Members Daily Post: 02/08/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Goodwood

4.45 – Stellar Comet (1st 2YO) 9/1 UP

 

Nottingham

3.55 – Thundercloud (all hncps) w1 H1 I3 G3 6/1 S2 S4 S6 UP

4.30- Save The Bees (all hncps) I1 13/2 S6 UP

5.05 – Classic Pursuit (micro dist/class) w1 14 I1 6/1 S6 WON 5.4/1>7/2 (10pR4)

 

Ffos Las

8.45 – Give Em A Clump (m dist/dist move) G3 13/2 

 

Epsom

5.45 – Iconic Belle (all hncps) w1 H1 9/2 WON 5/1 

6.20 – 

Hats off to Larry (all hncps) w2 H1 I1 G3 6/1 S1 S2 S4 S6 UP 6/1>11/4

Clemento (m age) 14,30 H3 4/1 UP

7.30 – 

Private Cashier (all hncps) G3 2/1 

Edge of The World (m age) 14,30 H3 5/1 

8.00 – Macaque (all hncps) H3 11/2 

 

JUMPS

Stratford 

3.10 – Well Said (m TJC) w1 14,30 5/1 UP

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 18/186,65p, +5.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +152)

Daily Tips

NONE today, i’ve run out of time to flick through the above/do any other horses justice etc. The four pokes below will do for today.

 

Festival Tips

Galway…

4.35

David’s Charm – 1 point win – 13/2 (general) UP

Voix De Rev – 1 point win – 22/1 (Bet365/Lad/WH) 20/1 (gen) UP*

well that was disappointing…not getting a run from either… David’s race was over after the first furlong having been slowly away and poorly positioned, which is always annoying. I expected Voix De Rev to be up there but was instead held up. He ran ok to a point before flattening turning for home. The winner did have an interesting profile for this race but again I wasn’t close enough – one of those profile’s i’d look for in a Cheltenham Handicap Hurdle and seem to have inextricably overlook today…decent novice form, with few runs in a handicap/big field handicap. This one had a prep LTO and was making handicap debut. He was going to win a G1 novice over Christmas but for falling at the last (a G1!!) and on reflection was clearly the class horse in the race, with more to come. Prominent racer. 16s this morning. Poor. That’s a frustrating result as I should be closer to those. 

 

Goodwood…

1.50 – Bathsheba Bay – 1 point win 7/1 (gen) 

3.35 – Billesdon Brook -1 point win – 8/1 (gen) 

(write up in free post for Goodwood tips) 

That will be all for Festival tips…09.40…write ups on way…

 

Galway hurdle….

David’s Charm… I found it hard to ignore that 8 of the last 10 in this have been sent off at 7s or shorter and as such was happy to side with what could be considered a ‘shorty’ in a race like this. Historically the market/bookies, usually get this right. I think David’s Charm is the only horse in the race who has been plotted for this since before Christmas. This has been the plan and given his form in handicap hurdles when last seen, I suspect he’s still got a bit up his sleeve. He won well enough at this meeting last year, still looking green. He was then narrowly denied by Lagostovegas (solid, and we saw what she can do at Ascot) where he would have won two strides after the line. She got the run on him that day in a muddling race. He put that right by then beating a very competitive field at Fairyhouse, the form of which was franked at times this season. He was put away after that race with this race in mind, having two spins on the flat recently to get him up to speed. Race conditions look ideal, he generally jumps well, and he sees this trip out very well, which will be a positive in this rain softened ground. He usually races mid division and will clearly need some luck. If he gets it, I think he’s the one they will all have to beat here and I will be disappointed if he isn’t bang there as they swing for home. 

Voix De Rev – at 20s this is the one from my trends shortlist of three that I liked most. He has really come into his own the last twice and could now just be a better horse. While he hasn’t beaten much he couldn’t have been more impressive. It’s possible front running tactics have made the difference, or he’s just learnt to settle/see out his races, as he’s matured. He ran a decent race in this year’s Coral Cup..well, he was leading as they swung for home, in soft, before stamina seemingly gave way. I can’t say for certain that he doesn’t handle soft, esp over this trip, and at these odds I was happy to roll the dice. Paul Townend could have ridden this one so that may be a negative, but I don’t like making punting decisions just on jockey bookings. That’s a dangerous game, esp with 20s+ shots. I hope they bounce him out and try and make all/race prominently. He could get stuck in the mud late on but he looked an interesting outsider for this red hot yard. 

Of the rest…well of course I may not have mentioned the winner. Whiskey Sour could take this, but he will need even more luck than David’s Charm given he is usually held up right out the back. If he were a front runner/on the pace runner, i’d have had a dilemma here I think, but on the basis of his usual running style I have left him. He may well look the winner at some point but unless you have stacks in hand it’s hard to come from too far back here. Of course they may race him up there this time. He has plenty of class and won’t be a shock winner, but hopefully David’s or Voix may have set sail and he’ll have left it too late. I was happy to leave the 4 and 5 year olds, albeit Cartright looked interesting. I’ll mention Leon Cavallo…I wasn’t sure he’d relish this ground and I wasn’t sure he’d be good enough for this test. But, he could still have a bit in hand. Maybe some change on the machine on the other two on the stats/trends shortlist, but my head said leave them both. 

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Recent Losing Daily Tips

4.55 Strat- Visage Blanc (3rd run) UP

8.00 Epsom – Pursuing Steed (2nd run) / Hedging (2nd run) 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

A Dunn (25/1< guide) 

4.55 Strat – Seven Nation Army UP

Flat 

Top of the Class

1.50 Good- Communique WON 5/1 

4.45 Good- Accordance WON 6/1>9/2 

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Report: Goodwood+ Galway CLICK HERE>>> 

 

Goodwood: Day 3

‘Qualifiers’ against stats report above

Johnston Micro

1.50 – Communique 

4.10 – Cupboard Love 

Other

1.50- Completion / Communique

5.20 – Helvetian

 

Galway: Day 4 

‘Qualifiers’ against stats report above

Mullins Micro 

1.40 – Minella Beau 

2.15 – Cadmium / Miss Sapphire / Robin Des Foret / Screaming Rose 

4.00 – Calie Dy Mesnil / Causey Arch / Exchange Rate / Sapphire Lady 

5.15 – Townshend 

5.50 – Golden Spread 

Henry De Bromhead Micro

1.40 – Schmidt 

2.15 – Ornua 

Others

1.40 – Aeglos (5/1<)

4.35 – any JP horse 5/1<, Tigris River (5/1<), Le Richbourg (5/1<) Top of the Ra

5.15 – Song of The Sky

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Goodwood Day 3 ‘Through The Card’ pointers

Trainer Race Pointers

Festivals/race trends…Trainers that have won said race 2x or more and have a runner

Trainers ‘in form’

’14’Geegeez Symbol as per key 

Top Rated Runners

Those horses top rated on HorseRaceBase / Geegeez / Inform

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TBC

1.50

Trainer Race Pointers

Ventura Knight / Communique 

Trainers ‘in form’

Zaman / Completion 

Top Rated Runners

Communique / Bathsheba Bay / Communique 

 

2.25

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

God Given / Maid To Remember / Precious Ramotswe / Pilaster

Top Rated Runners

Precious Ramotswe / Lady Of Shalott / Isabel De Urbina 

 

3.00

Trainer Race Pointers

Neverland Rock / Marie’s Diamond 

Trainers ‘in form’

Cool Reflection 

Top Rated Runners

Marie’s Diamond / Maries Diamond / Konchek 

 

3.35

Trainer Race Pointers

Rhododendron / Veracious 

Trainers ‘in form’

Urban Fox / Veracious / Wild Illusion 

Top Rated Runners

Urban Fox / Billesdon Brook / Rhododendron 

 

4.10 

Trainer Race Pointers

Cupboard Love 

Trainers ‘in form’

Revich / Barristan The Bold / 

Top Rated Runners

Shaybani / St Ouen / More Than This 

 

4.45

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

Mehdaayih / Wingreen 

Top Rated Runners

Lady Cosette / Deira Surprise / Deira Surprise 

 

5.20

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

Lord Riddiford / Porchy Party 

Top Rated Runners

Cowboy Soldier / Iconic Knight / Cowboy Soldier 

 

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Galway Hurdle

Focussing on those that placed at least once on last 2 starts, and were aged 6 or 7, gives you 9/84,21p, +84 in the last decade, and leaves just three for the stats/trends shortlist...

Voix Du Reve / Leon Cavallo / Blazer

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

29 Comments

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  • I guess that’s a little better way to start the month. Nothing at the festivals takes my fancy so a couple at Stratford:
    Red Hot Chilly Stratford Thursday 15:10 1pt e/w Price available 8/1
    Ballyandrew Stratford Thursday 16:20 1pt e/w Price available 11/1

    Nick Mazur 01/08/18 10:24 PM Reply


    • Well done Wednesday, two winners and one at 20/1.

      Galway is hard work, even Nick could not find a winner, however I will continue to have a crack at it.
      In the 1.40 Henry De Bromhead runs Schmidt in a chase. He had a winner on Wednesday and 8/1 here looks OK for a horse with further improvement in him. In the 3.25 I Can Fly is highly rated by his trainer and he thinks his form so far does not reflect the horse’s ability. The 6/1 available is just about OK. In the 4.35 Sharjah carries top weight. I know that he does not fit the stats for the race, but he was highly rated last season and the 18/1 available looks worth a stab at.

      martin colwell 01/08/18 10:46 PM Reply


      • Top weight, no problem, profit 🙂

        chrisrees 02/08/18 4:41 PM Reply


        • The Mullins without Ruby system seems to be the route so far this week. Always nice to have a 18/1 winner.

          martin colwell 02/08/18 4:47 PM Reply


    • Many thanks Nick, had your 2 winners with Lil Rockerfella in an ew treble . Today has paid for my horrendous luck in the Goliath (so far), 3 bullets so far and one final shot tomorrow. Done twice by flushes twice where they held unsuited and once holding top 2 and he hits his set of 2’s. Bloody good fun though, everyone playing and the staff create a great atmosphere. Good luck tomorrow.

      Chris Albin 01/08/18 11:21 PM Reply


      • I’ve never given the Goliath a try. I probably should given quite a few friends playing.

        Nick Mazur 02/08/18 8:35 AM Reply


      • Bad beat stories!! Lots of bingo players in The Goliath. Good luck.

        martin colwell 02/08/18 9:14 AM Reply


    • I echo all the praise Nick, fantastic work. My first belting day in a little while.

      Francis 02/08/18 6:47 AM Reply


    • Great day yesterday Nick, I was at Goodwood suffering my two bets in the maiden coming 2nd and 3rd to a George Baker one, George Baker!! Also an unusually erratic ride from Ryan Moore who then chinned Vale Of York to add insult to injury. Only saw your results this morning which cheered me up no end. Three 2yo races at Goodwood today so I needed a bank boost.
      Hugh

      alpha2 02/08/18 8:34 AM Reply


  • Courtesy of Ken yesterday (and thanks to him for all the hard work) here are the Flat Jockey Profits qualifiers for Thursday.

    Frankie Dettori (Goodwood)
    2.25 Precious Ramotswe
    3.00 Neverland Rock
    3.35 Veracious
    4.45 Mehdaayih

    Silvestre De Sousa (Epsom)
    6.20 Brancaster
    6.55 Mendoza
    7.30 Toy Theatre
    8.00 Kingston Kurrajong
    8.30 Don’t Cry About It

    Jim Crowley (Nottingham)
    2.45 Qutob
    4.30 Jack Regan
    5.35 Casemates Square

    William Buick (Goodwood)
    1.50 Zaman
    2.25 White Chocolate
    3.35 Wild Illusion
    4.45 Lady Cosette

    Daniel Tudhope (Goodwood)
    3.35 Urban Fox

    Just check before you place your bets, in case there’s been a jockey change.

    Good Luck

    Chris Marshall 01/08/18 11:54 PM Reply


    • Thanks Chris. Think I might struggle to put up any qualifiers tonight. 2 nephews and a grandson keeping me fully occupied. Help!!!!

      Ken McKenzie 02/08/18 1:05 PM Reply


  • just one for me at Goodwood today
    5-20. Embour 15-2 sky 4 places, won 3 on the trot before coming unstuck lto when 12/20 in a hot C2, drops back to C3 and goes on anything from firm to soft, could still be improvement to come and this looks easier.

    martin whittle 02/08/18 1:02 AM Reply


    • this one’s a real stab in the dark ,Nottingham 3-55.Cosmic Ray 22-1 , been awful this season but if he can reproduce anything near last years form when winning 4 races could be real value.

      martin whittle 02/08/18 1:12 AM Reply


  • Here go’s again, I’m still trying.
    All E/W
    Goodwood 1.50 Bathsheba Bay, 7/1.
    Stratford 3.10 Mystic Sky 10/1,
    Stratford 3.45 Fair Frank 16/1,
    Stratford 4.55 Petrify 10/1.

    Greg Phillips 02/08/18 7:17 AM Reply


  • I’m backing the 4 pps today. They’re flying in everywhere.
    Decided to lucky15e/w
    Classic p 5.05
    Sweet p 7.15
    Parable 7.45
    P steed 8pm

    Steven clowes 02/08/18 8:43 AM Reply


  • Morning josh
    Just a reminder for the pointers for Thirsk. Your thoughts would be appreciated as well, understand you are pushed for time so no problem if not.
    Will keep the footy comments on the free post & look forward to seeing martin’s thoughts on the championship
    Thank you

    Harry 02/08/18 8:55 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Nottingham
    4.30 Michelle Strogoff
    5.05 Classic Pursuit
    5.35 Praeceps
    Ffos Las
    5.30 Devils Roc

    Any new member or old wishing to follow my bets please have a betting bank 50 to 100 times your stake,no bank please do not bet till you have,see yesterdays post for how to use the bank only ever risking your original bank.

    July
    Bookmakers SP +7.359

    BOG + 37.625

    colin leafe 02/08/18 10:23 AM Reply


  • Goodwood looks hard again today. In the 1.50 I will oppose the Johnston steam train runners and go for the unexposed Rock Eagle. Could be a blot on the handicap? The O’Brien horses are worth opposing this week. Again I would go with Haggas again in the 3.35 with Urban Fox, who won well LTO.
    At Nottingham Atzeni rides in most races and Jim Crowley goes there for two rides. At Stratford Paddy Brennan has just the one ride. He rides Red Hot Chilly, a Nick selection, for Fergal O’Brien. De Souza journeys up from Goodwood to Epsom for 5 rides this evening.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 02/08/18 10:52 AM Reply


    • De Sousa is 4/4 on Mick Applebys in the last 14 days, they team up on Toy Theatre in the 7:30

      thisisjonnoo 02/08/18 12:31 PM Reply


  • Well it’s been a poor week for me so far but some great tipping from Josh, Nick and a few other posters have kept my bank looking good, cheers guys!

    Chris M Selections:
    Epsom
    17:45 – Iconic Belle (7/2 gen)
    18:20 – Hats off to Larry (5/1 gen)
    20:00 – Kingston Kurrajong (17/2 gen)

    Goodwood
    14:25 – Precious Ramotswe (6/1 gen)

    Ffos Las
    19:45 – Sicario (8/1 gen)

    Nottingham
    17:05 – Savannah Beau (20/1 gen)
    17:35 – Casemates Square (14/1 bet365, 12/1 gen)

    Chris M 02/08/18 11:36 AM Reply


  • U.S Racing Tip – Saratoga race 7, 9.24 UK time, Honey Dot.

    Yesterdays selection was a non runner.

    martin colwell 02/08/18 12:11 PM Reply


  • Ken,

    you missed one of Ben’s (NTF) summer stunners today. Rashaan was available at 12’s earlier and won at 6’s. Didn’t fit Ben’s full criteria in that it hadn’t won at graded level before, but was worth a little nibble at the prices available.

    Salman Ali 02/08/18 2:50 PM Reply


    • Salman, no one want to know that after the sodding race! 🙂 Not least Ken, who’s away/busy… assuming you spotted that/backed him pre race, couldn’t you have posted before? You’ve just poured salt into an open bloody wound haha.
      Josh

      Josh 02/08/18 2:59 PM Reply


      • Yep sorry, I only noticed this morning and didn’t check to see whether Ken had posted till after! Will make sure I do next time. Hope Aftertime Ansell isn’t reading this, otherwise he’ll be onto me!

        Salman Ali 02/08/18 3:03 PM Reply


        • haha, that **** isn’t anywhere near this members club! Ken’s juggling a few balls what with his own AW, jockeys, and life getting in way every now and then! You can be second in command on Ben’s summer stunners 🙂 He doesn’t mind them being posted etc.

          Josh 02/08/18 3:07 PM Reply


          • Agreed, more than happy to help Ken out.

            Salman Ali 02/08/18 3:09 PM Reply


  • Don’t worry he will have backed it, he burns the midnight oil. Never misses a trick.
    He sits on a beach in Tenerife with his william hill radio on. Dedication, ? No hates missing a winner.!!!

    Mike

    mickeydee 02/08/18 3:51 PM Reply


    • Unfortunately, I missed it. Family duty calls. Youngsters just off to bed. Might get a few minutes to post AW qualifiers later. Feel free to post FJP or summer stunners if you know what they are.

      Ken McKenzie 02/08/18 9:05 PM Reply


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