Members Daily Post: 11/09/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Catterick

3.35 –

Kings Coinage (micro TJC) I3 11/2 UP

Wotabreeze (m TJC/class) 14/1 UP

4.40 –

Laughton (all hncps) 14/1 UP

Meshardal (m TJC/dist/age) H3 I3 3/1 UP

Indian Pursuit (m TJC/dist/class) w2  9/1 WON 9/1>5/1

Revenge (m TJC) I3 14/1 UP

5.10 – Lexington Place (m TJC/age) H3 8/1

 

Leicester

4.20 –

Rebel Assault (all hncps/3yo+, + m age) ES+ H1 I3 6/1 S2 S3A# S6 3rd 8/1 

Poets Dream (m age) (trainer change) 14/1 UP

 

Salisbury

 

JUMPS

Worcester

4.55 –

Toe To Toe (hncp hurdle) G3 12/1 S1 S2 UP

Murray Mount (m age) H3 I1 15/2 WON 15/2>9/2 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 23/244,82p, +8.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +150.5)

 

Daily Tips

4.40 Catt – Indian Pursuit – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) WON 10/1>5/1 

5.10 Catt – Lexington Place – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365/BV) 15/2 (gen) UP hmm, a bit flat that, travelled well, but didn’t pick up. I’d have taken 1/2 before the day started!

that’s all for tips, 08.57, write ups…

 

Indian Pursuit… well it’s a game of price and whatever this one does here surely 10s is just an insult. That looks a few points too big to my eyes, given he’s 4/6,6p in all C6 races at the track, three of those in handicaps, including this race last year off 65. It’s not impossible that his last run after 35 days, in C5, was just to get him spot on again for this contest. For a front runner/pace pusher he has the perfect draw and won’t have to use up as much energy as he did 2 starts back, where that combined with the 1st visor did light him up a tad I think, but he did well to just cling on. The front two were miles clear that day and he beat an in-form horse who’s at least placed twice since. The 3rd gives that win plenty of substance also given he’s bolted up on the bridle three times since and is now on a mark of 82 or so I believe. There’s a slight niggle about the form of the yard but this is always a tricky time of year… it’s hard to know if the yard has issues or that plenty of horses are running that have had hard seasons etc. He did have a winner 4 days back and I thought the horse ran well enough LTO. I will be slightly bemused if he doesn’t place at worst here, so that’s him done for! 🙂 The other two pace pushers/front runners are drawn wide and there’s every chance they have to use too much energy to get out and across, hopefully there path’s blocked by some on the inside and they get stuck wide! Both those two (Straighttothepoint/Munfallet) like placing anyway but should run good races. The latter may show himself to be thrown in again at some point and he ran well LTO, but this is his first run here. I just saw no reason why the selection won’t go very close here and if he runs a stinker then the Quinn yard will definitely be on the watch list. He’s like the canary down the mine in these conditions. That price is just wrong whereas all those above him feel around the price they should be. The Scott Dixon horse is interesting…Dories Delight just has a very different profile to all of these and ‘could be anything’ now tackling handicaps. One to keep an eye on. I wouldn’t fall off my seat if he ran a big race today, but hopefully will come on for the run/lack of experience may do for him. 

Lexington Place… well my liking for a placed horse/agony in recent days, and more generally, may well extend to this one given his running style but I couldn’t leave him at 8s after realising he’s 3/3 when dropping into C6 and the fact that on paper there is so much pace. He won’t have an excuse here, tactically. He likes a pace collapse/coming through horses. There are 5 out and out front runners in this, and another few who also like to be up there/can lead, and a few more who like pushing the pace also. It should be frenetic stuff, in theory, and that will suit him perfectly. Carr’s yard are going through one of their quiet spells again but again that could be because plenty have had long seasons. This horse arrives in form to my eye. That Beverley run was from a horse still in form. Drawn out wide he was taken far back in order to not be stuck out wide. He did cruise through it but couldn’t get a clear run for most of the straight and the race was long gone by the time he got going. At least he was going forward at the line. Before then he’d placed twice in smaller fields in races that have had subsequent winners/placed horses. He’s slightly risky but at his best I think he’s better than most of these and if he gets the gaps/can race a tad closer (ie not held up right out the back) I can’t think he’ll be far away. He’ll travel like the winner through this I suspect, and with any luck plenty of these burn each other out on the front end. I’ll pay at 8s to find out, which felt a tad over-priced. 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Autumn Trainers

C Longsdon (8/1< best)

2.20 Worc – Sommervieu 22/1 UP 40/1

4.25 Worc – Ortenzia 12/1 UP

Tom Lacey 

2.50 Worc – Equus Amadeus 7/2 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

56 Comments

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  • Nothing from me tomorrow

    Nick Mazur 10/09/18 7:38 PM Reply


  • Wow Mark. That was some first day. 3/3 and a recommended patent. Well done.

    Ken McKenzie 10/09/18 7:52 PM Reply


    • Thanks Ken, very jammy! Probably never to be repeated but nice to see a multiple go in rather than foundering on the last leg! You selecting the same horse clearly gave it a boost! Well done.

      Mark Curtis 10/09/18 8:00 PM Reply


      • Wow what a debut. Had a trixie myself. Thank you and good luck for the future.

        Mick 10/09/18 8:02 PM Reply


      • Haha, I think it was the other way round but nice to get a couple of winners myself. Cheers.

        Ken McKenzie 10/09/18 8:39 PM Reply


      • BRILIANT WORK MARK 🙂 TRIXIE LANDED FOR ME 🙂
        your thoughts are always worth a mention …it’s up to us how we use them .. keep up the good work ! 🙂
        bc

        BRIAN CRICK 11/09/18 10:35 AM Reply


  • Beginners luck today. Tomorrow’s qualifiers as follows:

    17.25 Leicester Long Call (46% win/46% place)

    18.10 Salisbury Tuff Rock

    18.40 Salisbury Highland Sky

    19.10 Salisbury Encryptic

    These three are from the combo that’s 50/60 win/place in last month. Can’t imagine all three will oblige so suggest a closer form analysis to arrive at selections.

    There were also qualifiers for Elliot and Johnston and Balding and Hornby but discarded as odds on in the first example and 2yo in the second so too unreliable.

    Best of luck everyone.

    Mark Curtis 10/09/18 8:24 PM Reply


    • Mark,
      well done on your first days bets no pressure on you now.
      Do you have any figures and records of past returns,for did not back them i only recorded them to see how you method pans out.
      Good Luck to you.

      Colin

      colin leafe 11/09/18 10:29 AM Reply


      • Hi Colin

        I’m afraid I’m not as organised as that! Just been following the 40% strike rate since the flat started, would estimate around 25% SR but I’m only a small bets for fun guy so best you paper trade before I go down in flames!

        Mark Curtis 11/09/18 10:54 AM Reply


        • Thanks for coming back,you say you are only a fun punter,then may i suggest you have a bank for your bets only ie
          50 bets at £10 = bank of £500 when grows to £750 your stake becomes £15
          50 bets at £15 = bank of £750 when grows to £1000 your stake becomes £20
          50 bets at £20 = bank of £1000 when grows to £1250 your stake becomes £25 ETC
          with this method you are only risking your original bank and when the bank grows enough you can start taking money out.

          colin leafe 11/09/18 12:00 PM Reply


          • Thanks Colin. Your advice is appreciated.

            Mark Curtis 11/09/18 12:37 PM Reply


    • 4/4 now Mark, with a 6-1 today, very well done!

      general6969 11/09/18 5:33 PM Reply


      • Thanks, was a bit worried as it drifted badly before the off but good old Poppy B delivered! Hope you were on.

        Mark Curtis 11/09/18 5:37 PM Reply


  • Josh, the P Hobbs yard has had a poor time recently but might be resurgent this season. Could you have a look at the stats and see where there might be some chances for us, bearing in mind they might have some well rated inmates?
    Contented 220 looks likely when finding the mud.

    chrisrees 11/09/18 7:36 AM Reply


    • I’ll try and squeeze it in but the research list a bit long at moment. Need to have a look at Doncaster etc. I would have looked before and don’t recall any nailed on angles, bar him and Dickie on Saturday’s in chases, but that tailed off a bit in last couple seasons I think. If/when they bounce back to form after their virus in theory should have plenty well-in / fresh enough. Just a case of when they truly start firing. Not a yard i’ve got a grip on from any systematic / non-track angles before really, but i’ll take a look if I can.

      Josh 11/09/18 9:44 AM Reply


      • I do not have anything for Mr Hobbs. Not a good season just gone and we will see how he goes. The Saturday route mentioned puts him in on the most competitive day of the week normally but means prices hold up. As I said here last season re David Pipe regressing, new trainers come and old trainers go. We shall see?

        David Pipe at Perth is an angle.

        martin colwell 11/09/18 9:57 AM Reply


      • One past trait had been to prepare runners for the Chepstow meeting 13/14th Oct. to do battle with the Nicholls team.

        chrisrees 11/09/18 10:30 AM Reply


      • The way I see it both Pipe and Hobbs have been poor for far too long to suggest it was purely down to any sort of bug and both yards just appear to be a shadow of their former selves and it probably pays to look at more of the up and coming yards.

        Nick Mazur 11/09/18 10:35 AM Reply


    • Agree with Nick the downward trend gone on to long.
      Owners may have retired or passed away or maybe just pulled out of owning racehorses for financial reasons,so the quality of the horses in training may have dropped.
      Somersets golden generation of trainer Pipe,Hobbs and even Paul Nicholls who will have to be watched over the next couple of years,could be over.
      Should imagine it will be difficult to attract new owners in the location,for the road network is not fantastic.

      colin leafe 11/09/18 10:50 AM Reply


    • Oh dear 🙁 to put it politely.

      chrisrees 11/09/18 2:28 PM Reply


      • I don’t see how one horse winning has any relevance to the overall being of a stable particularly one which was making his chase debut.

        Nick Mazur 11/09/18 2:35 PM Reply


        • Totally agree!

          Oh dear to put it politely???

          Come on chrisrees , no need for that kind of smugness on this site or any site, lets just help each other win the daily battles and the war V the bookies, not bitching amongst ourselves.

          Thanks

          MacMac 11/09/18 6:33 PM Reply


          • You’ve both mis-read that comment!! 🙂 Which I think was a reply to his own comment, not a reply to a subsequent one, and when I read it I assumed in reference to his musing… ‘Contented 220 looks likely when finding the mud.’
            He won, not in the mud…and I assumed Chris was kicking himself for a) getting that horse wrong and b) i assume not backing him at 14s + 🙂
            Now I could have read that wrong, but don’t think it was a churlish response to Nick’s musings about the possible general decline of the Hobbs yard
            Josh

            Josh 11/09/18 6:41 PM Reply


            • You were right, Josh, regrets I’ve had a few.

              chrisrees 17/09/18 1:43 PM Reply


  • A couple of claiming riders merit attention for this jumps season. Both rode winners y’day and are getting rides from good trainers; they are:
    Rex Dingle
    Connor Brace
    Both can ride at 9st 7lb, claiming seven, so will be in demand for h’capping.

    One claimer I didn’t mention for the flat, but has been doing well, and should ride on the AW, is Poppy Bridgwater.

    chrisrees 11/09/18 7:47 AM Reply



  • Decided to add one given its drifted out to a double figure price this morning:

    Indian Pursuit Catterick 16:40 1pt e/w

    Nick Mazur 11/09/18 8:46 AM Reply


    • Did I say welcome back??? Well done, had the 9/1 about it. I see Josh had it as well, before you this time. Keep them winners rolling!

      martin colwell 11/09/18 5:25 PM Reply


      • Nah beat him to it by an hour or so but thanks.

        Nick Mazur 11/09/18 5:35 PM Reply


    • Dam I missed it after you said nothing today but well done!!

      Steven 12/09/18 12:18 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 2.30 – Mable Lee on 2nd run @ 16/14
    C 4.40 – Burtonwood on 2nd run @ 22
    L 4.20 – Mountain Rescue on 1st run @
    W 2.50 – Equus Amadeus on 3rd run @ 7/2
    Over 3 runs
    C 5.45 – Sellingallthetime on 7th run @ 12
    L 2.40 – Vincents Forever on 4th run @ 11
    S 7.10 – Native Soldier on 10th run @ 16
    Festival
    L 3.45 – Line of Reason on 2nd run @ 11/4
    L 4.20 – Mukalal on 2nd run @ 10/3
    L 4.20 – Mountain Rescue on 2nd run @ 6
    S 6.10 – Tuff Rock on 2nd run @ 4
    GL

    Ken’s question on e/w returns is proving a bit time consuming and crashing my pc but I got to 19/3 and those figures suggest constant losses if doing all e/w. There may be a case for 16/20+ ( 3m and festival) but there are a lot of winners at and over them odds. One bonus was I found a sheet I’d missed off the 3m+ stats along with 8 festival runners. I’ll add them in when I post the stats but they won’t make a negative impact to the profit.

    Titus 11/09/18 9:25 AM Reply


    • Hi thank you so much for posting these on a daily. Have started following systematically from today.

      utsav_killa 11/09/18 10:08 AM Reply


      • Hi Utsav,
        I would suggest modest stakes and build up rather than lumping on at the start as there are times of long losing runs. I have a 100pt bank and lost more than half once before recouping but I have a healthy reserve so I wouldn’t put you off doubling that for a more comfortable ride.
        Mike

        Titus 11/09/18 12:01 PM Reply


    • Thanks for your efforts Mike. I thought you might be able to apply a formula which would work it out quickly but if it’s causing you too much hastle just forget it.

      Ken McKenzie 11/09/18 10:11 AM Reply


      • It’s collecting the raw data that’s the issue. Only way I can do it is to go through the form for each horse as I don’t normally record places for my own bets. It sounded easier to do in theory. I can say with certainty that e/w@sp is hopeless even just for the first 3 runs.
        Splitting flat/nh will require starting from scratch with the stats which is a non-starter atm.
        As runners appear I’ll gather the data and do a further review.
        Mike

        Titus 11/09/18 11:00 AM Reply


        • Hi Ken,
          Had a light bulb moment and realised I totally cocked up my data gathering. DISREGARD ALL I SAID ABOUT E/W cos I wasn’t taking off the losses of original tip from subsequent runs. Instead of going back to start I’ve done a check back to beginning of June using my records instead of my tracker(which isn’t in any order).
          Backing all runners (143) e/w at 10’s+ on morning prices gives a profit @ 1pt e/w of 145.80.
          Backing 16’s+ halves the bets (78) and returns 62.60, so both give a decent roi.
          Backing at sp will show a profit but not sure how it would fare long-term as a lot of odds shorten dramatically.
          Mike

          Titus 11/09/18 3:52 PM Reply


          • Thanks Mike. I generally tend to go ew on +10/1 as I don’t like the long losing runs from win only at those prices. Good to know that ew still earns a profit. Thanks for all your work.

            Ken McKenzie 11/09/18 9:23 PM Reply


  • 440 C Munfallet interests me here, with the trainer’s father targeting races here over his career. The horse was off 8 weeks before his last run on a change of yard so progress today is anticipated.
    He has an outstanding piece of form from two years ago, when beating Blaine, off 87 in a C3 and this is a C6. These are suitable conditions and as a front runner the draw will be irrelevant.

    chrisrees 11/09/18 9:26 AM Reply


    • The draw is never irrelevant for a front runner?! 🙂 (esp when they are not the only front runner in the race?) 1.) he’ll have to break smart and get out quick, he’s in trouble if he doesn’t 2) he’ll have to use more energy from that draw to get a decent early position than a front runner drawn lower. May cope with that fine but could impact in final 1/2 f 3) he could get stuck 3/4 wide if others on inside also break well and hold him wide. Rare for anyone over this CD wanting to be too far back, if there to run their race. Of course he’ll now bolt out, get the lead, drop anchor and be on his merry way 🙂
      It may turn out to be irrelevant today, but in general that’s a dangerous approach in my book! He’s drifting to a better price mind and yep if he found some of his best, he’d bolt up at this level for sure, and maybe this has been a short term plan. GL

      Josh 11/09/18 9:41 AM Reply


  • Chris Selections:
    Catterick:
    16:40 – Meshardal (7/2 gen)
    17:10 – Lexington Place (15/2 gen)

    2 from 3 yesterday gave a great start to the week. Hopefully keep this going 🙂

    Chris M 11/09/18 9:43 AM Reply


    • I hope so too!! 🙂 best of luck.

      Josh 11/09/18 9:45 AM Reply


      • Cheers Josh, let’s hope us both having the same selection is a good omen 🙂

        Chris M 11/09/18 1:25 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    2.30 Catterick Mable Lee BOG 14/1
    7.10 Salisbury Altra Vita BOG 2/1 Mark Prescott is a master with late improving 3yo,is this another way ahead of the handicapper?drifting in the betting but could still go off at evens.

    colin leafe 11/09/18 10:06 AM Reply


  • Salisbury’s gone

    Titus 11/09/18 10:17 AM Reply


  • Some competitiver acing today and winners look hard to find. Likely best to wait for tomorrow and the start of The Leger meeting.
    But we will have a small go:
    2.50 Wor Dear Sire, 3/1. I heard Don McCain say that his last run was a blip and he expected the horse to go on to a reasonable level. 3.55 Wor Present In Court, 10/11. Gordon Elliott’s sole runner at the meeting. 5.05 Sal Kings Girl, 5/2. A progressing Stoute 2YO ridden by Jim Crowley. 7/10 Sal Altra Vita, 2/1. As Colin said an improving Prescott horse going through handicaps.

    My tips went poorly yesterday and so hoping to have a nice Yankee up today.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 11/09/18 10:25 AM Reply


    • OK then, so I will add in Just Be Friendly in with Dear Sire and Present In Court for a trixie then. I did see Oddschecker acting strangely and so thought something was up?

      I knew today would be tricky.

      martin colwell 11/09/18 11:13 AM Reply


  • No bills 2.00 catterick well backed on strength of sympathetic debut at Beverley mick easterby in good form

    paul bailey 11/09/18 11:51 AM Reply


  • Josh any listowel festival tips this week

    paul bailey 11/09/18 1:39 PM Reply


    • well i’ll attack the big one tomorrow in the free post, given a long distance hncp chase, but wasn’t planning on attacking much else, but will see what comes up.

      Josh 11/09/18 2:02 PM Reply


  • Bravo Josh

    Steven Clowes 11/09/18 4:51 PM Reply


  • Well done Nick and Josh a cracking Shout, smashed in the betting before the off too!!!

    Jim 11/09/18 5:11 PM Reply


  • well josh that horse indian pursuit was a creme cake with two cherries on top. as you so rightly said everything looked right and 20 minutes before the race 12-1 was the price on the exchange. crazy i know but thats what gives everyone hope in this game the market gets it wrong sometimes good hit

    paul 11/09/18 5:19 PM Reply


  • yep well done josh & nick .. when you collide the bookies need to take cover .. time after time well done ….brilliant stuff 🙂
    cheers once again
    rice and chips again tonight !! 🙂
    gl & t
    bc

    BRIAN CRICK 11/09/18 5:27 PM Reply


    • cheers Brian. Yep always reassuring when I see Nick agree with me haha. I try my best not to read any comments before i’ve made my tipping mind up, so plenty of logic for why it can mean double trouble for the bookies haha. On we go. I’ll kick on one day!!

      Josh 11/09/18 5:33 PM Reply


  • blimey …. well done .. mark is at it now .. thats the double up then 🙂
    easy this game 🙂

    well done mark ( long call) once again .. nice price on the exchanges aswell 🙂

    bc .. feeling very happy 🙂

    BRIAN CRICK 11/09/18 5:30 PM Reply


    • Thanks Brian, glad you were on. Yes, Josh and Nick did well once again, wish I had done the double like you! Have a good evening.

      Mark Curtis 11/09/18 5:58 PM Reply


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