Free Daily Post: York Day 2 (complete)

Re-cap…

The less said about Day 1 the better. That’s how it goes sadly and no excuse but always more frustrating when I don’t get a run for my money. But after days like that the only solution is to work harder. There are a couple of handicaps for me to look at on Thursday and i’ll be back with any tips in the morning. The ‘pointers’ found 5 of the 6 winners, horses mentioned at least once somewhere in the template below, so hopefully some of you may have landed on the odd one of those. On we go…

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BIG RACE TIPS 

(2018 +172.5 points) 

Festival Tips

1.55 – Flawless Jewel – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) 

2.25 – Concierge – 1 point win – 11/1 (bet365/PP) 10/1 (gen) 

3.00 York – 

Afaak – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen)

Original Choice –  1 point win – 12/1 (gen)

Mubtasim – 1 point EW – 33/1 (betfS/PP) 25/1 (gen) (1/5,5p places)

4.15 – Always And Forever – 1 point win  8/1 (gen) 

4.50 – Preening – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) 

 

7 tips in total, 8 points staked, write ups…

I’ve tried something a bit different today (bar the 3pm) and thought I should test myself using the actual research that follows below/in my stats report. Today may help determine how I attack the rest of the meeting as I wouldn’t usually set foot near a non handicap. But, there’s method to my madness and i’ve plenty of points to play with…

Flawless Jewel… before this meeting started Fahey was 4/16,6p + 36 with his 6-6.5f horses that had 1-3 career run, in the last 5 years… 4/9,6p in the last 3. Like a few of these this one is in the ‘could be anything’ category and should appreciate this step up in trip. She couldn’t have done any more LTO and Fahey speaks about her as if there is a tinge of excitement/expectation of a big run. She’s less exposed than most in here and at 9s I thought she may give the top two something to think about. Angel’s Hideaway has the best form and is still improving,but is open to attack from something less exposed, also stepping forward. She isn’t the most straight forward either, edging/hanging right the last twice . She is drawn against the rail as the stalls are stand side today but she is usually held up off the pace…she may need some luck in running if they all come stands side with a wall of horses in front. I’m happy to take on an AOB shortie at the moment given his yard is a bit up and down, but that one has decent form also. Maybe i’ve picked a bad day to take on the shorties, we will find out soon enough! They are not the first…

Concierge….to my SDS meeting stats here and all of his rides in non-handicaps have been worth backing at the last 5 festivals…. 5/22,7p, +109 before this year (that does inc one big priced winner) and he rode a 3rd yesterday in his only non-handicap ride. By the trainer’s admission this has been the plan since his first run and he couldn’t have been more impressive the last twice, winning cosily LTO and running as if he’d appreciate this step up in trip. I was lured in at a double figure price because he’s drawn in box 20 and if yesterday is anything to go by, the nearside is favoured. No doubt that will switch today or it will prove to be a pace bias, but those up the middle/low looked to have their work cut out yesterday. Given the draw SDS may decide to be aggressive and some of the more fancied ones are middle to low and he may be the quickest/best of those drawn high. Maybe he’ll need some luck in running also but given the above I thought i’d have a go at around 10s. The market would indicate that Masaru may be smart but once raced horses haven’t won this yet in 20 renewals, 20 have tried, 4 have placed. So, on that basis he has some questions, esp at his price. Hannon knows what it takes to win this though. This race may prove whether there is a track bias or not as there is plenty of pace low and a few fancied ones down there. Hopefully high can dominate again, and you never know, SDS may make all against the rail! We can but hope. 

3.00 York…

I’ve used the stats/trends below as my main guide in this and have gone for three that show up well, with the trainers of both in great form at the moment. 

Afaak…I suppose I have backed him more with a ‘i want winners’ mindset (rather than finding horses overpriced against their chance to my subjective eyes, which is the only way to win long term) given his place on the stats, and to a point have ignored his odds. The betting gods may punish me for that. He was 7s before Seniority came out and he was going to be a danger to all and I quite fancied him. However, this one is solid, and has been running good races in decent handicaps. He had to wait for a run the last day/had to be switched out, but motored a bit when he was. I suspect Crowley will be aggressive on him here as it looks like he stays further. There is a niggle about fast ground for a few of the main protagonists in here, but not him. He’s also a CD winner which is never a bad thing and if he runs his race, i’d be surprised if he were far away. Hills will hope to improve on his father’s decent record in this race. 

Original Choice… like Afaak shows up well on my race/trends pointers and a few of the ‘through the card’ pointers. 12s did seem a shade too big given his last two efforts and even more so now the fav is out. A repeat of those two runs will put him in the mix here. I’m not quite sure he saw out 10f at Goodwood but ran well, outstayed by the front two maybe. He ran 3 days later in the 8f race when drawn in the car park. He was held up but got the rail and did get a fair amount of luck in running, going close. That was a decent effort and he may appreciate the 20 day break and the better draw here. Doyle is in the form of his life and with any luck he’ll race him prominently, in the right spot. There is a niggle about fast ground for him. I think he’s better with cut but based on that last run, and his double figure price, it’s hard to say he won’t handle it. 

Mubtasim…clearly a poke here but he’s the most interesting outsider of my trends qualifiers, to my eyes at least. Big priced horses have won this race a few times. His draw is just ok, those drawn 3rd widest are 1/20,5p in this over the last 20 years. At the price I was happy to overlook that and in any case I suspect he’ll be dropped in. This horse was a smart two year old but hasn’t replicated that form as yet. He ran in some decent group races aged 2 and 3, won by the likes of Blue Point and Harry Angel, and he got close enough in a couple of them. He also has big field form with a decent run in a 20 runner G3 at Royal Ascot last year and his run in the International Stakes was ok, 3/11 on his side, which was unfavoured. This is his first go over 8f which interested me. He may not stay but then again he could relish it. It could be the making of him. He was running on over Ascot’s stiff 7f LTO as if well worth a go at this distance. Hopefully he can place at worse here for a decent enough return. He should appreciate the pace/set up of the race and I can dream of him scything through and winning going away! An interesting outsider anyway. 

Always And Forever… depending on how the day has gone up to this point I may have hit the bottle by race time, and be hoping that the Ante-Post fav for the Oaks doesn’t show her best. Lah Ti Dar is the one to beat but does come here after a break and there is a niggle over fast ground. She does have a knee action and this ground, in a race with some depth, does pose a question. She is so well bred though and could just be much better than these, but I thought I’d take her on. Brave or foolish, one of the two. It was a toss up between this one and What A Home (some change on her) but I thought the selection was sure to appreciate this fast turf on what they’ve done to date. Cumani is in the best form he’s been in for some time – 5/13,7p the last 14 days and with any luck this one may improve on his record in the race, as per the pointers below. Mr Coolmoore (jockey wise) jumps back on and that is always an upgrade, even from the superb Jamie Spencer. The trainer is known to take his time with horses and hopefully this one can progress again. The front two were clear the last day and she may appreciate this more galloping track. Another interesting outsider in this I thought. If the fav does falter this becomes a very open race. 

Preening…I thought I’d finish off with an easy 15 runner handicap here! I’ve referred to my William Buick stats for this one as per the report below. This ride ticks all of those boxes… those horses with 0-3 career wins, 16/1< shorter SP, 7f-1m6f… 7/24,8p, +76 before this year’s meeting, over the last 5 years. This one steps back from listed company where she’s been running well and she is unexposed in handicaps. I also thought the drop back in trip was interesting and I assume as such that Buick will have her very handy near the front end. Outside of the fav I thought she looked most interesting here and her trainer is known to be a very good with these types. Again the fav may be hard to beat as she was very impressive the last day, having been held up and coming with a wet sail from an impossible position. But, she is up in class, and any fav under 8s or so is always short in a big field when they are a hold up types, as you need plenty of luck. She is a gassy sort, hence why they tried to settle her behind runners the last day. Maybe she’s getting better with experience and they will race her more prominently. I hope not! I thought those two looked the most interesting and have gone for the 7s shot. 

So, that’s the lot for today. 8 points spread around. I’ll keep everything crossed for a better day than yesterday. 

 

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York Ebor Meeting Day 2

York Ebor Meeting Stats Report: Read HERE>>>

Thursday’s race in focus will be the 3pm. 

There is a handicap at 4.50 but only 7 renewals I think and no trends. 

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York Day 2: Through The Card Pointers 

‘Key’

Trainer Race Pointers

Festivals/race trends…Trainers that have won said race 2x or more and have a runner

Trainers ‘in form’

’14Geegeez Symbol as per key (5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr)

Top Rated Runners

Those horses top rated on HorseRaceBase / Geegeez / Inform

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers 

Those horses that hit at least one stat for my trainer/jockey/owner stats report for this Festival

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1.55

Trainer Race Pointers

None.

Trainers ‘in form’

Angle’s Hideaway / Firelight / The Mackem Bullet

Top Rated Runners

Agels Hideaway /Fairyland / Angel’s Hideaway

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers 

Trainers

Queen Jo Jo (16/1<)

Flawless Jewel

Jockeys

Angel’s Highway (8/1< FD m1/m2)

Stage Play

Queen Jo Jo (8/1<)

Owners

 

2.25

Trainer Race Pointers

Fanaar (3/5,5p)

He’Zanarab-Big Baby Bull- Magical Wish-Masaru (2/7,2p)

Celebrity Dancer -Secret Venture(2/355p)

Dream Of Honour (2/23,5p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Barossa Red / Dark Thunder / Gallovie / On The Stage

Top Rated Runners

Kodyanna/ Celebrity Dancer / Alfie Solomons

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers 

Trainers

Fanaar

Celbrity Dancer (16/1<)

Secret Venture (16/1<)

Kodyanna – Pacino

Jockeys

Concierge

Secret Venture (8/1<)

Owners

Jfoul (9/1<)

Fanaar

 

3.00

Trainer Race Pointers

Firmament – Bravery (2/26,6p)

Afaak (Barry Hills was 2/13,4p in this)

Trainers ‘in form’

Sharja Bridge / Arcanada / Baraweez /

Top Rated Runners

Seniority / Hors De Combat / Sea Fox

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers 

Trainers

Firmament – Mythical Madness – Bravery(8/1<)

Get Knotted

Jockeys

Original Choice (15/1<)

Firmament (8/1<)

Owners

Silverline – Reach High (9/1<)

 

3.35

Trainer Race Pointers

Bye Bye Baby-Flattering-Magic Wand (4/24,7p)

Coronet (3/13,9p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Coronet / Eziyra / Horseplay

Top Rated Runners

Sea of Class / Coronet / Coronet

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers 

Trainers

Sea Of Class

Jockeys

Coronet (8/1<, FD m2)

Sea Of Class (15/2<)

Owners

/

 

4.15

Trainer Race Pointers

Awaysandforever (2/12,7p)

What A Home – Snow Wind (2/6,3p)

Sun Maiden (2/20,4p)

Trainers ‘in form’

Alwaysandforever / Lah Ti Dar / Shailene / Sun Maiden

Top Rated Runners

Lah Ti Dar / Sun Maiden / Alwaysandforever – Lah Ti Dar

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers 

Trainers

What A Home – Snow Wind

Isabella

Sun Maiden (4/1<)

Jockeys

Sun Maiden (WB m1)

Lah Ti Dar (8/1<, FD m1/m2)

What A Home (15/2<)

Owners

/

 

16.50

Trainer Race Pointers

Lincoln Rocks- (trainer 3 wins of 7 renewals, inc this horse lastyear)

Trainers ‘in form’

Betty F / Crossing The Line / Homeopathic

Top Rated Runners

Victory Wave / Move Swiftly / Summer Icon

Big Meeting Stats Qualifiers 

Trainers

Lincoln Rocks (8/1<)

Homeopathic (4/1<)

Jockeys

Preening (16/1< WB m1)

Betty F (8/1<, m1)

Move Swiftly (15/2<)

Lincoln Rocks (8/1<)

Owners

Victory Wave (9/1<)

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3.00: Stats/Trends

3pm: 1m Handicap

10/182, 40p

10/10 aged 6 or younger

  • 0/41,7p
  • 7/10 aged 3 or 4

10/10 yet to win beyond 1m

  • Won beyond 1m: 0/66, 15p

8/10 had 2 or 3 handicap wins (8/68,17p, +40)

7/10 top 8 in the weights (exp claims) (7/84,17p, +63)

Track LTO

  • Ascot: 4/34,8p
  • Goodwood: 2/57,13p
  • 1x : York/Chelm/Ponte/Kemp
  • Haydock: 0/15,0p

Trainers

  • D O’Meara: 2/26,6p
  • 1x : K Ryan/W Haggas/D Simcock/H Morrison/H Palmer
  • R Fahey: 0/11,1p
  • M Johnston: 0/12,1p

10/10 stats leave 11…

Afaak / Original Choice / Firmament / Get Knotted / Kynren / Reach High / Mubtasim / Bravery / Sea Fox / Poets Society / Love Dreams

Form that list…

2 or 3 handicap wins: Afaak / Original Choice / Firmament / Kynren / Love Dreams

Top 8 in weights:  Afaak / Orginal Choice / Mubtasim / Love Dreams

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

6 Comments

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  • Blanked yesterday -4 on flat, -2 NH
    C 1.45 – Nyala @ 7
    Y 3.00 – Original Choice @ 12
    Y 4.15 – Alwaysandforever @ 8
    NH
    S 3.10 – Bestwork @ 6
    S 4.20 – Ladies Dancing @ 3
    S 4.55 – Magical Thomas @ 7/2
    F 6.20 – Romanor @ 8
    F 6.50 – Samson @ 13/2
    F 7.20 – Get Home Now @ 17/2

    Titus 23/08/18 9:25 AM Reply


  • Over the cliff with Fanaar in the 2.25 at York. I thought he looked a group horse when I saw him on debut and at Leicester. and also thought Mr Haggas would be saving this one for this meeting. Slight suspicion that he got beat by the jockey lto and the same concern here.
    Hope the draw doesn’t kybosh him. 1pt e/e 10’s on Bf at present.
    Hugh

    alpha2 23/08/18 12:24 PM Reply


  • Dug this out from 29th May, hope I’m wrong about him needing 7f.
    My confidence in Fanaar was rewarded although at times he made it look in question. Mr Haggas had certainly still left something to work on and if he turns up at Royal Ascot (not entered yet) I would think he’ll be competitive although just a slight niggle whether he won’t find something too fast over 6f. Maybe he’s a Chesham horse although I would think he’s better than that. Perhaps he’ll be saved for York.

    alpha2 23/08/18 12:30 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    I hope you backed Cosmic Chatter yesterday ? I secured 10/1 on Tue evening.
    I only ask because you mentioned it in some list or other that I downloaded a while ago ( horses to watch out for or something ).
    I have been waiting for him to get his ground as he is really really well handicapped ( even with this win ).
    You probably gave it in your members club.
    I have stopped posting tips but hope that some people had SDS 4 timer at Ponty recently ( I have stated more than once that he has days like that ). Anyway, that`s enough of slapping my own back. Keep up the good work and thanks for all the enjoyment your writings give many of us :0)

    Kevin Gibbard 23/08/18 12:39 PM Reply


    • Hi Kevin,
      i’d by lying if I said I did, so pre occupied with York that I missed him, and i’m still useless at tracking horses. Thankfully a members tracks/posts my losing tips on next 3 runs/stop at a winner which has been a decent source of profits. Looking back at that one, and he really was a clanger. Well done for getting on. Back with cut for first time since that C4 3rd at Ponte a few starts back, beaten 3l and down 10lb since then, running on GF since. Back into a C6. Well, those are the ones to find and as I look back he jumps out somewhat at 10s, regardless of what he’d have done yesterday. Damn. No doubt he came up in one of my trackers/HRB account and i’ve missed him. Bugger.
      Ah, thanks for those kind words. just need to start adding some profit to them in the free posts!
      Josh

      p.s a member put up the SDS 4 timer and mentioned it strongly as a fun bet as all looked of interest. I think at least one won £2k + on a multiple, and a few others had a piece.

      Josh 23/08/18 1:37 PM Reply


  • Football – Firstly I think that there is some value this evening with Burnley at 5/1 away to Olympiacos. The Greeks are strong at home but are no world beaters.

    The Championship – Norwich v Leeds on Saturday – Both teams score goals and are not great at the back and so we will go over 3.5 goals at 2/1. Rotherham V Millwall on Sunday – Rotherham are fit and strong but lack goals. Millwall struggled in their defeat at Sheffield Wednesday midweek and lack goals away from home. The bet is lay Millwall at 11/10.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 23/08/18 4:03 PM Reply


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