Members Daily Post: 06/08/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Ripon

3.00 – Mikmak (m TJC) w1 H1 I3 3/1 S2 

3.30 – Bossipop (m TJC) G3 9/1 

4.30 – Last Chance Paddy (m TJC/dist) 16/1 

 

Windsor

6.30 – 

Mountain Peak (all hncps 5/all) w2 w1 ES+  7/1 S3A 

Blackheath (all hncps 5 yrs/all) w1 ES+ 7/1 S3A

Dark Power (m TJC) I3 G3 12/1 

7.30 – Doctor Wonderful (m TJC) (hncp debut) G3 4/1 

8.30 – 

Grey Galleon (m TJC) 11/2 

Spin Top (m dist) w1 14 H3 I3 13/2 

 

Carlisle

6.15 – 

Mischief Managed (m TJC) H3 I1 G3 15/2 S2 S4 S5 S6 

Eastern Racer (m age) w2 w1 H1 I3 G3 7/4 S2 S4 

7.15 – 

Cadeau Magnifique (m class) I3 14/1 

Scrutiny (m class) 22/1 

Give It Some Teddy (m class move) G1 8/1 S6 

Dark Confident (m class) 28/1 

7.45- 

Storm Ahead (m TJC/dist) I1 6/1 S6 

Silvery Moon (m dist) 20/1 

Jacob Black (m dist/class) w2 ES+ H3 I3 7/2 S3A# 

8.15 – Scottsdale (m age) 16/1 

8.45 – 

Golconday Prince (m class) 8/1 

Unite The Clans (m age) 14/1 

 

JUMPS

Newton Abbot 

2.20 – No No Mac (m TJC) 22/1 S2A 

4.50 – 

Cinevator (hncp chase) 30 w2 25/1 S2A

Mr Sacto (m class) 12/1 I3 S2 S5

 

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 18/186,65p, +5.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +179.5)

Daily Tips

3.30 Ripon – Bosipop – 1 point win8/1 (gen) 9/1, 17/2 in places up

4.05 Cork- Thisonesforollie – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) 

7.15 Carl – Cadeau Magnifique – 1 point win – 20/1 (bet365/SkyB/BV) 18/1 (gen) 2ND 

 

All tips complete, 09.52, write ups…

Bosipop – the first of three speculative punts today but I thought this one was overpriced given his liking for CD (1/7,4p), his falling mark, the return of D Allan, the return to ‘softer’ ground (ie not GF/had plenty of rain, slow side of good with nice covering of grass, apparently), second run after a short mid season break (to avoid GF I assume) and the fact he’s drawn against the nearside rail and has made all before. With no other out and out front runners in the race on paper (albeit SDS is on one and it’s always possible he decides to go forward) I hope Allan tries to make all up the rail and dictate. He should appreciate this step up to 5f and considering conditions were against him LTO, and he probably needed it, the run was ok. I thought there was a bit of juice in his price with the fav the obvious danger…he does have to prove he stays but has gone very close over 6f (and at stiffer tracks) a few times, so should be fine- but a tactical race may not suit. 

Thisonesforollie(non runner) I’ve enjoyed the Irish air this week and thought i’d have a flick through the Cork card to see if anything stood out…well, I couldn’t help but spot Elliot/Russell in a race with a load of connections i’d never head of! (I don’t follow day to day Irish racing that closely/at all really) And it seems a very weak/open race. Russel jumps on for the first time and this one is lightly raced, yet to win. She runs in a mares hurdle here for the first time and after a break-  I just wonder if Elliot has tinkered with something/changed training regime or who knows. She ran well the last twice, esp LTO I thought having watched it back. She travelled like the winner turning for home before fading…that was 7 days after her last run (which was her first of 2018) which she may have needed, and may have bounced here to a point. She may have enjoyed a summer of sun on her back and strengthened up a bit. In any case, were these two to pop up with a 14/1 winner in a race like this and I didn’t have a go, i’d be kicking myself after the race I think – especially given Elliot has had a quiet spell but by his own admission from an interview at Galway, he’s starting to crank up the team again. Assuming this one needs decent ground, he may not have many weeks left in which to get a win/keep the owners happy. He’ll find the key at some point no doubt, hopefully today. I’ll pay to find out. 

Cadeau Magnifique – well he’s taking a walk in the market but i won’t let that put me off. The booking of Megan Nicholls caught the eye here and she rode him LTO. She’d be one of the better lady riders in the line up for me, outside of the obvious ones like Turner and Richardson. This one ran well 9 days ago, staying on at Newcastle to be beaten by an unexposed Palmer horse, with a big gap back to the rest. He drops back into a C5 here and I just wondered whether a few of these may go too hard on the front end, which can happen in these races- it isn’t impossible they all fall in a hole here and this one may keep galloping and appreciate this stiff finish. He may not of course. His turf record is a bit patchy and he doesn’t win very often, but there were a few things of interest there, and he had an inform ratings pointer to support and shows up ok on their dashboard. At the price I couldn’t help myself. He’ll either be held up and just stay there, or will stay on and give us something to get excited about in the closing stages. 

That’s all for today. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Paddy Brennan (14/1<) 

2.50 NA – Walden Prince 

Tom Lacey 

3.50 NA – Sword Of Fate 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

4.50 NA – Massinis Lady 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

NOTE : I’m meandering back to Liverpool this afternoon, having been in Suffolk for the weekend. I’ll endeavour to use my phone as a wifi signal on my lap top, and get Section 1 posted in good time this evening, but worst case it will be by 9.30pm or so at the latest I suspect. 

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Results… I need to update the strategies/section 3 results from the last 3 weeks or so and will do that in the next couple of days. 

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Looking ahead… I plan to write a review post of the week just gone… as always things to improve on and ponder, with a few ideas from Galway to hammer into my head, as it could have been better (it can always be better) and there were a few factors I thought post race after a couple of winners, that I should have pondered pre race in more depth. There was also a theme across both festivals to a point… CLASS… Riven Light / Sharjah / Gifted Master…. All top weights. All essentially ‘Group’ horses in handicaps where weight carried means very little (provided horse big enough to shoulder it) and such horses make trends/stats irrelevant. (thankfully Nick didn’t have my stats blinkers on for the Stewards!) 

York Ebor Meeting… I think that’s the next big Festival on the horizon and i’ll give it a good go as I continue my attempts to improve on the Flat Festivals. I’ll try and do better than Goodwood and as ever the foundation will be in various stats etc. Yet to look ahead and see what races to focus on but it will mainly be the handicaps. I have picked out Flat winners from Festivals at 12s / 50s / 12s / 7s, and a nose 2nd at 18s, so there’s something to build on. Of course it may be no coincidence that 3 of those winners were trained by predominantly NH trainers! 

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Help/anyone like to earn some money….

Festival Tips RESULTS… is there anyone out there who’d like to compile a coded spreadsheet for all of the members FESTIVAL Tips in 2018? Don’t all jump at once now. There wasn’t too much before Cheltenham, but I really do need to keep a proper record, esp to advised/SP/BFSP, with all the columns adding up automatically etc. I can do it myself no doubt but to save me some time, I don’t mind paying someone to do it for me. I may be clutching at straws but if interested do drop me an email, and we can discuss. Willing to pay a fee, £40 maybe. 🙂 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

24 Comments

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  • From Nick…
    Two for tomorrow:
    Ghepardo Windsor Monday 20:30 1pt e/w Price available 28/1
    Give It Some Teddy Carlisle Monday 19:15 1pt e/w Price available 9/1

    Josh 05/08/18 9:26 PM Reply


  • U.S. Racing Tip (Canada) – For those of you still awake on Sunday evening. 10.54 Woodbine, Sine Metu, 20/1 on BET365.

    martin colwell 05/08/18 10:04 PM Reply


    • The selection above finished fourth and so it just missed the places.

      Today we go with Collective Effort, Saratoga race 2, 6.33 UK time.

      martin colwell 06/08/18 11:26 AM Reply


  • Flat Jockey Profits

    Here’s a breakdown of profits by jockey since 29 June (full list then filtered list):

    Frankie Dettori +6.75pts, +10.75pts
    Ryan Moore S1 +2.5, +2.5
    Ryan Moore S2 +4.9, no filter yet
    Adam Kirby +16.5, +20.5
    Silvestre De Sousa -16.0, -18.5
    Oisin Murphy -20.25, -10.25
    Jim Crowley +70.55, +62.5
    William Buick -16.3, -22.8
    Paul Hanagan +9.85, +2.1
    Daniel Tudhope +32.2, +31.25
    James Doyle +29.25, +29.15

    Early days but interesting nonetheless. Monday Qualifiers to follow.

    Ken McKenzie 05/08/18 10:22 PM Reply


  • Flat Jockey Profits

    Qualifiers for Monday:

    Silvestre De Sousa (Ripon)
    2.30 Sienna Says 3/1 (now 11/4)
    3.30 Sheepscar Lad 3/1 (now 5/2)
    4.30 Eyecatcher 2/1 (now 13/8)*
    5.00 Al Kherb 11/10 (now 6/5)*

    Daniel Tudhope (Ripon)
    2.00 Whimsical Dream 6/1

    * does not qualify for filtered list

    Sorry about the price changes but I took the odds before Josh put up his page for Monday.

    Ken McKenzie 05/08/18 10:35 PM Reply


    • Whimsical Dream looks interesting – The Trainer is 3 from 4 with 2 year old’s at Ripon. Tudhope rode 1 of those and also rode a 2 year old winner for Bell recently. The Favorite’s trainer hasnt had a 2 year old winner for 90 days and only 1 2 year old winner here ever.

      James P 06/08/18 10:52 AM Reply


  • AW results

    w/c 30 July: Staked 19pts, Profit -10.2pts, ROI -53.68% or -£51.00 to £5 stakes.

    We started July with a loss of 14pts but still ended up with a profit of 17.3pts so fingers crossed for a similar turnaround.

    Ken McKenzie 05/08/18 10:42 PM Reply


  • Willygolassiego 16/1 e/w 2:20 Newton Abbott
    Billy dylan 10/1 e/w 4:00 ripon
    Kings coinage 10/1 e/w 4:30 ripon
    Daisy chain 9/2 win 8:00 Windsor

    Warren bottomley 06/08/18 3:05 AM Reply


  • Josh – I posted this request against the wrong day – I’m in Sofia went to see CSKA last night (LFC can sleep easy) and arrive back just in time to take a party of 6 to Bath races (at Chepstow) on Wednesday any chance of some pointers please

    finalflight 06/08/18 9:01 AM Reply


    • Yep I’m sure I can muster up something, no problem.

      Josh 06/08/18 10:46 AM Reply


  • I’ve been quiet for awhile, just had to pop on and say great work with Galway. Definitely shown people it’s not just a Mullins and Elliot bingo festival.

    Well done Josh 🙂

    Gavin 06/08/18 9:04 AM Reply


  • Well the Sunday selections were nothing to shout about, still profit from the week. Updated results to follow after this post.

    Chris M Selections:
    Carlisle
    18:15 – Mischief Managed (15/2 gen)
    18:45 – Airglow (7/2 gen)

    Cork
    15:35 – Paris Texas (9/2 gen)

    Curragh
    16:45 – Ducky Mallon (7/1 gen)

    Ripon
    14:30 – Funkadelic (8/1 gen)

    Chris M 06/08/18 9:55 AM Reply


    • Re-Cap w/c 30/7/18:
      37 bets – 7 winners
      S/R: 18.92%
      ROI: 38.12%
      P/L: +14.1 pts

      Overall:
      242 bets – 51 winnners and 5 N/R
      S/R: 21.52%
      ROI: +19.57%
      P/L: +46.38 pts

      June: -10.4 pts
      July: +33.68 pts
      August: +23.1 (ongoing)

      Another good week to keep the winning run going.

      Chris M 06/08/18 10:33 AM Reply


      • Great work Chris, well done

        Paul Ebrey 06/08/18 11:39 AM Reply


      • Great stuff Chris. Can you confirm, are your profits based on 1pt win for each selection?

        Ken McKenzie 06/08/18 12:47 PM Reply


        • Paul and Ken, thank you for the kind words.

          Ken, my selections are to 1pt win on each selection. Although I occasionally post a selection with a note of backing 0.5pt EW, normally when enhanced places are available and the odds are quite high. That being said, the tips I have gave as 0.5pt EW have yet to win or place, food for thought there for me.

          Chris M 06/08/18 1:28 PM Reply


  • Thisonesforollie a NR

    Darren 06/08/18 10:11 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Newton Abbot
    4.20 Salto Chisco
    Windsor
    5.30 Miss M
    Carlisle
    5.40 B Fifty Two
    6.15 Eastern Racer
    7.15 Iconic Belle
    8.15 Tyrell

    August
    Bookmakers SP – 4 points

    BOG – 1/2 point

    colin leafe 06/08/18 10:42 AM Reply


  • Saeed Bin Suroor sends two to Ripon today, 3.00 Fitzsimmons and 5.00 Volcanic. Both ridden by local jockeys. Jim Crowley is there for three rides for various stables; SDS has a number of rides for various stables as well.

    The Nigel Tinkler 3YO races micro previously highlighted by Josh and two runners today – 4.00 Rip Seen The Lyte and 6.45 Car Whinmoor.

    Nothing much else catches my attention today.

    Good luck Martin

    martin colwell 06/08/18 11:10 AM Reply


  • Colin regarding is it possible that you could put the odds next to each horse at the time of posting your bets .

    paul bailey 06/08/18 11:47 AM Reply


  • Fantastic work again last week Josh, thank you. Should Mischief Managed 615 also be S6? Being I1

    kevo19 06/08/18 12:15 PM Reply


    • Cheers Kev, it was good fun. I’ll try and improve on it next year, but i’d bite your hand off for that profit pile there every year forever more! Yep he should, good spot. Missed that code.
      Josh

      Josh 06/08/18 12:18 PM Reply


  • thought Grams And Ounces NA 2-20 is overpriced @ 40-1, just had a couple of quid ew.

    martin whittle 06/08/18 12:25 PM Reply


    • I had a e/w nibble.
      Thanks Martin.

      Warren Bottomley 06/08/18 6:26 PM Reply


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