Members Daily Post: 09/09/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

York 

1.50 – Pickets Charge (miro going IF Good to Firm- officially good to soft/good in places) w2 w1 14,30 H3  11/1 

 

JUMPS

Fontwell

3.05 – 

Code of Law (all hncps) ES+  13/2 S3A 

Winner Massagot (hncp chase + m dist) 5/2 

3.35 – 

Novis Adventus (all hncps + hncp hurdle+ m TJC) ES+ H1 I1 G1 15/8 S3A# S4

Poetic Lady (all hncps + hncp h + m TJC) ES+ I3 G3 8/1 S3A# . S1+S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

Mellow Ben (m age) H3 I3 8/1 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

4.40 – 

Cinevator (hncp chase) 25/1 S2A 

Ulva Ferry (m age) 11/1 S2

 

Irish Bonus Stats

4.50 –

Draycott Place (hncp chase) 20/1 S2A

Kylecrue (hncp chase) 12/1 S2 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 23/242,81p, +10.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +150.5)

 

Daily Tips

1.50 York – Pickets Charge – 1 point win – 12/1 (SkyB/WH/PP/BetfS) 11/1 (gen)

5.00 York- Wahoo – 1 point win – 7/1 (bet365/BetB) 13/2 (gen) 

That will be all for tips, 09.32…write ups…

Pickets Charge…doesn’t now technically qualify on the angle in section one after rain yesterday but I still think his price is too big here and thought he had every chance of running a big race. It looks like the ground is on the softer side of good and with no more rain forecast hopefully it’s not a problem. Any cut is a question for plenty in here inc this one but such was his price/his form/Ellison’s form and that of the jockeys, I thought he was worth chancing. He’s yet to prove he can’t handle it. It could be that tapeta has been the reason for the resurgence on his last three starts but it has coincided with the cheep-pieces being applied and it could be that’s more relevant. He’s won/ran well on turf and he now seems to be improving in Ellison’s care. He did bolt up the last day and while he takes a step up in class this doesn’t look the strongest C4 and in any case he hasn’t run in one with CP on, nor under Ellison. He does just look to be a better horse. He races on the pace and stays further. If handling the ground I’d like to think he will be bang there against these and his price looked a shade too big. He may well even drift out further. Ellison, like his horse, is in fine form… 7/26,14p in the last 14 days. He’s booked a very good apprentice here, one of the best in the race. Clifford Lee is riding well, 5/20,10p in the last 14 days. The horses only went up 2lb for that last win, which could turn out to be lenient. We shall see. But there was enough there at double figures for me to be tempted in. 

Wahoo…there was a non runner and 20p R4 applied as I was staring at him/this race, so 7s or so is in line with the price I was looking at before that. I thought he was the one to beat in this to my eye. He arrives in fine form and seems best with a few weeks between his races. He doesn’t really know how to run a bad race and has relished the softened turf at both Doncaster and then Haydock (there was some rain before/during the race) According to his trainer the turf had too much jar in it at Newmarket, hence the poor run. This horse runs on the pace and has showed a very willing attitude in a finish, and that will take him far. He seems to stay further also which may be no bad thing here as it could be a case of him tracking a fast pace, rather than leading today, and out-staying/battling them. Many of his races have produced subsequent winners inc the horse he beat LTO who won on his next start. He ran with credit in a decent 2YO race at Newmarket at the back end of last season and a big field clearly isn’t a problem for him. He’s only one of three class winners in the race in handicaps and the other two have yet to win over the distance from a few starts. The trainer is in decent enough form, 6/29,15p in the last 14 days and the trainer/jockey do well here…3/13,8p in the last year. Dods is 4/17,9p with 3 year olds in handicaps at the track in recent years, 3/20,10p in all 6f handicaps here and 4/23,10p in class 3 handicaps. I thought he looked solid here and 8.5/1 or so, when the fav was still in, looked rather generous and 7s/13/2 could now still under-estimate him. I’d be surprised if he was too far away here.  

 

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Not a great day for my tips but a couple of nice winners from those I tipped on their last start at 10/1s and 7s or so! Brilliant. Since highlighting the record of my losing tips on their next star a few days back on the 5th, I think they’re 3/9, +19.5, +10.5 SP. Taking the total since last October time to 643 bets / 70 wins / +305.5 points early/bog / +67.5 SP. A bit silly really. There is logic why they should do that but I can’t say I was close to tipping Saturday’s two. One’s price had gone a bit by the time I looked, to my value eyes anyway, and the other was up two classes having come 3rd, but clung on by a neck, opened at 10s and sent off at 9/2, the rain did come. Damn. My recent tips won’t always do so well on their next start and given the win% sr there will be some hefty losing runs but that profit pile is rather substantial and if you wanted a systematic approach to my losing tips, to keep on eye on, backing on their next run after losing may be the way, while possibly being more selective on the rest. As ever thanks to Mike for tracking/posting. I’ll nail this game one day and tip some more of them! 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

3.05 Font – Millie Nautique 

Autumn Trainers

C Longsdon (8/1< best) 

4.40 Font – Midnight Gem

5.10 Font – Cardigan Bay 

 

E Lavelle

2.00 Font – Lady Markby 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

York ‘through the card’ thoughts to follow…these will be brief…

1.50 – Pickets Charge / Lagenda (track side EW at a big big price) 

2.20 – Thomas Cranmer / Andok 

2.55 – hmmm… if ground is testing enough a Q for fav, Just Another Bottle or Kimberella for an upset…

3.25 – Woven

4.00 – Winter Lion 

4.30 – Baldwin 

5.00- Wahoo

Bar the two tipping races i haven’t spent that long on those above, so prob best not taking them too seriously, we shall see! 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

22 Comments

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  • Reminder to have a look through the York card please, only if you have the time and it isn’t too much bother 🙂

    Steveindisguise 08/09/18 6:35 PM Reply


    • some brief thoughts above Steve, to add to your own! That was fairly rushed bar the two tipping races but fingers crossed a couple of winners there somewhere, time will tell! Don’t just stick to those though. Have fun.

      Josh 09/09/18 10:04 AM Reply


      • Thank you, much appreciated.

        Steveindisguise 09/09/18 10:46 AM Reply


  • a fun patent at York 50p ew , enhanced places with skybet
    1-50. Pickets Charge 10-1
    2-20. Framley Garth 20-1
    4-00. Ingleby Hollow 14-1

    martin whittle 09/09/18 8:21 AM Reply


  • Morning Josh
    There are a couple of Bonus stat runners at Listowel
    4.50 – Draycott Place and Kylecrue (both HcCh)
    Mike

    Titus 09/09/18 8:37 AM Reply


    • Thanks Mike, yep forgot to look at that card.
      If possible…is there any chance you can email me tomorrow’s S1 quals at some point..i’m out soon prob through to early hours of Monday morning, but no worries if not! 🙂
      thanks, Josh

      Josh 09/09/18 10:05 AM Reply


      • ok

        Titus 09/09/18 11:05 AM Reply


  • Novis Adventus NR

    chrisrees 09/09/18 8:59 AM Reply


    • ..as is Poetic Lady 335.

      chrisrees 09/09/18 9:05 AM Reply


  • Lady In Question York 13:55 1pt e/w 15/2
    Soldiers Minute York 17:00 1pt e/w 20/1

    I’ll try and get some write ups done in a bit

    Nick Mazur 09/09/18 9:05 AM Reply


    • Welcome back Nick,good holiday I hope.
      Andy

      Andy Ness 09/09/18 9:12 AM Reply


    • yep welcome back. Urgh I hate taking you on haha. Best of luck!

      Josh 09/09/18 10:30 AM Reply


    • Lady In Question York 13:55 1pt e/w-Tipped up 3 starts ago over course and distance when she finished 3rd. The 2nd that day has since won a listed race. I would ignore her start at Goodwood as she doesn’t stay a mile but last time out she chased home a horse who finished less than a length 2nd in the London mile Final at Kempton yesterday. She has ran well in both her York starts and barring the Goodwood run she really hasn’t ran a bad race all season. Her best form including both her wins are on ground with cut so today should suit better than most of her runs this season. I also like the fact that Oakley Brown still gets to claim 7 against other claimers a number of which who would normally be able to claim something don’t. Fahey had 3 winners yesterday and seems to be coming back into form. She is drawn well and likes to race prominently so should run into traffic.
      Soldiers Minute York 17:00 1pt e/w-Tipped up last time out where I was really disappointed with the run but I am willing to give him one more chance as potentially firm ground or the big weight might have been excuses. Four starts ago he was a 2 lengths 6th in what is one of the best 3yr old sprints of the season which has thrown up countless winners at class 2 level and below. He than ran over an unsuitable 5f twice. As a result of those 3 races he has been dropped 7lbs. Should be able to race prominently. Trainer won this 2 years ago with Dark Defender. Fanning comes over for just the one ride and he is 5/15, 8p when having just the one ride at a track for the trainer. Hopefully he makes it 3 on the spin for us given I have tipped up the winner in this in each of the past 2 years. His best runs last year were in September last year including a decent 4th in a Listed race behind the Guineas runner up so maybe he is more of an autumn horse. The fact that he has an Ayr Gold Cup entry clearly makes me think connections think highly of him and if he ran close to what he did 4 starts ago he should hose up.

      Nick Mazur 09/09/18 12:10 PM Reply


    • Two great shouts mate, thought Soldiers had it for a minute!!!!!

      Jim 09/09/18 5:06 PM Reply


  • Josh,
    Autumn Trainers
    Is LADY MARKBY 2.00 Fontwell a qualifier for Emma Lavelle?
    Cheers
    Andy

    Andy Ness 09/09/18 9:07 AM Reply


    • Yep, she is…sat there in my HRB account, just missed it. Cheers.

      Josh 09/09/18 10:07 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    F 2.20 – Midnight Gem on 2nd run @ 11
    L 4.50 – Conrad Hastings on 2nd run @ 9
    Festival
    Y 2.55 – Kimberella on 1st run @ 7
    Y 2.55 – Stormbringer on 2nd run @ 7
    Y 2.55 – Justanotherbottle on 3rd run @ 6
    GL

    Ken, I’ll add the roi to stats which will then show runs/wins/sr/bog/sp/roi for each ‘run’ but can’t do it by specific horse.
    Mike

    Titus 09/09/18 9:14 AM Reply


    • Thanks Mike. No problem with that. I know how time consuming these things can be.

      Ken McKenzie 09/09/18 11:46 AM Reply


  • NTF Summer Stunner action today.

    Listowel 4.50 – Kylecrue – currently around 11\1, some bookies paying 4 places.

    Meets all the four highlighted conditions.

    All the best of having a bet.

    Salman Ali 09/09/18 10:06 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    2.20 York Red Charmer BOG 20/1

    colin leafe 09/09/18 10:15 AM Reply


  • Thanks for looking at York, Josh. Along with those, Martin’s patent Nick and Colin’s tips it’s going to be a decent day**

    **carnage.

    Steveindisguise 09/09/18 10:20 AM Reply


  • Goodwood 4th September and Salisbury 6th September reviews
    Glance 7f Novice
    https://imgur.com/a/HL3MThK
    Glance – Good looking well made filly, should win again this season 77
    Sunday Star – Fraction less quality than the winner. Weaker gaskin. 75
    El Gumriyah – Longer type, bit weak in the mid section, did well from bad draw. 75
    Mot Juste – smallish, ok run from poor draw. 71
    Sh Boom – 67
    Bella Vita – ratty type but super fit. 60
    Octavia Minor – Plain common type 61
    Pempie – Loose in prelims, better than this. 73
    Confils – 66
    Summer Skies – small, ordinary, mysterious move in market 63
    Mum’s Hope – Small strong grey. 60
    Camelot Rakti – Bigger model, too tubular 60
    Trelinney – Bigger and stronger than many but not fit. 68
    Wish – Tiny and weakly made rat. 40

    Line Of Duty 1m Mdn
    Photo file : https://imgur.com/a/yn2q6zI
    Line Of Duty – Probably about 87 tough little chap.
    Pablo Escobarr – Strong boy, bit awkward at the back 86
    Allmankind 82
    Sir Ron Priestley – Bit less scope than the principals 80
    Le Don De Vie – Green and daft in prelims strong athletic type, should win soon. 81
    Dubai Icon – 78
    Keefer – heavily built, question as to whether rhe will be able to use his strength. 75
    Caplin – Ok stamp but a bit weak in the linkage, 3yo? 75
    Calculation – Good looking big strong chap. Looking anxious and not good in his coat. 80
    Tzar Nicholas – Smaller and weaker type 74

    Princess Power Nursery
    Photo File: https://imgur.com/a/61ru5qh
    Princess Power – Very well proportioned natural speedy type. 80
    Happy Odysey – 75
    Aim Power – 76
    Prairie Spy – Big strong type, looked to ned 7f 80
    Carrie’s Vision – 71
    Chonburi – 68
    Lively Lydia 65
    Shaffire – Ok not sure why she did not do better. 60 possibly better.

    It will probably be tomorrow before I get Salisbury finished.
    Hugh

    alpha2 09/09/18 4:23 PM Reply


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