Members Daily Post: 05/08/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Chester

3.30 – Berkshire Royal (micro dist) w2 H1 I3 G3 6/5 

4.40 – Viscount Loftus (m class) G310/1 

 

JUMPS

Market Rasen

3.10 – Vinnie Red (m class) 7/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 18/186,65p, +5.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +164.5)

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Daily Tips 

NONE.

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Festival Tips

#1 5.35 Galway

Rovetta – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) (15/2 Bet365)

Maze Runner – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) (8/1 Bet365) 

#2 2.15 Galway 

Ingleby McKenzie – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) 

Always Resolute – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) 

#3 2.45 Galway

Smitty Becall – 1 point win – 9/1 (bet365/WH) 8/1 (gen)

#4 3.55 Galway 

Be Kool – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) 

#5 5.00 Galway 

Show And Go – 1 point win – 10/1 (PP/BetfS) 9/1 (gen)

 

ALL TIPS POSTED, as of 11am. Write ups…

 

It’s likely that the 28.5 points from Galway have gone to my head but we’re still assured a good week whatever happens to day. I’ve gone with instinct on a few and hopefully we get a run for our money…

5.35…

i tipped Maze Runner earlier in the week, hence starting near the end of the card first. He received a shocker of a ride that day in my view and hopefully CK makes amends today. He stayed on well in that race and I thought he looked interesting over this new trip. WM does well with horses making a quick return and is 4/12,7p with such horses running again at Galway having run here earlier in the week, in the last 5 years. Hopefully he can get a more prominent position and this trip unlocks more, which it isn’t certain to do on breeding. In truth he is probably the right price but given I tipped him earlier in the week I wanted to have another go, and even more so after that stat above for WM’s quick returners here. 

Rovetta… hacked up over hurdles here 4 days back and in theory, off 72 on the flat, could have a fair bit up her sleeve. Of course she could bounce but 14f around here on the flat should be fine and she’s clearly in form. They may as well strike while the iron is hot and I thought these two looked the most interesting in here. Fingers crossed one of them can take it. The fav is surely shattered now, this his 3rd run of the week, with stamina to prove. 

2.15 – Ingleby MacKenzie is a winning machine who looked a shade overpriced here and should be closer to the fav’s price to me. The ground has dried out for him here just in time and with solid big field form, I saw no reason why he wouldn’t go close. The jockey booking caught the eye and she did us a favour yesterday. I expect her to race him prominently enough and thought his form may be stronger than the fav- he would have won earlier in the week but for bungling the last I think, so has a clear chance- but he did put it all in there and it may have left it’s mark. He’s short in that context but if he repeats that run will be bang there. 

Alway’s Resolute… Ellison is 1/5,4p in handicap hurdles at Galway which caught my eye and in first time CP, I couldn’t resist at 14s. Good to see some money coming. His opening handicap hurdle mark was in the mid 130s and now, on the 9th handicap hurdle off his life, he’s down to 104. It could be some decent novice form kept it high enough but he seems well handicapped now. The ground should be fine (Good to Yielding hurdles, Good on chase track, Yielding – ‘good to soft’ – on Flat) and Ellison’s are going better than they were earlier in the season. He’s had two recent spins on the flat, the last of which was a good run, and was some indication that this may have been a plan. I think this track could suit, but there’s only one way to find out. 

2.45 – Smitty Becall… when flicking through this I couldn’t help note the booking of Geraghty and the fact he also rode this one LTO. For a small yard that probably doesn’t have many decent horses, it could be significant that they’ve looked to use him. This one is old enough for one making his handicap debut but he arrives in top form, having run well this year after a lengthy absence. He won a decent enough maiden hurdle LTO and did it with guts…he was chopped off a few times, switched to the rail, switched back and got up on the line, running through horses in a tight gap. He has guts and usually races up there, just off the pace. He was doing all his best work late there and he’s from a smart staying family- I think he could relish this step up in trip and all in all I thought he was worth a nibble. I thought there could be more to come and he may turn out to be a decent enough horse. Running here this week has also been the plan since that last win and this looks the race of choice, hopefully on BGs advice. 

3.55 – Be Kool… he may not get in here but as 1st reserve he has a bit longer to wait and see if another comes out I think. He’s still in the market and the race is for 16 runners max so does need one to drop out, but i’ll get my money back if he doesn’t run I think! If he does sneak in he would have a chance, on ground which isn’t fast and as such should be better form him. I tipped him at York a few starts back but I don’t think he’s been relishing proper fast and that was an error. He showed a bit more the last day and went close enough in this last year off 4lb higher. He would be drawn in the carpark I think, unless he replaces whatever horse would come out, but along with Nick’s pick, they are the only two proper front runners in the race i think. Were he not to run that would improve the chances of Shared Equity, so every cloud. At this price, given his run in the race last year, and the going, I thought i’d roll the dice at the price. Fingers crossed there’s a non runner, but it doesn’t look too promising and I can’t see him pulling his two other runners out, which may be a signal in itself anyway. 

5.00 – Show And Go… this one bounced back to his best LTO on the drying ground, in first time headgear, and jockey of the moment has been booked- not many of his ability can do this weight, and he must be full of confidence now. This one usually races on the front end, and whether he’ll be good enough to go the early pace, we shall see. I thought what will be decent jumping ground, may not be soft enough for some of the more fancied ones. In truth I homed in on the De Bromhead runners, from the stats below, and this was the one I liked the most. I looked at Calino DAiry but he had a hard enough race in the plate and I wasn’t sure good ground is what he wants. He will race up there too, this is a better trip, and may be worth a saver. But it’s a big ask for a chaser to come out this quickly and his odds didn’t seem overly generous in that context. The Mullins horse could be special but I’d have expected him to be a bit shorter if that was the case, given his profile. We shall see if the money comes but given the break and inexperience for a test like this, is worth taking on. I suspect he’ll run well though. It’s Mullins after all. Clearly the selection needs a few to underperform given the ratings but he arrives here at the top of his game, unlike a few. He’s fit also, and that’s a question for some of them. Hopefully he can bounce out on the ground and play catch me if you can. 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

Top of the Class

2.25 Chest – Spirit Warning 

3.30 Chest – Berksire Royal 

R Fell

5.10 Chest – Mulligatwany 

Jumps

Irish Angles: De Bromhead (16/1<)

5.00 Galway – Calino Dairy / Show And Go / Three Wise Men

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Galway: Day 100 🙂

Mullins Micro 

4.30 – Alelchi Inois/Haymount/Saturnas

5.30 – Maze Runner 

6.00 – Dorrells Pierji 

Henry De Bromhead Micro (16/1< SP) 

4.30 – Devils Bride / Sub Lieutenant

5.00 – Calino Dairy / Show And Go / Three Wise Men 

Others 

none. 

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Given the Galway Tips are 3/12,4p, +28.5 points so far this week i’ve had a good go above. (Goodwood not so great, -13, horrid…but then we do have Nick on the team, so it hasn’t been too bad!!) I’ve thoroughly enjoyed it over there this week and have no idea why anyone who likes jumps racing/festival racing wouldn’t. We’ve had soft ground for the most part, allowing you to attack the jumps races with some ‘winter eyes’. It’s a big Festival that Mullins has targeted in recent years and he came into the meeting on fire. These types of weeks are the only time you can really get a decent price on a Mullins handicapper. He generally sends the good ones (from the ‘summer/spring’ team), and they’re all here to run their race. His runners have been a great starting point this week. Clearly you’d have done well backing them all but that’s easier to say after the week when loads have won, rather than as a sensible strategy before day 1. Although hopefully some of you attacked his micro with some fun money/made a bit on the week. In general it’s a track that favours running on the pace/front third of the field, esp over jumps. Only those classy horses/those with stacks in hand still, can get away with coming from the back/wide (Uradel/Riven Light for example) And it’s a ‘horses for courses’ track, as we saw with Top othe Ra, and Riven Light to an extent. I’m surprised more people don’t attack it with gusto. It’s a stats rich festival, where big names (owners/trainers/jockeys)/well bred horses/those with class, tend to come to the fore, and where you can be confident Mullins is going to have a great week. (and where you know, bar the Plate/big hurdle, Elliot doesn’t bother and would rather be at Perth!) And certain horses that like the place. There has been plenty of great opportunities there this week, and i’m glad i’ve been able to take advantage. It will be getting my attention every year from now on for sure. 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

44 Comments

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  • U.S. Racing Tip Saturday evening – 10.46 Saratoga, Tapwrit, 12/1.

    Friday’s selection was second.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 04/08/18 9:54 PM Reply


    • Not a winner.

      Sundays selection is at Saratoga race 4, 7.41 UK time, Rockford.

      +21.5 points since June 29.

      Good luck.

      martin colwell 05/08/18 12:05 PM Reply


  • Sorry I was unable to put up qualifiers for the Flat Jockey Profits system on Friday or Saturday. Family duties prevailed. Thanks to Chris M and Broadsword for posting qualifiers in my absence

    I’ve been doing a bit of catching up and updated the results for the last few days which are as follows:

    1 Aug: 2pts staked, Profit -2pts for Full List and Filtered List

    2 Aug:
    Full List: 34pts staked, Profit -4.3pts (I’ve included SDS alternative ride)
    Filtered List: 20pts staked, Profit -4.8pts

    3 Aug
    Full List: 24pts staked, Profit +19.1pts
    Filtered List: 18pts staked, Profit +21.1pts

    4 Aug
    Full List: 32pts staked, Profit +19.6pts (including an impressive 5 wins from 8 rides for Jim Crowley which blew my AW tips out of the water!))
    Filtered List: 14pts staked, Profit +4pts

    Ryan Moore S2
    1-3 Aug
    Staked 14pts, Profit -7pts

    Overall since I started recording on 29 June, the full list is sitting at +115.05pts profit, ROI 27.01% and the filtered list is +107.2pts, ROI 31.16%

    All results based on 2pts win up to 10/1 and 1pt ew above that. I had to make educated guesses at night before odds for one or two horses but they will be fairly close to what was available.

    Ken McKenzie 04/08/18 11:02 PM Reply


    • No qualifiers today for FJP

      Ken McKenzie 05/08/18 11:50 AM Reply


    • I saw that Jim C had gone well at Chelmsford on Saturday when looking at the results in the evening. Certainly one to look out for.
      I understand that certain jockeys can ride certain tracks well. Plus their favoured trainers tend to run their horses at those tracks as well.

      Good luck with this one Ken. I would have thought that it would naturally slim itself down, in that some of the micros will not prove profitable, but hopefully evolve in a long term profit maker.

      Good luck with this one Ken.

      martin colwell 05/08/18 12:20 PM Reply


  • giving up on system test for the moment while i take another look and trawl through old results with new filters.
    but being a glutton for punishment i’ll try to pick a few myself, 3 ew pokes for tomorrow(actually today now)
    MR 3-10. Ravished 14-1
    CH 4-40. Club Wexford 10-1
    CH5-10. Berlusca 14-1

    martin whittle 05/08/18 1:32 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    No bet today

    colin leafe 05/08/18 9:27 AM Reply


  • Your comments on Galway are very well put, Josh. There’s too many people dismissing it as simply Mullins bingo.

    I would like to give you a big thank you for taking the time to research the festival properly and then provide well thought out tips.

    You deserved the winners you tipped and those that your stats put up.

    A good job well done!

    Chris Murrell 05/08/18 9:40 AM Reply


    • I completely agree with you Chris. I personally haven’t given it as much attention as I’d like just due to lack of time this week. Its a bit of a shame its on the same week as Goodwood however no excuses particularly to people who claim to be good when the going is soft and spend an eternity moaning about the hot weather. I guess those are just false pretences. You have to give full credit to Josh going in head first and coming out well ahead and anyone who says its just Willie Mullins bingo clearly doesn’t know their arse from their elbow.

      Nick Mazur 05/08/18 10:11 AM Reply


      • Who are you having a go at here Nick?

        Roddo 05/08/18 11:48 AM Reply


      • The ‘Mullins without Ruby’ micro has gone very well this week despite the number of runners it throws up. Clearly the bookies/exchanges are still dismissing his third and bigger string runners and the micro is benefiting from that. The main purpose of micros is to make a profit regardless of what they are made up of. If I could prove that jockeys with spots on their colours riding in handicaps at Haydock Park showed a healthy profit I would follow it (just an example made up by me but is is profitable?).
        Josh did highlight such an approach in his research and so credit to him. I did have it in my mind from previous meetings but Josh planted it there for me for this meeting.

        It is just an approach to betting and not one for the purist I guess. Profit is profit though.

        martin colwell 05/08/18 12:29 PM Reply


        • If you take out on the odds on shot I make it two selections for the micro today, 4.30 Alechi Inois and 5.30 Maze Runner. Remember do not count the Ruby mounts for this.

          martin colwell 05/08/18 12:43 PM Reply


  • yes a/a you are doing a fantastic job josh

    william 05/08/18 9:44 AM Reply


  • on what is a very quite day on the racing front i tend to get a bit bored and have a silly bet and today is no different. a 10p super heinz on the Skeltons 7 runners £12 staked lets see if it makes a profit 🙂

    martin whittle 05/08/18 10:01 AM Reply


  • Well as I keep saying to Josh that I am just as happy to get a 10/1 winner is a class 5 somewhere as one of the big races but yesterday certainly felt good. What a gutsy horse the Gifted Master is and there is no one on the flat who is better value for his 5lbs at the moment than Jason Watson. No Prosecco for me yesterday so these are all likely to fall in a hole.

    Vendredi Trois Market Rasen 15:10 1pt e/w Price available 12/1
    Lough Salt Market Rasen 15:40 1pt e/w Price available 13/2 (was about a point or so higher when I backed it)
    Mutoondresdashorse Market Rasen 16:15 1pt e/w Price available 12/1
    Shared Equity Galway 15:55 1pt e/w Price available 14/1

    Nick Mazur 05/08/18 10:01 AM Reply


    • Great work (as ever!) yesterday thank you

      kevo19 05/08/18 10:22 AM Reply


    • Brilliant yesterday Nick. And most days actually!

      Does yesterday make you feel that you didn’t maximise your winnings by only having 0.75pts on?

      Chris Marshall 05/08/18 10:49 AM Reply


      • Not really as it swings both ways. Those big fields are a little unpredictable so just decided to go 0.75pt on any race with 25+ runners. Won’t be many throughout the year. If I did 1pt e/w I might have picked 2 yesterday I would have left out the 2nd most likely.

        Nick Mazur 05/08/18 11:28 AM Reply


    • Unreal tipping yesterday Nick
      Very well done yet again -)

      Andrew Gilmore 05/08/18 11:04 AM Reply


      • Fantastic at Goodwood Nick, I can’t believe it, somehow I managed to miss your post yesterday but a bit of consolation e/w on Solar Flair
        Hugh

        alpha2 05/08/18 12:06 PM Reply


  • There’s a couple of recent ‘notes’ runnign at Galway

    3.55 – Daniels Flyer and Be Kool, both on 3rd run

    also 3m tip
    3.10 – Vendredi Trois on 2nd run
    4.30 – Sub Lt on 2nd run

    and a fest tip
    3.55 – Sors on 3rd run
    Mike

    Titus 05/08/18 10:03 AM Reply


  • Once again thanks to Josh and Nick and to everyone who make this a great site.

    roybedford 05/08/18 11:10 AM Reply


  • 6 pts of profit to BOG means it is another week of profit. Full round up will be with tomorrow’s post as normal. A few caught my eye today, so in a rare occurrence I have a few selections on a Sunday.

    Chris M
    Chester
    13:50 – Jensue (7/2 gen)

    Galway
    14:45 – Antimatter (16/1 gen)

    Market Rasen
    15:10 – Ravished (6/1 gen)

    Just want to say thanks to everyone who comments giving tips, ideas or just general chat. It’s what makes this already amazing site, one of the best horse racing sites out there for me. Josh’ tips alone are worth the subscription fee! Add to that the regular tipsters like Nick, Colin and Ken, my bank has never looked better. Keep up the great work guys and happy punting today 🙂

    Chris M 05/08/18 11:16 AM Reply


  • Morning,

    Totally agree with Josh, looking at those Mullins horses that really stand out apart from the favourites i have managed to find 4 decent priced ones this week that have more than paid to top up my betting account!
    I`ll go against him today in the form of these four against the field in the two big jumps races over there today!
    14:45 Galway
    SMITTY BACALL 7/1 betfred
    My favourite jockey Mr Geraghty is on this one, will hopefully stalk the front three and if he keeps up with them he could spring a surprise! Handicap Hurdle debut also!!
    MAJOR DESTINATION 5/1 gen
    I backed it first thing this morning at 11/1, the value has nearly all gone and I know I will be hit with a R4, but, if he can get a lead this one will take some catching! been transferred back from chases to hurdles and has a tongue strap back on. loads of positives and he will act on this front running specialist course.

    17:00 Galway
    SHOW AND GO 9/1 gen 1pt ew
    Using the De Bromhead angle here ,believe this one is like A Rated, if he can get a good lead, he may take some catching. Snuck in on bottom weight and like i believe he may still more improvement to come!
    BLAST OF KOEMAN 9/2 gen 2pt win
    Again, value has now already disappeared, took 7/1 with 365 this morning, nearly half that now. Has a touch of class this one, could be anything, romp in, or back of TV.Don`t blame me for either!

    15:10 Market Rasen
    VENDREDI TROIS 10/1 gen 1pt ew
    I think like Nick, this one with Dickie on board may upset the Skelton applecart and stop them getting a goliath today.Should be up with the pace which you need to be here and will relish this more testing field.

    Stewart 05/08/18 11:35 AM Reply


    • Ah, good luck Stewart. We did quite well when agreeing yesterday so hopefully we can keep it going. Expecting big runs from Smitty and Show and Go. Should be in contention turning for home, and we shall see if anything gets up the hill in front of them! Part of me thinks Smitty may relish it and pull away in impressive fashion…we can but dream! GL

      Josh 05/08/18 11:57 AM Reply


  • jensue 1:50 Chester 9/2 win
    Banny,s lad 2:35 m/r 15/2 e/w
    Gabriel the saint 3:00 Chester 14/1 e/w
    Sans souci bay 4:40 Chester 16/1 e/w

    Warren bottomley 05/08/18 12:24 PM Reply


    • Was on Bannys Lad at 14s, halved in price then declared a non runner because they took the wrong horse to the track apparently. Now that’s annoying…

      Chris Sengelow 05/08/18 2:43 PM Reply


  • Just a small snippet for the 5pm chase at Galway,
    The last 12 runnings of this race have produced the winner 9 times from 45 bets where the horse ran in a flat handicap or a handicap hurdle LTO
    today has one qualifier in The game Changer at 33/1 trained by some newbie called G. Elliott.

    Chris Albin 05/08/18 4:24 PM Reply


  • nice one josh with show and go.

    william 05/08/18 5:06 PM Reply


    • Great call Josh, a bit of 20s available on the exchange just before the off.

      Johnnyb 05/08/18 5:12 PM Reply


      • Cheers. Yep I did see that. Had another 1/4 at that price. Never mind a drift! Happy with 12s though. Went to plan. Luckily Mullins horse needed it or didn’t stay as well.

        Josh 05/08/18 5:22 PM Reply


        • BOOM! The “King of Galway” follows up with Rovetta!! What a pity the festival is almost over!!!

          Johnnyb 05/08/18 5:37 PM Reply


  • Josh! You don’t half know how to brighten a weekend matey!!!!!

    Nige C 05/08/18 5:36 PM Reply


  • wow, it gets better rovetta flies in,well done josh

    william 05/08/18 5:37 PM Reply


  • Thanks from me too Josh a nice double to end the day

    swoop6 05/08/18 5:40 PM Reply


  • Left it to last two races but well done Josh with two winners on the day

    Stephen Williams 05/08/18 5:50 PM Reply


  • We’ll be calling you the Galway Genius from now on! When is the next Irish Festival?

    Nick Mazur 05/08/18 6:02 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh. No pressure for the York festival then!!

    Stephen

    tryit31 05/08/18 6:24 PM Reply


  • Hey, Josh! You’re pretty good at De Bromhead bingo, mate!

    Brilliant tipping today and always, thank you!

    Chris Murrell 05/08/18 6:45 PM Reply


  • Well done Mr Festival, brilliant Josh

    DanGreen 05/08/18 7:01 PM Reply


  • Great shouts at Galway today Josh. Well done.

    Richard 05/08/18 7:47 PM Reply


  • Two for tomorrow:
    Ghepardo Windsor Monday 20:30 1pt e/w Price available 28/1
    Give It Some Teddy Carlisle Monday 19:15 1pt e/w Price available 9/1

    Nick Mazur 05/08/18 8:25 PM Reply


  • I have no words left. Josh you must be the finest exponent of combining stats and form study on the planet! Absolutely sensational stuff and always great to see hard work rewarded.

    Francis 05/08/18 9:33 PM Reply


  • Thanks all, much appreciated. A good week all round!

    Josh 06/08/18 8:26 AM Reply


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