Members Daily Post: 09/08/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Yarmouth

3.20 – Aldbury Lass (micro class/age) 50/1 UP

4.20 – Bint Dandy (m class move) I1 12/1 S6 WON 12/1>20/1 

4.50 – King of Dreams (all hncps 5 yrs,3yo+) ES+I3 9/2 S3A

 

Brighton

3.30 – 

Dr Richard Kimble (all hncps 5 yrs,3yo+) ES+H1 I3 G3 6/1 S2 S3A# S4 S6 UP

Whinging Willie (m going) I3 11/1 2nd 16/1 

4.00 – 

Winged Spur (all hncps 5 yrs, 3yo+) ES+H1 I3 G3 13/2 S2 S3A# S4 S6 UP

Hollydaze (m TJC) H3 I3 G3 5/1 S4 S5 WON 6/1

4.30 – Junoesque (m class) I1 G3 7/1 S2 S6  WON 7/1>4/1 

 

Haydock

4.40 – Mac O’Polo (4yo+, all hncps) ES+12/1 S3A UP

5.10 – Poppy Love (all hncps + m TJC) w1 ES+I3 3/1 S3A UP

 

Sandown

8.15 – Whitehall (m age) 14H3  9/4 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 18/196,69p, -4.6) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +179.5)

Daily Tips

3.40 Haydock

Burtonwood – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365/Unib/BetB) 11/1 (gen) UP (close 4th, no excuses, perfect position and jockey gave him every chance)

Wediddodontwe – 1 point win – 33/1 (betfS/PP) 22/1 (gen) UP (awful, not much of promise at all there! I’ll keep an eye on him but that was rubbish)

that’s all for today, write up

Nothing in section 1 really jumped out at me and i hope i’m wrong on a few of them but instead I thought i’d have a go at this competitive looking sprint handicap.  We shall see how wise that turns out to be, but on what looks another moderate day, with plenty of small fields, I couldn’t help myself in this…

Burtonwood – well he arrives in form, having bolted up two starts back in a Thirsk C6, 3rd run after a wind op, having raced close to the pace. He won it very well to my eyes, with a fair bit left at the end. He then moved up in class to Doncaster (same class as today,he’s a C5 winner) where for some reason unknown to me, CR held him up out the back. It proved to be hard to come from that far back albeit he made a mid race move which suggested he was in form, but that energy took it’s toll in the latter stages, finishing in the bunch. Both of his last two races have produced subsequent winners/horses to have run well, and there is some substance. This race lacks any out and out/consistent runners on paper, and I really hope CR reverts to more prominent tactics here. He’s still well handicapped and I couldn’t see an excuse for why he wouldn’t run his race here, his price seemingly a few points too big to my eyes, in what seems an open race where everything has a question or five. This is also his perfect rest pattern, 4/12,6p returning 8-15 days, as against 1/19 16-30, as with LTO. Hopefully the quicker return suits him.

Wediddodontwe – this is clearly a poke and he’s more likely to be tailed off no doubt but given what we know about the yard issues (as below) I decided to take a closer look at him…he is one of the more lightly raced horses in here and you can make plenty of excuses for recent runs, and certainly in the context that he may have been sick- his last two efforts would suggest that. He won on debut in 2016, which I don’t think happens too often with the yard, and they gave the impression he’d develop into an ok sort. He’s since had a few problems before returning this year, with his yard under a cloud.  He’s had another break since his last run and the hood stays on. He does take a drop in class here, and he was never put into the race the last day. It’s not impossible the rain had got into the ground there. This one has led before, and Ali does like taking them to the front if he can- I just wondered whether he may do so again and try to make all. He may need it, he may do too much as can be his want, but his mark is tumbling, and given his profile, if the yard are getting back to some form, this one will be winning before the season is out. It may be significant that they haven’t run him for 54 days or so, waiting for him to come right/issues to pass- that would make sense with the young horses you really like, rather than running the old timers who may be slightly under the weather, but at least you can get their mark down. The fact Beasley is on Hee Haw may suggest today isn’t the day, but I couldn’t resist at 22s+ in this. I’ll roll the dice and see. He’s going to show more in handicaps one day, given the ability he showed on debut.

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re-cap – what a bloody frustrating day! I don’t think i’ve ever backed so many 2nds in an afternoon. Still, at least they’re not falling out the back of the TV. I’m still struggling to kick on with ‘the daily tips’ but the underlying numbers are ok…or maybe I just keep saying the following to myself to improve my mood… but of the 176 losers I have tipped, 51 have placed. If just 8 of those had won, at an average of 8/1 say, that profit pile is then on around +70 points and a more than decent 36% ROI. A game of fine margins, and while clearly unlucky at times, there has been plenty of dross also. I’ll get there! There will be a spike, but I did say that a few weeks back. Thankfully the free tips and festival tips are on +220 odd, so I shouldn’t complain too much, but the daily efforts should be winning 100+ points a year. I’ve still got a few weeks to get my act together. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat

The Doyler

2.20 Yarm- Stakeholder 6/1

R Fell

3.40 Hayd – Muatadel 9/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Some things to read in case you missed them…

 

New Post: a look back at Goodwood and Galway HERE>>>

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Racing Post Musings

Last week I signed up to Racing Post Ultimate which isn’t the cheapest subscription in the world but thought it about time I lived racing a bit more, rather than just analysis etc. I’m not here to seel it, but I have enjoyed reading the paper in the evening on my tablet, and you do pick up various decent snippets, which every now and then i’ll try and share- and with any luck may point us to a few winners in the future. The ‘around the tracks’ section is good, the Monday Jury informative as well as various feature posts etc. I ignore the tipping elements albeit do read the P Kealy articles post race as he knows his onions and it’s good to learn how others read the game. It does also mean I get access to the full racecards also- I won’t really use them for analysis, their racecards are far inferior to Geegeez Gold in my view, and I don’t like being persuaded by too many ratings (RPR/TS etc). You can have too much information. BUT, the analysis sections from previous races i’ve found useful, and you get the trainer quotes every now and then, and can see ‘past winners’ (not covered in HRB unless a trends race). Trainer quotes should always be treated with caution but i remember reading those of Meehan on Bacchus at Ascot (that was before I signed up but was on a free article) which made me have another 5 on at BFSP, and those from Gary Moore today added more meat to the bones. This race has been the target for Lord Clenaghcastle, and that’s always useful to know. The key is to never be put off a horse/bet due to a trainer quote – sometimes they don’t have a clue what they are saying!

Anyway, a few snippets of potential use moving forwards..

Tony Coyle… his string have been struck down with pollen apparently, a bit of sickness, coupled with the fact he has lots of soft ground horses. He had a winner on the 3rd of August, his first since the 1st of January, and he’s had a fair few runners in between….there could be some well handicapped ones now, and his string could be fresher than most when the rains arrive at the back end of the season. A yard to keep an eye on from now on, and to a point you may be able to put a line through any poor runs this year, recent form a tad irrelevant.

Richard Guest…. he also had his first winner at Thirsk on the 3rd of August, 25/1, for a while…since the 2nd of Feb. You have to feel sorry for him- he had a bad batch of hay, which infected the gut of most of his string. Plenty of owners moved horses and it sounds like a torrid time. The dangers of damp hay/a dodgy batch – if you read Hen Knights excellent new book, you realise the importance of feed, and how much attention is paid to preparation/quality/source, esp hay.  Anyway, they seem to be getting over it and again he could have plenty of well handicapped horses on his hands, that are seemingly out of form but have an excuse. There could be a few overpriced horses in the coming weeks.

With any luck focusing on those two yards may reap some rewards in the weeks ahead. It doesn’t mean backing all their runners, but certainly being more forgiving for poor form between Jan and end of July. Some horses will bounce back to winning form seemingly from nowhere, which will delight the crap punters who’ll muse that the game is bent, again.

Jockeys…

I wrote about Jason Watson in the review post, so won’t cover him here.

But, the apprentice title is now there to be won, and Watson, Nicola Currie and Rossa Ryan (backing of Hannon) are all going for it. There could be some decent opportunities there as they are all desperate for winners. It may be a battle of the agents as much as anything, albeit I don’t know who manages the other two. Tony Hind (Watson) clearly knows the time of day though, and if there is a championship to be won, you suspect they try a bit harder to get them on the good ones, maybe ahead of more senior jockeys on the books!

Over in Ireland… in the Monday Jury a bloostock supremo who’s name escapes me said to keen an eye on Sean Davis and Ben Coen, two of the most talented young claimers over there.

When time allows I will do some digging into those 5, and see if there are any angles to keep an eye on.

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Hopefully something of use in there! As always, if you do land on any horses , using such starting points above as a way in, do post a comment and let us all know 🙂

 

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Results Update  

(16th July-5th August) 

Summary below, links in Key for Jumps + Flat Strategies will be updated next week

Summary

TOTAL (strategies) (Section 1):

  • JUMPS – S1 (/) S2 (2/15,6p, +15, +14.7 BFSP) S2A (subset of S2… 0/7,3p, -7) S3 (0/2,0p, -2) S3A (2/4,3p, +1.16) S3A# (2/4,3p, +1.16) S4 (/) S5 (1/5,2p,+10, +18 BFSP)
  • FLAT 2018: S1 (4/16,6p, -0.65) S2 (6/28,11p, -2.5) S3A (5/31,6p, +2.35) S3A# (3/8,4p, +14.35)  S4 (3/20,6p, -12.25) S5 (1/10,2p, 0) S6 (4/26,7p, +12.4, + 10.6 BFSP)

TEST ZONE

  • Jumps angles: 8/37,10p, +19.5
  • Flat: 8/42, 9p, -7.5

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago w1 / w2)

  • Jumps: 11/26.11p, +41.6 (w1 : 7/16,7p, +14, w2 4/10,4p, +17.6)
  • Flat: 11/55,18p, -5.1 (w1 8/34,14p, -1.6, w2 3/21,4p, -3.5)
  • Total: 22/81,29p, +36.5

Handicap Debut (jumps+flat): 1/3, -0.75

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Of Interest

The three ‘where to begin’ flat strategies (S1/S4/S6) didn’t pull up any trees collectively, 11/62, 19p -0.5 in the last 3 weeks,  They’re on +67.1 (ear/bog) and +78.2 BFSP (where S6 is followed to BFSP) for the year.

S3A# (ES+, +2 or more ratings pointers/red symbols)

That’s starting to tick along nicely, 5/12,7p, +15.6 across flat and jumps in the last 3 weeks, taking it to…

146 bets / 40 wins / 62 w|p / +50.85 

(I suppose a case could be made that this is logically the most sound strategy, given it’s based on the most solid of the trainer stats research, with then two or more horse based ratings pointers to add some context to the ability of the horse, in relation to it’s rivals. There’s no reason it should drop off necessarily) 

‘In form’ horses is looking interesting, especially over jumps…

w1 (section 1 qualifier that won LTO): 15/48, 21p, +12.4 in the last 3 weeks, taking the total across Flat + jumps to

199 bets / 53 wins / 74 w|p / +47

For the Jumps w1, they now sit at 30/97, 36p, +38.75 for the year. If that can be repeated every 100 bets or so, then happy days.

Jumps w2 (section 1 qualifier, won 2 starts back) are now on 14/77,26p, +22.6

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

24 Comments

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  • Blyton Haydock Thursday 14:40 1pt e/w-Price available 8/1
    Deadly Accurate Sandown Thursday 20:15 1pt e/w-Price available 7/1

    Nick Mazur 08/08/18 9:32 PM Reply


    • Great start to the day Nick with Blyton. Very well done

      Paul Ebrey 09/08/18 2:49 PM Reply


      • I was expecting at worst 3rd but more likely 2nd than 1st so its a nice bonus to turn over the 4/7 shot. I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised with the Haydock Dream Team.

        Nick Mazur 09/08/18 2:52 PM Reply


    • Cracking shout as is the norm thanks very much Nick

      Aaron 09/08/18 3:02 PM Reply


  • One 4/1 winner on the AW at Kempton today to give us 1pt profit.

    Newcastle tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    5.15 Orobas 7/2
    6.20 Grey Destiny 7/1 & Rebel State 4/1
    6.50 Jessinamillion 11/1 & Supreme Power 7/2
    7.55 Cross My Mind 5/1 & Chantresse 11/1
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 08/08/18 10:00 PM Reply


  • Flat Jockey Profits.

    A small success for the full list bringing in 1.75pts today. No runners for the filtered list

    Qualifiers for Wednesday below (all at Sandown):

    Adam Kirby (3/1 – 14/1)
    8.15 Deadly Accurate 15/2

    Silvestre De Sousa (5/2 – 11/1)
    6.05 Melya 14/1*
    6.35 Fraser Island 15/8*
    7.10 Knight Errant 6/1
    8.15 Illusional 6/1

    Oisin Murphy (13/2 – 20/1)
    6.05 Royal Dynasty 13/2

    * Does not qualify for the filtered list

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 08/08/18 10:33 PM Reply


    • Re Jockeys today – James Doyle has 3 rides for William Haggas at Yarmouth but is not travelling on to Sandown for the evening meeting.
      William Buick has two rides at Yarmouth, one for Haggas and one for Chris Wall. He too does not travel to the Sandown evening meeting.
      At Brighton Oisin Murphy has two early rides, 2.00 Entertaining Ben and 3.00 Arden Warrior. He then goes off to Sandown for 5 rides for different trainers. He seems to be going for volume and so is having a tilt at the jockeys championship against SDS. Also at Brighton Mark Johnston has two runners, 3.30 Dr Richard Kimble and 4.00 Winged Spur and sends Frannie Norton down there to ride them, who has no other rides.
      At Sandown the top jockeys turn out. As well as those mentioned above, Ryan Moore has 3 rides, including one for Sir Michael, 8.15 Whitehall. SDS has 4 rides , including 2 for Mark Johnston, 6.35 Frazer Island and 8.15 Illusional. Frankie comes out for the evening to ride two for John Gosden, 6.35 Too Darn Hot and 7.10 Mister Ambassador.
      At Newcastle Sir Mark Prescott has one runner, 7.55 Echo Beat, ridden by Luke Morris, who has two other rides for other stables.

      U.S. racing Tips – Saratoga race 5, 8.28 UK, South East is the selection. Since 29 June +16.5, on a losing run at present but the sample size is too small to make any judgement yet.

      Good luck.

      martin colwell 09/08/18 10:11 AM Reply


      • Some interesting musings there,…are you backing any of those?

        Don’t think your Murphy logic is correct in my view…only 3 rides at Sandown from what I can see, the first as first jockey for Qatar racing? Which I assume is why he’s there. No indication as to it’s chance, as 1st time out and owners would want him on for various reasons.

        Also, I don’t think anyone is chasing the jockey’s championship bar SDS are they? He’s 33 ahead of nearest rival Tudhope and 40 ahead of Murphy. Unless SDS gets injured i’m not sure volume of rides is a consideration in that endeavour….whereas it may well be for the apprentice title as discussed…Currie with a 20/1 yesterday…wasn’t on!

        Not sure Buick is bothered about vloume either, given he’s won connections 3.5 million in prize money so far this year, and i’m sure he’s happy with his 7% or so 🙂 or whatever it is now! + his retainer, + all those riding fees for outside yards etc. + international earnings. Probably can’t be bothered to head to Sandown and wants the evening off! 🙂 Appleby doesn’t have a runner there. I’m not sure we infer anything from him not being at Sandown, and Yarmouth isn’t too far if you’re based in Newmarket… he rode that C Wall fav LTO to victory, so makes sense they’d want him on again if possible. – his other ride is for Fanshawe not Haggas.

        Hopefully Franny coming all that way is significant, he still lives in Liverpool, so that’s a trek to Brighton although he does like taking the train apparently! Trainer/jockey 3/11,6p in B handicaps, so I hope they improve on that for the strategies in section 1, albeit on paper I thought they had a few questions on recent form, but given how often he runs some of them, they can just bounce back from nowhere.

        best of luck.

        Josh 09/08/18 10:28 AM Reply


        • I have Mr Murphy on 4 rides at Sandown according to what I am looking, all for different trainers. I may not have considered the owner angle. As his six rides of the day are for six different trainers volume did seem to the order of the day. But yes SDS may be too clear already in the championship.
          Buick is not a volume man, you are correct. I was typing Haggas somewhere else and so stand corrected with him riding for Fanshawe.
          I have backed the two Johnston runners with Frannie aboard. I have also backed the Prescott runner at Newcastle and Mr Ambassador for Frankie and Johhny G.

          martin colwell 09/08/18 10:44 AM Reply


          • Best of luck, hope you’re right about Franny! 🙂

            Josh 09/08/18 10:55 AM Reply


  • 8-15 Sandown Glendun 10-1, beaten 4 lengths by the inform Majboor lto when not pushed all the way to the line , could be a sign that he’s coming back to last years form which could be enough in what looks quite a weak contest.

    martin whittle 09/08/18 6:29 AM Reply


  • The stalemate continues with lady luck, more of the selections not getting the win but in the mix where it counts. Even seems I may have given some of that luck to Josh yesterday…. sorry! I’m away for a long weekend with the family so will be nothing from me until Monday but that means I have one day to claw back some of the losses of this week. Was due a downturn given the performance of late.

    Chris M Selections:
    Haydock
    17:10 – Poppy Love (3/1 gen)

    Leopardstown
    17:20 – Woody Creek (7/1 gen)
    19:00 – Tynamite (16/1 gen)

    Yarmouth
    16:20 – Hunni (7/2 gen)

    Good luck with your betting today!

    Chris M 09/08/18 9:40 AM Reply


    • Yep i’m blaming you! and Martin W for putting a multiple on haha 🙂 GL today.

      Josh 09/08/18 10:01 AM Reply


      • Cheers Josh and GL to you as well. I’m trying to stick to the mantra you gave me last week. Losses where the picks are in the mix should not be seen as a negative, more a positive that you are on the right track and the wins will eventually come, so thanks for that :-).

        Chris M 09/08/18 10:38 AM Reply


        • well it is the only way, can be a depressing cycle otherwise, esp when win SR never higher than 20/25% say, albeit I can dream of those heady heights, but P/L, ROI more important. We will back loads of losers but placed horses are a positive as shows you’re not too far off..and the 2nds can just be bad luck, on another day the horse that beats you does too much/doesn’t get run in behind/ etc etc. All evens out, and as pre my re cap note above – just shows you the potential difference even if just a handful of those placed runners start winning. If I maintain a 35% win/place SR over time, i’d like to think at some point that profit pile will head in the right direction!
          Josh

          Josh 09/08/18 11:05 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Haydock
    2.10 Purple Rock BOG 9/4
    2.10 Berluska BOG 6/1
    3.10 Boudica Bay BOG 5/2
    5.10 Miss Mumtaz BOG 15/8
    Brighton
    3.30 Dr Richard Kimble BOG 5/1
    Sandown
    7.10 Jack Regan BOG 9/4

    colin leafe 09/08/18 10:29 AM Reply


  • I was wondeting why Polar Forest kept underperforming. Now Josh has provided me with a possible solution PF looks like a good bet in the first at Newcastle. I quite liked Majestic Sone but didnt see any value in it. Now Hugh Taylor has put it up there definetly isnt. This will make PFs price more juicy. Sometimes when connections havent got on lets say jockeys give horses bad rides. Lets hope this is the case with MS. I expect PF to drift until about 20 mins before the off. that will the the right time to get on as hughs drifts to a more realistic price. Will have a saver on the fc.
    Needless to say PF in on a good mark
    Likes the course or at least use to. Lets hope it can discover some of its old form. 12/1 but better on exchange about 20 mins before the off. Gl

    Steve Clowes 09/08/18 11:54 AM Reply


  • O’Meara has had 1 2yr old fto winner on the aw. Was here with this Jockey Tudhope. Of those i can see the prices 30000 seems alot. Dam had plenty of aw winners, sire had winners on straight tracks. Dont like the opp on breeding/ form so far. Giving Ollivander ago provided no big drift when on course. 7.25pm Newcastle.

    Steven Clowes 09/08/18 2:46 PM Reply


  • Lovely 15 mins for the stats there!

    Nick Mazur 09/08/18 4:31 PM Reply


    • yes very nice 3 winners best day for a long time for me Bint Dandy was a 2pt bet @20.0 Hollydaze 2.5 pts @7.6 and Junoesque 2.5 pts @7.2 🙂

      martin whittle 09/08/18 6:33 PM Reply


  • Other newcastle picks

    6.20 . Rebel State Viking Way. rev forc Single on Viking Way
    6.50 Polyphony, Honey Badger, Rockley point (fcs combi, tricasts)Single on Badger
    7.55 Peace Prevails.
    8.30 Danish Duke, Racquet. Win Both.
    9pm Qaarat plus rev forc Qaarat and Sparkalex.

    Steven Clowes 09/08/18 4:43 PM Reply


  • Great day for the stats, well done Josh!

    Would have been even better if I could read properly.

    I’ve recently taken the decision not to bet at all before 11am to preserve my accounts.

    My question is – does anyone else only bet later in the day and if so how well do the stats odds hold up?

    I know they hold up just fine for strategies like S6 but does anyone have figures for flat S1 and S4 that they would be willing to share?

    Francis 09/08/18 5:17 PM Reply


  • I have been following a few strategies since becoming a member and I’m well up. Had a bad couple of days and lost a bit. Thought to myself last night that I’d be a bit more cautious today. Feel absolutely sick as a dog that I didn’t back the 20/1 S6 winner.

    Shaun Gannon 09/08/18 6:25 PM Reply


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