Members Daily Post: 15/08/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Beverley 

3.30 – 

Alejandro (all hncps) I3 14/1 UP

Pioneering (micro age) ES+ I3 G3 25/1 S3A# 

 

Salisbury 

None. 

 

JUMPS

Newton Abbot 

3.50 – Hoover Fever (m class) 10/1 S2 UP

4.20 – Eric The Red (m TJC) H1 I1  4/1 WON 4/1 

 

Worcester

6.50 – Ruby’s Cube (hncp hurdle) 66/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 19/204,72p, -3.6) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +179.5)

Daily Tips

3.30 Beverley – Be Kool – 1 point win – 25/1 (gen) UP 18/1

3.40 Salis – Billesdon Bless – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) UP 12/1

4.10 Salis – Zambeasy – 1 point win – 15/2 (bet365/BV) 7/1 (gen) 2nd 7/2 (albeit 30p R4)

4.40 Salis – Face Like Thunder – 1 point win – 15/2 (gen) UP 15/2>2/1

7.50 Worc – Majestic Moll – 1 point win – 11/1 (bet365/SkyB) 10/1 (gen)

That’s all for tips today, 09.29, write ups…

With any luck I don’t need a stiff drink come 8pm…

Be Kool… I tipped at York a few starts back and again at Galway where he didn’t get in- Ellison expected a big run there and for the life of me I can’t work out why this one is 25/1. Maybe we are about to find out but that felt twice the price he should be in this. He has plenty of ability and at long last Ellison is in some sort of consistent form, 6/22,12p the last 14 days. This one showed a bit more at Newcastle and I was intrigued to see him over the furthest trip he’s encountered, as I think he may relish it. His dam won over 2m anyway and I had a look at his 8.5f win at Epsom in 2016 which was just silly. He may well have been thrown in off 65 but he came from the clouds and you have to have ability to do that.  He won a York C3 in June of last year where he used his turn of foot in a slowly run race as he did at Ayr in a C4. He is tactically versatile and I think he will see out this trip, and he can race handy or held up. He moves up in trip and down in class here. There’s a chance he hasn’t enjoyed the scorching summer sun either – well, I note that before he won that York race, he bombed out at Ponte, his trainer citing that the extreme heat that day had got to him, worked him up into a lather, he pulled and that was that. I get the impression that he’s a bit of a character but if he puts it all in, he is no 25/1 shot here. Hopefully he behaves himself and settles in the race, as I suspect we will be on the edge of our seats at some point down the home straight if he does. I would fear the Kevin Ryan horse most, Everything For You, and i’m happy to take on the four three year olds. That may prove silly, it usually does, but I thought they all had enough questions in context of price. Stoute is ‘only’ 3/24 here in the last 5 years and i’m not sure he sends many good ones this far north. His price seems short to me but he does have the sort of profile where he may just destroy them, but he was 7/4 the last day and got beat, admittedly in a race that’s working out well. Anyway, Be Kool is a poke but I thought that price was a tad insulting. With any luck the trainer/yards good recent form rubs off on him.

Billesdon Bless… there were a couple here I was slightly on the fence about, and this is one, but I just couldn’t help it at 14s which seemed a tad generous, and price is irrelevant for this yard generally, let alone in a class 1. This horse won this race last year and she is 3/6,5p at the track – she does appear to like it around here. She got no sort of run at Goodwood and would have been closer but for the carnage, having been chopped up almost to a standstill against the rail. Dane O’Neill gets the leg up this time and maybe the jockey change may bring out more, in any case it’s something different and the trainer/jockey have a good record in non handicaps, 14/70,36p on turf in the last 5 years. She will run her race, it’s just whether there is anything better in here and that’s where my deliberations came… Promising Run has to prove she stays 10f and has a penalty which will be tough. Chain of Daisies has won this race before and this does look her perfect rest pattern. Maybe there are excuses for the last two runs but at the prices I thought worth taking on. Crystal Hope is clearly interesting also, having bumped into a G1 horse the last time but beaten well enough, and the 88 days off is a niggle, in the context of price. Moore is on though and a danger. There is a niggle that BB has raced in weaker races than plenty of these and her form may not stack up, but in the end there was just enough there at 14s. She will give it her best, and we shall see how far that takes her.

Zambeasy… well he’s going to look like the winner a long way into this as I think he is the only pace angle in here and he does like to get on with it. He will blast out here and his last two jockeys have arguably done too much from the front on him – they have lit him up, gone for home too early, haven’t kept anything back and he’s been caught. He is running like a well handicapped horse, is 10lb below his last win and should appreciate this smaller field. It was the booking of Fran Berry that caught the eye as he is a very good jockey and hopefully these new hands on the reins can do the job on the front end – he has ridden the horse before which helps. Fast ground is a niggle but he’s run well enough on it before. He’s either going to bolt up here or get caught in the last 50 yards or so I suspect. The two at the top of the market look short enough given their inexperience and the fact they have stamina/race conditions to prove. One or both may relish this test of course and be well in, but worth taking on and they will have to get their skates on to catch the selection at some point. He’s had some subsequent winners in and around him on recent starts also, esp two starts back, where there is some depth to the form for the grade.

Face Like Thunder… well after the three above have run that may well be an apt description! This is another assured front runner I think who could get loose on the front end. Balding is in scorching form as we know, the horse steps into an all age handicap (albeit one with a few 3 year olds in) but more importantly takes a drop in trip…he has run the last twice as if 8f has stretched him and this could be more up his street. The race two starts ago has thrown up plenty of winners also, that were in front of him and behind him that day. He’s only had 5 runs and will show more at some point. This is a ‘no whips’ race which is always a danger, but I liked the fact that he should be on the front end and will hopefully be the one they have to pass.

Majestic Moll…another front runner who ‘could’ get an easy time on the front end…surely one of them is going to hold on?! This one has a fitness question and hence why I wanted double figures. The market may well guide but Lavelle can ready them. As an aside I saw one of her tweets where she’d installed a round deep sand gallop. That may not sound very exciting but it could be significant this season. Most of the big yards have them and they appear to be a good way of building up residual fitness/muscle, without long canters etc. We shall see how that pans out but she may be able to get them fitter at home/get them to see out their races better etc. (copying messrs Mullins/Elliot/Skelton/Nicholls + a few others is never a bad way forward)Anyway, hopefully this lightly raced mare is ready here. She knows how to make all and win, and she drops in trip and in class here. She’s also had a wind op. 20f could be as far as she wants to go and she should be the one they all have to catch. Lavelle is 8/32 with all handicappers here in the last 5 years, 5/17,8p in class 4. (1/2,2p with Wedge on) She will make all at some point in the coming weeks, but hopefully I’m not too early again, as has been the case with many tips.

That’s the lot for today, just the 5! Gulp. Buckle up and best of luck, I’ll hope for two of them going in,three would be dreamland, and i’d probably take one! 🙂

 

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Hmm, nothing to cheer on Tuesday sadly. The first two didn’t pull up any trees but Iconic Code was frustrating. 20s into 11s, she missed the start completely, losing many lengths and had to be held up. She then got stuck on the rail when Makin wanted to make a move, and he effectively couldn’t ride for a furlong or so. She’d have given the winner plenty to think about but can hopefully make amends when getting soft again and breaking on terms. All the more annoying when I left a 16/1 winner sat there in section 1, for Andrew Balding at Ffos Las. Yard red hot, unexposed, stepping up in trip and into an all age handicap for the first time, and on the back of a break- which I never mind for a young horse on the back of a seemingly poor run, odds allowing. Fitness is rarely a problem for that yard if they want them ready, and maybe they had been waiting for the firm to go out of the ground. She was running when the yard was quiet also from memory. I did consider all of that but didn’t get over the line in my head, nor consider just how poor a race it was. Maybe 16s was worth a nibble but easy to say after and she hadn’t shown much of note. Anyway, hopefully some of you landed on her! On we go. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

4.30 Bev – Zihaam

Top of the Class

2.00 Bev – Champagne Clouds 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

52 Comments

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  • Nothing from today’s AW racing, so -3pts.

    Kempton on Wednesday. Qualifiers below:
    6.00 Belle Chanel 7/2
    7.00 Duchess of Avon 5/1
    7.30 Bubbly 7/2
    8.30 Dance Teacher 7/2 & Ptarmigan Ridge 4/1
    9.00 Rock’n Gold 12/1 & Penny Poet 9/2

    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 14/08/18 7:46 PM Reply


  • Flat Jockey Profits

    Poor day with only two short-priced winners for Ryan Moore. -19.71pts for the full list, -15.71pts for the filtered list and if you followed my lead in not backing any of RM’s rides -12pts.

    Three qualifiers for tomorrow:

    James Doyle (Kempton) (4/1 – 10/1)
    6.00 I am Magical 8/1
    6.30 Almurr 10/1
    8.00 Extra Large 5/2*

    *Doesn’t qualify for filtered list

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 14/08/18 8:31 PM Reply


    • Ryan Moors is at Salisbury and rides for Hannon and Stoute. However he does not ride all of Stoute’s runners, as Jim Crowley is on one. It may be owner preference or he rides for Hannon first and then Stoute?
      At Beverley Hanagan rides for Fahey. Tom Dascombe and Richard Kingscote team up for two, 2.30 Five Angels, 16/1 and 5.00 Porchy Party, 7/1. As Beverley is on the other side of the country from their base, they are not just going for the bracing Beverley air surely?
      In the evening James Doyle and Atzeni and Crowley and Spencer head over to Kempton on the sand. The Doyler is on one for Haggas, 8.00 Extra Large and two othersothers.
      Over the sticks Hendo has two at Newton Abbot at short prices with Nico on and one at Worcester in the evening, but Nico does not ride it (evening off). Scu goes to both meetings, Pipe and Tizzard mainly. STD also goes to both for his father and various others. Dickie Johnson is only at Worcester, two for Christian Williams and two for others.

      Two others I like: 7.30 KP, Bubbly, 5/1, who ran with promise FTO and should come on a bit for it. Also 8.20 WOR, Desert Be Bruyere at 16/1. Not the greatest race. The horse has some OK form and Mrs Gasson has some decent form at the track with hurdlers.

      Good luck.

      martin colwell 15/08/18 11:37 AM Reply


  • Undisputed Worcester 18:50 1pt e/w
    Gold Stone Beverley 17:00 1pt e/w

    Nick Mazur 15/08/18 12:08 AM Reply


  • 15:50 NAbb
    HOOVER FEVER 1pt ew
    BULLETPROOF 1pt ew

    16:20 NAbb
    BLEU ET OR 2pt win
    TURBAN 1pt ew

    18:50 Nabb
    UNDISPUTED 1pt ew
    MARVELLOUS MONTY 1pt ew

    good luck with whatever you back today!

    Stewart 15/08/18 6:15 AM Reply


  • getting in practise for tomorrow’s trip to Beverley (notice the subtle hint Josh) i’ll have a go at the handicaps, Hugh has already given me some pointers for the 2yo races.
    3-30. Pioneering 20-1 has been very poor so far this season but came to hand about this time last year finishing with a hat-trick of wins 1 over course and another over CD (1lb higher than that run), the price has drawn me in and i’ll have a small ew punt if all 8 stay in.
    4-00. Golconda Prince 7-1 ground a slight concern but has been running well , ran out of steam finishing 3/11 lto and the drop in trip should suit.
    4-30 Zihaam 11-1, CD winner dropping back into a c5 should be in with a good chance , firm ew bet if 8 stay in.
    5-00 i’ll stick with Nick’s pick.

    martin whittle 15/08/18 6:36 AM Reply


    • haha, please never be subtle with ‘through the card’ requests! Reminding me on that day’s post, from when it’s first put up from 6pm night before, is always advised, as I can often forget! Albeit I won’t this time! I’ll do a ‘through the card’ pointers and go from there 🙂
      Josh

      Josh 15/08/18 7:45 AM Reply


    • Just had an email from Betfair to remind me I am not allowed to place bets in The Sportsbook but they are happy for me to dabble on The Exchange (they charge me premium) or in The Casino!

      How nice of them.

      martin colwell 15/08/18 11:43 AM Reply


  • Thought this might be of interest Kris Jackman Posted Opinions would be interesting .

    Rebecca Bastiman became the first British trainer to be charged with administering cobalt to one of her horses yesterday.

    She was given just a £5,000 fine.

    Whilst her father, former trainer Robin Bastiman, was banned for 3 years.

    BHA stated there was leniency for Miss Bastiman for two reasons.

    Firstly there was no direct evidence that she conspired with her father.

    And secondly she claimed she takes just £80 a week in wages from the business so didn’t have much money.

    Hmmmm.

    I’m not sure how I feel about this.

    Just in case you don’t know, cobalt is naturally present in horses but may have the potential to enhance performance when present at concentrations exceeding normal physiological parameters.

    And I think we’re going to see more and more of these cases cropping up.

    Basically some dodgy trainers are juicing their horses and of course it’s the punters who are being screwed.

    It’s hard enough to pick a winner let alone when some horses in race have been injected with performance enhancing drugs.

    Back to the Bastiman case.

    During the case Robin admitted…

    “I did lie, but I was a bit confused. I probably did do it on this occasion [inject a prohibited substance on raceday], but I can’t be sure.”

    He insisted if he had injected, it was without his daughter’s knowledge.

    Maybe I’m being harsh here but it seems he is just setting himself up to protect his daughter.

    The drugs were ordered from her email address – apparently because Robin did not have one.

    Either she knew all about it and her Dad is protecting her.

    Or she knew absolutely nothing about it and has absolutely no control over her yard.

    I’m not sure which one’s worse to be honest.

    But the only way to stamp out this sort of thing is long bans in my opinion.

    GERALD Garrard 15/08/18 8:16 AM Reply


    • Or….allow performance enhancing substances in horse racing!!! I am always dubious how much actual enhancement is made? I appreciate it may make them less prone to injury or may give some small improvement in performance.
      Years ago I worked at Sport England around the time of the Sydney Olympics. We did have some issues re performance enhancing substances. The studies that were done were that the substances had made them less prone to injury and helped them to keep going but did not make them run faster. I guess that you could apply the same principle to horses? All I am saying is that the actual substances dont make that much of a difference re speed.

      martin colwell 15/08/18 9:09 AM Reply


      • Are you saying there is equivalence between the human and equine conditions?
        If so, what evidence would you offer?
        Would you be in favour of horses, in the UK, running on lasix, ‘milkshakes’, cobalt etc
        How would you define the difference between ‘performance enhancing substances’ and medication?

        chrisrees 15/08/18 10:42 AM Reply


        • I would say that there is limited evidence that humans and horses are completely different and so the effects of drugs would not be totally different between species. I am stimulating debate on the subject. In America they seem OK with Lasix in horses. The sport there is not ruined by it. We do tend to do things differently in the UK. It does not make what we do right or wrong compared to others just different. But this is just my opinion.

          martin colwell 15/08/18 1:34 PM Reply


    • He’s protecting his daughter – and, more crucially, the long established family business, I would have thought.
      It seems incredibly naive of the panel to assume anything other than shared knowledge between the family members about what was happening in the yard over the years. As this included ‘race day injections’ which the rules forbid, they would all be culpable.
      The expense of the material ordered for the injections was going on the yard and owners accounts, using a single email address so the licence holder has total responsibility and a ban is the only feasible penalty. As usual, the BHA fails to deliver justice to the wider public, a matter that has concerned me for many years.

      chrisrees 15/08/18 9:27 AM Reply


      • What on earth relevance does how much she draws from the business have? They cheated, knowingly it would appear. Has to be a punitive ban. Very sorry for her if she didn’t know, but the stable is guilty.

        alpha2 15/08/18 10:08 AM Reply


    • Long bans i agree however it should be a level playing field,not the small trainer being hammered and the big boys having a slap on the wrist.
      Was the boys in blue not giving substances to their horses a few years ago,and let off.
      Top NH trainer last year, another who was giving substances to his horses and let off.

      Anyway have to feel sorry for Bastiman with his statement,
      I did lie,but was a bit confused for he must be related to Corbyn!!!

      colin leafe 15/08/18 10:16 AM Reply


      • Zarooni got banned for years didn’t he? At least 10 I thought. career over.
        It’s increasingly hard to get away with it, the only way you can is to administer something that the authorities/technology as yet hasn’t worked out how to test – that’s why the BHA and others are now storing samples as a matter of course, to be retrospectively tested – the technology was developed to find illegal levels of Cobalt, against the international standards set, and thousands of samples were tested – hence this one getting caught out. You’re playing with fire now if you are juicing horses, as eventually they will get you.

        I think they should have both been banned/seen off, but the financial penalty for Rebecca was due to only having 7k in savings. I suspect they are done for as a racing yard really – I mean plenty of their horses are owned by them anyway I think, and unless you are friends/family etc, i’m not sure why a new owner would send a horse to a tainted yard like that now, but who knows.

        It always befuddles me why you only inject one horse, as per this example. I suspect they have tested everything else in the yard to death now, inc any older samples they had (i wonder if old Borderlescott was on the juice) – I suppose setting up for a gamble is one theory, albeit Cobalt appears to have as many negative side effects as positive enhancement which cannot be predicted, and depends on the genetics of any given horse as to what impact it has I believe.

        Leaves a very sour taste but as with any walk of life that involves people, there is going to be skulduggery somewhere. I think the BHA and others seem to be getting a firm grip on it all now. But, you have to combine the rigorous testing with heavy punishment.

        Josh 15/08/18 10:59 AM Reply


        • Cannot recall anyone receiving a ban but the boys in blue sacked a trainer,and they were still allowed to run their horses,was the reason they were investing to much in British Racing.
          Thinking about the top NH trainer think he got a 3 month ban,nothing like Bastimam’s 3 years.

          colin leafe 15/08/18 12:04 PM Reply


          • I have checked…Al Zarooni was banned for 8 years by BHA.

            Josh 15/08/18 12:07 PM Reply


            • Cheers Josh
              The fact is they were still allowed to run their horses from the same stables after being found guilty, so in effect no punishment,and it was a lot larger scale than the Bastimans.
              Was the trainer only one to know what substances he was giving the horses or did it it go far higher up the chain? the boys in blue stables are run in military style precision,so would be surprised if no one else knew what was going on.
              Rebecca Bastiman has been found guilty on these pages,maybe she did not know,and her father administered the substance alone for more people who knew then their is more chance of it leaking out to the press.
              Still looking for Shergar anyone seen him?

              colin leafe 15/08/18 12:35 PM Reply


              • Yes, the old boy is doing funerals in Essex. He always gets the carriage there on time.

                martin colwell 15/08/18 1:37 PM Reply


                • Love it

                  colin leafe 15/08/18 2:34 PM Reply


      • Supposed to be a politics free zone I think?

        kevo19 15/08/18 11:37 AM Reply


        • indeed 🙂 I just ignored it haha. Racing politics isn’t of course…

          Josh 15/08/18 11:47 AM Reply


          • Sorry was referring to Colins comment about the leader of the opposition, not the racing politics!

            kevo19 15/08/18 11:52 AM Reply


            • oh I know, I ignored it. As will everyone else!!!! 🙂
              It’s horses only on members posts, and sports only on free.

              Josh 15/08/18 11:53 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    B 3.30 – Be Kool on 3rd run (see Fest also)
    N 3.20 – Beat That on 3rd run but odds on so NB
    Fest
    Be Kool nr @ 16 when tipped 5/8 (was reserve)
    3m+
    N 3.20 – Exxaro on 2nd run
    Mike

    Titus 15/08/18 8:43 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    5.00 Beverley Qaaraat BOG 13/2 won over 6 furlong at Leicester,Beverley’s stiff 5 furlong will suit and a good draw.

    colin leafe 15/08/18 10:07 AM Reply


  • Chris M Selections:
    Newton Abbot
    16:20 – Eric the Third (4/1 gen)

    Beverley
    14:00 – Packington Lane (5/1 gen)

    Kempton
    20:00 – Roman Warrior (11/1 gen)

    Forgot to put the result from last week up yesterday, see below for last week and full updates.

    Chris M 15/08/18 10:08 AM Reply


    • Re-Cap w/c 6/8/18:
      22 bets – 0 winners and 2 N/R
      S/R: 0%
      ROI: -100%
      P/L: -20 pts

      Overall:
      264 bets – 51 winnners and 7 N/R
      S/R: 19.84%
      ROI: +10.26%
      P/L: +26.38 pts

      June: -10.4 pts
      July: +33.68 pts
      August: +3.1 (ongoing)

      Was due a bad week and last week was certainly that. Although it was not a full week as I was holiday so some of that loss could have been clawed back. Lady luck just was not on my side last week but that’s the game. Still in profit for the month so nothing to complain about there 🙂

      Chris M 15/08/18 10:14 AM Reply


      • NICE 5/1 winner chris the break has done the trick i thought ya daysppyou were unlucky last week this week lady luck returns h

        paul 15/08/18 3:12 PM Reply


      • two in chris great stuff back with a bang

        paul 15/08/18 4:32 PM Reply


        • Cheers Paul. Back with a bang indeed, needed that confidence boost after last week. Pity Roman Warrior could not catch the leaders to get the treble but 8pts profit for the day, I’ll take that!

          Chris M 16/08/18 8:37 AM Reply


  • Question to everyone…..
    I’ve been looking at my bets since Nov. History is telling me that I do better at the beginning half of every month… A lot better!

    Anyone got any theories to why that would be?

    jarrodholmes68 15/08/18 11:40 AM Reply


    • Is it possible for you to live without knowing the date. Or even better be told its the beginning half of the month all the time. Or maybe your just more motivaytd to hit a target and once you have you relax a little.

      Steven clowes 15/08/18 12:03 PM Reply


      • Mate that first sentence says it all.

        jarrodholmes68 15/08/18 12:07 PM Reply


    • i reckon ….. it’s probably because you have just been paid and you are making less financially affected selections in the first half of the month ……… 🙂 hopefully you will find more scientifical reasons to follow 🙂 ……. mind you what i say is not always correct but i am not normally known to be wrong 🙂

      and remember …………….when the fun stops ………. cry !! 🙂

      BRIAN C 15/08/18 12:06 PM Reply


    • Could be mental fatigue? Depends how much studying you do I suppose and whether you are more switched on in the first 2 weeks, then take foot off gas/more breaks etc, before going again- but that would only make sense if a dip in time/efforts in second half linked to putting plenty in within the first half. That could just be nonsense mind.
      Unless it’s the racing calendar and the meetings that happen first half of month etc you are more suited too..not sure if track X/Y/Z appear more in first half of month say, on cyclical basis.
      That could all be nonsense mind, I haven’t thought about that in too much depth! There could be a logical reason somewhere and the human mind is a strange thing.
      Josh

      Josh 15/08/18 12:11 PM Reply


    • Positive tilt maybe. By that I mean given you’re up for the month already you tend to be over confident and start relaxing your criteria and backing horses you might not have at the start of the month as you have a pot to play with.

      Nick Mazur 15/08/18 12:38 PM Reply


    • Randomness mate.

      martin colwell 15/08/18 1:41 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, hold up performers fare better in 440 sals according to gg pace maps

    jamesm 15/08/18 12:13 PM Reply


    • they do indeed, but I don’t pay much attention to those if I think a horse may get an easy lead. But they may decide to tuck him in and ride him differently. I would never look at the pace maps like that, without looking at the runners in the race, and as such try and find out a hold up horse. The lone front runner is always the best bet, if the horse can do it/jockey has a good clock etc. I can’t currently think of a logical reason why a lone front runner, going their pace, wouldn’t be able to hold on from the front at Salisbury over that trip? …whereas over 10f it’s dynamite to be on the front, but it’s a pretty long straight there isn’t it?
      I could be talking nonsense, but that wasn’t a reason not to go with him in my head. No doubt a hold up performer will win now! Maybe they have plenty of apprentice races over 7f at Salisbury where far too many jockeys do too much on the front end.
      Josh

      Josh 15/08/18 12:21 PM Reply


      • Hmm, well you could be spot on James, all winners so far have come from right out the back! Maybe that’s just how the dice have rolled so far, but for whatever reason been hard to stay at the front so far today. I hope that changes!

        Josh 15/08/18 3:13 PM Reply


      • respect your view, but there is a cut away about 1.5f out which is making them fan out more, so no bad luck stories in behind from those not being able to get a run and of the races ive seen so far, hold ups are winning today. Anyway, im not betting today, been a tough month so far for me so far. Good luck to those who do. Still loving your work! Cheers

        jamesm 15/08/18 3:27 PM Reply


  • Be Kool – just heard from the owner that he is not ‘expecting’ it to win today 🙁
    Like Josh, I thought it worth a bet.

    chrisrees 15/08/18 12:39 PM Reply


    • I don’t think they expected it to win when bolting up at 33s at York 🙂 And I didn’t expect Blessed to win when she won at 16s at Chelmsford! He is over priced against my reading of him/the race. But price is static so market clearly doesn’t agree. 3 of them look like being value losers though, if nothing else!

      Josh 15/08/18 12:43 PM Reply


      • I tend to agree. Owners are terrible judges which is why its best to stay ignorant of what connections think since they get it wrong more often than not.

        Nick Mazur 15/08/18 1:00 PM Reply


      • One to follow, I think after being sent into the lead today…
        The owner’s precise words were ‘I won’t be happy if he wins’.

        chrisrees 15/08/18 3:51 PM Reply


    • Should run a race then today and if it wins what a surprise!! from the owner.
      Down memory lane(64 tomorrow)went to Ascot NH approx 1990 with the owner Mick Killick RIP,he owned Ketti trained by Dai Williams was fancied,went down to the bookies with Mick and he placed £1000 at 4/1,promptly tried to put a mega bet of £20 which was massive for me,the bookie would only let me have 7/2 even though he had not erased the 4/1.
      Ketti sadly came nowhere,however she did produce many foals over a time.
      Mick was a lovely chap and he had 12 horses in training with Dai for many seasons.

      colin leafe 15/08/18 2:57 PM Reply


      • many happy returns for tomorrow colin and many thanks for the posting of your bets everyday

        paul bailey 15/08/18 3:16 PM Reply


  • Saved the best till last!!

    Jim 15/08/18 7:59 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh. You secured us some great value today and deserved that.

    Francis 15/08/18 8:08 PM Reply


  • Great pick Josh. Also Well done with the work to produce the 66/1 placed 2nd from course/trainer /hurdle stats.

    Steven Clowes 15/08/18 8:23 PM Reply


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