just over £200. So, I immediately tried to withdraw this princely sum, only to get an error message stating that the sum is too small to withdraw in this way!!
    Spineless jokers.

    David Wilson 20/09/18 12:03 PM Reply


    • email them David or make yourself self excluded for a month. you’ll get it back that way.

      Paul Ebrey 20/09/18 12:16 PM Reply


      • It may be the algorithms etc? They randomly do odd things I find. Phone a human being up there and have a chat with them about it.

        martin colwell 20/09/18 3:59 PM Reply


  • 20.9.18 15:05 Ayr Chinese Spirit

    20.9.18 15:25 Yarmouth Lord George

    20.9.18 15:35 Ayr Dubai Horizon

    20.9.18 15:35 Ayr Glasses Up

    20.9.18 17:20 Ayr Hillgrove Angel

    20.9.18 17:25 Pontefract Dawn Breaking

    Richard 20/09/18 1:41 PM Reply


  • 20.9.18 Ayr 17:20 2 Qasr
    20.9.18 Chelmsford 19:15 2 Very Talented
    20.9.18 Chelmsford 19:45 8 Woosh My TJC

    Richard 20/09/18 4:38 PM Reply


  • Good winner for the Roger fell micro. How has that been doing Josh or can you point me in the direction where the results are?

    Chris Sengelow 20/09/18 4:54 PM Reply


    • An ‘ok’ starting point would be the report card home so far, just had a look (i need to update the main links in key, will wait until end of month…’where to begin’ is up to date, not the test zone though)…
      I think, as of the end of last week, Sunday 16th…they were…
      8/71,18p, +0.5 to early odds.
      That winner suddenly makes it look a bit better, but I wouldn’t be diving in systematically as yet, SR way below the research ‘on paper’ % . a 1/4 winning/placing isn’t too bad though, as a way in , and as no odds cap.

      I didn’t really look at Ponte…well backed, 2nd run for the yard, drop in class and headgear back on, and he hadn’t had many goes on rain softened turf in handicaps at all, and that seemed to make the difference. Hopefully some had a nibble!
      Josh

      Josh 20/09/18 5:03 PM Reply


      • Ah right cheers. I only noticed it because I had the 2nd and 3rd (a common them of my day!)

        Another winner to keep S6 ticking along, a decent priced 2nd earlier too

        Chris Sengelow 20/09/18 5:29 PM Reply


        • yep, nice to end the day with something to cheer home at a price. Ah, well places are annoying but shows you’re generally doing something right! They’ll start winning eventually.
          Josh

          Josh 20/09/18 5:33 PM Reply


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