Nothing from me today.
GL with any bets,
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Week 3 profit @ bog 23, @ sp 9.475
cumulative @ bog 39.925, @sp 9.525
Nh @ 1/2 pt wk1 @ bog 4.875, @ sp 4.5 (more than double if taking e/w when highlighted)
A 4.00 – Mooltazem @ 6
N 2.10 – Doitforjoe @ 10
3.40 – Tamarillo Grove @ 6
30/07/18 9:34 AM
over 100 flat picks now so a quick breakdown. Gonna be tough @ sp I think.
runs 133, 28 winners, sr 21%, roi 30%
49 plcs inc wins, sr 37%, might be a case for plc market but no access to past bfsp.
30/07/18 12:37 PM
cocked up on NH profit. Figs should read double, I’m only backing @ 1/2 pt and I’ve divided profit by 2. Brain was still recovering from quite a drunken w/end
03/08/18 11:44 AM
Poor fare at Windsor tonight but a squeak of a chance in the second race.
Windsor 30th July
Windsor 5f Mdn
1. Dandy Lad, Good Luck Fox, Rajman, Anonymous Blonde
2. Across The Sea, Vino Rosso
Windsor 6f Novice
1. Bobby Ewing, Crackin Dream, Kessaar
2. Ginger Fox, Lieutenant Conde
Kessaar is ridiculously short for this. My take on the collateral form is based on the others I have seen. I Am A Dreamer who beat him about a length on debut and Sense Of Belonging who was 1.5l behind him in third who I saw at Windsor. These were my comments:-
I Am A Dreamer – short on quality 75
Sense Of Belonging – Lightly made, lacking quality. Soft Northern Jessie. Remarkable he went off 2nd fav. 66
From the video he appears smallish, after the race where he ran against these two he went to Ascot for the Windsor Castle where he was 25th of 28 despite being joint 3rd favourite, never looking as though he had the pace for that race.
He maybe around 72 and that might be good enough to win this race. Bobby Ewing I have seen but got no notes and in his picture he looks very ordinary, certainly no better than 72. So a tentative vote for Crackin Dream who is currently 6/1
1pt Win Crackin Dream
30/07/18 11:18 AM
Updates from last week
Sandown and Newbury review from Thursday 26th July
Sandown 7f Listed Fillies
Photo file : https://imgur.com/a/pCrPnCN
1. Look Around – Compact and burly, powerful back end and clearly very fit. More to come 86
2. Ajrar – Tough wiry lightly made filly but with a real good attitude. May progress further. 80
3. La Pelosa – Just looked a fraction off in the paddock and ran below par. Needs resting? 84
4. Koduro – One of the smaller ones, lower med lacking listed quality. 77
5. Itizzit – A bit light at the front and downhill but attractive filly. 76
6. Patchouli – Sparely made, very fit. 75
7. Octave – Looked over-raced and needing a break. Strong but not that efficiently made. 76
Sandown 7f Mdn
Photo file: https://imgur.com/a/rsG7ef5
1. Beatboxer – Simply classier than the rest, Upper medium, strong fit easy winner. 85
2. Fraser Island – Typical tough Johnston model, hint tubular, colty. 79
3. Venedegar – Why does Ed Dunlop run them to get them fit instead of tuning them up at home? This one in race 3 still carrying too much condition. Chunky model who will win a maiden. 78
4. Pesto – 76
5. Ritchie Valens – 74
6. Kosciuzsco – A bit spare, fit but green, improve. 77
7. Havana Rocket – Downhill, looked fit, 73
8. Rajinsky – Small, plain type, 73
9. Merlin’s Magic – Ran to his previous rating I suppose, looks capable of better. Nurseries? 73
Newbury 6f Novice
Photo file: https://imgur.com/a/lU1Ir8S
An interesting race, when Motafaawit appeared in the paddock it was clear that the 7/1 offered was a ludicrous representation of his chances.
1. Legends Of War – Upper medium, strongly made, chunky, very fit. Just squeaked home. 85
2. Motafaawit – Green and daft in the paddock and the race, this probably lost him the race. Lower end of big. 88
3. Barossa Red – Looked shrimp in the paddock but acquitted himself well. Small, chunky, needed the race. 74
Newbury 7f Fillies maiden
Photo file: https://imgur.com/a/tFME2xH
A pretty ordinary field where it was impossible to get away from the obvious fitness and experience of Star Terms.
1. Star Terms – Top end of small, strongly made, fully tuned and needed it to overcome Dutch Treat. 76
2. Dutch Treat – Top end of small, did not look fit enough to run as she did. Probably better than looks suggest. 75
3. To The Moon – Tubular, downhill, not a lot more to come. 73
4. Khibrah – Better model, still not high quality. 75
5. Chicago Doll – Needs further 67
6. Querelle – Fat for debut, 70
7. Kahina – Looks ok but had 3 chances now, setting up for a 1m nursery? 70
8. Galileo Jade – Likeable type, lower medium, not fit so finishing position no surprise, improve. 72
9. Boorowa – Likeable looking filly, strongly made, medium, unfit and probably will take a few races to show her ability. Potential to be 74 ish but trainer?
10. My Law – Unseated at start. Horse and groom both need to lose some weight. Might be ok, another nursery project. 68
30/07/18 11:19 AM
fantastic work as always Hugh.
30/07/18 11:22 AM
This kind of insight is not only fascinating, I’m sure it will pay dividends in the near future. Thank you, Hugh.
30/07/18 1:48 PM
Sorry for late posting only just noticed this is running 5.10 Wolves
6. Requited – my pre-race comments about the jockey look justified by the RP comment – “tracked leaders against rail, stuck behind weakening rival from 2f out and lost place, no chance final furlong”. That said although he failed to get him settled early on it did look to my eyes as though he made very little effort to put him in the race and this may have been the plan. I may have over-rated this one as he looked a bit shrimp next to GL and IH, also not the scope of Boa Nova. Should however easily pick up a nursery now he has 3 ordinary runs under his belt. 73
30/07/18 5:10 PM
Sent a boy to do a man’s job, from that draw needed a more experienced jock.
30/07/18 5:14 PM