Members Daily Post: 14/09/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Doncaster

3.00 – Speedy Boy (all hncps) w2 H3 G3 8/1  S5 UP

 

Chester

3.40 – Parys Mountain (3yo+ hncps, + micro dist) G3 14/1 UP

4.45 – Super Kid (3yo+) H3 I1 G3 15/2 S2 S4 S5 S6 2nd 7/1 

5.15 – Storm Ahead (3yo+, + m dist) H3 I1 15/2 S2 S6 UP

 

Sandown

None.

 

Salisbury 

None.

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 25/250,85p, +21.9) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +152.5)

 

Daily Tips

2.25 Donc – Gossamer Wings – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) 3rd 9/1, no excuse there really, a tad keen and maybe ground tad loose, but nothing beating winner today. A run of sorts for my money.

5.00 Sand- Cosmopolitan Queen – 1 point win – 7/1 (BV/Coral) 13/2 (gen) UP, poor effort, drifted to 9s and ran as such. Tame effort.

5.10 Donc – Amazour – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen.. BetfS/PP/BetFred/888) 13/2 (others)

that’s all for tips, 09.07…

 

Oh well Amazour is a NR which is annoying. Video below for those interested, inc why I liked him! Some quick notes..

Gossamer Wings… 8s looked over-priced to my eye and if she got back to that Royal Ascot run she’d go very close here. Valid excuses for her next start and I’m hoping her run LTO was to set up her up for this, given it was after 43 days and she got a quiet ride for me, held up out the back and DOB didn’t get after her for quite a while. She could be spot on here, the yard is flying, the main man is back on, she should be on the right part of the track to make her challenge, and I expect a very big run.

Cosmopolitan Queen…well i used Mark’s TJC stats below as a ‘way in’, so cheers! The yard is in flying form and the booking of Mosse is interesting, given they are 5/10,5p when teaming up. He’s always put a decent jockey up on this one which makes me think she’s well liked and she’s certainly very well bred. They will want black-type at some point, if good enough. I think the break is a positive given her last run was her 6th in about 9 weeks I think – it’s not impossible she was just shattered when last seen. She drops in class here and if she can get back to the form of her two wins a few starts back, she won’t be far away. She’s a CD winner which is a positive and she can race up there. I doubt Mosse will have her too far back and she won a shade cosily here, in a race that has produced a few subsequent winners. I thought there was a lot to like about her chance and she looked a shade over-priced. All of the others have questions also and a few, inc Beckett’s, need to step up on what they’ve done so far. Given the jockey booking and the return to a course where she’s won, I can only think she will be spot on here, ready to run her race. Of course they may have an end of season target and this is a prep, but they will want her rating to climb and can hopefully put up a good show.

 

Video Preview... I can’t get it to embed, but you can watch it HERE>>> 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

The Doyler

4.40 Donc – Politicise 9/1

Top of the Class

All Andrew Balding at Chester…

2.00 – Indomitable 8/13 WON

2.35 – Pass The Gin 7/2 UP

3.10 – Bacarat 11/10 UP

4.15 – Falls Creek 11/2 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Doncaster Pointers

Read HERE>>>

As below…

 

Trainer Pointers

All stats for previous five meetings/Festivals

Roger Varian

All runners: 33 bets / 11 wins / 20p / +84 BFSP

  • Top 2 at least once on last three runs: 10/23,14p, +80
  • Top 4 LTO: 9/19,12p, +82
  • 1+ runs at track: 8/15,10p, +64

 

David Simcock

All runners: 27 bets / 7 wins / 10p / +27 BFSP

  • Handicaps: 5/13,5p, +31

 

Luca Cumani

All runners: 22 bets / 6 wins / 14p / +23 BFSP

  • 3-10 career runs: 6/14,10p, +31
  • Ran 21-45 days ago: 6/15,11p, +30

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Jockeys

All stats for previous five meetings

Andrea Atzeni

All rides: 78 bets / 22 wins / 41p / +92

  • 5f or further: 22/64,36p, +106
  • 3yo+ races: 17/43,25p, +65
  • 2nd, 3rd, 4th LTO: 12/27,16p, +78
  • Handicaps/ 0-3 runs in handicaps: 7/16,11p, +48
  • Trainers: Varian/Cumani/Simcock: 12/27,16p, +78

 

Day 3 Qualifiers (from stats above)

my thanks to Neil…

Trainers –
335 – Algometer and Sheikhzayedroad
440 – Monsieur Noir
545 – Loveisili

Atzeni –
150 – Dan’s Dream
300 – Time to Study
335 – Max Dynamite
405 – Chynna
440 – Monsieur Noir
510 – Bernardo O’Reilly
545 – Loveisili

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Doncaster ‘through the card’ Day 3 

I had a bit of time this afternoon to pull the below through the card together for day 3, to use as starting points/how you please… at York, those horses that appeared x3 anywhere did well, as did ‘trainers in form’, both from a ‘systematic’ approach but over the whole meeting, and I clearly haven’t covered days 1+2

Key

Trainer Race Pointers

Festivals/race trends…Trainers that have won said race 2x or more and have a runner

Trainers ‘in form’

’14’Geegeez Symbol as per key 

Top Rated Runners

Those horses top rated on HorseRaceBase / Geegeez / Inform

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1.50

Trainer Race Pointers

Dan’s Dream (2/9)

Trainers ‘in form’

Dancing Star /Laugh Aloud / Ellthea / Hence

Top Rated Runners

Anna Nerium/ Laugh Aloud/ Dancing Star

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2.25

Trainer Race Pointers

Well Done Fox (2/5,4p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Legends of War / Soldiers Call / Gossamer Wings / Little Kim / Shumookhi

Top Rated Runners

Rumble Inthejungle /Rumble Inthejungle / Legends of War

 

3.00

Trainer Race Pointers

Time To Study / Austrian School (4/21,8p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Higher Power / Walton Street/ Ben Vrackie

Top Rated Runners

Island Brave/ Nakeeta / Titus

 

3.35

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

Algometer / Sheikhzayedroad

Top Rated Runners

Saunter/ Saunter / Jukebox Jive

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4.05

Trainer Race Pointers

Sangarius (2/6,3p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Commanding Officer / Pogo

Top Rated Runners

Sangarius /Pogo / Dubai Dominion

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4.40

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

Buffalo River / Monsieur Noir / Royal Marine / Turgenev

Top Rated Runners

Buffalo River /Buffalo River / Buffalo River (only 2 had runs/have ratings)

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5.10

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

Aeolus / Shanghai Glory / Dark Power

Top Rated Runners

Lake Volta /Citron Major / Aeolus

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5.45

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

Loveisili / Unwritten

Top Rated Runners

Busy Street/ Jack Regan / Jack Regan

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

34 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Here you go Josh

    Atzeni
    150 – Dan’s Dream
    300 – Time to Study
    335 – Max Dynamite
    405 – Chynna
    440 – Monsieur Noir
    510 – Bernardo O’Reilly
    545 – Loveisili

    Trainers –
    335 – Algometer and Sheikhzayedroad
    440 – Monsieur Noir
    545 – Loveisili

    And looking ahead to Saturday, Atzeni’s booked rides are

    150 – Open Wide
    225 – Tomyris
    335 – Raymond Tusk
    410 – Leroy Leroy
    445 – Ostilio
    555 – Dubawi Prince

    And the trainers (none from Cumani) –

    225 – Breton Rock and Tomyris
    555 – Highbrow and Dubawi Prince

    neilmck 13/09/18 6:32 PM Reply


    • Superb, thanks a lot.

      Josh 13/09/18 6:43 PM Reply


    • Cracking job Neil thanks very much

      Aaron 13/09/18 7:18 PM Reply


      • Cheers Neil

        dougandnicky 14/09/18 6:40 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Frustrating times at the moment plenty of 2nds,sadly not getting their noses in front,today another two seconds from 3 bets,one backed from 7/1 to 7/2,and many have shortened in the past,it will turn around.

    colin leafe 13/09/18 6:44 PM Reply


    • Sorry I didn’t get a chance to reply yesterday Colin. That was very interesting about Ladbrokes and discrepancy in prize money between here and abroad.

      You have been consistent in stating the requirement for a betting bank when following your selections and so people should have been prepared for this frustrating run and if people have been following for a while like me, it is just a minor dent in overall profits. Fingers crossed for a turnaround soon.

      Francis 14/09/18 7:35 AM Reply


      • Never a bad thing when you are missing out narrowly…better than finishing stone last repeatedly.

        Colin, do you have similar stats for your own selections like you provided for Nicks. Would you mind sharing if so? Thanks

        Chris Sengelow 14/09/18 9:51 AM Reply


  • The flukey 100% record ended on Thursday, with two from five going in. More than made up for by Josh and Nick. Friday qualifiers are:

    15.15 Listowel – Freetown (41% win/69% place last 30 days)

    14.25 Donc – Legends of War (40/65 last 12 months)

    17.00 Sandown – Cosmopolitan Queen (50/50 12 months)

    17.30 Sandown – Morning has Broken (as above).

    The AOB runner at Listowel looks a bit short but obviously up to you how you use the info (or not, of course).

    Best of luck.

    Mark Curtis 13/09/18 7:45 PM Reply


    • Cheers Mark. Four incredible days. Two of those days, your patent/EWD advice with the NR’s turned to gold as well!

      lately 13/09/18 8:35 PM Reply


    • take a bow fine sir …. great baptism to the bill board …….. you have proven your merits …. you have passed your apprenticeship with flying colours .. and made my betting a whole lot nicer to look at 🙂

      on y va !!

      great work and thanks for posting …..keep up the good work ! 🙂
      bc

      BRIAN CRICK 13/09/18 10:08 PM Reply


      • Very kind of you gents. The lucky run had to end sometime but it was fun while it lasted. I still expect a reasonable flow of winners but it stands to reason there will be losing runs like every other method. I will carry on posting the 40%+ qualifiers and members can do as they wish with the info, as we all do with all the great contributions to this site.

        Be Lucky!

        Mark Curtis 13/09/18 10:47 PM Reply


        • I’ve had a little look into the Sandown pair. Both look as if they have a fairly decent chance. Both around 6/1. A little 1 point double for me. Fingers crossed. Thanks for the info.

          Shaun Gannon 14/09/18 8:16 AM Reply


    • Mark,
      what a cracking start,do like Trainers and Jockeys stats.
      Now for the bad news decided to invest today,so if it goes pair shaped you know who to blame!!!

      colin leafe 14/09/18 10:24 AM Reply


      • Ha, thanks Colin. Yes, expect a truckload of manure if they all lose☺ On the other hand I’m with you on Normandy Barriere so better not jinx you!

        Mark Curtis 14/09/18 11:37 AM Reply


  • Josh posted this link near the bottom of yesterday’s post. So if you missed it here it is again.

    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Kens-AW-Results-2.pdf

    To give a little more background, I was off work for 6 weeks after a back operation in November last year. After a week or so I was just about well enough to sit at my PC (don’t think the doc would’ve approved though!), so I spent the remaining 5 weeks recording data on AW races.

    Using speed ratings as my “way in”, I recorded a number of other factors to see if I could find some trends or patterns to winning horses. I started off with very basic information but with a little help from my golfing and racing buddy Mickeydee, I added to the number of factors I used in the calculations and over the following months I’ve added a few more.

    Currently I look at the Race Type (Hcap, novice, maiden, etc), Distance, Class, No. of runners and Odds (overnight, SP and BSP).

    To start with, I select two horses from each race using two separate speed ratings calculations. I then filter all the other factors to find the best historic trends and use those trends to find the qualifiers for future races.

    I don’t use any jockey stats or trainer stats to find the qualifiers. The only form data I use is the speed ratings. I don’t apply an subjective judgement (mainly because I know nowt about horses – although I am starting pick up some good stuff from Josh and the members here). It is based purely on the historic trends from the data I’ve recorded.

    I guess when I started, I was trying figure out if there was another way of finding winners without having any background knowledge of horse racing. I saw on here that Josh and many others used statistics to find their shortlist but then usually applied some kind of subjective judgement to reach their final selections. All well and good if you know what you are looking at but it was never going to work for me.

    However, I also noted that Josh’s main strategy selections (S1-S6) seem to be based entirely on statistics, so if it can work for them maybe it can work for me. Totally different types of statistics but nevertheless they are based on historic trends to find qualifiers for future races(if I’ve got that wrong Josh, sorry!)

    After a couple of sticky months in February and March when I was chopping and changing my system trying to figure out where I was going wrong, I became a bit disheartened and took a break from posting to clear my brain (I can thoroughly recommend it 🙂 )

    Since I returned, I now only review the stats at the end of every month and make adjustments based on the current trends. Sometimes that means no change and others some small tweaks.

    At the end of August I felt I had enough data to decide to drop the second method of selection (apart from Newcastle and Kempton). So far this has been going well with a profit of 29.5pts for August so far. Not that any chickens are being counted!

    Overall, since 12 Dec, the profit for my selections to advised/BOG is 133.25pts. Hopefully, the new improved system will keep that trend going.

    Anyway, sorry to take up so much space on the message board but thought after 7-8 months of posting, you were maybe due a bit more explanation as to how my system works. I know this won’t suit everyone and you might even think I’m bonkers (no offence taken!) but a profit is a profit wherever it comes from.

    Cheers

    Ken McKenzie 13/09/18 8:44 PM Reply


    • I should have added, comments/thoughts welcome but I reserve the right to ignore them 🙂

      Ken McKenzie 13/09/18 9:39 PM Reply


      • Thank you for all the trouble you’ve gone to in explaining your methods, Ken.

        I’ve been watching your posts with interest, though I stopped backing your qualifiers late January.

        Using speed ratings as your starting point is a very good plan imho. If I interpret your method correctly, you calculate your own ratings, you don’t use Topspeed or Geegeez, is that right?

        Chris Murrell 13/09/18 10:27 PM Reply


        • No I use Inform Racing speed ratings.

          Ken McKenzie 13/09/18 10:46 PM Reply


  • Swift Approval Sandown 16:30 1pt e/w Price available 12/1

    Nick Mazur 13/09/18 9:53 PM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    D 1.50 – Hence on 7th run @ 9
    D 5.10 – Shanghai Glory on 2nd run @ 7
    C 3.40 – Magical Effect on 8th run @ 9
    C 4.45 – Twin Star on 2nd run @ 11/4
    L 3.45 – Satisfy on 1st run @ 18
    S 4.30 – Repton on 3rd run @ 15/2
    S 6.10 – Brockey Rise on 3rd run @ 10
    Festival
    D 3.00 – Walton Street on 2nd run @ 11/2
    L 3.45 – Maze Runner on 2nd and 3rd run @ 9
    GL

    My dog duties are on hold for a while so these will generally be up between 8.30 – 9.00 for now.
    A bit of a lean time atm but they are sometimes like buses.
    Mike

    Titus 14/09/18 8:38 AM Reply


  • I am still looking for my holiday cash so will have another go today.
    Not far away yesterday.
    Dance Legend…3.10C first go in a hcp of 81 Norton on board.
    Swift Approval…4.30S Nicks tip
    Operative..2.50S Hold up horse Spencer on board 1st time
    I will Follow..4.50 L 2nd in this race 2017
    Cosmopolitan Queen..5.00S josh tip

    Wheelbarrows at the ready. Lol.

    Mike

    mickeydee 14/09/18 9:39 AM Reply


  • Azamour a non-runner

    Jim 14/09/18 9:46 AM Reply


  • Chris M Selections:
    Nothing from me today, couldn’t find any value in my shortlist.

    Chris M 14/09/18 9:48 AM Reply


  • Doncaster – in the 3.00 I like Ben Vrackie as a win bet and Time To Study at 25/1 each way. The former still has improvement to come. The latter has the form going back to win this and so the 25/1 seems worth a go. The 3.35 is not a great race this year and I like Algometer each way for the Simcock stable with Oisin Murphy riding. I like Sir Michael Stoute runners at the course and so think Sangarius will trot up in the 4.05. In the same race an each way selection is Jonah Jones for Dascombe and Kingscote and Hugh Taylor.
    At Chester, stall one over 7F gives us 2.35 King Of Tonga and 3.40 Bertiewhittle.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 14/09/18 10:05 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Chester
    2.35 Indian Sounds BOG 10/3
    3.40 Logi BOG 11/1
    5.15 Bell Heather BOG 11/2
    Sandown
    4.30 Swift Approval BOG 15/2 N/R 5
    Doncaster
    5.10 Normandy Barriere BOG 12/1 N/R 2,11

    When i check BOG take a note of N/R at the time,then when you have a winner check to see if additional N/R then it is easy to check with Oddschecker the price of N/R so you can deduct the rule 4.
    Hope this is a help to keep records up to date.

    colin leafe 14/09/18 10:20 AM Reply


  • hi my learned members 🙂

    not bet instructions just some interesting pointers picked up from here and beyond :

    1.50 Don : HENCE : pointer : Any UK female runners trained by Aiden O’Brien when they are competing against their own sex excluding those in maiden races. (overpriced here for sure)
    1.50 Don : Laugh Aloud = Gosden has a high win percentage at 7f/8f
    2.15 San : Astronaut = highly profitable when W Haggas sends just one to Sandown
    5.30 San : Astrologist = cg cox runners fto after being gelded
    5.45 San : Lovesili = Varian trained horses wearing head gear(admittedly best results with hoods)

    • FRANNY NORTON FRONT RUNNERS AT CHESTER ( one of the best jocks on front runners and especially here at chester)
    • Today – 2:35 Indian Sounds at Chester 11/4
    • Today – 3:10 Dance Legend 9/2

    and also i notice mr i jardine has sent a few quick long distance travellers out today to both donny and chester ( 1-20 days since last race )

    interesting …. gl
    bc

    BRIAN 14/09/18 11:44 AM Reply


    • Nice one with Astronaut Brian!

      Mark Curtis 14/09/18 3:13 PM Reply


      • hi mark 🙂 ….. yep another usual crazy day in my betting life …. had my usual 4000 bets 🙂 and at the moment still have about what i started off with …… and that’s a bonus for me 🙂 …….. gl … on y va !! bc

        BRIAN CRICK 14/09/18 3:55 PM Reply


  • Well what a day so far. Just had David Pipe racing just DM on twitter, to say I’ve won the new signed 2018/19 Pond House brochure. Proper buzzing wow I can’t believe

    Gavin 14/09/18 11:44 AM Reply


    • Ah see, my Re-tweets are worth reading every now and then!! 🙂 Well done. It’s your job to immerse yourself in that now and share any valid snippets/targets etc!!

      Josh 14/09/18 11:48 AM Reply


      • I will 🙂

        Gavin 14/09/18 1:24 PM Reply


  • Nice prize Gavin congratulations

    Aaron 14/09/18 11:53 AM Reply


  • Portland Handicap Stats/trends posted in Sats post, for those who like to get cracking/take a look etc!

    Josh 14/09/18 12:08 PM Reply


  • thanks for your explanation ken,i follow your selections for small change and i am happy with the results.william

    william 14/09/18 12:33 PM Reply


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