Members Daily Post: 27/08/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Epsom

3.40 – Je Suis Charlie (micro age) H3 I3 G1 5/1 S2 S4 UP

 

Chepstow

2.00 – Major Valentine (m age) I3 11/1  WON 11/1>22/1 

4.20 – Dukeofwallingford (all hncps/3yo+) ES+ G3 14/1 S3A 

4.55 – 

One Line (m TJC) 25/1 

Social Butterfly (m age) 11/1 

5.30 – 

Arty Campbell (m class move) I3 14/1 

Nabhan (m class move) 25/1 

 

Ripon

4.35 – Mikmak (m TJC) w2 I3 G1 11/2 S2 

5.45 – King of The Celts (m dist move) 12/1 WON 12/1 

 

JUMPS

Cartmel 

3.15 – Wells Du Lune (all hncps/micro age) w2 w1 14 H1 I1 13/8 WON 13/8<4/6

3.50 – Souriyan (all hncps/m age) w2 w1 14 H3 I1 9/2 UP

4.25 – 

Fair Exchange (all hncps/m age) (hncp debut) 14 8/1 UP

Dr Robin (all hncps/m age) 14 33/1 3rd 13/2 

Alderbrook Lad (m dist) I3 11/1 S2  UP

5.00 – Court King (all hncps/m age) 14 I3 6/1 

5.35 – 

Equus Pandora (all hncps) (hncp debut) 14 12/1 S2 UP 

Golden Friday (m dist) 14/1 S2 2nd 20/1 

 

Irish Bonus Stats

3.20 – Maighnealta (all hncps) 9/1 3rd 10/1 

5.40 – Cubomania (m runs) 14,30  H1 9/4 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 22/233,80p, +4.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +154.5)

 

Daily Tips

3.05 Chep Epsom -Just Glamorous – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) UP

3.15 Cart – Theflyingportrait– 1 point win – 13/2 (gen) UP

3.50 Cart – Morning Royalty – 1 point win – 12/1 (betfS/PP) 10/1 (gen) UP

5.35 Cart – Equus Pandora – 1 point win – 14/1 (PP/BetfS) 12/1 (gen) UP

that’s all for tips, 10.38, write ups on their way…

Just Glamorous… I tipped this one when a NR at Ascot, albeit at loftier odds but in a deeper race. Unlike many in here I think he’ll appreciate the soft ground and I thought there was a chance he could blast out, grab the rail, and make all. He burst a blood vessel at Goodwood which would be a concern but before that he raced in a G2 but the three runs before that, off 106/107 in C2 handicaps, were decent enough. He’s back down to 99 here and I think in one of the weakest races he’s contested for a while. The time to nab Blue De Vega was two starts back at lofty odds but he’s worth taking on here. He’s inconsistent and there’s every chance he finds this too sharp I think. He’s run ok on soft and over further so may get away with it but I thought worth taking on. The second fav, Pettochside, is 0/8,2p in C2, which may indicate the lack of depth in this race, for the class. Anyway, I thought at his best, 8s was a shade too big and given I tipped him LTO (intended run since Goodwood when horsebox broke down on the way to Ascot) I thought there was enough there to stick with him. He may well set the tone for the day!

Theflyingportrait… 13/2 just lured me in here in a race that may be all about how the fav runs on his return to fences. I’m not sure any of these really want soft ground but while TFP has yet to win on softened turf, there was some gallant placed efforts on soft/heavy over 2m4f+ around the likes of Leicester, where he’d get caught late on as his stamina emptied. Maybe his low handicap mark/youth got him through those but I thought this race was between these two, and his price was too big. WDL has been beating dross over hurdles, albeit doing it very well, and does have the odd decent chase run to his name. At his best over fences he maybe the one to beat, but there’s a chance his brain isn’t coded to lift his legs high enough having been over hurdles for a few runs. He was never the greatest jumper at his best and the ground may not help with fluency. I hope Sean decides to track TFP and leave him be on the front end, but we shall see. TFP returned to some form LTO, beaten by the right horse, and at his best would beat these well enough. He’s handicapped to go in again, the jockey’s in form and the trainer’s horses are going better than they were. He should give this a good go and hopefully his jumping/class may get him through. That or he’ll be overhauled by the fav after the last. I didn’t like anything else in this at the prices.

Morning Royalty… a bit of a poke but I think he’s a few points too big here given the rain has come for him and this is more his trip. He was a running (or maybe more plodding) on 3rd in this race last year but is 10lb lower today. That run 3 starts back over 20f in soft at Perth demonstrated he was in ok form/there was still something left to give in his career. He was outpaced there but ran well enough. He has a decent track record and I thought he’d handle conditions better than most. Some of these are a bit inconsistent and I thought the rest looked around the right price/short enough. He is a hold up horse so will need some luck, and you want a price with those sorts. But if he can get in a rhythm I think he’ll be keeping on at the end when many of these may not be.

Equus Pandora… the sort where I think he’s either going to bolt up or tail off, and thus will probably run a creditable second or third!! Bowen has handicap hurdle debut winners with this sort of profile, who seemingly bounce into form from nowhere in their first handicap. I thought his profile was interesting…he won a PtP on GS before running ok in a bumper at Aintree. He then had 3 maiden hurdle runs in the space of 15 days in July. Interesting. Two were on GF, the last one over 20f where he ran ok. He was well beat but kept going and wasn’t tailed off as such. He’s since had a 40 day break (plenty of time to do something with him/change to training regime, freshened up etc), steps up in trip, and races on the softest ground he’s encountered since that PtP. It could be he doesn’t handle it, but it’s an unknown and something different. Bowen is in form, 3/12 in the last 14 days and he’s 5/17,7p, +15 with handicap debutants in the last 2 years, 1/1 at the track. (Fair Exchange ticks that box also but it’s over fences and he was half the price) There was enough there given the stats/his profile for a dabble I think. He could just be very moderate but this will reveal more I suspect.

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Of the rest…well i stared at Dukeofwallingford for a time as I think I tipped him LTO when not doing much. He steps back up to 7f here, and runs on softer ground for the first time since the second start of his life where he ran well – I was guessing to a point as to how he’d handle it. He gets first time CP, but the trainer is only 2/56 with those in handicaps, which put me off a bit. His mark is dropping and there has been the odd glimmer of promise. Harley is on which I couldn’t work out, and Bishop (who is higher up the trainer’s pecking order) is on Barista… maybe that’s a hint in itself, who knows. I wouldn’t be shocked if he went close here but I decided there wasn’t enough there for me to tip him. We shall see if I’ve got that right or not.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

4.35 Ripon – Two For Two

 

Jumps

D McCain (14/1<)

3.50 Cart – Lofgren

4.25 Cart – Raise A Spark

5.00 Cart – Volcanic / William of Orange

5.35 Cart – Golden Friday

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Apologies …

…for this morning. My Security Certificate renews every 3 months, and as has happened in the past something went wrong with the auto-renewal and how it processes. It’s a very simple fix when that happens, but I couldn’t get through to my tech support for an age. So,sorry for the interruption, I need to ponder how to make sure that doesn’t happen again as it’s very frustrating. Any positive results from the strategies above obviously won’t be included in totals.

Contact…. 

I don’t automatically have all members added onto a members’ only email list and I should probably look into that. I did tweet Section 1 yesterday morning, and also posted it on my Facebook page, so there are two avenues there, other than emailing me, if ever I need to get something out because the blog is down. It has only ever happened so far due to that certificate issue.

You can follow me on twitter HERE>>>

Or follow the Racing To Profit Facebook Page HERE>>> (you can turn off notifications etc, there if needed)

I think that’s the first time since I started in 2013 that i’ve failed to post a blog post by the cut-off time (by 10am weekday/11am weekends).

I’ll look into a members only email list, for emergencies/when blog is down, esp for those who don’t have twitter or facebook.

*

 

York

Some reflections…

to follow

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

33 Comments

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  • U.S.Racing Tip – Saratoga race 7, 9.25 UK time, Chestnut Street, 5/1 available.

    Yesterdays tip won at 7/1. Profit update on Monday.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 26/08/18 7:21 PM Reply


    • The above selection was a loser. Since 29 June +50.5 points.

      martin colwell 27/08/18 12:23 PM Reply


  • Got 2 tomorrow.

    Like Nayefs at Southwell. Trainer jockey combo, trainer going well, 3 yr old allowance, bit of blue. So it has to be Ava The Braver 9/1 Tops

    Going to Ripon and Dascombe/ Kingscote 25%cd together. Sire/dam positive stats. porchy party 12/1 tops. 3.25

    Steven Clowes 26/08/18 7:52 PM Reply


    • Doyle 3/4 for Watson, too, since y’day.

      chrisrees 26/08/18 9:42 PM Reply


  • Breaking news….
    Bookmakers have been found to show human tendencies in this latest discovery –

    Dear Valued Sky Bet Customer

    Think it’s unfair when you never even get a run for your money? At Sky Bet, we agree – and that’s why we’ve voided your selection on Roll on Rory in the 19.00 Redcar after the horse refused to start and took no part in the race, therefore losing all chance of winning.

    Under the rules of racing, all bets on the horse should be treated as losers, but we have voided all selections on Roll on Rory as a gesture of goodwill.

    Look out for further offers and promotions coming your way over the weeks ahead – in particular Sky Bet’s Money Back offers, giving you more chances to win… even when you don’t win!

    Customer Care Team
    Sky Betting and Gaming

    Chris Albin 26/08/18 9:14 PM Reply


    • Meanwhile in the real world Skybet removed my BOG a couple of weeks ago and now it seems I’m restricted to less than £1/bet. Think it’s unfair when we remove your BOG? At Skybet we disagree. Go and make a profit elsewhere. How dare you have the temerity to make a profit from us. Bstrds!!!

      Ken McKenzie 26/08/18 9:28 PM Reply


      • Strange how it all works. Was unable to get on Roll On Rory with sky (wanted £50 e/w) was given the chance of £12.63 e/w.
        Have only had an account with them for around 6 months and am only showing a very small profit.
        Struck the bet no problems with hills with whom i show a profit in the same timescale of over £4000, but they kept the 100 pounds

        Andy 26/08/18 10:58 PM Reply


      • Had a free £20 from skybet due to a LOSING bet. Put it on a longshot treble that I would never have bet on normally, came in. Now I’m restricted on every single platform.

        Darren C 26/08/18 11:04 PM Reply


      • I posted a while back that I don’t recognize skybet as a bookmaker,joke of a company when others are changing their policy on laying to a maximum liability they restrict at a drop of a hat,Paddy Power and betfair sportsbook (same company) are as bad

        christopher jones 26/08/18 11:18 PM Reply


        • I’ve made plenty from Sky and awaiting some sort of restrictions at some point but a big part of my betting is multiples which makes me the most over time so it really is hard to pinpoint why they restrict customers. The only things I haven’t done is withdraw or deposit.

          Chris Albin 27/08/18 12:30 AM Reply


          • I have never had a problem with Skybet, I like Chris have won more from multiples with them than straight Win or E/W, I have only ever deposited £150, have withdrawn £2000 and still have over £1500 in the account, I think it is that I quite regularly do Yankees or lucky15’s which we know they see as a mug punter bet, but for small stakes at the prices we look for can win quite a few quid, I also think It keeps my account running without restrictions. Was restricted and any benefits removed by Paddy Power after under 10 bets after the first one that made a profit so haven’t bet with them in years, wa***ers.

            Greg Phillips 27/08/18 12:39 PM Reply


            • Thanks for posting that Greg, I’ll have a go at withdrawing and see what happens! Did you withdraw the 2k in one go or smaller sums? If smaller what were the approx timescales between each withdrawal?

              Chris Albin 27/08/18 4:20 PM Reply


              • I had over 2K in the account, won 2.2k on 3 big price winners in a lucky 15, I withdrew 2K just left more in the account than I withdrew, the account has had it’s ups and downs since but as I said still get all the offers, this was a few years ago but bet with them at least 5 days a week.

                Greg Phillips 27/08/18 8:59 PM Reply


  • Feel much better after getting that off my chest 🙂

    AW update for w/c 20 August:
    Staked 16pts, Profit -0.25pts, ROI -1.56% or -£1.25 to £5 stakes.

    After a good day on Wed with one winner from two tips, I could only find one more winner from the other 14 tips. Still slightly up for August and with 6.5 meetings this week (mixed card at Lingfield), plenty of opportunities to come out ahead at the end of August.

    First meeting at Southwell since May tomorrow. Qualifiers below:
    1.50 Albert Boy 6/1
    3.00 Terrier Spirit 9/2
    3.35 East Street Revue 7/1 & Poyle Vinnie 4/1
    4.10 Lucky Beggar 7/1 & Archimedes 5/1
    4.45 Break The Silence 11/2
    5.20 Sunstorm 11/2
    5.55 Moans Cross 5/1 & Tynecastle Park 5/1

    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 26/08/18 10:18 PM Reply


  • On a busy day, worth noting these claimers’ rides:-
    The. Ladd – Southwell
    150 Albert Boy
    300 Bobbys Charm
    335 Ebidta
    410 Coiste Bodhar
    445 Break The Silence
    520 Thunderball
    Scott McCullagh – Chepstow
    235 Swanton Blue
    455 Social Butterfly
    605 Banksys Art
    Jason Watson – Epsom
    230 Swissal
    450 Zzoro
    525 Deadly Accurate
    Andrew Breslin – Ripon
    215 Kemmeridge Bay

    chrisrees 27/08/18 7:17 AM Reply


    • Ladd: W11/4 + 5L; McCullagh: 1L + 2NR; Watson: L W5/1. W11/2; Breslin: 1L.
      L/S profit: 5.25pts.

      chrisrees 27/08/18 5:34 PM Reply


  • Josh, I have 2.50 Ripon Ventura Crest as a qualifier and 6.05 Chepstow Banksys Art, maybe wrong, did it late last night.

    geoffwylde 27/08/18 9:26 AM Reply


    • Hi Geoff,
      My stats just focus on ‘standard’ all aged handicaps, not 3YO only, maiden/seller/claiming/veterans etc, hence why they don’t officially ‘qualify’ – but I do miss the odd one, so keep those eagle eyes peeled! 🙂
      Best
      Josh

      Josh 27/08/18 12:36 PM Reply


  • Unfortunately I had to unexpectedly travel south early on Saturday so I had no time to make selections for that day. I had a look yesterday but due to site issues I could not post so both Saturday and Sunday were no bet days. Frustrating I could not bet Saturday as it looks like my eyecatchers had a good few nice priced winners.

    Chris M Selections:
    Southwell:
    14:25 – Requited (10/3 gen)
    15:35 – East Street Revue (7/1 gen)
    16:10 – Cupids Arrow (12/1 gen)
    17:55 – Moans Cross (4/1 gen)

    Cartmel:
    15:15 – Theflyingportrait (13/2 gen)

    Results from last week to follow. Good luck punting today 🙂

    Chris M 27/08/18 10:01 AM Reply


    • Re-Cap w/c 20/8/18:
      26 bets – 3 winners
      S/R: 11.54%
      ROI: -13.46%
      P/L: -3.5 pts

      Overall:
      308 bets – 60 winnners and 7 N/R
      S/R: 19.93%
      ROI: +14.53%
      P/L: +43.88 pts

      June: -10.4 pts
      July: +33.68 pts
      August: +20.6 (ongoing)

      A week where I struggled to get going really, some nice wins to start the week but as soon as York started my darts landed nowhere near the target. As I said above I’m sure had I been able to bet on Saturday then that -3.5 could have been positive but no point dwelling on missed chances. Hopefully have a good couple of days to top up the overall for August.

      Chris M 27/08/18 11:12 AM Reply


    • Nice start Chris. I took your tip for that one. We have two the same later but I’m taking you on in the 4.10. GL.

      Ken McKenzie 27/08/18 2:44 PM Reply


      • Cheers Ken 🙂 . I have your lot backed as well so either way I am happy. Cupid’s Arrow is a poke tbh, tracked him a couple of races back at Wolver and he does seem to have a preference for the softer turf but his mark is down 9 from his last winning mark and he looks set to claim a win soon. Watch him fall out the back now….

        Chris M 27/08/18 3:11 PM Reply


        • Mmmh that went well. Not!!

          Ken McKenzie 27/08/18 4:33 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    No bet today

    colin leafe 27/08/18 10:14 AM Reply


  • Another of NTF’s Summer Stunners is out today.

    Cartmel 3.15 – Theflyingportrait, currently 13/2.

    Ticks 2/3 suggested criteria, the one it falls down on is ground. Record on soft is 0/13, which would be the concern.

    Salman Ali 27/08/18 10:41 AM Reply


    • Thanks for doing these Salman. I’d let them slip. I picked up your post on Saturday for Peregrine Run which came in at 6/1. Cheers.

      I’ve had a go at today’s pick, even though it doesn’t appear to like the ground. Josh and another tipster I follow have tipped it so maybe they know something Ben at NTF doesn’t?

      Ken McKenzie 27/08/18 11:05 AM Reply


      • The horse does like to race prominently, but may be taken on for the lead by the Bowen horse. If he does get an uncontested lead then could make all, but on soft ground may not fully stay the trip. Hopefully Josh will have a view to counteract all this and we get a winner!

        Salman Ali 27/08/18 11:23 AM Reply


        • We shall see, hopefully with the return to fences in better grade, will see Bowen be less aggressive..i’m not sure he’s quick enough to take on TFP over fences but we will find out soon.
          The soft is a niggle, but only that in the context of the race/oppo. There are valid excuses for his 3 runs on soft since start 2016, one over hurdles, one in a G3 on seasonal debut and the other after a lengthy break also. He does have some ok placed efforts a few years back, and it could be as he gets older/slower, that it suits more. He won’t mind it slowing down the others anyway. My hope is that his jumping and class can see him through as he’s much better than all these over fences, at his best, in my view. He’s the only C2 chase winner in the field, Ifandbut has a listed win to his name but not over fences and this trip may stretch him in the ground. Maybe the fav will just be too good, is in too good a form, and will relish the return to fences. Will find out soon enough. GL
          Josh

          Josh 27/08/18 12:31 PM Reply


  • Last week was a little poor by my standards but in fairness there were a few close seconds.

    Cheeky Rascal Ripon 14:50 1pt e/w Price available 18/1
    William Of Orange Cartmel 17:00 1pt e/w Price available 8/1

    Nick Mazur 27/08/18 11:04 AM Reply


  • apologies for tardiness
    RECENT TIPS
    Daily/Notes
    E 3.05 – Just Glamorous on 1st run @ 8 (nr when tipped 11/8)
    R 2.15 – Bouncin Back on 2nd run @ 10
    Festival
    C 3.15 – Theflyingportrait on 3rd run @ 13/2
    Mike

    Titus 27/08/18 11:08 AM Reply


  • what a cracking start Major Valentine 1.5pt bet @22-1 🙂

    martin whittle 27/08/18 2:46 PM Reply


    • that’s a profit today whatever else happens

      martin whittle 27/08/18 2:47 PM Reply


      • GULP! Stared at him for ages as I had him tracked from when he ran back at Chepstow earlier in the month. Decided against him given he was around 10s when I looked and that price did not outweigh the niggles I had. At that SP of 22s the niggles would be completely forgotten about

        Chris M 27/08/18 3:14 PM Reply


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