Members Daily Post: 08/08/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Brighton

3.10- 

Optimum Time (all hncps 5 yrs,all) w1 ES+ G1  4/1 S3A UP

Lord Clenaghcastle (micro going) w1 H3 I3 11/2 UP

4.10 – 

Cruel Clever Cat (m dist) H3 I3 G3 6/1 S4 S5 UP

Multitask (m going) 4/1  UP

5.10 – 

Buthelezi (m going) H1 I1 G1 5/1 S1 S4 

King Athelstan (m going) (trainer change) 16/1  WON 16/1>9/1 (25p R4) 

Sky Bandit (m going) (handicap debut) 18/1 UP

 

Chepstow

2.00 – Major Valentine (m age) 14,30 I3 16/1 UP

4.00 – Come On Come On (m TJC) H1 G1 3/1 S1 

4.30 – 

Camomile Lawn (all hncps, 3yo+) ES+ H3 I3 G3 3/1 S3A# S4 S5 2nd (head!) 

Fresh Terms (m class) H3 G3 2/1 S5 WON 2/1>6/4

 

Pontefract 

2.20 – 

Make Me (3yo+, + m dist/going) ES+ H3 4/1 S3A UP

Different Journey (3yo+, + m age) I3 G1 6/1 S2 S6 UP

3.20 – Totally Magic (all hncps) I3 G3  11/1 2nd 

3.50 – Mukayyam (3yo+, + m TJC/going) ES+ H3 I3 G3 6/1 S3A# S4 S5 2nd (nose) painful! 

4.20 – Foxtrot Knight (m dist) G3 7/1  2nd 9/2 

5.25 – Round The Island (all hncps) H3 I3 G1 6/1 S2 S4 S6 3rd 

 

Yarmouth

6.50 – Queen Adelaide (3yo+, + m class) G3 25/1 

7.50 – 

Late Change (all hncps 5 yrs, all) w1 ES+ H1 I1  5/2 S1 S3A# 

Raven’s Raft (m dist) 14 12/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 18/194,69p, -2.6) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +179.5)

Daily Tips

3.10 Bright – Lord Clenaghcastle– 1 point win – 11/2 (bet365/BfS/BV) 5/1 (gen) UP – well, that was just disappointing and wasn’t his running. Not sure how to explain that.

3.20 Ponte – Totally Magic – 1 point win – 11/1 (gen) 2nd, decent run, most of them well stuffed, but sadly bumped into one. The ground is riding anything but GF it would appear. Looked exciting for a long way, before the winner loomed up in the straight and breezed past!

4.10 Bright – Watch Tan – 1 point win – 5/1 (gen) 2nd, painful, no excuse, easy lead, couldn’t put it to bed, done in closing stages, ironically the prices flipping over from the morning with the one that finished just ahead of her at Chepstow. Damn.

4.20 Ponte – Foxtrot Knight– 1 point win – 6/1 (gen) 2nd, 9/2, also painful! Fair play to Classic P there, in a scrap from beginning, and somehow had plenty left when looked like I’d swoop past, he’s found plenty. One of those days.

 

that’s all for tips, 09.25, write ups…

Lord Clenaghcastle... yes yes, I can hear you… ‘Josh, you’re tipping something under 6s again, you know you’re rubbish at that end of the market, why?!’  Clearly I can’t help myself but i’d have this LTO winner nearer the head of the market as I think this race will set up for him. This 4YO is a CD winner and a C4 winner who did it a shade cosily at Sandown…reading Gary Moore’s quote on the horse would suggest he wasn’t meant to win there as it was a prep for this race- which is a nice pot to win, especially around here. That makes sense given it was his first run in 38 days and all of his wins had come within 20. It was also over 1f short of his best but the stiff climb no doubt helped. Were that over 8f I suspect he’d have won rather well and would have got more than a 2lb rise. There is plenty of pace on paper in this race with any luck it will collapse. Hopefully he sits behind it, ready to pounce. Optimum Time is a danger and won at monster odds for S6 when last seen, in first time headgear (he’s paid for a few losers since I think) but he did get an easy lead there, he got the rail and this is a different test around here. The headgear may not work again and hopefully it’s no coincidence that his two career wins to date have been at Windsor. If he gets an easy lead here and stays there, then i’ve read the pace wrong. In any case, the selection has a turn of foot so there shouldn’t be an excuse.

Totally Magic… I couldn’t resist at decent odds given her draw and the fact that if every horse repeats recent tactics, she will get an easy time on the front end. She ran well here on seasonal reappearance in May off 62. With the jockey’s claim (rode a winner yesterday and with any luck now has some confidence back,he’d had a torrid month before that) she is now off 55. She then ran at Wetherby after that in a C4, where I suspect there was a problem, given she then had 52 days off before returning at Newcastle. She ran well there but did fade in the final furlong suggesting she needed it. Out 11 days later here, on a track where she has run well, drawn low, and the only out and out front runner in the race, for a trainer who does well at the track – i couldn’t help myself at double figure odds. Hopefully he can get a breather in on the bend and she can cling on in the final furlong. Her price is too big in my view, I wouldn’t have been surprised to see 7s/8s. We shall see. I’d be disappointed if she didn’t place at worse, albeit i’ve said that before!

Watch Tan… maybe the most risky at the odds, a bit on the borderline given she’s yet to win a race (0/4,3p in turf handicaps though) and it’s a Brighton C6. Maybe I need to see a doctor. In any case, the form of Baker and the booking of Cosgrave is what drew me in. Baker’s are going well for the first time this season from my memory and he hadn’t had a winner for a while when this one last ran. With 3 year olds in Brighton handicaps he is 9/33,17p, +83 in the last 5 years… I mean that’s a micro I should probably save! He is 6/23,11p when booking Cosgrave to ride a handicapper here, 4/13,7p when that’s in C6. The horse arrives in some form and ran well the last day. Imbucato was just in front and I couldn’t work out the disparity in price given he is currently 10/3 fav. She’s placed twice over CD which would be a big positive for me, especially over that rival. She does respond for pressure and I should get a run for my money. Hopefully connections can improve on their various stats here. It’s the jockeys only ride on the card and he’s riding out of his skin at the moment also, 8/31,10p in the last 14 days and he’s 8/29,15p at the track with all rides in the last year – he knows his way around better than most. There was just enough there at the price and I thought based on those two CD placed efforts and all of the above, that she could be the one to beat.

Foxtrot Knight... oh dear, in I go again! This really does have to be the last time but the form of his recent runs keeps being franked. Surely this is the day! LTO at Catterick he ran in a race that is still working out well. 4 horses have since won again, one that was a neck in front and 3 that were behind (inc Kinloch Pride who i’m annoyed at not tipping yesterday at 8s, that’s one that got away, poor, for various reasons… his run at Muss was a classic case of perhaps deliberately shooting his bolt on the front end, going too quick, before returning to his fav CD a few days later..rather than him being out of form) The Haydock run (bumped into an in form horse,who has since found his ceiling) and Hamilton run were decent also… beaten by Marnie James there who went close enough in a C3 at Goodwood. All his best efforts have been over this CD and he has a bit of pace to sit behind. Hopefully Classic P and Bondi BB take each other on and FK can just tuck in behind. There are a few in form horses in this, but hopefully the handicapper may have them but I won’t fall off my seat if both those mentioned take this, or indeed another. It is a decent race and he probably need to run in one where everything else is out of form. His mark has dropped and he simply has to pick up a race soon given his ‘hot form’. Surely!

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So, that will do for today. Best of luck if you follow me in, or you can always wait until the next Festival at York! 🙂

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

3.20 Ponte – Al Ozzdi 11/1 3rd 16/1

4.50 Ponte – Two For Two 6/1

Top of the Class

2.50 Ponte – Coolagh Magic 16/1 UP/ Ventura Ocean 5/4 WON 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

New Post: a look back at Goodwood and Galway HERE>>>

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Racing Post Musings

Last week I signed up to Racing Post Ultimate which isn’t the cheapest subscription in the world but thought it about time I lived racing a bit more, rather than just analysis etc. I’m not here to seel it, but I have enjoyed reading the paper in the evening on my tablet, and you do pick up various decent snippets, which every now and then i’ll try and share- and with any luck may point us to a few winners in the future. The ‘around the tracks’ section is good, the Monday Jury informative as well as various feature posts etc. I ignore the tipping elements albeit do read the P Kealy articles post race as he knows his onions and it’s good to learn how others read the game. It does also mean I get access to the full racecards also- I won’t really use them for analysis, their racecards are far inferior to Geegeez Gold in my view, and I don’t like being persuaded by too many ratings (RPR/TS etc). You can have too much information. BUT, the analysis sections from previous races i’ve found useful, and you get the trainer quotes every now and then, and can see ‘past winners’ (not covered in HRB unless a trends race). Trainer quotes should always be treated with caution but i remember reading those of Meehan on Bacchus at Ascot (that was before I signed up but was on a free article) which made me have another 5 on at BFSP, and those from Gary Moore today added more meat to the bones. This race has been the target for Lord Clenaghcastle, and that’s always useful to know. The key is to never be put off a horse/bet due to a trainer quote – sometimes they don’t have a clue what they are saying!

Anyway, a few snippets of potential use moving forwards..

Tony Coyle… his string have been struck down with pollen apparently, a bit of sickness, coupled with the fact he has lots of soft ground horses. He had a winner on the 3rd of August, his first since the 1st of January, and he’s had a fair few runners in between….there could be some well handicapped ones now, and his string could be fresher than most when the rains arrive at the back end of the season. A yard to keep an eye on from now on, and to a point you may be able to put a line through any poor runs this year, recent form a tad irrelevant.

Richard Guest…. he also had his first winner at Thirsk on the 3rd of August, 25/1, for a while…since the 2nd of Feb. You have to feel sorry for him- he had a bad batch of hay, which infected the gut of most of his string. Plenty of owners moved horses and it sounds like a torrid time. The dangers of damp hay/a dodgy batch – if you read Hen Knights excellent new book, you realise the importance of feed, and how much attention is paid to preparation/quality/source, esp hay.  Anyway, they seem to be getting over it and again he could have plenty of well handicapped horses on his hands, that are seemingly out of form but have an excuse. There could be a few overpriced horses in the coming weeks.

With any luck focusing on those two yards may reap some rewards in the weeks ahead. It doesn’t mean backing all their runners, but certainly being more forgiving for poor form between Jan and end of July. Some horses will bounce back to winning form seemingly from nowhere, which will delight the crap punters who’ll muse that the game is bent, again.

Jockeys…

I wrote about Jason Watson in the review post, so won’t cover him here.

But, the apprentice title is now there to be won, and Watson, Nicola Currie and Rossa Ryan (backing of Hannon) are all going for it. There could be some decent opportunities there as they are all desperate for winners. It may be a battle of the agents as much as anything, albeit I don’t know who manages the other two. Tony Hind (Watson) clearly knows the time of day though, and if there is a championship to be won, you suspect they try a bit harder to get them on the good ones, maybe ahead of more senior jockeys on the books!

Over in Ireland… in the Monday Jury a bloostock supremo who’s name escapes me said to keen an eye on Sean Davis and Ben Coen, two of the most talented young claimers over there.

When time allows I will do some digging into those 5, and see if there are any angles to keep an eye on.

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Hopefully something of use in there! As always, if you do land on any horses , using such starting points above as a way in, do post a comment and let us all know 🙂

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

29 Comments

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  • AW racing from Kempton on Wednesday. Qualifiers below:
    7.10 Summer Blossom 11/4
    7.40 Hameem 9/4
    8.10 Native Fighter 7/1
    8.40 Vis a Vis 4/1

    1pt win each

    Similar to Newcastle, the stats show there are more lower priced winners at Kempton than the other AW tracks, so you will see some odds below my usual minimum of 4/1 at both of these tracks going forward.

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 07/08/18 8:30 PM Reply


  • Flat Jockey Profits

    With Jim Crowley pulling out of Nottingham today, only SDS rides count for the stats. So 2 winners on the full list for -1.75pts and -2pts for the filtered list.

    Qualifiers for Wednesday:

    James Doyle (Kempton) (4/1 – 10/1)
    7.10 Deira Surprise 11/10*
    8.10 Magellan 15/8*

    * neither qualify for the filtered list

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 07/08/18 8:50 PM Reply


    • Another interesting FJP stat for you:

      Fri & Sat: Profit +132.00pts/+123.55pts
      Sun-Thurs: Profit -17.70pts/-24.35pts

      First figure on each line is for full list, second figure is for filtered list. Again, early days, but so far there seems to be a trend towards weekends only. This may be explained by the better quality races at the weekend and possibly bigger fields with higher odds.

      I’ll go back to the original data and see if this shows a similar trend.

      Ken McKenzie 07/08/18 10:07 PM Reply


      • Very interesting stats not surprising for top jockeys win top races,looking forward to your research on the old data.
        Thanks for all your hard work in putting the flat jockeys profit up.
        Colin

        colin leafe 08/08/18 6:31 AM Reply


        • My experience is that this correlates to not only quality of racing but also volumes bet and so strength of prices on better horses from top stables. In a week without ‘Festivals’ taking place, 40% of my turnover would be bet on a Saturday due to this. Plus of course some top jockeys will not have that many rides in a mediocre week of racing, being that they are not chasing numbers to win a jockeys title decided by amount of winners rode regardless of quality of race.

          martin colwell 08/08/18 9:17 AM Reply


    • Hi Ken
      Difficult area for the results for Jim Crowley was down in the morning papers and should imagine many would have put their bets on before it was announced that he was not riding,for which i would not have known had it not been for someone putting it up on RTP.
      Not everyone can put the bets on just before every race to check that the right jockey is in the plate,and what if Jim Crowley had ridden in the first two races and then felt ill and did not ride in the last two races,again many would have already backed in the four races.
      To be totally transparent on results then the cut off should be the morning papers declarations of the jockeys.
      Did not back them myself but for my records they go down as minus 4 points.

      colin leafe 08/08/18 6:25 AM Reply


      • Yep I’ve recorded it as a loss for my own bets but as the system is a jockey strategy I don’t think they should be recorded.

        Placing bets in the morning would be better but I’m still working part-time and don’t have the time to check for jockey changes in the morning.

        There will always be some jockey changes, even up to the last hour, so inevitably there are will be some that go through.

        The basis of the original data was jockey stats over the last 3 years. It would only have selected the rides each jockey had and wouldn’t have identified where jockey changes occurred, so I’m just following suit.

        It’s not perfect and many folks will disagree with this approach but that’s tge way I’m recording it.

        Ken McKenzie 08/08/18 8:11 AM Reply


      • I think it all depends on how it is being scored. If you are recording with EP’s and/or BOG , then Colin is correct, if you are taking ISP or BSP then the jockey change races can and should be omitted.

        Tim

        Tim 08/08/18 9:56 AM Reply


        • I’ll note it when a jockey change occurs but I won’t record it in the results. You have the option to record them separately if you so wish.

          Ken McKenzie 08/08/18 12:40 PM Reply


  • Giving Pastoral Player ago Brighton3.10 16/1
    Though maybe ground has gone back to being too firm for pps.
    Worth a pop at 16s

    Steven Clowes 08/08/18 6:55 AM Reply


    • Top picking Steven, well done. Quite a thrill watching him there no doubt, his infamous late rattle! Mine had fallen out the back of the tv so cheering him on for you, albeit this fool didn’t have a saver on! 23.00 on the machine.

      Josh 08/08/18 3:15 PM Reply


    • very well done Steven!!

      Paul Ebrey 08/08/18 3:20 PM Reply


  • Been a frustrating but positive Monday and Tuesday, 6 of the 11 selections have been there at the end but lady luck has not been on my side as of yet! Feels similar to last week and that ended up a good week, fingers crossed for the same.

    Chris M Selections:
    Brighton
    14:20 – Make me (4/1 gen)
    14:50 – Swiss Connection (8/1 gen)
    17:10 – Buthelezi (5/1 gen)

    Pontefract
    16:20 – Foxtrot Knight (6/1 gen)

    Kempton
    18:10 – Blame Culture (11/2 gen)
    21:10 – Roman Warrior (4/1 gen)

    Sligo
    18:00 – Greenpanda (1/2 gen)

    Chris M 08/08/18 9:54 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Brighton
    2.40 Tinto BOG 5/2
    Chepstow
    3.30 Swendab BOG 4/1
    3.30 Jaganory BOG 4/1
    Pontefract
    4.20 Classic Pursuit BOG 7/2

    colin leafe 08/08/18 10:19 AM Reply


  • Average Wednesday quality today – I see at Brighton that there are two Irish trained runners (N Kelly stable). The trainer seems to have a reasonable record on the flat. 1.40 Mighty Whitey circa 22/1 and 5.10 Dark Amber 25/1. Over for the sea air and a trot up the pier?
    Dascombe and Kingscote travel down the M5 to Chepstow for two, 2.30 Sir Victor 1/1 and 4.30 Crimson Skies 22/1. So presumably they are going for the 2.30 and the 2YO and the other is gong along to keep him company? In the 5.00 Praeceps, 5/4. comes out again for Sir Mark quickly after a gallant second LTO.
    At Pontefract Reverend Jacobs, 10/11, makes a quick reappearance in the 3.50 before going further up in the weights. Haggas has James Doyle in the saddle for this one, his sole ride at the course.

    martin colwell 08/08/18 10:53 AM Reply


    • I have just noticed that Mr Kelly also has a runner at Kempton on the sand this evening, 8.40, Isharah, 66/1 in places. He does like an outsider it seems. Also James Doyle travels down from his one ride at Pontefract for two rides on the sand, 7.10 Deira Surprise and 8.10 Magellan.

      martin colwell 08/08/18 11:15 AM Reply


  • Martin
    Just to add to your stable of good tips.
    Mark Johnston has 1 runner at each of 3 venues.
    4.00 C Poets Prince 15/8
    2.10 B Elusive Brand 7/1
    3.50P Star of the East 5/1

    I heard an interview with J Portman where he said he has had 25 winners from 30 horses/runners not sure what. Maybe someone could clarify.
    Today
    7.50 Y Gainsay 9/1

    Good luck

    Mike

    mickeydee 08/08/18 11:16 AM Reply


    • The thing with the Tartan Wizard is that he does send his army of horses all over the place and so it is not unusual for him to have a runner at every meeting, despite travel costs. Jamie Portman is 4/24 last 30 days, 8 places. I did not look back any further.
      I am just curious why trainers do what they do more than anything. Is there method in their madness is the question? If so, does the methodology work?

      martin colwell 08/08/18 11:34 AM Reply


    • Portman has had 25 winners this year. Presumably he has 30 horses in his stable.

      That must be what he meant.

      Chris Murrell 08/08/18 11:47 AM Reply


  • just the £50 ew accum on Josh’s tips.
    sorry that should have read 50p 🙂

    martin whittle 08/08/18 12:24 PM Reply


  • Josh
    A gentle nudge about Chepstow -thanx

    finalflight 08/08/18 12:42 PM Reply


    • Oh i’ve clearly completely forgotten about that, sorry! Always do the gentle nudge on that day’s post, ideally the evening before! Let me have a browse now and i’ll post a comment with any thoughts… check back here at 1.30 or so…

      Josh 08/08/18 12:50 PM Reply


    • Hmm, looks a trappy card…that’s the caveat out the way 🙂

      2.00 – Perfect Symphony / Major Assault (nibble,only as top rated GG, 33/1, and does get a 1st tongue tie, and you never know!)

      2.30 – time for a pint…

      3.00 – Rockesbury (inconsistent bugger) / He’s Our Star (looks strong, but 2/1)

      3.30 – Swendab

      4.00 – pint number 2, Poet’s Prince if you must, assume JF will try and dictate

      4.30 – Sageness

      5.00- Master Grey

      We shall see how those go, don’t all back the same ones, otherwise disaster will ensue haha. And that’s only a brief look! But always method. Best of luck,
      Josh

      Josh 08/08/18 1:31 PM Reply


  • Cheers jit

    finalflight 08/08/18 2:01 PM Reply


  • Apprentices; agree re Coen and Davis, despite the fact that I don’t follow Irish racing closely. Trusted by top stables, I’ve noted.
    Ben has just noted T Ladd (Classic Pursuit 400 w15/8) and I can supplement my mention of Thore Hammer Hansen (Shoyd 440 w9/1) earlier in the season by saying that Richard Hannon said more recently that he can make a top class rider.
    Scott McCullagh has made a quick impression and has the right genes.
    Gavin Ashton has little experience but made a good job of handling Timoshenko imo to win and will get support it appears.
    Rossa Ryan is able, I know, via the Hannon yard; just have a personal reservation as to whether he will make it to the top.
    Eoin Walsh deserves more chances, back from injury; R P Walsh seems neglected.
    G Malune has ridden a lot of winners, mostly in moderate races (always a good indicator), W Cox, Sophie Ralston and the Greatrex boys have plenty of ability too.

    I look forward to a progress report on RP Ultimate; it seem far too expensive for me but your insider’s view will help evaluate it, I hope.

    chrisrees 08/08/18 5:27 PM Reply


    • cheers Chris, some interesting names there.

      oh, well the idea on the RP isn’t for an assessment of it’s worth etc, in terms of on my say so, but i’ll share the odd snippet if I think it may held you and I locate some winners in the future, that we may otherwise have been nowhere near!

      Suspect you’d get a pretty good feel within a month, and i think they do free 1st months promos every now and then. I’m not trained to use it as an assessment tool, i’m wired to geeegeez HRB for that, but it’s my job to be as clued up as I can be in general, so thought i’d give it a go.

      Josh

      Josh 08/08/18 5:36 PM Reply


  • U.S Racing Tip – Delaware race 7, 9.15 UK time, JJ’s Candy, circa 7/1.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 08/08/18 6:43 PM Reply


    • And another, Saratoga race 9, 10.40 UK, Dutching Majestic Dunhill at 12/1 and Stolen Pistol at 9/1.

      martin colwell 08/08/18 6:48 PM Reply


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