Members Daily Post: 01/09/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Beverley 

3.20 – Musharrif (micro class/age) I3 15/2

4.30 – Areen Heart (m dist/age) H3 I3 G1 8/1 S2 S4 S6 

 

Sandown

1.50 – Bahamian Sunrise (m dist) G1 9/1 S6 

2.25 – Billesdon Bless (m class m) 16/1 

4.45 – Repton (class move) I3 14/1 

 

Chester

2.05 – Al Erayg (3yo+ hncps, m dist) (hncp debut) 33/1 

4.25 – 

Copper Knight (3yo+) I1 G3 14/1 S2 S6 

Confessional (3yo+) I3 12/1 

Bossipop (3yo+) 11/1 

Growl (m dist) H1 I3 5/2 S2 

Powerallied (m dist) w1 H3 I3 G1 4/1 S2 S4 

Venturous (m age) G3 16/1 

 

JUMPS

Newton Abbot 

2.30 – On Demand (m class/runs) I3 7/2 

3.40 – Tikkinthebox (hncp chase + m class move) w1 H3 I3 G1  3/1 S4 

4.15 – Majestic Touch (hncp h) (hncp hurdle) w1 G3 3/1 

5.25 – Starlit Night (m class) 33/1

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 22/233,80p, +4.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +154.5)

Daily Tips

None. I’ll be ‘back in the game’ next week sometime but will take the weekend off on the analysis front. I’m not missing any big handicaps on Sat. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

2.05 Chest- Muntadab 

5.00- Chest – Hawaam 

The Doyler

6.15 Chelm – On The Line 

Jumps

T Lacey 

3.05 NA – Equus Amadeus 

Autumn Trainers (NEW, report below) 

Longsdon (8/1< guide) 

2.30 NA – Barton Rose 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

NEW Report

The Jumps: Who to Follow this Autumn: READ HERE>>>

Do have a flick through. Covers Longsdon, NTD and Lavelle, inc some ‘notes’ at the end, inc how you can focus in on certain qualifiers. I’m anxious to advise following systematically but i’m fairly confident that as a portfolio they’ll do well but in any case should be very good ‘starting points’. Twister made us +45 points or so last Sept/Oct, hopefully he can repeat that and the other two can chip in. 

 

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Geegeez Speed…

NOTE. G1/G3.. has returned for the JUMPS, having had the summer off. This brings Strategy 1 back into play… any jumps qualifier that has a G1 or G3, is 10/1 or bigger on general morning price (qualifies at that point, or at a point you look the evening before) OR is sent off 11.00 or bigger BFSP (this covers the drifters) (that price can be set at any time you wish) All info relating to that strategy can be found within the various links in The Key above. Fingers crossed Jumps S1 can pick up having had an iffy 2018 to date. I’m not sure if that was down to the very bad weather we had or just how it goes. Again that is a low SR strategy and there will be long losing runs. 

The return of Geegeez Speed for jumps will also bring back Jumps S4 (which is on the naughty step) and should mean more S3A# qualifiers, of which we can keep an eye on. 

I’d hope that Jumps S1, S3A# and ‘in form’ horses (w1/w2) will be a decent Jumps portfolio, but time will tell. The latter two have done well over the summer months. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

24 Comments

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  • Josh,
    Will the Autumn Trainers qualifiers be posted on here,or I’m I better putting them in my HRB?
    Cheers
    Andy

    Andy Ness 31/08/18 8:06 PM Reply


    • Yep. Longsdon’s is in section 3 already 🙂 but if you have space then do save them also. Occasionally everything in my HRB accounts blurs into one! Josh

      Josh 31/08/18 8:26 PM Reply


  • U.S, racing Tip for Friday evening on the other Members post!!

    martin colwell 31/08/18 8:16 PM Reply


    • Cartoria just run out of it. Still 7.0 on BF for a place

      Malcolm Silkstone 31/08/18 10:07 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    August figures
    Bookmakers SP – 20.067 points
    BOG – 4.784 points
    August is normally a bumper month,not this year for whatever reason.

    colin leafe 31/08/18 8:30 PM Reply


    • Not entirely sure how I consistently seem to beat your BOG results. Being an accountant, perhaps it’s creative accounting?

      As I mentioned before, I dont touch anything under 3s (to my detriment today) and use the exchanges around lunchtime (if odds significantly better than bookies) but surprised that makes as much difference as my figures tell me, which reads +12 points in August.

      Anyway, I really appreciate the clear and concise posts and of course the quality of the selections. Really kind of you to share.

      Francis

      Francis 31/08/18 10:23 PM Reply


      • Hi Francis
        Possibly one reason for me to claim a price at BOG their must be at least two bookmakers showing the price,if only one will not claim that price.
        Little surprised that there was a 16 point difference but i am no accountant,delighted that you won in August i certainly did not.

        colin leafe 01/09/18 11:33 AM Reply


  • off to Lingfield Park tomorrow (saturday) for all weather racing and The Wombats live! any thoughts from our AW specialists would be appreciated,
    Matt

    thisisjonnoo 31/08/18 8:47 PM Reply


    • Good luck at Lingfield, take lots of money as everything there is expensive.

      I have had a go: 4.20 Buckland Beau – now he has won I am hpoing that he can go on; 4.55 Queen of Jumeirah – hopefully van b better than this lot; 5.30 Travelcard – a Mark Johnston runner and has not come for the expensive beer or to see The Wombats! 6.00 Luxford – May lead and hang on for something at a price? 7.00 Twister – Sir Mark did think a bit of this horse but he has not done it yet, 7.30 Special Mission – Sir Mark again. He needs a winner to pay for the cigars and brandy.

      Good luck and try to park on the tarmaced car park as cars sink on the grass opposite the course.

      martin colwell 01/09/18 11:45 AM Reply


      • Thanks Martin, hopefully there’s a few winners in there!

        thisisjonnoo 01/09/18 4:37 PM Reply


  • September jumps report – Hopefully the Lavelle angle works as her runners should go off at bigger prices than Twisters and likely Longsdons. It is always good to have trainers onside who are not popular to the masses as value is found there.
    Hendo had had a few winners lately as I have highlighted in my posts. They are not going off at big odds but he is up and running. However Paul Nicholls is yet to get going although it is early days. Anyone know if he has any good young horses that may help him have a challenging season? Who can challenge Hendo? Dan Skelton may well take second place off Nicholls this season?

    On the flat – Michael Dods seems to be going well lately. His horses go off decent prices. Archie’s Affaire was backed today down from 8/1 and won well and Mabs Cross almost landed a big one last week. I have been backing Karl Burke runners on the all weather and that has been profitable. Any other non jumps trainers to follow September and October?

    martin colwell 31/08/18 10:38 PM Reply


  • Only the one winner on the AW today for a 9pt loss which unfortunately means that August ends with a deficit of -7.69pts. Full update on Sunday.

    As I do each month I review the stats and make adjustments to my strategy. Like Chris M, I am always to reduce the number of tips without adversely affecting the profits.

    With 11 months of data, I now feel more confident in changing my strategy such that there will only be a maximum of one tip per race.

    With my current method, I always start off with two selections per race, then filter them based on various parameters. Over those 11 months, the first selections have contributed approx. 25% of the profits with second selections the other 75%. Going forward I will drop the first selection method and concentrate on the second selection.

    The profits may drop by around 25% but the ROI should increase. So if you want to maintain a similar level of profit, you might want to consider increasing your stake size by around 25%.

    I’ve thought long and hard about making this adjustment but overall I think it is for the best. It will reduce the daily outlay and should reduce the amount of losing days. We shall see.

    The AW seems to be going into overdrive tomorrow with 3 meetings at Wolves, Lingfield and Chelmsford, although I think one of these may be a re-located Bath fixture. Anyway, qualifiers below.

    Wolves
    1.45 Top Offer 8/1
    2.20 King Oswald 4/1
    3.30 Carnageo 4/1
    5.10 Be Perfect 9/1
    5.40 Spenny’s Lass 14/1

    Lingfield
    6.30 Tigerinmytank 9/1
    7.30 Morning Skye 8/1

    Chelmsford
    6.15 Rock Up In Style 5/1

    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 31/08/18 11:18 PM Reply


    • Ken, I was wondering y’day what your WSR has been over this period?
      Could you project what it might be, in future, and what the average SP might be?.
      Thanks.

      chrisrees 01/09/18 1:11 AM Reply


    • Looking forward to seeing the results Ken. I like you would rather wait until a larger set of results before tweaking anything too drastic. So the 11 months of information has given you a clear idea and it sounds like a good one. I’m running a few different tweaked versions of my method alongside my current one but we will see how they get on over time. Good luck 🙂

      Chris M 01/09/18 1:10 PM Reply


  • Hi Chris. Busy today but will dig it out tomorrow

    Ken McKenzie 01/09/18 8:14 AM Reply


    • Thank you, there’s no urgency.

      chrisrees 01/09/18 8:15 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Sandown
    1.50 Shamshon BOG 16/1
    1.50Bahamian Sunrise BOG 15/2
    Chester
    2.05 Oh This Is Us BOG 9/1
    2.05 Lake Volta BOG 11/2
    Beverley
    4.30 Poets Dawn BOG 10/3
    Wolverhampton
    5.10 Restive BOG 12/1
    5.10 Second Page BOG 13/2
    5.40 Liamba BOG 2/1
    Chelmsford
    7.45 Masham Star BOG 18/1
    7.45 Vale Of Kent BOG11/2

    colin leafe 01/09/18 11:11 AM Reply


  • Chris M Selections:
    Beverley:
    15:20 – Musharrif (11/2 gen)
    16:30 – Areen Heart (13/2 gen)
    17:05 – Rock on Bertie (16/1 in places, 14/1 gen)

    Sandown:
    14:25 – Mountain Angel (9/1 gen)

    Chester:
    17:00 – Hawaam (6/1 gen)

    Will do a full round up of last months results on Monday when I do my weekly. Ended the month pretty much even, poor end to the month caused that.

    Chris M 01/09/18 11:35 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 2.15 – Muntadab on 3rd run
    C 4.25 – Dark Shot on 2nd run
    C 5.35 – Dominating on 2nd run
    B 3.20 – Bondi Beach Boy on 2nd run
    S 2.25 – Billesdon Bess on 2nd run
    S 4.45 – Repton on 2nd run
    N 3.05 -Equus Amadeus on 3rd run
    Festival
    C 4.25 – Copper Knight on 2nd run
    B 2.45 – Line of Reason on 2nd run
    C 6.45 – Concierge on 2nd run
    C 7.45 – Mubtasim on 2nd run
    C 7.45 – Gilgamesh on 3rd run

    Over 3 runs
    Daily
    C 4.25 – Bossipop on 4th run
    B 3.20 – Mushariff on 8th run
    L 6.00 – Diamond Reflection on 4th run
    Festival
    C 4.25 – Growl on 4th run
    Cu 2.50 – Hence on 6th run

    No idea of odds cos virus update knacked my browser and just got up and running again.

    Titus 01/09/18 12:24 PM Reply


  • hi josh,

    I sent over a request to hrb on my various points of attack requirements for my bets …… they have comeback to say that out of my 14 bullet points only 2 are unobtainable through hrb .. which i find amazing as some of my micro’s are bit specific .. now just waiting for the green light to become a member .. just wondering if you or other members can confirm it is a fairly user friendly piece of kit ???

    cheers and keep up the good work …………. you are all doing very well 🙂
    bc 🙂

    BRIAN C. 01/09/18 6:39 PM Reply


    • Hi Brian,

      Yep I think it’s very user friendly once you get used to it, esp the system building and breakdown functions etc. Worth a try anyway.
      Josh

      Josh 02/09/18 9:02 AM Reply


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