Members Daily Post: 31/08/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Sandown

5.00 – Teenage Girl (micro age) w1 H1 I3 11/4 S2

 

Thirsk 

3.05 – Straightothepoint (m dist) 9/1 

3.40 – Lady Willpower (m dist/class move) 12/1 

4.15 – 

Mon Beau Visage (m dist) 22/1 

Our Charlie Brown (m class) H1 I3 6/1 S2 S6 

Start Time (m age) w1 H3 8/1 

4.45 – 

Muscika (m age) 18/1 

Captain Colby (m age) I3 G3 14/1 

 

Hamilton

5.55 – 

Colour Contrast (all hncps) I3 11/1 

Jack Blane (m runs) ES+ I3 9/1 S3A 

6.25 – 

Yes You (all hncps + m runs) w2 H1 I1 G1 5/2 S1 S4 

Nuns Walk (3yo+ hncp, + age) I3 G3 11/2 

6.55 – 

Sepal (all hncps) 13/2 

Jabbaar (all hncps) H3 9/1 

Mukhayyam (3yo+) H1 I1 11/1 S1 S6 

Appointed (3yo+ hncps/m age) I3 12/1 

Archie’s Affair (m age) 11/1 

7.30 – 

Kajaki (all hncps) I1 12/1 S6 

Canny Style (all hncps + m dist move) G1 12/1 S6 

8.00 – Hot Hannah (m age) 20/1 

 

JUMPS

Bangor

4.05 – 

Shackles (all hncps)  25/1 S2A

Rockalzaro (m runs) I3 7/2 

4.40 – 

Karamoko (all hncps) I3 5/2 

Boogie Life (m class/dist move) 9/2 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 22/233,80p, +4.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +154.5)

Daily Tips

None for Friday, still on my ‘analysis break’ 🙂 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat

R Fell

7.30 Ham – Zihaam

8.45 Ham- Sienna Says 

Jumps

D McCain (14/1< guide) 

4.05 Bang – Rockalzaro 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points

3.30 Bang – King Alfonso 

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Early Season Jumps Trainers

to follow….

Nigel Twiston-Davies

Charlie Longsdon 

 

Emma Lavelle (TBC, yet to do any research but i’ve a hunch she may have a big autumn, but I could be wrong!) 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

39 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • U.S. Racing Tip – we are off to where the turf meets the surf this Thursday evening, Del Mar race 6 – 00.30 UK time, Mr Cruze. Currently available at 6/1 BOG. 1 point each way. If a non runner the alternative selection is Closing Time win only in the same race.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 30/08/18 6:14 PM Reply


    • The selection was a loser.

      martin colwell 31/08/18 9:39 AM Reply


  • Hi all, thanks for all the great content and friendly atmosphere in the the comments. Any strategy advice for a rtp beginner? Straight win bets on any horses with the advised strategies, any further angles worth using? Any tips much appreciated. Thanks, JTJ

    JTJ 30/08/18 8:51 PM Reply


    • I back s6 on the flat, ie any that have a top rating G1 H1 or I1; and are min 6/1. NH I back all listed in chases 2m 7f or further. I back all tips, and again if already a ‘qualifier’ above. I only back win only. 1 point unless josh advises otherwise on tips. I’ve had ups and downs, but since 13 March I’m +211 points. But there’s lots of options to choose from. I just find it works for me.

      Mick 30/08/18 10:46 PM Reply


      • Thanks for the reply, I found the guides to the various strategies last night and yours seems a sensible place to start, its obviously working well. All the best going forward, good luck!

        JTJ 31/08/18 8:24 AM Reply


    • Hi JTJ
      As a relative newcomer myself my advice would to only use the various strategy selections in Section 1 as the basis for your own further research before deciding whether to bet. Win or EW depending on your normal criteria. I would personally not follow them blindly as you would have too many bets each day. However I would bet Josh’s festival tips full stop as they do pretty well!

      Hope you enjoy your membership – it has certainly improved my betting and all the guys that post know their stuff.

      Mark

      Mark Curtis 30/08/18 10:50 PM Reply


      • I think that it is important to read all of the contributions and give some thought to the thinking behind them and then perhaps run through as many of those races that you can. I realise this is dependent on time constraints.
        Then give it some thought yourself and agree or disagree and then see how it goes re actual results. It is important to have a go yourself when you have time.

        Re strategies, I would follow S2 and S6 over the others but that is just my analysis based upon reviewing them.

        Also ask questions on the post. Good luck.

        martin colwell 31/08/18 9:44 AM Reply


    • Hi JTJ,

      thanks for your comment, always the best thing to do rather than sitting there in silence if unsure! Firstly the ‘key’ above, in each members post is your friend and the ‘where should you start’ link is worth a read, I suppose that could read where ‘could’ you start. As with everything on here there are options which will suit different betting styles, and it’s my job to keep monitoring progress of strategy x, and how to approach them over time.

      The strategies… I’d definitely back Flat S6 systematically, as with any approach starting small and building up over time. If the last two flat seasons are to go by that looks to be a +75-100 point strategy a year by itself. But it is a low enough sr and a case of waiting for the biggies, of which we had a rush in the last few weeks so it could be that’s about to have a correction, we shall see.

      Flat S1 is solid if unspectacular but ticks along. Flat S4 has been good also, but had a poor last few weeks. Comparing it to 2017, and the numbers all mirror each other, just fewer of the placed horses have won, so could have just been an unlucky spell. It’s 9 winners behind last year, from same no. of bets, and that’s what’s made the difference to the profit. I’d hope S1 + S4 would be a +30-60 point strategy a year, as I write they are +21. Still, thats +100 for £5 bets, and half a year’s subs! 🙂

      To the Jumps…

      S2A…that’s a big odds strategy and not for the faint hearted…that does have very long/deep losing runs, 40/50+ every now and then, esp on the win side. Backing those 1/2 EW isn’t a bad starting point, and i’ve every confidence it will tick along but if 1 was low risk and 10 was high, that would be a 9!

      worth considering…

      S3A# … this is doing well on the Jumps, hasn’t quite had the same effect on the Flat. I do wonder if the hard ground/smaller fields has affected the odds on a few of the flat approaches this year, hence they are not pulling up any trees.

      In form horses… those that won LTO or the start before…those number are starting to look solid.

      With any luck the winter months will cement those two approaches over the sticks.

      *
      It does depend on how many bets you like etc and taking your time to work out what suits you. My hope is that whatever systematic approach you take it would pull in around at least 80-100+ points a year.

      Some members as per the replies, use the strategies as ‘starting points’ and ways in, before deciding whether they want to be with them.

      The odds…I don’t back anything under 7/2 generally on the strategy front, as I think a lot of the shorties just end up paying for themselves, but i’ve never properly tracked that and clearly should.

      Elsewhere…

      Then you’re into tipping… my tips are in section 2, the Festival/big race tips have done well and should continue to do so, albeit such is the nature of my approach there will be some lengthy losing runs, and the odds howler as per York! My daily tips have struggled to get going this year, but they will.

      There are the comments… I suspect Nick M has a big following and he’s been ‘tipping’ the longest in the comments, since 1st Sept last year, and is top of the tree on results to date I think… not 100% sure on his totals now but it’s around 400+ points, mainly to 1pt EW, over the year. Not too bad. There are plenty of others who are ticking along also, and again can be a case of monitoring with a view to following in time, or just enjoying the read etc.

      The ‘test zone’ – section 3, is just that and I wouldn’t necessarily follow anything systematically from there, but all angles are a decent starting point/way in.

      However you approach the content, have adequate banks and start small. There’s all the time in the world to build up stakes and i’m not going anywhere. With any luck you can use the content on these pages to make at least 200+ points per year, which I think is a decent benchmark, but in a good year, 500/600+ may not be impossible.

      Hope that may help but shout if not. The point of the long trial etc is very much to try and take everything in and see what may suit you etc.

      Josh

      p.s I should add that most days you have all the info you need to decide what horse hits what strategy the evening before. At around 8am each morning I add the prices and the ‘S’ numbers, denoting the strategy they qual against, to help/make sure you’re on right track. Some of them are based on generally available morning prices, but if you can only bet the evening before, do so and use the prices as a guide at a time that you bet. It all evens out.

      p.p.s – oh and the other thing i’ll say… if you like picking horses out yourself/analysing etc, do leave yourself enough capacity, esp mental, to do so. I think a mixed approach is always good, and esp if adding your own bets into the mix, whether using info on these pages or not, as they can be the most satisfying and keep you engaged during the lows etc.

      Josh 31/08/18 12:38 PM Reply


    • Whilst I agree with previous comments on here you may also wish to consider the micro system – Handicap Chase System Starting Point. Josh suggests these systems should be monitored and not followed but the stats would suggest otherwise even though it’s early days. The number of bets has been 20 of which 40% have won versus an expected strike rate of 21%, an impact value of 2 or thereabouts. Longest losing run 5, mean yield (ROI%) equal to 64% and a maximum draw-down of 6.7% of bank. Currently statistically significant, that is if a tipster was supplying these as tips you would state there is a less than 0.1% probability that the observed profit, relative to break-even, was down to chance. Some will argue that the sample size is too small and they would be correct but with a mean yield of 64% and average odds of bf 4.64 then, only a sample size of 64 bets are required.

      I trust I have not now jinxed this system.

      chris button 31/08/18 12:53 PM Reply


      • Doesn’t appear so Chris! 🙂

        Josh 31/08/18 4:03 PM Reply


  • No joy on the AW at Chelmsford today so with 1 NR that’s -5pts. Still in profit for August (just), so looking for a big day tomorrow at Wolves and Newcastle. Qualifiers as follows:

    Wolves
    4.00 John Joiner 10/1 & Amberine 6/1
    5.35 Smugglers Creek 13/2 & Stringybark Creek 11/2
    6.05 Energia Flavio 9/2 & Lucky Lodge 7/1
    6.35 Rebel Cause 14/1 & Rock Icon 11/2

    Newcastle
    5.45 Duration 3/1
    6.15 Stoney Broke 5/1
    7.15 Majestic Stone 3/1
    7.45 Naralsaif 25/1 (EW) & Zoravan 7/1

    1pt win each except where noted EW

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 30/08/18 9:03 PM Reply


  • Recent winner from NTF’s Summer Stunners, Peregrine Run is back out tomorrow, however this time in a hurdles race.

    Meets 2/3 suggested criteria, but the price is pretty short and is being backed tonight by the looks of it. Ben (Mr NTF) put the horse up as a chaser, so i’m not sure entirely what his views are in regards to a hurdles race.

    Down Royal 6.40 – Peregrine Run – trading around 2/1.

    Salman Ali 30/08/18 9:38 PM Reply


  • Nice to get back to winning ways. I am off on holiday on Saturday for a week and almost certainly won’t have time to look at the cards. (particularly as I spent this evening looking at the cards instead of packing)

    Straightothepoint Thirsk Friday 15:05 1pt e/w
    Leighs Law Sandown Friday 16:25 1pt e/w
    Mr Strutter Thirsk Friday 15:40 1pt e/w
    Captain Colby Thirsk Friday 16:45 1pt e/w

    Nick Mazur 30/08/18 10:26 PM Reply


    • Yes, thanks Nick, your selection today got me out of jail! Have a great holiday – really appreciate your tips and analysis.

      Mark Curtis 30/08/18 10:39 PM Reply


    • Have a good holiday. I will do your picks in a Yankee and if it comes up I will throw you a party.

      martin colwell 30/08/18 10:41 PM Reply


    • Nick Have a great break – you have certainly swelled my account this summer. A complete turn off is a great idea to recharge the batteries especially with the big end of flat and the NH ramping up come October

      finalflight 30/08/18 10:58 PM Reply


    • Many thanks for all your tips. Have a great holiday you deserve it

      jamie2255 31/08/18 5:38 AM Reply


    • Enjoy your hols Nick and thanks for your tips and comments.

      roybedford 31/08/18 7:09 AM Reply


    • Hi Nick, thank you for a fantastic August, if you get the chance can you drop me a quick email paulebrey4@hotmail.com, I wouldn’t mind getting some wine over to you

      Paul

      general6969 31/08/18 8:45 AM Reply


    • Thanks for all your tips & write ups nick much appreciated, have a great holiday!

      Steven Cartwright 31/08/18 9:15 AM Reply


    • Happy holidays Nick, thanks for the tips.

      westy2 31/08/18 12:18 PM Reply


    • Have a great holiday Nick, enjoy the break and thanks for the tips!!

      Matt Porter 31/08/18 1:41 PM Reply


    • Happy holidays mate, thanks for the tips!

      Steven Van Es 31/08/18 3:37 PM Reply


    • Thanks guys. We end August on 93.56pts in profit. Think I might struggle to top that next month.

      Nick Mazur 31/08/18 5:10 PM Reply


      • Top work Nick, thanks! Enjoy the break

        Joe H 31/08/18 8:54 PM Reply


    • Nick what can one say Fantastic, Brilliant,Amazing etc.
      Enjoy your holiday.
      Thanks again.

      colin leafe 31/08/18 8:35 PM Reply


  • Josh, really enjoyed seeing you capering around at the winning post. I remember my first share in a winning horse, Thinkers Effort, Stratford 1999. It was about a week before my daughter was born and the sense of elation was very similar. Treasure that feeling.

    Thanks to Nick also, today was the first day since I got back from holiday that I didn’t have time to have a look at the racing and so missed a great day from Nick and Sp2a. Have a nice rest Nick, I barely looked at the races for 10 days and I found I had a lot more time for the family!

    To add to that yesterday at Lingfield having put up Annecy in my post, returned 13/1 BFSP I somehow failed to back her. By far the best type in the paddock but I just thought she needed it. Won hands and heels Doh!

    Still off to Sandown tomorrow for yet another tilt. This is the marvellous thing about our game, each day the challenge starts afresh.

    I will be posting on the free page when it is up.
    Hugh

    alpha2 30/08/18 11:16 PM Reply


    • Will someone please put Josh’s celebrating on YouTube!!! (only joking!)

      Chris Albin 31/08/18 8:37 AM Reply


      • Haha, it is in the twitter bar on the right of the blog, when on desktop/tablet. It plays through that also.
        Great fun! That was a mix of emotions, mainly we were just desperate for her to get her head in front and show us the ability we thought she had – mixed in with the fact we all had a niggle about her attitude when under pressure/needing to go past horses. She’ll only go one way now I think, plenty of potential there and she wasn’t stopping in that race.

        Josh 31/08/18 12:40 PM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    B 4.05 – Marjus Quest on 2nd run @ 15/2
    T 3.05 – Burtonwood on 2nd run @ 10
    T 5.50 – Face Like Thunder on 2nd run @ 6
    Festival
    B 2.20 – What Happens Now on 2nd run @ 5
    3m+
    B 2.20 – Vendredi Trois on 3rd run @ 11

    Over 3 runs
    Daily
    T 5.50 – Admiral Rooke on 7th run @ 3 (NB for me but would reduce exposure)
    W 4.00 – John Joiner on 5th run @ 10
    Mike

    Titus 31/08/18 9:40 AM Reply


  • Chris M Selections

    Thirsk:
    16:15 – Our Charlie Brown (9/2 gen) & Gabrial the Tiger (10/1 gen)

    Hamilton:
    17:55 – Jack Blane (10/1 gen)
    6:55 – Jabbaar (9/1 gen)

    Sandown:
    17:00 – Teenage Gal (4/1 gen)

    Chris M 31/08/18 10:21 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Sandown
    2.10 Grey Galleon BOG4/1
    Thirsk
    3.05 Cliff BOG 3/1
    4.15 Our Charlie Brown BOG 9/2
    4.45 Highland Acclaim BOG 18/1
    5.15 The Knot Is Tied BOG15/8
    Hamilton
    5.55 Lotara BOG12/1
    6.55 Mukhayyam BOG 12/1
    6.55 Theglasgowwarrior BOG12/1
    7.30 Zihaam BOG 4/1

    colin leafe 31/08/18 10:42 AM Reply


  • Atzeni rides at Hamilton today and has 3 for Varian, who all seem to have a decent chance, albeit one goes off very short. SDS rides at Wolverhampton and goes for volume over quality. Hanagan is at Newcastle for Fahey. Hugo Palmer runners go well at the course and he runs Formula One in the 6.45. Sir Michael Stoute sends two up to Newcastle with David Probert riding, 6.15 Lunar Corona and 6.45 Midi.
    The other top jockeys are at Sandown. Ryan Morre rides two for Stoute and two for Hannon. It all looks very competitive.
    Over the jumps we are at Bangor. Hendo runs two with Nico up, 1.50 Full Bore and 2.20 No Hiding Place. McCain and Brian Hughes have runners there and Richard Johnson rides for various trainers.

    I would also put up 5.00 SP Topmeup at 15/2 and 5.55 Ham Empress Lyla in an each way double.

    Good luck today it looks hard.

    martin colwell 31/08/18 11:29 AM Reply


  • The son of one of racing’s greats Cieren Fallon makes his debut 5.50 Thirsk on board Rhigolter Rose.Hopefully will reach all the highs and none of the lows of his dad.He should be in good hands at the Haggas yard with the perfect mentor to guide him

    gearoid180468 31/08/18 12:06 PM Reply


  • Hi Guys,
    I ventured into picking some flat runners this season generally looking for less exposed runners with some decent pace. All seemed ok until the last 3/4 weeks when there has been a marked downturn on strike rate and profit. I was wondering if that’s to be expected or it was just a crap idea and I got lucky for the first few weeks.
    Mike

    Titus 31/08/18 12:08 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike
      Improving and progressive is always a good starting point obviously you have not got 12 months or more records,this run at the moment could be a blip or has you say you got lucky when you started,my advice is continue recording for at least 12 months and then review the results.
      August not been a good month for me, nor for many others putting their bets up here,August is normally a bumper month for me,for whatever reason not this year.

      colin leafe 31/08/18 1:15 PM Reply


    • Sample size is all important. I would give something at least 3 months and at least 100 winners, but that is too small really, double that if you can. Analyse performance and look for tweaks. As I said yesterday I think that you have too many selections to show a profit long term at present.

      Good luck.

      martin colwell 31/08/18 1:26 PM Reply


    • Titus,
      You answered your own question when you started it by saying ventured ( hoped, chanced, guessed) Less exposed runners is a huge difference of opinion to base any sort of system on and “decent pace” is too complicated given class and going. Everyone looks for shortcuts in all walks of life but we all know it ends in tears, gambling only accentuates that. I suggest you start by subscribing to Geegeez and concentrating on some solid foundation like betting only class 2,3,4 as this gets rid of the more random form and trainer skullduggery. Use some of their filters to discard horses never having won over the trip, never having won in the class and if absolutely certain what the going is, those with poor form on it.
      That will put you in a position to at least assess your chances of a winning bet and reduce the field even further by other various ploys like draw, pace, trainer form and opinions from websites like this. Above all don’t kid yourself that there’s a magic formula, there’s only solid filters and hard work.

      chubnut 31/08/18 8:17 PM Reply


  • Don’t go Nick!! We need you here strutting your stuff!!!

    Chris Albin 31/08/18 3:44 PM Reply


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