Members Daily Post: 19/08/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Pontefract 

2.30 – 

Appointed (3yo+, + micro TJC/going/age) ES+ H3 I3 13/2 S3A# 

Arrowtown (3yo+, + m age/class move) H1 I3 G3 6/1 S2 S4 S6 

5.10 – 

Round The Island (all hncps) 14 G3 15/2 

Dawn Breaking (all hncps) 14 16/1

 

JUMPS

Southwell 

None. 

Irish Bonus Stats

4.15 – Tikkan Express (all hncps + hncp chase) ES+  14/1 S2 S3A

4.50 – Dark Outsider (all hncps + hncp c) ES+ H3 7/1 S3A 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 21/217,77p, +5.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +177.5)

Daily Tips

2.40 Tramore – Every Chance – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) 

A bit of a flyer here and I could be wide of the mark – he could just be useless. However, he makes handicap hurdle debut here (trainer 2/19 with those) for connections, having done nothing of note in novice/maiden hurdles. He was claimed out of Jamie Osborne’s yard and had some ability on the flat, signing off with an OR 81, having been 92 at one point. In theory, a jumps mark of 89 would indicate he is very well handicapped in this sphere, if transferring his flat ability and ever showing it over jumps. His run LTO, when never put in the race, was after 70 odd days off and no doubt they’ve reluctantly plucked a jumps mark from somewhere- pure guesswork on his jumps form. I found it interesting that the tongue tie returns here, used by Osborne but not for any of his 4 hurdles runs. Danny Mullins has also been booked which caught the eye. He drops back to 16f and drops in class. This is a very very weak race – just awful. It won’t take much winning. It’s one of those where I think he’ll either bolt up or be out the back of the telly early, probably never sighted! I’ll roll the dice as there is just enough there and he was ok on the flat, certainly in the context of this race. 

That will do for today.  A poor day yesterday. Gunmetal was just painful, as is every recent losing tip winning at a double figure price, and as yet I don’t appear very good at picking when to tip them again! I suppose if I thought he was good enough to win the Steward’s I really should have kept the faith as yesterday’s race was much weaker to my eyes. I need to improve at forgiving a horse a poor run, esp at Goodwood, and he wasn’t beaten far. The draw stats got busted but he was draw against the rail, often races prominently and had Fanning on – no shock he tried to make all, and succeeded! It could have been that simple at 16/1. Damn. Terrentum Star’s race was over after 1/2 a furlong, a very bad stumble, game over. There will be other days for him, maybe at York, or Ayr. A 6/1 winner for S6 lifted the mood slightly. Moving on. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Irish Angles – De Bromhead

4.15 Tra – Theatre Dreams 

Paddy Brennan 

2.20 South – Rhythm of Sound 

Tom Lacey 

2.50 South – Flashing Glance 

Irish Raiders

5.00 South – Benny In Milan 

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • Nice to keep the run of good Saturdays going today.
    Blazon Southwell Sunday 17:00 1pt e/w Price available 10/1 Has always been highly thought of at home and given some of his novice and bumper form looks very well treated but hasn’t quite put it together yet although I think Bailey has found him a decent opportunity here. Looks to get an easy lead at a track which favours front runners. They put the first time visor on and looks to have a solid chance particularly as the fav keep disappointing and isn’t doing anything different. Trainer has a solid record here and his last two runners have both placed.

    Nick Mazur 18/08/18 8:49 PM Reply


    • meant to post yesterday, got 12-1 early doors on My Amigo cheers Nick, thanks for posting.

      martin whittle 19/08/18 10:13 AM Reply


    • 3rd will do. Suspect would have been a shorter price if some daft idiots weren’t backing the Irish raider.

      Nick Mazur 19/08/18 5:08 PM Reply


  • a couple i like today
    Pontefract 5-10.Round The Island 8-1, 2 x c&d winner who is now only 3lb higher than last win here and that is cancelled out by jockeys claim hopefully gets his hat-trick.
    Southwell
    3-25. Strongly Suggested 20-1, heart over head with this one as he’s an old favourite of mine.
    5-00. will be backing Nicks selection as a matter of course but will be having a small ew on Ebonys Encore 12-1.

    martin whittle 19/08/18 8:14 AM Reply


  • There are no Recent Tips today.
    Hopefully some of you got the 16’s on Gunmetal
    I’ll update p/l figures later today
    Mike

    Titus 19/08/18 9:53 AM Reply


    • please never mention that horse again haha. Horrid. 🙂

      Josh 19/08/18 9:53 AM Reply


      • aah, just read your late post yesterday.

        Titus 19/08/18 10:07 AM Reply


    • I did get the 16/1. It was also put up by Cleeve Racing Friday evening.

      martin colwell 19/08/18 1:23 PM Reply


  • Off to Thirsk tomorrow, free tickets to Premiere Enclosure courtesy of RUK . I’ll be leaving around 11-30 so any tips/suggestions will be gratefully recieved.

    martin whittle 19/08/18 10:07 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    4.05 Pontefract Autretot BOG 9/2 WH 5/1

    colin leafe 19/08/18 10:11 AM Reply


    • NR

      chrisrees 19/08/18 11:31 AM Reply


  • I’m not a quitter I’m going again today. E/W as always.
    Southwell 3.25 Newton Geronimo 12/1, This is one of them horses you love or hate, backed him when he RR twice over 2 yrs ago has done nothing but improve since.
    Southwell 4.25, Little Windmill 5/1, Another one at the top of his game will need to be but this is still only a class 5.
    Southwell 5.00 Blazon 8/1, Just followed Nick in here,as simple as that.
    Pontefract 5.10 The Amber Fort 10/1, Good on ratings missed break last time .

    Good Luck everyone.

    Greg Phillips 19/08/18 1:10 PM Reply


  • bally marvellous josh …… you are now getting me into the irish racing as well now 🙂 great e/w price twas as good as a 4/1 winner without so much risk !! 🙂

    top ‘o’ the afternoon to u sir !

    there is “every chance” ui will make a profit this afternoon now 🙂 ..or at least no losses 🙂
    bc
    over n out

    BRIAN CRICK 19/08/18 2:51 PM Reply


  • Great pick Josh. Payed 7.0 a place on bf

    Steven Clowes 19/08/18 3:18 PM Reply


  • Good stuff gents, I was on the nose as is my want. I should stop saying I expect it to be ‘all or nothing’ as they often end up placing! That was exciting for a time. A bit outpaced turning for home and sadly those in front didn’t fall in a hole. Still, can’t complain. On we go.

    Josh 19/08/18 4:14 PM Reply


  • U.S. Racing Tip Sunday Evening – Saratoga race 9, 11.02 UK, Max Velocity, 7/1 available now.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 19/08/18 7:15 PM Reply


    • Sorry 10.40 UK time, good luck.

      martin colwell 19/08/18 7:16 PM Reply


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