Members Daily Post: 24/08/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Ffos Las

4.00 – Wingingit (all hncps 5 yrs, 3yo+ 5yrs) 14 ES+I1 7/1 S3A S6  2nd 9/1

5.00 – Long Call (micro class) 14/1 UP

 

York

1.55 – 

Melting Dew (m class) w2 14,30H1 6/1 S6 UP

Never Surrender (m class) w114G3 20/1 UP (5th)

 

Goodwood

6.35 – Poet’s Vanity (m dist) 14 16/1 

 

Salisbury

5.15 – Gala Celebration (all hncps, m class) I3 G1 7/4 S2 2nd 

7.55 – 

Bamako Du Chatelet (all hncps, m class) I3 G3  14/1 

Golden Image (m class/age) 5/1 

 

Newmarket 

None. 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 22/228,80p, +9.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +164.5)

Daily Tips

6.35 Good – Dark Shot – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen)

That will be it for daily tips, 09.11, write up…

One more roll of the dice for this one I think, as i’ve convinced myself he’s got a 6f handicap in him now. He ran very well here two starts back and had no luck in running at Ripon. Allan had some much horse under him there but had nowhere to go for most of the last 3f or so and didn’t give him an overly hard time. He went there as if a horse in form and Theo Ladd returns. What pushed me over the line was his draw, right up against the stand side rail. Given this horse has made all before for Balding, and given Theo is very good from the front, and on the back of the troubled run LTO, i’d be a tad bemused if they didn’t try and make all here. In any case he should be up there in a race lacking front runners on paper.  All bar Vibrant Chords have taken a lead on recent runs and with any luck a few of these may be marooned up the middle, or get stuck behind horses if they all come to the rail. There was just enough juice in his price here and hopefully he runs a big race. I wasn’t sure this track would suit the fav over 6f  and he looked worth taking on. 

 

Festival Tips

1.55 York

Pacify – 1 point win– 12/1 (bet365/BV/BetB) 11/1 (gen) 4th

Never Surrender 1 point win– 20/1 (gen) UP (5th)

That’s bloody frustrating, sums up the week for me, picked the wrong one between Pacify and Titus, having switched from the latter. Demolished them. Damn. Maybe I need a holiday. 

That will be it for Festival tips.

Pacify… this horse just seems to come alive around here and appears to save his best form for the track.  It looks like 12f is his trip now, he’s unexposed over it, and  is reunited with Danny Tudhope. According to his trainer he had issues for all of last year, and plenty of the yard’s horses were sick also I believe. Beckett’s horses have been running better in recent weeks and I thought he was sure to give me a run for my money around here. I hope Tudhope doesn’t have him too far back as there is a chance this turns into a bit of a dash, but if it does his 10f speed should help. There is more to come from him I think and I’d be surprised if he wasn’t in there pitching come the business end. 

Never Surrender… with any luck an apt name given how my punting week is going to date. This one appears on my trends shortlist below, the yard are in form, he won LTO and I thought worth a stab at 20s. He does need to step forward, and may well not be good enough, but he stepped back up to 12f last time and settled into his race better than he had been doing – he does have a tendency to ruin his chance by pulling but there was no evidence of that LTO as he scooted clear. On only his 4th start over 12f and 3rd on decent ground, I thought he was one of the more interesting ones at a big price. 

dangers…First Nation is clearly one to fear and you suspect this has been the plan. There should be more to come this season but he can be held up and it’s his first run here. He may take to the place really well and his yard couldn’t be in better form, but 4s is short enough for me in a race like this. I looked at Titus for an age and will be a tad annoyed if he wins but he does have to prove his stamina, stepping up in trip, and in that context, in a race like this, I wasn’t sure 11s or so was overly generous. The 40 day break niggled me also but the yard are in form and so was the horse when last seen. I was on the fence as to whether he’d improve for the step up so we shall see. If he relishes it he could win this well enough. Kelly’s Dino is interesting from a pace perspective…i’m not sure there is loads of it in here and he will be in the right spot. However that Ayr run put me off a bit and he needs to prove it in a race like this. I’d fancy the fav to overturn that Ascot run as you’d expect him to come on for it, and that run was a tactical affair. Of those around the 12/1 mark I preferred Pacify and we shall see if that’s right. Reshoun is a big priced trends qualifier but enough questions for me. He may appreciate this return to a more galloping track but he does need the headgear to work wonders, which isn’t impossible. It would be a bit frustrating were he to win at those odds but enough questions for me. 

As always there’s a chance I haven’t mentioned the winner. I could do with one this week, so fingers crossed!

Best of luck with any bets. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Irish Angles

7.40 Kilb – Burndown

Flat 

The Doyler

2.05 Newm – Ice Gala

3.15 Newm – Sangarius

Top of the Class

2.50 Newm- Gateway

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

York Ebor Meeting

York Ebor Meeting Stats Report: Read HERE>>>

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York Day 3 Pointers

1.55

Trainer Race Pointers

Melting Dew (3/18,10p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Melting Dew

First Nation

Titus

Never Surrender

Top Rated Runners

Melting Dew /Moonmeister / Kellys Dino

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers

Trainers

First Nation

Melting Dew (4/1<)

Mister Belvedere – Archie’s Affair

Caliburn

Moonmeister

Jockeys

First Nation (6/1<)

Pacify (8/1<)

Caliburn (14/1<)

Owners

First Nation (9/1<)

 

2.55

Trainer Race Pointers

Desert Skyline (2/6,3p)

Red Vernon (3/13,6p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Stradivarius

Count Octave

Desert Skyline

Max Dynamite

Top Rated Runners

Stradivarius/Count Octave / Stradivarius

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers

Trainers

Jockeys

Desert Skyline (16/1<)

Stradivarius

Owners

 

3.00

Trainer Race Pointers

Emaraaty (3/12,5p)

The Irish Rover (2/7,6p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Chuck Willis

Legends of War

Shine So Bright

Showout

Top Rated Runners

Shine So Bright/Cosmic Law / Shine So Bright

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers

Trainers

Emaraaty Ana

Cosmic Law – Space Traveller

Jockeys

Shine So Bright (16/1<)

Amaraaty Ana

Semoum (14/1<)

Owners

 

3.35

Trainer Race Pointers

Mabs Cross (2/3,2p)

Washington DC – Battle of Jericho – Declarationofpeace – Sioux Nation (2/8,4p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Battash

Blue Point

Judicial

Abel Handy

Top Rated Runners

Battaash/ Battaash / Blue Point

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers

Trainers

Muthmir

Blue Point

Mabs Cross

Jockeys

Judicial (14/1<)

Owners

Blue Point (9/1<)

Battaash

 

4.15

Trainer Race Pointers

None.

Trainers ‘in form’

Barrys

Indomitable

Sevenhillsofrome

Top Rated Runners

Sky Defender/ Sky Defender / Beat Le Bon

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers

Trainers

Argo – George Mallory

Sevenhillsofrome

Jockeys

Sky Defender

Owners/

 

4.50

Trainer Race Pointers

None.

Trainers ‘in form’

Finniston

Urban Aspect

Top Rated Runners

Crack On Crack On/ Mystic Flight / Crack On Crack On

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers

Trainers

Queens Sargent – Commander Han

Finniston Farm

Silver Quartz – Corrosive

Jockeys

Nicklaus (16/1<)

Owners/

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Stats/trends race

1.55

1m4f Handicap

11/164,36 p (there was a dead heat in 2015, so 11 winners over last 10 renewals)

 

11/11 had 0-1 win over distance (2+ : 0/40,6p)

10/11 had 1-4 places in handicaps (inc wins) (10/79,23p) (1/85,13p outside this)

9/11 had 11 or fewer career runs (9/57,17p)

9/10 had 1 or 2 handicap wins (9/78,19p) (2/86,17p outside this)

8/11 aged 4 (8/69,19p)

Other

10/11 sent off 12/1 or shorter (14/1+ : 1/93,10p)

Track LTO

  • Ascot (3/39,13p)
  • Newm July (3/18,4p)
  • Haydock (2/18,3p)

Trainers

  • Sir M Stoute: 3/9,6p
  • 1 x: Saeed bin Suroor/D OMeara/T Easterby/C Hills/M Johnston/L Cumani/R Varian

Shortlist:

0-1 wins over the distance, 1-4 places in handicaps, leaves just 4…

Never Surrender 5th / Reshoun UP / Titus WON 12s>8s / Archies Affaire UP

11 or fewer career runs: Reshoun / Titus / Archies Affaire

1-2 handicap wins: Never Surrender / Reshoun

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

29 Comments

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  • U.S.Racing Tip – Thursday Evening – Saratoga race 8, 10.02 UK time, Bronze Age. If it is a non runner it will be a no bet night.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 23/08/18 7:16 PM Reply


    • A loser! Since 29 June +45.5 points. I will do a weekly update each Monday from now on as to the performance of these tips.

      martin colwell 24/08/18 10:05 AM Reply


  • A couple of EW bets at York:-
    155 Pacify looks a big price at 12/1 to repeat his CD victory, on his penultimate run, with D Tudhope back in control. He loves this track, 221 on his last 3 visits, and he demolished a similar field by 4.5 lengths with that win. He has form on easy going and the heavier rain isn’t due until later in the afternoon.
    335 Mabs Cross is 18/1, 1/4 3 places with B365, so a strong bet to return a profit behind the odds on fav. As Josh has told us, M Dods targets his sprinters at the meeting and there is rain due from 0900 which will be ideal for her.
    She was only beaten 3/4l by Battash, on good, in May and both her runs since, despite their high quality, were on faster going, so even the win part can come into play for us.

    chrisrees 23/08/18 8:37 PM Reply


  • Christopher Wood Newmarket Friday 14:40 1pt e/w Price available 10/1
    Protected Guest Newmarket Friday 15:45 1pt e/w Price available 9/1
    Solar Flair Goodwood Friday 18:35 1pt e/w Price available 15/2
    Hyperfocus Ffos Las Friday 14:50 1pt e/w Price available 9/1

    Nick Mazur 23/08/18 9:04 PM Reply


    • I had a good look through the race at Goodwood in which you have selected Solar Flair and I came to the same conclusion.
      If there is one other horse in the field who I think if recapturing it’s form could lead them a merry dance is The Boy in the Bar. But that is a Big IF

      gallou 23/08/18 10:55 PM Reply


      • Oh well. Close but no cigar.

        gallou 24/08/18 6:42 PM Reply


  • Well we had a winner at Wolves tonight but unfortunately it was a dead heat so only half winnings. Pride’s Gold led most of the way only to wander right then left in the finishing straight. Nabbed on the line. Those wanderings must’ve cost a few yards. Yorvik Prince also got nabbed close home for what would’ve been a 25/1 place. Close margins. Boohoo!! 🙁 -3.25pts.

    Chelmsford tomorrow. Qualifiers below:
    5.45 Kalissi 4/1
    6.45 Casey Banter 9/2 & Compass Point 4/1
    7.15 War Glory 5/1 & Pactolus 6/1
    7.45 Toy Theatre 5/1
    8.15 Dark Side Dream 10/1
    8.45 Lulu Star 6/1

    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 23/08/18 9:17 PM Reply


  • Any observations/recommendations for Goodwood would be gratefully received guys!

    David Wilson 23/08/18 9:45 PM Reply


    • 635 I had been waiting for Solar Flare on good going; however I noticed this morning that Roussel had been gelded since his last run, and if he returns to his past form tonight, he will win.
      In the last, Pattie, represents some value as a number of factors are more favourable and will get a good ride from the claimer.

      chrisrees 24/08/18 11:12 AM Reply


  • Hi all, just a heads up

    888Sport are offering x6 £5 free bets (win only) at York tomorrow if you place £10 bet on the first race.
    Promo code race888
    I didn’t have an account so signed up. Thought it was worth a mention.
    At the races posted it on Twitter earlier today……

    Darren 24/08/18 12:34 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily/Note
    G 5.05 – Haylah on 3rd run @ 11/2
    N 5.25 – Ginbar on 3rd run @ 13/2
    Festival
    F 2.50 – Mobsta on 2nd run @ 14
    G 6.35 – Dark Shot on 3rd run @ 10

    Over 3 runs
    Festival
    G 6.35 – Poets Vanity on 4th run @ 16
    Mike

    Titus 24/08/18 7:54 AM Reply


    • 2 winners yesterday once again thanks for putting them up

      colin leafe 24/08/18 9:40 AM Reply


      • Cheers Colin,
        They are doing well atm but have the occasional trough. I did find when starting to bet them if I looked at reasons a pick may win I got it wrong so I just do em blind if odds permit.

        Titus 24/08/18 9:56 AM Reply


        • One of my other methods i use have missed a 50/1 and a 25/1 winner in the past 3 months, and also failed to put the extra £20 on an 8/1 winner although i did put the £60 stake on it,however it is frustrating.
          After all these years you never learn,if you are using a method then you have no opinion,other than if there is a drastic change in the going and the horse never performed well on that going.

          colin leafe 24/08/18 10:26 AM Reply


  • Chris M Selections:
    York:
    13:55 – Melting Dew (7/1 in places, 13/2 gen)
    15:00 – Chuck Willis (12/1 gen)
    16:50 – Zap (25/1 gen) ** advised as 1pt EW using 5 places where possible

    Ffos Las:
    13:45 – Sesame (4/1 gen)
    14:50 – Alaadel (10/3 gen)

    Killarney:
    16:45 – Bodhicitta (6/1 gen)

    Chris M 24/08/18 9:42 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh. Something that I am stuck on. Any help gratefully received. Is there a formula/equation for calculating the likely future probability of a method if the number its past bets is known, together with the % strike rate and the ROI? Also, is there a minimum number of past bets required to strengthen that probability (eg 100)?

    MikeC 24/08/18 9:45 AM Reply


    • Hi Mike,
      In all honesty I don’t know! There are folk on here with better maths brains than mine, and maybe someone will chip in. I only pay attention to winning % and relation ship to losing runs etc but of course history is only a guide to any future success. Numbers of past bets as to confidence moving forward is always tricky and depends on the method. The more the better really but with anything trainer/jockey related you won’t ever get big big numbers which is why the behaviour element is key , in trying to predict the future by hoping enough of them remain creatures of habit. The logic/method underpinning any approach is key.. take the advised strategies which have a ratings element. I see them as a constant which gives me confidence in the future, for the likes of flat S6 for example.
      Anyway, don’t think that answers your question but maybe someone will know,
      Josh

      Josh 24/08/18 1:22 PM Reply


    • I don’t know a formula but
      https://www.thestakingmachine.com/
      can do so and you can have a free trial to do your calc. perhaps?

      chrisrees 24/08/18 2:28 PM Reply


      • Thanks, Chris. Will take a look.

        Mike C 24/08/18 9:27 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Newmarket
    3.45 Matewan BOG 3/1
    5.25 Count Otto BOG 11/4
    Chelmsford
    5.45 Macho Lad BOG 7/4
    7.15 Pactolus BOG 9/2
    8.15 Zalshah BOG 13/2

    colin leafe 24/08/18 10:13 AM Reply


  • Just received a text from Mark Garton work rider,googled and facebook via computer him and found nothing,surprise,surprise.
    1.55 York First Nation Fav Charlie Appleby

    3.25 York Blue Point 2nd fav Charlie Appleby
    7.35 Goodwood Simply Breathless Fav Clive Cox

    Wow impressed NO

    And to think i used to ride Shergar so send me Colin £500 and will send you the name of a fav may be 1/10 on but hey ho every grand you put on you will win £100.

    colin leafe 24/08/18 11:02 AM Reply


  • Easy at York again today!!!!

    The 1.55 is too competitive to me so I will leave it those who have tipped already on this one. A couple of each way alternatives to the two shorties. In the 2.25 Count Octave was sin The Ebor but has come here instead. In the 3.00 I like Legends Of War in an open race for the Gosden Murphy team. In the 3.35 I have already backed Blue Point at each way prices but Caspian Prince will blast it out the stalls and you never know at the price.
    I will leave the 4.15 alone and in the 4.50 I like Mystic Flight and also Crack On Crack on but the race is very competitive and so will be in the pub at this time. Good luck.
    I am up in London this afternoon/evening with my Cricket guy (I bet on Cricket in the summer as well!) and so will not see much racing, but enjoy York.

    martin colwell 24/08/18 11:08 AM Reply


    • Shame they pulled Count Octave out of The Ebor as I would have had a few quid on and he may well have hacked up?? The place at 20/1 today was not bad though. I have Stratum at 7/1 in The Ebor, but what price would Count Octave have been?

      martin colwell 24/08/18 2:42 PM Reply


  • Chin up Josh. Perhaps earlier in the week you may have risked an extra point on the race but that’s the way it goes. Luck not with you this week but your analysis was pretty close to the mark, as always. This week can be wiped out pretty easily in one go, so roll on tomorrow. Whiskey Sour looks good each way material in the Ebor to me, especially if you can get 7 places with Sky but I’ll wait for your thoughts before steaming in to hard!

    Francis 24/08/18 5:36 PM Reply


    • cheers…yep, close, just not close enough. I think you are spot on there, Nick said the same to me. My fault for blowing 4 points yesterday on races I wouldn’t usually touch… had I gone into the day -9 maybe i’d have been a bit more bullish, and prob backed all three. We should have +11 more but it could be worse, at least he wasn’t 33s. Foolish given his place on the trends, and on the <11 runs stat. His last run was best form in the race also and I thought all that pre race, just whether he would stay. If he did, he was prob going to win like that so should have thrown a dart. Stats shorlists have found 3 of the 4 winners of said races...some of those lists not so short but more positive than negative. On we go.

      Josh 24/08/18 6:02 PM Reply


  • Josh
    You are in the penalty box the hard work has been done you just need a SALAH to finish it off.
    Meaning your shortlists are spot on but you just not fine-tuning the winner at the moment

    Keep putting them up and when one goes in the rest will follow.

    Roll on the 3 milers.

    Mike

    mickeydee 24/08/18 5:46 PM Reply


    • that’s well put really! Always more positives when it’s just the fine tuning/the final shot, but still bloody frustrating. Do all the hard work, and have a focused shorlist on the stats, and leave a 12/1 winner sat there! Bugger. Still, always trying, it will click again.

      Josh 24/08/18 6:04 PM Reply


      • Oh man, you’ll give yourself a breakdown at this rate, I’ve said it before and I’m saying it again you beat yourself up way too much. You stick your head above the parapet most days but I’m sure like me, most people on here don’t expect every horse you point at will come in, especially at the prices you play at. I love reading the logic behind the picks and it honestly makes sense. It’s up to the individual whether they follow you in all of the time, some of the time or, never. I’m certain though that sensible people are enlightened and do not hold you personally responsible if they lose and nor should you ! Keep it up. While I’m on, thanks to all of the contributors on here, I like to think that I know a bit but every day is a school day on here. All the best. A.

        westy2 24/08/18 9:05 PM Reply


  • Josh go and have a beer forget about it,don’t beat yourself up,sadly we always remember the winner which got away,when in Cyprus the saying i love.
    Maybe tomorrow my friend.

    colin leafe 24/08/18 6:28 PM Reply


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