Members Daily Post: 06/09/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Salisbury

2.50 – Chinese Alphabet (2YO) 14 33/1 

 

Haydock

3.40 – 

Zoffalee (all hncps+ m TJC) 30 ES+ 11/1 S3A 

Mon Beau Visage (m TJC) H3 I3 9/2 

Parys Mountain (m dist) H3 I3 9/1 

5.10 –

Thorntoun Care (all hncps) H3 G3 10/1 S5 

Mac O’Polo (4yo+ 5 yrs, all hncps) 30 ES+  9/1 S3A 

 

Carlisle

4.25 – 

Scrutiny (3yo+) H3 15/2 

Monsieur Jimmy (m age) w1 30 H1 I3 G3 4/1 S2 S4 

5.30 – Praxidice (2YO) 9/1 

6.00 – 

Royal Connoisseur (m class) 16/1 

Rasheeq (m class move) I1 6/1 S6 

7.00 – 

Forever A Lady (3yo+, + m dist) ES+ H1 I3 4/1 S2 S3A# 

Inglorious (3yo+, + m dist/age) ES+ G3 8/1 S3A 

Khelman (m class) 9/1 

7.30 – 

Savannah Moon (3yo+, + m class/age) G3 16/1 

 

JUMPS

Sedgefield

2.00 – 

Simply Lucky (m dist) H3 8/1 

Handy Hollow (m age) w1 14,30 4/1 

 

*

KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 23/237,81p, +15.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +154.5)

 

Daily Tips

4.30 Sedge – Rolling Maul – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen)

6.00 Carl – Giant Spark – 1 point win – 7/1 (WH/BetB/BV) 13/2 (gen)

that’s all for today, 09.06, write ups…

Rolling Maul… despite his age and his rather exposed profile I thought that on all known ‘been there and done it’ form, he was the one to beat in this, and as such 6s was a shade generous. I wouldn’t have been surprised to see him put in at around 4s in my view. Bowen is in superb form, 6/24,10p the last 14 days, 5/16,6p with Sean up in the last 30 days. They are 4/12 together here and Bowen generally does well at the track with those he does send… 5/19,7p the last 5 years, 3/8,4p in the last year. Last April the horse was coming a close second in a C2 24f handicap hurdle at Cheltenham, off 126. If he repeats that run, he wins. After that run he won a couple of races on the flat, one a C3, before having his sights raised into much better races where he was out-classed. This season he’s been running ok and arrives here hard fit. I suspect he needed his Worcester return but then ran well at Ffos Las where he was outpaced a tad, as he was again at Worcester. But he was running on in both. He’s since had two more spins on the flat over an inadequate trip but has run well. He won’t mind what the weather does and I suspect all of them will want some rain to take any sting out of the ground. The blinkers also return for the first time this season and he does like a change of headgear. Those spins on the flat and that switch may have revived him for this test. He’s only one of two horses in the races to have won over 26f+ and I thought he looked the strongest stayer in this line up. There are plenty of more lightly raced ones who ‘could’ improve for this distance, but they seem the right price and over these extreme trips i prefer proven stamina when looking at horses in single figure odds. Only him and Lord Ballim have won at C3 or above, and he’s the only C2 winner in the field. Nothing in here could do what he did in that Cheltenham run. Finally…pace…there are no habitual front runners in this and given many are stepping into the stamina unknown, i’m not sure their jockeys will be aggressive. Sean has pushed the pace/made all with Rolling Maul before and I hope he tries to dictate and just gallops them into the ground. With any luck he won’t get outpaced over this trip!

Giant Spark… he looked like he may be about to stage a revival LTO. His jockey was last to move but he stayed on steadily when he got after him. That’s the first time for a while he’s been ‘running on’, certainly this season. He’s been going backwards for all his previous runs. He’s a massive unit of a horse and I doubt they like putting him under the pump too much when there’s no juice in the ground. Dropped a further 2lb this is his second run in a C5 handicap for a while, having not run at this level for some time before LTO and he’s going to bolt up at some point in the coming weeks I think. 5 starts back he was OR 82, three starts back OR77… the handicapper has been very generous in a short space of time. Two starts ago he returned after a wind-op, having had 85 days off. That was a very hot race, with plenty of subsequent winners. His last run was in a decent race for the grade also and on his 3rd run after the op, he could be hitting optimum fitness here. He’s also now running at a time when the yard has been going well, unlike earlier in the season. 10/54,20p in the last 30 days, which is no mean feat when you generally train sprinters and the luck needed with those. 3/16,5p the last 14 days. 3/12,4p with G Lee in the last 30 days.  He also does well with his handicappers here, 6/29,10p in the last 5 years. The ground has some soft in it, but maybe not too much as I write. I won’t be using that as an excuse but hopefully the forecast rain materialises as he’s one of only two in here with winning form on soft. His last win was in October 16 at Navan off 89. Clearly if he gets back to those heights he would win this. Since then, up until 3 starts back, he’d been running in C3s and C2s, where he’s now 9/0,0p. C4/5 appears to be his level and he’s one to watch. Clearly I expect him to go close today but he should be winning again before too long. He’s fairly consistent at his level, 4/13,6p in turf handicaps C4 and below. Fingers crossed he can add to that. If the money does come then even better as he’s 4/7,5p when sent off 4s or shorter in handicaps.

Of the rest…

There were two others I deliberated on… Scrutiny in the 4.25 Carlisle…in the end I decided 7s wasn’t big enough given the type of race/jockeys but he does drop in class here and would go very close if this is soft come race time, or even GS all over may be fine. He’s desperate for soft. He races prominently and looked interesting but the 31 days off niggled me and Ryan hasn’t been firing all year. He’s ticking along ok but is 4/31 the last 14 days. I talked myself out of a full tipping point but may have change on just in case. His form ties in with Monsieur Jimmy and they shouldn’t be far away from each other and he should go close also for the strategies.

Royal Connoisseur..who also runs in the 6pm Carlisle. I will have a 1/4 point at BFSP just in case this turns soft as him and the selection are the only two with winning form on the surface and he hasn’t raced over 6f on soft for a while, and those are his conditions on turf. With wins at Hamilton I suspect he may enjoy this track also. He was very poor LTO however, having won before that, and Fahey isn’t exactly firing. And it may not go soft enough for him. The 38 day break niggled at me also, esp given how poor he was LTO. I wonder if he’s had a problem. We shall see. We have Rasheeq for S6 also who needs to bounce back to form.

I should add…Chinese Alphabet… he may be worth a small EW wager for interest in the 2.50. He hits my first time out stats for Knight as per section 1, who’s yard are in form. He’s 3/6 with 1st 2Yo at the track in the last 5 years, with winners at 9s, 25s and 12s. They’re probably all worth a bet until he retires as a handful will no doubt go in again. That’s all we have to go on really, so not one to go mad on, but I had a rare EW nibble at 33s just in case! There are two shorties to beat from big yards. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

6.00 Carl- Fard

Top of the Class

5.30 Carl – Praxidice

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

UPDATE: I’ve updated the research link in the key and added the below, relating to the Test Zone… what with the 2017 section that’s below that, I think that’s all the stats behind everything posted in the test zone for now. 

NEW! 2018 Micro Systems: Test Zone (Section 3 of Members’ Posts)

Roger Fell, James Doyle, Handicap Chase System (starting points): Read Report HERE>>>

Top of the Class: Read Report HERE>>>

Autumn Trainers: Read Report HERE>>>

*

 

Blessed To Empress

My foray into ownership couldn’t have gone much better with the White Diamond syndicates so far, and i’m sure i’ll come back down with a bump at some point. But the two horses I’ve shares in have now won 4 races between them and this one is responsible for 3 of those, with the other now looking open to any amount of progress. Blessed runs again on Thursday, back to her fav course in the last race at Chelmsford. I’ll be trekking down and meeting up with fellow Member Doug, who I persuaded to buy a share. It will be a great night, whatever she does. Having looked at the race I think she’s the one to beat, and she’s been put in at 4s in places! I’d better see what change is down the side of the couch again, ahem. I’ll be reinvesting some of the winnings from the last two winners but I won’t go mad, which I fear I may have done on Super at Worcester. But, you have to trust your eye and that’s the best i’d seen her. With any luck Blessed will look her usual self. Amy prepares them for race day very well and they usually look a picture in their skin. Hopefully she behaves herself and walks in the stalls again. She will need some luck from that draw but should be able to get out and get a position. A couple of these stay/want further, so there should be some pace to track. She can make all if required. Everything else has a question or two against race conditions, whereas she doesn’t. The Archie Watson horse looks interesting and the market may guide. Could be anything I suppose and this is a moderate level. I don’t know if this is Blessed’s ceiling and maybe something will be better treated. She certainly won’t have much in hand if she does win again. In any case, I expect a big run and if she behaves, breaks and settles will be disappointed if she’s not thereabouts. But, she owes us nothing and has been great fun. Her three wins have been at 8s>4s, 16s and 6s>10/3, which is an added bonus 🙂

This weekend…i’m heading down to Chelmsford from Liverpool to watch her. I was down in London on Sunday anyway to watch the Arctic Monkeys and it makes sense for me to stay down in London with friends. None of that concerns you of course and you won’t notice much difference from normal. Friday will be a normal work day, as will Sat morning. Friday’s post will be up asap, it may be a case of me completing it with ratings pointers when I get back late to the hotel, should be by midnight. But Doug’s promised curry and beers, so who knows. Monday’s post may be up first thing Monday morning.

*

Re-cap… 

Ah, a frustrating day and a few learning points…maybe diving in with exposed horses at C6 level isn’t the best punting strategy, despite the positives on paper. I appear to have picked the only Carroll horse not to win on Wednesday! The jumper was poor and they look to have their work cut out with that one. I’ll keep an eye on him. Part of the reasoning for both was just how poor the oppo were and on reflection that should have tipped me over the edge with Dotties Dilemma who was a decent price at 15/2 in the morning. He had a big weight and was a career high mark but importantly hadn’t proved that he couldn’t cope with both and in that situation you want a price. All the rest had far more searching questions to answer, with many having fitness and stamina questions, and general well being. The right horse chased him home but I knew he’d be held up and was worth taking on reverting from hurdles.

Anyway, I got that wrong. However, at least he won for the jumps ‘in form’ horses. A quick re-cap on those results is below. Fingers crossed that turns into a decent long term strategy. Early indications are positive. Some caution as it’s generally operated over the summer months on decent ground where the quality of horses isn’t great and LTO winners/won two starts back, may just perform better. I’m thinking aloud there and it’s always wise to be cautious. BUT, the logic makes sense… the horse won LTO, is in form, and their trainer has decided to send them to a track they do well at (hence qualifying against my section 1 stats packs). I can’t think why it wouldn’t keep performing.

With any luck Jumps S1, S2A, S3A# and now w1 (and poss w2) will turn out to be a decent jumps portfolio. S4 and S5 are on the naughty step in my book and may need to be moved into the ‘to be monitored’ pile again.

So, Jumps Section 1 qualifier, won LTO (w1) or two starts ago (w2)

from 12th Feb 2018 (when I had the idea/started monitoring) to 26th Aug 2018…

Jumps w1: 31/102,37p, +40.25

Jumps w2: 15/80,27p, +29.6

Total: 182 bets / 46 wins / 64 wins|places / +69.85 (early/bog)

I’ll update those again early next week, and Dotties +8 will have helped.

*

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Curry and beers it is! Looking forward to it immensely! See you tomorrow Josh!!

    dougandnicky 05/09/18 8:33 PM Reply


    • Good luck at Chelmsford. I would have come down to watch and drink but I have something on that I cannot cancel at short notice.

      martin colwell 06/09/18 9:57 AM Reply


  • Minelli 10/1 winner at Wolves tonight gives us 5pts profit.

    Chelmsford tomorrow. Qualifiers below:
    6.10 Duke of Yorkie 7/1
    7.15 Tight Lines 4/1
    8.45 Kraka 9/1

    1pt win each.

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 05/09/18 9:16 PM Reply


  • More NTF Summer Stunner action tomorrow.

    This time the turn of Ever So Much. 4/4 on favoured conditions.

    Sedgefield 4.00 – Ever So Much – Currently trading at 6’s.

    Salman Ali 05/09/18 10:03 PM Reply


    • Thanks Salman, personally I think he’s better at hexham myself but will keep an eye on him, good luck!

      general6969 06/09/18 7:18 AM Reply


      • You have to go back four years to find a win for ESM off of this same mark, (never won off a higher mark), and AP McCoy was up that day. So might just swerve this one, but it’s a small field and strange things do happen in small fields.

        Tim 06/09/18 12:05 PM Reply


  • one of the biggest loss makers runs today , Azalia was bought as a yearling for £160,000 and sold on for £880. soundly beaten on her only start at Wolves a couple of weeks ago they try a tongue strap today in the 2-10 Haydock, made me think what the sellers would think if she bolted up so couldn’t resist £2 @ 1000-1 🙂

    martin whittle 06/09/18 7:45 AM Reply


    • if my maths is right that’s a 99.6% loss !

      martin whittle 06/09/18 7:55 AM Reply


    • So that you are not the only £2 mug at 1,000 I have had a go as well.

      Drinks on me if it goes in.

      martin colwell 06/09/18 10:01 AM Reply


      • Finished last,51 lengths behind the second last.
        Should be able to buy the horse for £2 now

        Andy Edwards 06/09/18 2:45 PM Reply


    • Martin W
      Azalia ran like a 1000/1 shot I’m afraid.

      Mike

      mickeydee 06/09/18 2:25 PM Reply


  • edit button 99.4 % 🙂 and i’m normally pretty good at math

    martin whittle 06/09/18 7:57 AM Reply


  • Assuming the purchase price wasn’t in the customary guineas!

    David Wilson 06/09/18 9:32 AM Reply


    • You would expect to pay at least twice that amount for a decent hacking horse so there must have been something seriously wrong with it IMHO. 999/1 may seem like big odds but I’m not sure there’s any value in it.

      Surely if you can afford £160,000 for a horse you can afford to have it scoped. Still… you never know. I wish you luck with your outrageous punt!

      Tim

      Tim 06/09/18 11:17 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    S 4.50 – Poets Vanity on 3rd run @ 7/2
    C 7.00 – Wedidodontwe on 1st run @ 40 (poss e/w)
    C 7.30 – Savannah Moon on 1srt run @ 16
    Over 3 runs
    Daily
    S 1.50 – Hedging on 5th run @ 16
    C 6.00 – Rasheeq on 10th run @ 6
    C 7.00 – Ventura Secret on 6th run @ 9/2
    GL Mike

    Titus 06/09/18 9:59 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Salisbury
    1.50 The Grove BOG 11/4
    Sedgefield
    3.30 High Expectations BOG 7/4
    Haydock
    3.40 Mon Beau Visage BOG 9/2
    4.40 Mukhayyam BOG 11/1
    5.10 Mutellie BOG 11/8

    colin leafe 06/09/18 10:18 AM Reply


  • Chris M Selections:
    Sedgefield:
    15:30 – Apterix (7/2 gen)
    15:30 – Parthenius (4/1 gen)

    Quiet day for me, started with a decent sized shortlist but just could not back a lot of them after further analysis. I am going to have a small reverse forecast on the two bets above for some extra interest.

    Good luck with your bets 🙂

    Chris M 06/09/18 10:24 AM Reply


  • There was curry and beer and…..fourth x

    dougandnicky 07/09/18 2:11 AM Reply


Post A Reply