Free Daily Post: 02/08/18 (complete)

re-cap…ah no luck in the Galway Plate sadly. Such a shame that Drumcliff came to grief but I believe he’s ok which is the main thing. (and the jockey walked away just fine) He’s taken it up some way out as he’d been keen enough but was starting to settle on the front end. He’d jumped well before coming down. I suspect he’s a stronger stayer than the winner and it would have been exciting as they turned for home, given they both appeared to have slipped the field. His earlier exertions may well have caught up with him come the latter stages but we will never know, which is always frustrating. Sub Lieutenant ran an ok race in 5th, the other poke may still be running. Maybe the ground received a bit too much rain through the day but I knew that was a possibility so won’t go looking for excuses. Clarcam…well I was nowhere near the winner which is always annoying. Horses winning like that in those sorts of races are what drives me to keep going, as I always think I should be finding them! Clearly I don’t land on that many but you don’t need to at the odds. Winners always make more sense after the race but there were a few things to hammer home in my head… it was Elliot/Gigginstown in a big handicap at a Festival. While his overall Galway Festival record is awful, his plate record was decent enough. They changed his headgear for the first time in an age, the blinkers replacing CP. I need to start assuming that any chaser with blinkers coming on may try and make all/race up there, regardless of how they’d been running before. In a race that lacked loads of pace on paper, his running style shouldn’t have been a surprise there. It was a great ride, he’s always jumped well and is classy on his day. He is only 8 after all but seems to have been around for an age. Anyway, I don’t like being that far away from considering a big winner, so work to do. On to Goodwood today… (Galway Hurdle tips are in the members’ post inc a 20/1 poke) 

 

From the members’ post ‘Festival Tipping’ bank, now on +152 points for the year to date…

 

Goodwood

1.50 – Bathsheba Bay – 1 point win 7/1 (gen)  UP (disappointing) 

3.35 – Billesdon Brook -1 point win – 8/1 (gen) UP (hmm, a bit of a nothing run, looked like she may come with a challenge but flattened out a bit) 

 

Bathsheba Bay… Hannon, who’s been in form this week so far, has won this race before and I thought this one could be a couple of points too big here, based on that last run. He ran against his elders at Sandown last time out, seemingly improving for the step up in trip and the application of the tongue tie for the first time. Hopefully he can take another step forward today. That race has worked out well enough already. They were all beaten by an unexposed Stoute horse. Alfarris was just in front of him and he won a decent handicap here earlier in the week. He has form at the track, having chased home Dee Ex Bee in a maiden at last year’s Festival. Hopefully Eagan can get him in a prominent position and doesn’t get stuck in a pocket. He may need winding up early based on the evidence of that last run but i’d like to think he will be thereabouts back against his own age group. That Sandown race was run in a decent time, and faster than the Listed race on the same card, so with any luck it’s the formline to focus on. 

The dangers…well it’s a 3 year old handicap where most are open to improvement. I’ve had a saver on Communique WON 5/1>7/2 who does look very solid and ticks plenty of my meeting stats and through the card pointers in the members post. There could be more to come from him but the hope is the selection may have more in hand here. 

Billesdon Brook… in this small field I thought 8s was a bit of an insult for this years 1000 guineas heroine. Maybe it wasn’t the strongest renewal but she did win it well and Laurens was in second – she’s since come out and won two Group 1s in France. The form is decent enough. She was poorly positioned at Ascot and did best of those that came from the back, doing all of her best work late. There is every chance that she could improve further for this first crack at 10f and I just thought out of all of them in this race, her price was wrong. We may be about to find out why I don’t play in Group races too often, but I was happy to roll the dice with this one. That Ascot race did come on the back of a hard effort at Newmarket and she will have been freshened up since. 

The dangers…well it won’t be a total shock if any of the top 5 in the market win this, but I wouldn’t touch an AOB horse at the moment with a short price. She may well bolt up but there are murmurs of  a bug affecting some of his yard, and they are performing 30% below market expectations in the last 14 days. Anyway, I didn’t think she looked overpriced to my dodgy group 1 eyes, so that’s that. 

We shall see how well they both go. It would be good to nab a winner on the free post, but the overall tipping picture for the year is looking just fine (+219 points, mainly to 1 point win bets, across the board) 

Best of luck with any bets, 

Josh

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  • ITV7
    50p ew accum for a bit of fun

    4 – Communique @ 5/1 13.50 Goodwood

    1 – Pearl Of Qatar @ 10/1 14.10 Nottingham

    3 – Isabel De Urbina @ 10/1 14.25 Goodwood

    2 – Lahessar @ 9/2 14.45 Nottingham

    5 – Marie’s Diamond @ 5/1 15.00 Goodwood

    4 – Bin Makfi @ 5/2 15.20 Nottingham

    1 – Rhododendron @ 5/2 15.35 Goodwood

    martin whittle 02/08/18 8:21 AM Reply


  • A blank on the flat again yetsreday and profit of -7
    Nh
    +2 @ bog, -0.375 sp

    G 3.35 – Billesdon Brook @8
    E 6.20 – Never Surrnder @ 6
    NH
    S 2.35 – Commanche Chieftain @ 5
    4.20 – Helium @ 16

    Titus 02/08/18 9:19 AM Reply


  • Football – The Championship – Off we go this weekend for another season of fun!

    Millwall v Middlesbrough – No quality new signings for The Lions yet. Plus they have lost Ben Marshall who they had on loan last season. Last 3 seasons they are averaging 1.9 points at home. Middlesbrough have lost Besic and Fabio plus 3 others. They have signed Aden Flint form Bristol City plus 4 others, mostly defenders. Hardly a surprise for a Tony Pulis team. They average 1.48 points away from home in the championship. I would go with the draw if you can get circa 5/2 and the under 2.5 goals looks a banker at 4/6.

    Birmingham v Norwich City – In their last four championship seasons Birmingham average 1.42 points at home, so pretty weak. They have lost six players but of little note and have only brought in one player from Germany. Norwich average 1.41 points away from home in the last three seasons. They have had a clear out and have also lost James Maddison and Angus Gunn plus 10 others. They have signed Jordan Rhodes and Ben Marshall and 9 lesser players. Overall they look weaker to me than last season, which is not good. Birmingham look short at 6/4 and so the best bet may be to lay them. However no real confidence in this match.

    martin colwell 02/08/18 9:27 AM Reply


    • No view on Friday nights game Reading v Derby.
      Exciting times ahead at Derby,in Frank we trust for the players have smiles on their faces again and have been running for one another in the friendlies,where the two kids he has brought in on loan look very good especially Mason Mount from Chelsea he will be a star,and a home grown full back Max Lowe who came through our academy should go a long way,Harry Wilson from Liverpool looked very good in the friendlies against Southampton and Wolves which we won 3 0 and 2 1,which Derby outclassed both teams and they both fielded strong teams.
      Having said all this Reading no doubt will win.

      colin leafe 02/08/18 10:58 AM Reply


      • Reading only average 1.4 points per game at home the last 4 seasons. They have stiffened up by signing John O’Shea, David Meyler and Sam Baldock among others. Derby have averaged 1.4 points away over the same period. They have gained Jozefsoon from Brentford who had good stats. Wiemann has gone but did not do much last season.
        Not much value here. Under 2.5 goals at 8/11 at a push.

        martin colwell 02/08/18 12:21 PM Reply


  • Goodwood Ladies Day 2nd August 6f Gp 2 Richmond, 4.10 7f Nursery, 4.45 7f Mdn
    Richmond Stakes
    Ratings
    1. Konchek, Land Force, Neverland Rock, Sporting Chance
    2. Charming Kid, Sabre, Shine So Bright
    From the races I have seen I have always liked Sabre best of these and reluctantly put him up at Royal Ascot withthr following comment….. After Paul Hanagan’s comments about being happy with second on Sands Of Mali, when it looked to me as if he could and should have won, I am anxious about putting up Sabre, but he is such a lovely looking colt I have to go with him.
    Of course Hanagan fulfilled my fears and held him up to far finishing a half length 2nd to Soldiers Call. Unfortunately Hanagan is even more of a liability at Glorious Goodwood (4%), still I expect I’ll have a saver on him but with minimal confidence. At least he doesn’t have to cope with a bend. Next best Konchek and Neverland Rock
    7f Nursery
    Ratings
    1. No More Regrets, Barristan The Bold, Teo Blondes,
    2. More Than This, Cupboard Love, Revich, Forseti
    3. Shaybani, Indian Viceroy, Greenback Boogie, Artistic Rifles, Nayslayer
    The only one with a serious pull that I have rated in the same league as the 90 given by the handicapper to Shaybani here is Artistic Rifles who I gave an 89. #this is his first run in a handicap and he should be very competitive if he behaves himself. He needs the cut. Also a caveat about Hills 2yos this week who don’t seem to be performing according to their looks.
    Maiden 4.45 7f
    Ratings
    1. Deira Surprise, Medaayih, Stellar Comet, Wingreen
    2. Accordance, Black Medyck, Furious, Sweet Jemima
    3. Lady Cosette, Incharge, Red Archangel,
    Too difficult without seeing them.
    Hugh

    alpha2 02/08/18 10:40 AM Reply


  • Mark Johnston method

    Each day back all his runners 1pt win and stop at a winner. It’s that simple. He usually has 3 in race 1 on day 1 so tomorrow is a bit less painful to start as he has only one runner in the first.

    Day1 Dark Vision was the second runner and won at BFSP of 3.9 Less 1pt lost on first runner.
    Balance +2.9pts

    Day 2 No winners from 9 runners Balance -6.1pts. I have a vague recollection that Wednesday was not so good last year also

    Day 3
    1.50 Ventura Knight, Communique
    3.00 Marie’s Diamond
    4.10 Cupboard Love
    4.45 Accordance, Stellar Comet
    Hugh

    alpha2 02/08/18 10:49 AM Reply


    • Sorry to disabuse you old chap. According to HRB, Mark Johnston’s record by day last year was, Tuesday first:

      0/3, 2/6, 0/7, 0/5, 2/4

      First winner on Wednesday was Londinium bsp 11.23, one of three bets. So +8.23 that day.

      First winner on Saturday was Soldier In Action bsp 14.69, one of two bets. So +12.69.

      Profit 6.92 before commission at the meeting.

      Chris Murrell 02/08/18 1:45 PM Reply


      • Ha! Can’t do sums in me ‘ed. Profit 5.92.

        Where’s that cloth to wipe the egg off?

        Chris Murrell 02/08/18 1:49 PM Reply


        • Thanks Chris, brain addled by 3 days of intense sun. The egg was well and truly on my face after the 7f Maiden and Hanagan and More Than This. That said I did have to back him. He was simply a size bigger and better than anything else. As long as Paul Hanagan got him out well I couldn’t see anything beating him.

          Shame the Johnston horse today was only 7/2 as it did not get us back to break even.
          Hugh

          alpha2 02/08/18 8:51 PM Reply


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