Members Daily Post: 04/09/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Goodwood

4.10 – 

Soldier In Action (all hncps/3yo+) H3 I3 G3 11/4 S4 S5  WON 11/4 

Austrian School (all hncps/3yo+)  H1 I1 7/4 S1 2nd 6/4 

Blue Rambler (micro runs) 50/1 UP

 

Leicester

None. 

 

JUMPS

Stratford

3.20 – Collodi (hncp hurdle + m dist) w1 14 H3 I1 G1 7/2  S4 UP

3.55 – Wells De Lune (hncp chase + m TJC) H1 I1 13/8 UP 

5.05 – 

Kristal Hart (hncp hurdle) 14 G3 16/1 S1 S2A  WON 16/1>33/1 (BFSP 56.00) very lucky winner, but all evens out over time, would have been 3rd I suspect, thankfully the faller got up, Twister’s was hampered. Still, will take that! A fun 10 minutes. 

Shadow’s Girls (m class) 33/1 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 22/233,80p, +4.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +154.5)

 

Daily Tips

4.55 Leic – Twilight – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) WON 14/1>11/1 

5.55 Leic – Biotic – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen) UP 6/1>5/1

that’s all for tips, 09.22… write ups…

 

Twilight…i’m scratching my head as to why this one is 14s, given that if you ignored his last run and he arrived on the back of that Catterick win, he’d surely be half this price or shorter. He was a tad lit up the last day but given it was his first run on soft, i’m happy to forgive him that run. He’s back in trip here, back on GF, back into a 3YO only handicap and David Allan gets a go. There’s a small chance the headgear only worked the once,when winning, and it’s effects will have worn off, but he wasn’t exactly recalcitrant before they were applied and certainly just looked a case of just sharpening him up. He has some of the best ‘hot form’ in this race, with most of his recent runs producing winners/placed horses, adding plenty of depth to his form- certainly for this level. 13 horses have run since his winning race two starts ago, 4 have won and a further 3 have placed. The 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th have all won again suggesting it was a decent enough race for the grade. If he got back to the form of that win and the two runs before (and i’m banking on the return to GF/class 6 as the reason for why he might) then he is no 14s shot here and he won’t be far away. With 4 places to aim at he’s probably a solid EW bet. There is a lack of pace on paper here which is a niggle but hopefully the stiff track and his suitability to conditions helps him overcome that. He can race handily and I don’t think you want to be held up too far back here. He did benefit from a pace burn-up for his win, but this stiff track over the straight 7f could be ideal for him. He’s the only horse to have won a handicap on good to firm and one of only five proven over the distance. Plenty in here have many more searching questions to answer. Popsicle is a LTO winner but has to come and prove it on turf and on a straight/more galloping track. Affluence should run well but has yet to win and is short enough in that context, but those two do look the main dangers. In any case, if Twilight repeats that Catterick run, he’s the one to beat here. 14s just looks silly to my eyes.

Biotic… I thought he was the one to beat in this and thought 6s was a couple of points too big. I wouldn’t have him a bigger price than the Stoute horse and you’d think one of the top three in the market is taking this (famous last words), with the selection looking the most solid. He is 1lb higher than is highest winning mark but that win, on the AW, was a procession where he hacked up. He looks to be in the form of his life here, the races he’s run in have produced horses that have ran well since, and two starts back won carrying 12-2 – that takes some doing. Last time out he ran well but the ground went against him after 9mm of rain and he failed to fully pick up, but stayed on well. The front two didn’t come back there either. He’s a CD winner and gets the services of Jamie Spencer. No disrespect to Patrick Millman but that’s probably a 10lb+ upgrade. Again he’s usually held up in a race without loads of pace on here, but he’s won in smaller fields recently and i’m going to have to trust Jamie to keep him in the right spot/to get after him soon enough. He’s ridden this track as well as anyone in the last year, 5/17, 7p and is in the form of his life…10/36,14p. The trainer had a double yesterday and they’re going well. The top two have questions to answer and their prices don’t look overly generous. The Hills horse was in the right place LTO, tracking a lone front runner and just getting up. He only ever appears to do enough and while he may be getting better with experience, didn’t look the most straightforward, but he battled well enough. There’s a chance he gets loose on the front here which would be a concern but I don’t think his form, as yet, compares to the selections. The Stoute horse has been too keen the last twice and hasn’t got home, showing some inexperience. If he settles and finishes off his race then he’d be a danger, but that’s the question he has to overcome. On recent form, I thought the selection was the one they all had to beat, and as such his price was generous enough.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

5.55 Leic – Two For Two 14/1

7.25 Leic – Fisher Green 13/2

Top of the Class

3.05 Good – Caplin 66/1 / Sir Ron Priestley 7/1

3.40 Good-  Prairie Spy 12/1

4.10 Good – Austrian School 7/4 / Soldier In Action 11/4

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

My Losing Tips…

Just a note to draw your attention to Mike’s daily posts in the comments, where he tracks my losing tips (daily tips/Festival tips from section 2 above, + my tips from free posts, mainly 3m+ hncp chases). It would appear i’m rather premature with plenty of them, as you can see from the results below. I know Mike and a few others back them systematically and while I don’t do that as yet, clearly they’re all worth a second glance for a few runs after I’ve tipped them. Given my approach across the three different tipping elements there is plenty of logic for why enough of them would show their true colours a few starts after I’ve tipped them, and they’ve lost. Any such tip could be in form / well handicapped/unexposed/hot form element/suited to a Festival type race / etc …all reasons for why they could show winning form soon enough, if they so happen to lose when I tip them- which is most of them! Many may run in similar conditions on their next few starts, or indeed being doing something different which unlocks more. For the Festival tips.. well if i’ve deemed them in with a chance in a competitive class 2 and they fluff their lines, it makes sense that they may show up well again when running in a similar race not long after, or indeed if dropped in class say – if i’ve done my job right on the initial selection. Plenty of ‘jumps festival’ tips, esp Cheltenham say, may end up running at Aintree/Punch/Galway etc, or a big Sat handicap, and show up well.

Indeed, since 3rd Oct 2017 as below, if you’d have backed every one of my losing tips just on their next start…

634 bets / 67 wins / +286 bog/early morn odds / +57 SP 

The full results, as per Mikes comments in recent days, are below. It’s something for me to absorb and try and use moving forward. I need to get in the habit of tipping a few more of them where possible, albeit I doubt i’d do better than a systematic approach – but it’s a lot of bets and i’m anxious about a systematic approach with them – but the results look rather good. Anyway, as always, that’s just info to absorb/ignore as you please. My thanks to Mike for tracking and posting them all, as it’s not something i’m able to keep on top of at the moment.

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Results for all my losing tips, as recorded by Mike, from 3rd Oct 2017 to 2nd Sept 2018…

Josh’s Tips p/l figs up to 2/9 inc. (tip lost, tracked for subsequent runs as below, stop at a winner)

Daily Tips (members/section 2)
345 x 1st run, 42 x win @ 12.2% sr, bog + 98.3, sp – 13.75
310 x 2nd run, 34 x win @ 11% sr, bog + 15.5, sp – 54
195 x 3rd run, 20 x win @ 10.3% sr, bog + 57.35, sp + 33.85
108 x 4th run, 18 x win @ 16.7% sr, bog + 12.5, sp – 19
34 x 5th run, 13 x win @ 38.2% sr, bog + 56.5, sp + 37.5
21 x 6th run, 5 x win @ 23.8% sr, bog + 39, sp + 32.5
13 x 7th run, 2 x win @ 15.4% sr, bog + 17, sp + 12.5
13 x 8th run, 4 x win @ 30.8% sr, bog + 54, sp + 44
5 x 9th run, 0 x win, – 5
4 x 10th run, 0 x win – 5

Festival Tips (members/section 2)
152 x 1st run, 14 x win @ 9.2% sr, bog +145.75, sp + 77
57 x 2nd run, 12 x win @ 21% sr, bog + 20, sp + 6.45
25 x 3rd run, 1 x win @ 4% sr, bog – 15.5, sp – 16
8 x 4th run, 1 win @ 12.5% sr, bog + 5, sp + 2
5 x 5th run, 0 x win – 5
3 x 6th run, 2 x win @ 66.7% sr, bog + 16, sp + 8.5

3m+ (chase tips/free posts)
134 x 1st run, 11 x win @ 8.2% sr, bog + 42, sp – 6
22 x 2nd run, 7 x win @ 31.8% sr, bog + 43.75, sp + 32
6 x 3rd run, 1 x win @ 16.7% sr, bog + 1, sp – 1
3 x 4th run, 0 x win, – 3
3 x 5th run, 1 x win @ 33.3% sr, bog + 12, sp + 9
1 x 6th run, 0 x win, – 1

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

31 Comments

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  • U.S. Racing Tip – Saratoga race 9, 10.02 UK time, Protected 1 point win, circa 4/1. If non runner no bet today.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 03/09/18 5:30 PM Reply


    • The selection was a loser.

      martin colwell 04/09/18 9:14 AM Reply


  • No joy at Newcastle today so with 1 NR that’s -2pts.

    Kempton tomorrow. Qualifiers below:
    6.15 Alaba Del Sole 7/1
    6.45 Dark Side Dream 4/1
    8.15 Kasbah 9/2
    8.45 Lyford 14/1 & Howardian Hills 7/1

    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 03/09/18 7:38 PM Reply


    • Good start Ken!

      neilmck 04/09/18 7:27 PM Reply


  • on a day of racing where there is not much value about i’m going to take on Wells De Lune in the 3-55 Stratford, he’s lugging around 12st 2lb and has had a busy summer. Dream Bolt has raced only once this year showing nothing but did win at Stratford last year on good ground( C2) even though he would probably like a bit more give in the ground but at 18-1 with Sky paying 3 places i’m willing to chance he can rediscover some of last years form dropping to 10st 9lb and a C3 with Scudamore on board.

    martin whittle 04/09/18 7:25 AM Reply


  • can’t be coincidence , i just so happened i was doing my emails when sp2a came through went straight on to back got 18,s and 14’s,then 2 minutes later went to put on a silly 25p ew patent with my selection now 14’s and 10’s.

    martin whittle 04/09/18 8:30 AM Reply


    • I walked around to Betfred and got 20/1 no bother in the shop and 14/1 no bother either no BOG .8.07 on my slips

      Pendo 04/09/18 9:38 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Over 3 runs
    Daily
    G 2.00 – Vincents Forever on 4th run @ 16
    S 2.50 – Phoenix Rock on 6th run @ 9
    S 3.55 – Coeur Tantre on 7th run @ 5
    S 5.05 – Visage Blanc on 5th run @ 12
    L 7.25 – Fisher Green on 4th run @ 13/2
    K 8.45 – Epsom Secret on 9th run @ 22
    GL Mike

    Titus 04/09/18 8:55 AM Reply


    • Thanks Mike for the daily tip selections. Question from me regarding getting your figures, to get the figures, did you have to note each horse then look at its results afterwards? just curious how you got the data?

      general6969 04/09/18 10:23 AM Reply


      • Hi Paul… all those horses listed by Mike are my recent tips that lost… he’s been tracking, for a year or so now, my losing daily tips (section 2), losing Festival Tips (section 2) and my 3m+ chase tips (free post)… the results are recorded at ‘stop at a winner’ (assuming they didn’t win when tipped, which is most of them!) for X amount of runs post me tipping them. In general he’s focused on them for 3 runs after being tipped, but as with today’s, all those above are after 3 runs, as detailed.. so Vincents Forever is having his 4th start after i tipped him, and he’s still to win since he was tipped. You can see from the results yesterday posted in the comments how they’ve done, and i’m just about to add them to the post above/discuss.
        Hope that answers your question, unless you were getting at something else. in essence for them to appear in Mike’s list, i’ll have tipped them at some point. I seem to have the habit of tipping many horses a few starts before I should! And there is plenty of logic for why many of them should be going close soon enough. Mike’s been a star in tracking them all as it isn’t something i’ve been able to keep on top of as yet, what with everything else going on etc. Josh

        Josh 04/09/18 10:29 AM Reply


        • Did these results get off to a slow start last year? I’m just thinking there is a logic why it works for the majority of the year as Josh has identified but at the start of a jumps/flat season surely there are a lot of different variables that may have changed since they were tipped the previous season by Josh ie. ground, time off the track, change of trainer etc.

          Chris Sengelow 04/09/18 10:54 AM Reply


          • possibly, i don’t think Mike’s tracking that and it would be too much effort to do so… has to be a case of looking at a horse by horse basis I think, and just looking at those over price X may not be a bad way in. But yep logically, a horse running after a season’s break would ask questions..but if part of reason for original tip was well handicapped/or unexposed/ hot form etc, if that was only a few runs ago, the logic still holds even if they’ve had a break in between. Just a case of fitness then, or whether progressed/regressed/their age. I think ‘runs since tipped’ may be more important than time, but again such thoughts are why systematic approach raises questions. Should be very few concerns on that front when it comes to their next run though!

            Josh 04/09/18 11:04 AM Reply


          • Or do the selections just get scratched at the end of a season and then just start again?

            Chris Sengelow 04/09/18 11:05 AM Reply


            • Hi General
              I started backing them sytematically in Feb this year after I’d backed many that I’d spotted when going through the cards. I wasn’t looking for them, it was more a case of remembering them as a Josh bet. The returns made me take note so I went back to the start of the jumps ’17 and put all his tips into a tracker after going through every runner. I’d backed them all when tipped anyway and always record the sp for all bets I do but had to back check for some of the subsequent runs.

              Hi Chris,
              I’m not able to answer the question but will agree that the variables will differ for each runner over time and will run into next season if not won ( there were jumps winners last week that haven’t run since Mar/Apr). Your question raises something else I’ve been thinking about. I use the same bank for flat and jumps and the figures are for both together. I obviously know when I place the bet but up to now I’ve lumped them together and have no split record. Something I’ll do when I’ve got a few hours spare.
              Mike

              Titus 04/09/18 2:19 PM Reply


              • thanks guys, great efforts all and thanks for answering the questions.

                general6969 04/09/18 3:39 PM Reply


  • Chris M Selections:
    Poor day of racing, can only find short priced runners and with the prices I just can’t back them. So it will be a no bet day for me.

    Good luck with your bets today 🙂

    Chris M 04/09/18 9:33 AM Reply


  • The top jockeys head off to Goodwood today with the exception of Jim Crowley and Jamie Spencer, who head off to Leicester. Mark Johnston, although a bit out of form goes well at Goodwood. In the 4.10 his Soldier In Action, which I like today, takes on his own Austrian School, who at last goes up to two miles. In the 3.05 Sir Ron Priestley may go well at a reasonable price?
    The in form Oisin Murphy and SDS go on from Goodwood to the evening meeting at Kempton. They both have a number of rides and nothing specific in my eyes. No doubt Murphy will be followed by punters based upon current form. Gavin Cromwell sends over a runner in the 6.45, Gunmaker. The 5/1 looks a bit skinny in a tight handicap but if the horse is ahead of its mark it may seem a steal? Sir Michael has a runner in the 5.55, Tahreek, with Jim Crowley up.
    The jumps meeting at Stratford looks competitive. Richard Johnson has only one ride, for Greatrex, in the 2.50 on Smoking Dixie.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 04/09/18 9:57 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    2.00 Goodwood Zoffany Bay BOG 7/4

    6.55 Leicester Peggie Sue BOG 7/4

    colin leafe 04/09/18 10:07 AM Reply


  • That break did the trick!!!! Great Shout!!!!

    JIM 04/09/18 5:00 PM Reply


  • Twilight.
    Easy easy josh ur back with a bang.

    mickeydee 04/09/18 5:01 PM Reply


  • Welcome back to the winners enclosure Josh! Get in.

    Mark Curtis 04/09/18 5:10 PM Reply


  • lovely winner@33s well done my man

    william 04/09/18 5:15 PM Reply


  • You made a good case with Twilight, Josh, and now Kristal Hart 33/1!

    chrisrees 04/09/18 5:16 PM Reply


  • Cream rises to the top Josh. Great pick, well done.
    Pat

    reillysmiley 04/09/18 5:16 PM Reply


  • 56.14 the BFSP on Kristal Hart. Had to double take when I saw my exchange account balance!

    Francis 04/09/18 5:16 PM Reply


    • bloody hell. Very lucky winner, but that’s jumps racing and thankfully all ok which is main thing. Will take that one given number of placed horses etc, and we will have a few last flight fallers in the months ahead when looking like winning. I’ll have to make do with my 33s! Hopefully my muggy EW double with the two tips may make up for that deficit, we shall see! 🙂 That’s the game with Jumps S1 and S2A, all about those monsters and they find enough over time.

      Josh 04/09/18 5:19 PM Reply


  • cheers gents, that was a fun 10 minutes or so. Sometimes they just jump out as being a silly price and that one did. On we go, hopefully can build on it.

    Josh 04/09/18 6:12 PM Reply


    • Thanks Josh, I was convinced by your logic on twilight and you nailed it mate.

      westy2 04/09/18 6:49 PM Reply


    • Well done sir! Thank you, crazy price indeed.

      Chris Murrell 04/09/18 9:20 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh, excellent day, thanks. Didn’t Krystal score for S2 as well as S2A?

    kevo19 04/09/18 10:06 PM Reply


    • Yep. S2A is just a subset of S2. Every s2a qualifier is in effect s2 also and in s2 results I include all s2A. I personally wouldn’t back them twice as such.

      Josh 04/09/18 11:11 PM Reply


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