Members Daily Post: 11/08/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Ascot

None

 

Haydock

1.55 – Atkinson Grimshaw  (all Hc’s) 10/1 UP

3.40 –

Lamloom    (micro age) H37/1  UP

Just Hiss    (micro dist)

Ghayyar    (micro dist)  w2 14/1 UP

Alemaratalyoum   (all Hc’s)  w2 11/1  WON 11/1>8/1

4.15 –

Ginbar    (all Hc’s, micro TJC) 14 ES+G3 7/1 S3A 3rd 11/4 

Diamond Set (all Hc’s) 14 ES+ 16/1 S3A UP

 

Newmarket (July)

4.20 –

Mountain Rescue (all Hc’s) G3 12/1 UP

Fennaan  (micro runs) 14,30  9/2 UP

 

Redcar

3.30 – Prestbury Park (all Hc’s, micro age/going) 14/1 UP

4.05 –

Masham Star  (all Hc’s, micro age/going) I1 G3 11/1 S2 S6 WON 11/1>11/2 

Hajjam (micro age) H1 I1 3/1  S1 UP

 

Ayr

6.05 – Captain Combat  (1st 2yo) 10/1 

6.35 – Vallarta   (micros dist/class) w2 H3 G3 9/1  S5

7.35 – Maulesden May  (micro dist) I3 G3 12/1 

 

Lingfield

7.45 – Porto Ferro   (micros class and -1 class)  w2 H3 I3 9/2 

 

*

KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 18/199,71p, -7.6) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +179.5)

Daily Tips

1.05 Ascot – Just Glamorous – 1 point win – 25/1 (gen)

4.15 Haydock – Ginbar– 1 point win – 9/2 (gen) 3rd 11/4

4.20 Newmarket

Shanghai Glory– 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) 2nd 8/1

Mountain Rescue  – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) UP

That’s all for tips,…write up…

 

Well I was planning to take the day off on the analysis front but in the end I couldn’t resist some Saturday action, and Sunday looks a far more appropriate day to have a lie in! 🙂 We shall see if this ends up being wise or not…

Just Glamorous… (non runner) I couldn’t help but back the only course and distance winner in the field at these lofty odds… his mark has come down a fair bit since winning a listed race here last season (beating Sir R C in the process) and I thought  a repeat of that run, or even the Leicester effort after, would ensure he out-ran these odds. In that Leicester race he came a decent second to Gracious John, giving him 8lb, and today they race off the same weight. Both those horses mentioned are 8s<, and this one is 25s. Clearly the issue is well-being, but Ron H wouldn’t race him for the sake of it, having burst a blood vessel at Goodwood. Maybe he did too much on the front end there after 2 months off or so. He reappears 11 days later so i’ll take the chance. He probably needed his first run of the season and then ran in a rather decent Group 2. He will try and make all and in any case should be up there in the right spot, as there are a few who can get on with it in here. It could be he has issues and will tail off again, we shall see. I couldn’t help myself at those odds.

Ginbar… I have no idea what’s happening at Haydock, non runners galore – the standard times were rather slow yesterday which makes me think it was anything but good to firm. I suspect this is riding on the soft side of good or certainly no sting in it, and that will suit this horse. I thought 6s was fair and given the R4/a main danger coming out 9/2 is fine, price wise. I’ll back a winner under 6s one of these days… Dascombe is hitting his best form of the season I think, this one generally runs well here, won’t mind whatever the ground is, arrives in form and races up on the pace. He’s still lightly raced and his mark is starting to look workable. He’s fairly smart at his best and good enough to beat this lot.

Shanghai Glory…it’s gone soft at Newmarket and that just made me think there could be a surprise here in what will be a tactically run affair. I thought this one was worth another go at 7f, having not had too many chances and given how he’s ran in some of those 6f races. He may hate AW which will explain his last run, and he probably needed his first run of the season. If he repeated that run in the middle, where he may have won that C2 but for luck in running, he would out-run these odds. Like MR he comes here fresher than some of the market principles and their busy schedules/hard races are going to catch up at some point, hopefully today. He is the only good to soft/soft ground handicap winner in the field. Lake Volta made all on soft at Epsom in a weak listed race.

Mountain Rescue… double figures was too tempting here for one that doesn’t seem to run a bad race at his local tracks. He was ‘only’ beaten 4l in the Bunbury, but I liked the fact he’s gone well on soft/good to soft before and the fact he stays 10f as if this does become testing…and maybe tacky ground if it starts to dry, that extra stamina will be no bad thing. Hopefully he can track the pace and TQ can make plenty of use of him. I thought the jockey booking was interesting enough given he is 5/22,9p when riding C Wall’s handicappers in recent years. I thought the top 3 in the market could be vulnerable for one reason or another, and we shall see if i’ve got that right or not. None of them are overpriced anyway, and do have the odd question in race conditions. Ripp Orf may just be too good for them but this will be tactical, he’ll have to come with a late rattle, and he’s had a few hard races. He’ll be ‘over the top’ at some point. If it’s not today then I could be in trouble and Watson does well in these small fields, as the stats below indicate.

*

I did look at Gossip Column in the 3.25 but 4s generally just wasn’t big enough, esp given the jockey doesn’t know him etc. I thought he would get an easy lead here and could put this lot to the sword. Knowing my luck he’ll now be the only winner mentioned in addition to the 4 tips. He looks progressive and should be the one they all have to pass. He has plenty of ‘hot form’ from recent races also.

*

That’s the lot for today. Thanks for all the Bday wishes, they were much appreciated and I did read every comment, as I always do.

*

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Irish Angles -De Bromhead

7.55 Kilb- All Hell Let Loose

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

If you missed it..

Jason Watson

I did have a quick look into his stats and the only angle of sorts I could find was… for 2018…

-All races

-9 or fewer runners

-horse running at same distance as LTO

-14/1 or shorter SP (a guide, 0/11,1p above this) 

72 bets / 25 wins / 38p / 35% sr / +57 SP / +68 BFSP / AE 1.56 

It’s quite hard to find a ‘way in’ really, and as we saw with his Stewards Cup win, clearly he does ride winners in races outside of said conditions, but this year anyway, they’ve been hard to find. He does ride plenty from the front/just off the pace, so it may make sense that he does better in smaller fields, and learning/judging pace is something that comes with experience, as does track position. Maybe that would explain his figures for races with 10+ runners, which for all rides under 10/1 for example, perform 44% below market expectation (9/75,28p) – albeit maybe they are just over-bet. Anyway, i wouldn’t follow that systematically but interesting nonetheless.

Three ‘qualifiers’ today… (as ‘ways in’ using stats above) 

All Newmarket…

2.35 – Pogo

3.10 – Danceteria

4.20 – Ripp Orf

 

*

Matched Betting…also, if this sort of approach to making money is up your street, this email to the general list may be worth a readHERE>>>

*

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

34 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Well that was an absolute corker of a day on the AW.

    Five winners across two meetings, including Dynamo Walt at 25/1 EW and Beatbybeatbybeat at 11/1 SP/BOG. Total profit for the day after Rule 4 was 28.44pts or £142.20 to £5 stakes. Even better if you used BSP. Around 47pts profit after commission!!

    Chelmsford again on Saturday. Qualifiers below:
    1.30 Albanita 4/1
    2.05 Plansina 10/1 (now 15/2) & Blanchefleur 4/1
    2.40 Out Do 8/1
    3.15 Lucymai 9/2 (now 7/2) & Carolinae 5/1
    3.50 Florencio 13/2 (now 7/1) & Unforgiving Minute 14/1
    4.25 Majboor 8/1 (now 10/1)
    5.00 Sharp Operator 4/1 & Lady of York 13/2

    1pt win each

    Sorry about price changes but at least some are up as well as a few down. Hopefully the ones that have gone up will win 🙂

    I promise I haven’t picked more selections just because we’ve had a top day. It’s just the way the stats fall .

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 10/08/18 9:45 PM Reply


    • tremendous work Ken. Very well done!

      Paul Ebrey 11/08/18 8:32 AM Reply


      • Thanks Paul. You’ve got to enjoy days like that. They don’t come around too often.

        Ken McKenzie 11/08/18 9:23 AM Reply


    • Hi Ken
      Thought that i put the curse on your method,decided to put a few pounds on the bets from 29th July which promptly started a losing run,however yesterday proved to be suburb.
      Cheers
      Colin

      colin leafe 11/08/18 10:56 AM Reply


      • Well done Ken. You have been going well lately. You had that period where you lost a fair bit but you now seem to be clawing it all back. I am still not keen on the volume of selections you have but would always praise winning performance despite that.
        What about different staking plans for the different courses based upon your performance? Do you do better in certain types of races or at certain distances? I am always curious about refining all systems.

        Good luck.

        martin colwell 11/08/18 11:41 AM Reply


        • Hi Martin.

          I have made some adjustments for Newcastle and Kempton as they were the two most difficult tracks to crack. I’ve found that they produce more lower odds winners so my thresholds for these tracks have been lowered to 11/4 and 9/4 respectively. The other four AW tracks are all fairly consistent at 4/1 as minimum odds.

          I’ve also looked at distances and have made some slight adjustments. Again Newcastle and Kempton are slightly different from the other four tracks in terms of what distances seem to be more profitable.

          Overall I’m trying not to tinker too much. I do a review at the end of each month and make some small adjustments based on what the stats are telling me.

          Ken McKenzie 11/08/18 12:18 PM Reply


          • OK thanks Ken, makes sense and we can only see how it goes as with all systems.

            martin colwell 11/08/18 12:22 PM Reply


      • Haha Colin. Yes I’ve had that feeling myself when I start to follow someone new. I think I may have done the same for you in May. You’ve been on a better run since though. Well done.

        Ken McKenzie 11/08/18 12:20 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    Sorry to have missed yesterday. It’s my nippers birthday aswell so was busy. Glad you had a good day and a very happy birthday.

    Cheers

    Ben

    921389 10/08/18 9:52 PM Reply


  • Flat Jockey Profits
    No joy with our one selection tonight so -2pts for the day.

    Three qualifiers on Saturday, as follows:

    Frankie Dettori (Newmarket-J) (4/1 – 14/1)
    3.45 Pennywhistle 4/1

    Adam Kirby (Ascot) (3/1 -14/1)
    2.50 Shady McCoy 15/2

    Oisin Murphy (Lingfield) (13/2 -20/1)
    Amazing Fox 8/1

    Ryan Moore also has 3 rides for Adian O’Brien but as these are at Arlington USA I won’t be counting them for the stats.

    NTF Summer Stunners.
    There is one qualifier on Saturday which meets all the criteria:
    7.55 Kilbeggan – Kylecrue 20/1

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 10/08/18 10:11 PM Reply


  • ITV racing
    must admit i’m not a fan of the Shergar cup at Ascot and it will be fun bets only there. As for the other 3 races nothing jumps off the page but i’ll have a go anyway.
    Newmarket
    15:45 .Pennywhistle 4-1 takes a leap in class here but could be anything and looked interesting that Gosden has entered her here with Frankie on board.
    Haydock.
    13:55. Al Destoor 20-1 looks well treated and with nothing else tickling my interest i’ll take a chance on him ew.
    14:30.Lincoln Rocks 10-1 is due a big race and this could be it, won’t mind if any rain comes.
    Ascot.
    13-05.Foolad 8-1 and Watchable 12-1
    13-40. pin sticking time questions against most in field so i’ll have a stab at Manjaam 16-1 upped in trip.
    14-15. Majeed 8-1 Looks very well-handicapped on old form
    14-50. Medahim 6-1 to defy top weight again.
    15-25. Jazeel 6-1 looked like a step up in trip would suit when winning lto
    16-00. Tangled 16-1 i just have a feeling about this one don’t think we’ve seen the best of him yet and i’m having a fair sized ew bet.

    martin whittle 11/08/18 1:20 AM Reply


  • One of my system bets has thrown up our mullion in the 4.25 at Chelmsford currently 26/1 . Won at Chelmsford likes the distance. Good speed ratings . Going to play it each way 2 places . Good luck if you follow

    jamie2255 11/08/18 8:04 AM Reply


    • sound pick mate

      jarrodholmes68 11/08/18 11:19 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Ascot
    1.05 Tis Marvellous
    3.25 Gossip Column
    4.00 Shaheen
    Ayr
    5.35 Markhan

    colin leafe 11/08/18 10:31 AM Reply


    • Marvellous!

      Chris Murrell 11/08/18 1:22 PM Reply


      • Much needed after knocking on the door a few times in the last few days.

        colin leafe 11/08/18 1:27 PM Reply


      • Yeah slightly kicking myself for that one given she was what I thought my best Steward’s Cup chance last week (this is why you never pick NAPs or vary stakes) but was worried about the 5f so glad you picked it.

        Nick Mazur 11/08/18 1:28 PM Reply


    • Yep well done Colin. Kicking myself for over looking her. Notebook after Wokingham, tipped LTO, appear to have lost faith too soon! either upset pre race or hated Goodwood and quite a drop in level of oppo. Over thought the drop to 5f. Was never going to get outpaced vs lesser op and plenty of pace on paper. Ah always more annoying when recently tipped. Never mind

      Josh 11/08/18 2:25 PM Reply


      • Won over 5 and 6 furlongs and Ascot is a uphill finish so more like a 5 1/2 furlong race for me,anyway a much needed winner.

        colin leafe 11/08/18 2:46 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    BOG prices
    1.05 BOG 15/2
    3.25 BOG 9/2
    4.00 BOG 7/2 4/1 BF TOTE
    5.35 BOG 3/1

    colin leafe 11/08/18 10:35 AM Reply


  • Lincoln Rocks Haydock 14:30 1pt e/w
    Green Power Ascot 16:00 1pt e/w
    Masham Star Redcar 16:05 1pt e/w
    Soldiers Minute Haydock 16:15 1pt e/w

    Nick Mazur 11/08/18 10:55 AM Reply


    • Hat tipped to you sir!
      what a pick!!!!!!
      Enjoy your weekend

      Chris Albin 11/08/18 4:04 PM Reply


      • Masham Star as well!!
        Mazur Star!!

        Chris Albin 11/08/18 4:09 PM Reply


    • Boom for you Nick!! Green Power!!!!

      Nige C 11/08/18 4:05 PM Reply


    • I thought yesterday was a good day but that’s just topped off a great weekend. Genius

      Ken McKenzie 11/08/18 4:13 PM Reply


    • Powerful picking, Nick, you’re a star! Thank you!

      Chris Murrell 11/08/18 4:55 PM Reply


    • Tremendous work Nick. You are a beast!

      Francis 11/08/18 9:11 PM Reply


  • BATTALION 1.55 HAYDOCK got 25s.

    Stable going great guns at present. We know Osborne does well with first time cheekpieces. This horse as worn said headgear in the past when trained by W.HAGGAS.
    The horse as been in Osborne’s care now for 2 years. Never raced in cheekpieces for Osborne. Essentially, this is first time cheeckpieces for said trainer. May be tilting at windmills.

    There was an 100/1 winner on that other site ( i’m not allowed to mention) yesterday. All free too!

    jarrodholmes68 11/08/18 11:15 AM Reply


  • Also like Soldiers Minute NICK

    jarrodholmes68 11/08/18 11:20 AM Reply


  • A little CD system that has been going well recently; I’ll put up todays selections (quite a few of them) with the usual proviso that it will probably hit the dreaded bad run sometime soon (not today I hope)

    Kenny The Captain 2.55 Red
    Carolinae 3.15 Chelm
    Unforgiving Minute 3.45 Chelm
    Mountain Rescue 4.20 Newm
    Tilsworth Lukey 5.00 Chelm
    Midnight Warrior 5.05 Red
    Oriental Lilly 7.05 Ayr
    Royal Duchess 8.05 Ayr

    Andrew Gilmore 11/08/18 12:19 PM Reply


  • Today I like Agrotera, 2.30 HP, only 6/4. He won well at Royal Ascot I think and today will tell us if that forms is any good? I also like Ripp Orf, 4.20 Nkt, only 11/4, although he may be a cliff horse as he keeps looking unlucky in his races and needs to step up and win. Finally I like Reinforced, 8.05 Ayr, 9/2, who likes this course and the trainer seems to think highly of in this sphere.

    U.S. Racing Tip – Saratoga race one, 6.00 UK, Bootlegger. I will do an update on how these tips are doing on Monday.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 11/08/18 12:28 PM Reply


  • More Dascombe winners @ Haddock – Amazing!

    chrisrees 11/08/18 3:14 PM Reply


    • I’ve no doubt picked the wrong one haha. In proper form now. Been quiet for large part of season or certainly not in this form from memory. Firing in all cylinders now.

      Josh 11/08/18 3:17 PM Reply


  • Well that was a fun 30 minutes. Slightly scratching my head about Soldiers Minute given the form of the York race 3 starts ago.

    Nick Mazur 11/08/18 4:50 PM Reply


Post A Reply