Members Daily Post: 31/07/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Yarmouth

1.40 – Raven’s Raft (micro dist) 14,30 25/1 

4.00- Merhoob (3yo+) 7/1 2nd

5.05-

Fang (m going) 5/1

The Lacemaker (m class move) H3 I3 G3 6/1 S4 S5 

 

Goodwood

1.50 – Rainbow Rebel (all hncps + m TJC) w2 w1 30 H1 I3 8/1 S2 S6  UP

4.10 – Gainsborough Hat (1st 2YO) 8/1 UP

5.15 –

Rebel Assault (all hncps/3yo+, +m TJC) I3 12/1 

Kalagia (all hncps/3yo+) w2 30 8/1 

 

Beverley 

3.50 –

Signore Piccolo (all hncps) 14 H3 I3 G1 9/2 S2 S4 3rd 

Musharrif (m class/age) 14 H1 I1 9/2 S1 UP

4.20 –

Alejandro (all hncps) 14 I1 G3 17/2 S2 S6  UP

Three Saints Bay (m age) w1 14,30 H3 I1 G1 6/4 S1 S2 S4  WON 6/4>11/8

Mont Kinabalu (m dist move) w2 H3 I3 6/1 UP

4.55 – Heir Of Excitement (m dist) I3 20/1 

5.30 – Outlaw Torn (all hncps + m class) 12/1

6.00 – Polar Forest (all hncps + m class) I3 G3 20/1 

 

JUMPS

Worcester

6.40 – I’dliketheoption (hncp chase) I3 11/2 

7.15 – Three Colours Red (hncp hurdle) w1 14 H1 5/2 

8.20 – Green Or Black (m dist) H1 I1 15/8 

 

Perth

7.25 –

Knock House (hncp chase) 14,30 14/1  S2

Flaxen Flare (m runs) 20/1 S2A

Swingbridge (m runs) I3 13/2 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 18/186,65p, +5.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +145)

Daily Tips

NONE today

 

Festival Tips

1.50 Goodwood

Rainbow Rebel – 1 point win– 9/1 (betfS/PP) 8/1 (boyle/BetBright) 15/2 (gen) UP

Tuff Rock – 1 point win – 14/1 (betfS/PP) 12/1 (gen)  (as of 08.32) UP

 

4.45 Goodwood

Copper Knight – 1 point win– 15/2 (gen) (as of 09.05) UP

 

5.15 Goodwood 

Zoraya – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365) 14/1 (gen) (as of 09.37) UP

 

7.40 Galway 

Whats The Story – 1 point win – 9/1 (general) UP

Riven Light – 1 point win – 14/1 (betfS/PP) 12/1 (gen) (as of 09.37) WON 12/1>11/1

 

That all for tips, 09.38

1.50…thoughts in the free post.

 

Copper Knight….one from the stats/trends shortlist and given how he won at Newcastle two starts back I thought he may be worth chancing here. I’m not sure he relishes fast ground and never seems to really put down on it. It may be no coincidence that the only time he hasn’t run on fast so far this season (Newc AW) he’s bolted up. He ran ok at Ascot LTO when on the wrong side of the track, travelling well for a long way. I was intrigued to see this pacey sort at this downhill track on ground with no ‘firm’ in the going. He has plenty of ability and looked the most interesting at the prices in this to my eyes. There is so much pace on paper we shall see how it pans out. Maybe it will all fall apart and there will be a shock result, or those that appear better over 6f (Baron Bolt for example) stay on as they all fall in a hole. It can pay to stay away from the nearside when there has been rain, so we shall see if that holds true. Hopefully CK can race handily enough and burst through down the middle and do them all!

Zoraya…I dipped into the ‘through the card’ pointers for this one and just could not resist at the price. Her trainer is in form and she’s top rated on GG, which was the way in. She also has a win at the track, returns to a fillies handicap, and is very consistent. I couldn’t work out why she was this big as there isn’t a stand out in this to my eyes. The Haggas horse may bolt up but is short enough for me given the first run on turf/at the track, but clearly could have plenty in hand. What really intrigued me was that this was her first race for an age in a big field with a proper strong pace to aim at. It’s a bit like how I think about jumps handicap hurdles, esp at Cheltenham. (horses running in small field novice races,coming alive in a big field handicap/strong pace) She has been racing in small field/tactical affairs, either staying on too late or getting outpaced near the end by one with more of a finishing kick. I just wanted to see what she could do with a proper gallop to aim at. I could be wide of the mark, but there was enough there at the price and this test ‘could’ suit.

What’s The Story… I tipped this one at York LTO I think in the big race there, when running ok. I’m not sure he stays that trip but is also a bit tricky. They reach for 1st time blinkers here and he did respond well to first time CP two starts back – that was in the Hunt Cup where he ran a cracker. To me that looks the best bit of recent handicapping form on offer. It’s interesting enough to me that KD has his first runner at Galway, and English raiders do well at this meeting. He is drawn in the right spot for one that can race prominently and he’s booked Billy Lee…he is the go to jockey for small Irish yards with Royal Ascot runners, and it looks like he may be the go to jockey for English raiders over in Ireland! We shall see, but that’s a positive booking to my eyes. If he repeats that Ascot run he should be bang there at the death against this lot.

Riven Light…I could well be reacting to not tipping Uradel yesterday for which i’m still kicking myself…I think I saw his two at the top of the market/short, and just moved on. I didn’t look properly and there were plenty of positives/ways in, but I missed it and won’t dwell on here for too much longer… anyway, this one won the race last year, is still unexposed on the flat, and could have the class to defy this mark/the weight. He got injured in Australia but the fact he returns here suggests to me he must be as good as they can get him at home. He has a horrid draw but is a hold up horse anyway, and he’d have won by a few more lengths last year if getting a clear run. You want a double figure price with this sort but given the micro angle, the form of the yard and what the horse has done in the past, I was happy to take a chance. He could just be much better than this lot.

That’s the lot on a busy day, fingers crossed.

Best of luck with any bets,

Josh

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

Top of the Class

3.15 Bev – Kalissi UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Really Super/ 7.50Worcester

NOTE  I’ll be off to Worcester on Tuesday to watch Really Super run. I’m staying the night and then trekking through to the family home in Suffolk for a wedding on Friday. You shouldn’t notice any interruption to the content and I’ll try and get Section 1 boxed off before I head to the track. To the horse…

Well she has been frustrating for us so far but I could give you a valid excuse for every run she’s had for us since her debut at Fakenham. We revert to hurdles which is what she was purchased for and one day she’ll show herself to be thrown in. This will probably be her minimum trip over hurdles as all she does is gallop. She jumped well when last seen over timber and has been schooling fine I believe. She gets her decent ground here at a more galloping track. This is a shocker of a race, and I hope she shows us more. Amy has moved yard recently and hopefully she’s settled in, but it can take some horses time after such a move. The questions are mounting for her but when it all comes together she’ll bolt up. I’ve no idea if that will be in this race, but we can dream (although of course, given she’s still a maiden, there’s always a niggle as to the temperament!) 🙂 

 

 

Report: Goodwood+ Galway CLICK HERE>>> *

‘qualifiers’…those horses that hit at least one stat mentioned. I’ll no doubt miss the odd one through the week, but i’ll try not to.  These are to be used as starting points, albeit we shall see how the ‘micros’ get on and the report is above to use as you please. 

 

Galway Day 2

Mullins Micro

5.20 – Exchange Rate / Pakora

7.40 – Riven Light

De Bromhead Micro

5.55 – Gangster (16/1<)

Others

5.55 – Chateau Conti (5/1<) / Successor (5/1<) / Winter Escape (5/1<)

7.40 – Band of Outlaws

 

 

Goodwood Day 1

Mark Johnston Micro

(C2 hncps, Fanning or SDS…interesting to see how PJ gets on this year,as he is riding more for the yard this season I think) 

1.50 – Rainbow Rebel UP

Others

1.50 – Original Choice / Alfarris  / Pivoine (12/1<) / Medrano / Not So Sleepy

4.10 – Gainsborough Hat

4.45 – Boom The Groom

5.15 – Rebel Assault / Move Swiftly / Labrega

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Festival Races In Focus

1.50 Goodwood

stats/trends shortlist: The three 10/10 stats leave 7…

Rainbow Rebel / Plutonian / Alfarris / Tuff Rock / Pivoine / Thomas Cranmer/ Society Red 

3 career wins only is a big positive: Plutonian / Alfarris

Running at a ‘festival’ LTO is also a plus: Alfarris / Pivoine / Thomas Cranmer

 

4.45 Goodwood

stats/trends shortlist: the one 10/10 stat (which given the place numbers is a bit tentative).. leave 7… (removing 8)…

Paddy Power / Dark Shot / Copper Knight / Outrage / Just Glamorous / Under The Covers / Just An Idea 

There are five 9/10 pointers but with no real standout horse against those.

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Back in the morning with any festival tips.

 

Goodwood ‘through the card’ starting points

This approach has highlighted numerous winners every time i’ve done it, so we shall see how it gets on this week at Goodwood. Just a case of landing on the right ones, easy! 

Trainer Race Pointers

Festivals/race trends…Trainers that have won said race 2x or more and have a runner

Trainers ‘in form’

’14’Geegeez Symbol as per key 

Top Rated Runners

Those horses top rated on HorseRaceBase / Geegeez / Inform

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1.50 

Trainer Race Pointers

Rainbow Rebel /

Trainers ‘in form’

Appeared / Silver Line / Original Choice / Alfarris

Top Rated Runners

Rainbow Rebel / Afaak / Dark Red

 

2.25 

Trainer Race Pointers

Van Beethoven / Burj / Dark Vision

Trainers ‘in form’

Dunkerron / Drogon / Burj / Federal Law

Top Rated Runners

Getchagetchagetcha / Cosmic law / Dunkerron

 

3.00 

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

D’Bai / Emmaus / So Beloved / Suedois / Tip Two Win

Top Rated Runners

Sir Dancelot / Tip Two Win / Dutch Conection|Here Comes When|D’bai

 

3.35 

Trainer Race Pointers

Desert Skyline / Idaho

Trainers ‘in form’

Call To Mind / Dal Harraild / St Michel / Stradivarius

Top Rated Runners

Stradivarius / Desert Skyline / Stradivarius

 

4.10

Trainer Race Pointers

Gainsborough Hat

Trainers ‘in form’

Al Mureib / Enough Already

Top Rated Runners

Of those that have run…

Al Mureib / Al Mureib / Al Mureib

 

4.45

Trainer Race Pointers

Boom The Groom

Trainers ‘in form’

El Atronaute / Baron Bolt / Dark Shot / Just An Idea

Top Rated Runners

Poyle Vinnie / Pettochside / A Momentofmadness|El Astronaute

 

5.15 

Trainer Race Pointers

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Trainers ‘in form’

Hateya / Dance On The Day / Cavatina / Move Swiftly / Zoraya

Top Rated Runners

Dance On The day / Zoraya / Escape The City

 

Inform Top Rated at Course, in race order… (obv for those that have run at track in said race)

R1 Dark Red / R2 Dunkerron (only one) / R3 Dutch Connection|Here Comes When / R4Stradivarius / R5 None / R6 A Momentofmadness|El Astronaute / R7 Zoraya

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

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  • A 4/1 winner and 33/1 2nd place gave us a profit of 0.8pts for the day.

    Results for July
    Staked 80pts, Profit 17.3pts, ROI 21.3% or £86.50 to £5 stakes.

    Overall results since 12 Dec
    Staked 1,038pts, Profit 125.44pts, ROI 12.08% or £627.20 to £5 stakes.

    After a couple of wobbles in February & March, then a rest in April, things have settled down to a pretty consistent monthly profit. Here’s hoping it continues.

    Next AW meeting is at Wolves on Friday. I’m away to the Lake District for a short break Wed-Fri so selections may be a bit later on Thurs or may be Fri morning.

    Ken McKenzie 30/07/18 9:38 PM Reply


    • Have a good break ken

      Paul Ebrey 30/07/18 10:10 PM Reply


  • Pivoine Goodwood Tuesday 13:50 1pt e/w Price available 12/1
    Spirit of Valor Goodwood Tuesday 15:00 1pt e/w Price available 12/1
    Elysian Flyer Beverley Tuesday 15:50 1pt e/w Price available 8/1

    Nick Mazur 30/07/18 10:24 PM Reply


  • Look back at Monday.

    As previously discussed the Godolphin horses that ran at Ayr produced a winner and a second place. The Cromwell raiders at Wolverhampton both won. They could both be backed at 3/1 via Oddschecker.

    Apart from the first race winners were hard enough to find at Galway. The Mullins horses do win but not necessarily the fancied one. Limini coasted around but got done by a stablemate on the run in.

    The U.S. racing tip won and was available on Oddschecker at 4/1.

    martin colwell 30/07/18 10:31 PM Reply


    • Hi Martin

      Had a nibble on the US horse tonight and managed to get 11/1 at 6.25pm with 365. It’s worth noting that 365 offer BOG on US racing. Not sure many others do. Anyway, a nice way for me to start off. Cheers.

      Ken McKenzie 30/07/18 10:46 PM Reply


      • OK Ken cheers, I forgot all about it until near the off and so only got on at 4/1. I will amend its price for stats to 10/1 for record keeping purposes. So the tips are now +30.5 since end of June.

        Enjoy the Lake District. I am a bit far away from it in Kent, easier to go over to France when the tunnel is working.

        martin colwell 30/07/18 11:02 PM Reply


  • With winners traditionally hard to find at Goodwood I devised a small method a few years ago which has always got me out of trouble and allowed me to breakeven when the 2yos went awry.

    It is a Mark Johnston stop at a winner method.

    Each day back all his runners 1pt win and stop at a winner. It’s that simple. He usually has 3 in race 1 on day 1 so tomorrow is a bit less painful to start as he has only one runner in the first.

    Qualifiers
    1.50 Rainbow Rebel
    2.25 Dark Vision
    4.10 Gainsborough Hat
    5.15 Rebel Assault, Kalagia

    I will post up results as I go along.
    Hugh

    alpha2 30/07/18 10:58 PM Reply


  • Flat Jockey Profits

    There are a few qualifiers for Tuesday, all at Goodwood, as follows:

    Adam Kirby
    1.50 Not So Sleepy 20/1* (4 places)

    William Buick
    1.50 Dark Red 8/1
    2.25 Blonde Warrior 9/1
    3.00 D’Bai 9/1
    4.10 Gainsborough 8/1
    4.45 A Momentofmadness 12/1 (5 places)

    Daniel Tudhope
    1.50 Original Choice 16/1* (4 places)
    5.15 Cavatina 16/1* (4 places)

    * Does not qualify for filtered list

    Ryan Moore S2
    2.25 Van Beethoven 10/1
    3.00 Spirit of Valour 11/1 (4 places)
    3.35 Idaho 10/1

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 30/07/18 11:13 PM Reply


  • i’ll have a go at a couple of the Goodwood handicaps but couldn’t pick my nose at the moment so be warned,
    1-50.Pivoine 12-1 , if you can forgive his run lto the run before was very impressive in winning a c3 with a bit in hand.
    4-45. Pettochside 15-2 sky 4 places, c&d winner back in May and only just touched off in the dash at Epsom, mark looks fair.

    martin whittle 31/07/18 1:34 AM Reply


  • even someone as stubborn as me has to admit defeat sometime so i’m stopping backing the system qualifiers for the moment (cue a big priced winner), i’m not giving up on it yet but back to paper trading with a couple of tweaks and a new filter.
    15:50 Beverley. Bosham 12-1
    16:30 Yarmouth. Wild Acclaim 8-1
    17:35 Worcester. Heurtevent 7-1

    martin whittle 31/07/18 7:54 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Yarmouth
    1.40 Emily Goldfinch
    4.30 King Oswald
    4.30 Percy Toplis
    Goodwood
    5.15 Rebel Assault
    Beverley
    5.30 Outlaw Torn

    colin leafe 31/07/18 10:22 AM Reply


  • Galway – I continue to find the meeting hard. The Mullins angle but minus Ruby is an angle. Harry Roberts likes to have a winner at these meetings and has two runners today, albeit one at 200/1. Today I like Successor at 16/1 in the 5.55. Barry Geraghty up on a JP horse. I heard that Massif Central had been laid out for this meeting and goes off at 16/1 in the 7.40. I also like Gentil J in the 8.40 around 10/1 for Harry Roberts.

    Goodwood – I like four; 2.25 Cosmic Law (I expect him to be better than what he has shown previously); 3.00 Emmaus, but ground dependent I think as he needs some give; 4.10 Serengeti Song at a price (good first run and can step forward); 5.15 Kalagia for the Johnston stable who go well at the course.

    Nothing from me at Beverley or Yarmouth.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 31/07/18 10:33 AM Reply


    • At Perth I note that Gordon Elliott sends over a big team and has booked Richard Johnson to ride one in each race. Doubtful you will get much of a price on them though.

      Hendo sends one to Worcester, 6.05 Brave Eagle. Fergal O’Brien teams up with Paddy Brennan in the 7.50, Phoebus Lescribba. A couple of Irish raiders at the meeting as well.

      martin colwell 31/07/18 10:55 AM Reply


  • Bit disappointed with yesterday’s results, 2nd, 3rd and 4th. Everything but a winner!

    Chris M Selections:
    Yarmouth
    17:05 – The Lacemaker (13/2 gen)

    Goodwood
    13:50 – Rainbow Rebel (10/1 gen)
    17:15 – Kalagia (8/1 gen)

    Beverley
    14:05 – Irv (11/1 bet365, 10/1 gen)
    16:20 – Mount Kinabalu (11/2 bet365, 5/1 gen)

    Perth
    18:50 – Farocco (11/1 gen)

    Chris M 31/07/18 11:18 AM Reply


    • Ah, should never be too disappointed with placed efforts/solid runs, always more of a positive albeit never feels like it on the day. You’d rather that then all of them tailing off out back of TV, that’s always dispiriting when your analysis is nowhere near!

      Josh 31/07/18 12:07 PM Reply


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