Members Daily Post: 27/07/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Thirsk

5.25 – 

Life For Rent (micro dist) H1 10/3 

Mr Enthusiastic (m going) 50/1 

 

Newmarket (July)

5.35 –

North Bay Sunrise (m age) 18/1 

Margie’s Choice (m runs) 14,30 H3 I3 G3 7/2 S4 S5 

7.10 – Masham Star (m class move) H1 I1 G1 11/4 S1 S4 

 

Chepstow

5.50 – Coachella (all hncps,3yo+) H3 6/1 

6.50 –

Poyle Charlotte (m class) w1 30 H1 I3 G3 evens S2 S4 

Rippling Waters (m class/class move) H3 I1 10/3 S2 

7.50 –

Quantum Dot (all hncps/3yo+) w1 H1 G1 5/2 S1

Major Valentine (m TJC/age) 14 I1 9/1 S6 

 

York

6.30 – 

Rasheeq (m runs) I1 16/1 S6 

Suitcase N Taxi (m runs) w2 16/1 

8.00 – Fashion Theory (m runs) w2 9/1 

 

Ascot

none. 

 

JUMPS

Uttoxeter

1.40 – 

Kristal Hart (hncp hurdle)  33/1 

Pretty Reckless (m TJC/dist) 14,30 ES+ H1 I3 3/1 S3A#

Premier Rose (m dist) w2 14,30 H3 I1 9/1 

Midnight Aurora (m dist) (hncp hurdle debut) 14,30 25/1 S2A 

3.55 – 

The Detainee (hncp hurdle, m class) ES H3 7/1 

Notnow Seamus (m TJC) w2 w1 14,30 ES+ H1 I3 5/2 S3A#

4.30 – Kings Reste (m TJC/dist) w1 14,30 ES+ H1 I1  4/6 S3A#

 

*

KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 17/180,63p, +2.3) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +140)

Daily Tips

6.30 York – Tylery Wonder – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365/WH) 14/1 (gen)

8.00 York – Kings Gift – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen)

that’s all for tips as of 09.23…

…a tricky day on the weather front awaits with plenty of educated guessing required… it looks like both Chepstow and Uttoxeter will miss any rain and as such they were where I started, but I couldn’t find anything of interest to my eyes. There are various strategy quals at both and fingers crossed a few can hit the board, but I didn’t fancy tipping anything at the prices.

Tylery Wonder… to York then, where they are due some rain. It should take the sting out of the ground and we shall see if it turns the ground soft. This one has won in Ireland on soft before, good is no problem, and at his price I won’t use it as an excuse. Hopefully Nick or I can nab the winner of this or the S6 horse somehow wins. This one has a very good record at the track, 1/6,4p, is moving back down in class, visor back on, and moves up in trip to 6f. It was that trip move that tempted me in, given he hasn’t run over 6f for an age. When trained in Ireland he had a decent record over 6f, with staying on victories in big fields at the Curragh. The stamina is there and in recent runs he’s shaped as if he’s worth a crack at it again. Maybe Midgley has just trained speed back into him and he won’t see it out but at his price I thought he was interesting. He races on the pace/leads, is top rated GG and high up on plenty of Inform measures,inc top rated for the course. He’s second rated in HRB. So, he ticks plenty of boxes. I’d be disappointed if he didn’t place at worst here. Clearly it’s competitive stuff and he isn’t getting any younger. Maybe a less exposed one will have him but at least he arrives in form and he’s usually seen to best effect in big fields. Maybe his legs have gone for a test like this but i’ll pay to find out. There is plenty of pace middle to low and given the trip move I expect Makin to track it, and stay on past them all in the final furlong. He may try and lead, we shall see. I’m hopeful of getting a run for my money anyway and he won’t have any ground excuses, whatever it does- albeit if it turns proper soft that may stretch his stamina.

Kings Gift – i thought 8s was just about fair here and a case could be made that he should be a tad shorter. I thought there was a lot to like about his chance. I started looking at the pace set up and making a case for Lamloom,who I may have a saver on. I thought Danny T may be able to lead on him from his draw and he isn’t without a chance. When looking at the race as a whole I then had a look at those trainers ‘in form’ and was lured into the Dods runner. In general they are going well, 6/34,18p the last 14 days. He is 7/24,16p at the track in the last year, +40, and ‘Roddy’ rides the track well, 4/18,8p in his career to date. The horse has his 4th start of the season here and his first ever go in a C3 handicap, having been running in C2s. Three starts back he was rated 100, and with the claim now races off 90. He was a pretty decent horse aged 2 and 3 inc a second in a G3. Last July over CD, in a competitive C2, he came a 3/4L 3rd off OR 100. In effect i’m asking him to repeat that run. If he does, I think he wins this. The following month he came third again over CD in a decent C2, so it’s fair to say he likes the place. He ran on ‘proper soft’ at Goodwood last summer over 10f, where he appeared to handle the ground ok and I think the extra 2f beat him more than anything. That G3 second as a 2 YO was on GS and the trainer’s horses often appreciate a bit of cut. So, I won’t be looking for excuses on the going front – i’d like some rain to take the sting out of it, although he ran a decent race last year in a GF Newbury G3 over 7f, 4th beaten 6L with plenty of good horses around him that have franked the form. That race was won by Barney Roy, who’d go on to win a G1. On his seasonal reappearance at Wetherby he was held up in a way that suggested that wasn’t his day. He then raced over 10f at York and was thereabouts at the mile pole before fading. LTO at Ayr he went well for a long way, maybe doing too much on the front end, before fading late, but it was a decent run. He drops in class here and should be able to get out and up there from his draw. Hopefully he tracks the pace and then outclasses them. This horse should have more handicaps in him. It could be he hasn’t trained on but he is one to track given his mark/past form/ability, and he is only 4. Dods won this race last year also, with a C2 handicapper dropping into a C3 for the first time. Hopefully he can do the same again. As well as Lamloom as a danger, Fashion Theory was high up there also.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat

R Fell

8.00 York – Presidential 11/1 

Top of the Class 

6.40 Newm – Delft Dancer 6/1 

The Doyler

7.40 Newm – Fairlight 4/5 

Jumps

P Brennan (14/1< guide) 

5.05 Uttox – Imperial Elysian 13/2 

Tom Lacey 

3.55 Uttox – Vivant 5/1 

Irish Angles

7.45 Wex – Show And Go 8/1 

*

Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

4.30 Uttox – Kings Reste 4/6 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Big race trends… the report below includes…

  • Friday, Ascot C2 5f Handicap
  • Sat, Ascot International Stakes
  • Sat, York, SkyBet Dash
  • Next Wed, Galway Plate

All HERE>>>

 

Friday

Ascot 5f C2 Handicap

10/165, 34 places

10/10 a max 1lb lower than last start

  • 2lb+ : 0/31, 3p

10/10 had 4+ runs this season

  • 0-3: 0/48, 4p

9/10 had 0-3 wins over distance

  • 4+ : 1/82,12p

8/10 had raced over 7f+ in career

  • Had not: 2/77, 15p

Other

  • 0-2 runs in prev 90 days: 0/35,3p

Track LTO

  • Ascot: 4/43,10p
  • 2x Hamilton / Chester
  • Newmarket (July) 0/25,3p

Trainer

  • R Harris 2/13,3p
  • 1x : M Johnston / B Ellison/ K Ryan/RC Guest/B Smart / P Crate / G Goldie

Only 11 runners for this race which probably makes the stats less relevant, and with the unsettled weather, i’ve decided to leave it. 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

21 Comments

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  • You don’t see many that get three 1s: ie H1 G1 I1. Last time I saw this there was 2 on one day but only 1 won 3/1 I think. So I’ve backed masham star 710Nkt 2pts.

    Mick 26/07/18 8:37 PM Reply


    • That went well didn’t it…all of one yard!

      gallou 27/07/18 8:38 PM Reply


  • Given the uncertain weather tomorrow (barring the one which stuck out like a sore thumb to me) I haven’t looked anywhere other than Chepstow and Uttoxeter. I will try and have a look at the rest at lunch tomorrow but no promises.

    Pomme De Terre York 18:30 1pt e/w-Price available 12/1-I tipped this one in this race last year when he looked a clear winner before getting mugged on the line. He is now 10lbs lower than that run. He came to life last year when they applied the blinkers so it is interesting they go back on here for the first time this season. I like his draw in 2 and he should get to be up there near the rail. He has a 1st and a 2nd both in big fields from his 2 runs over course and distance. He has won over soft and good/firm so he is less dependant on what happens tomorrow than most of the field. Trainer has a great record here including 7/23, 16p +32 in handicaps in the past 12 months. He is currently in great form. Off the last 6 runners he has sent out off breaks off less than 10 days, 3 have won and 2 of the 3 that didn’t ran well so he has a track record of doing well with horses making a quick re-appearance.

    Nick Mazur 26/07/18 8:53 PM Reply


    • completely agree with you Nick, I was on him last year and recall the painful last half furlong. Heavy thunderstorms last night in Leeds and likely to be same today so will take the sting Id think out of the ground.

      Paul Ebrey 27/07/18 8:41 AM Reply


    • Painful that. I was looking at both the winner and 2nd last night but Quick Look who I tipped back in April needed soft so was a far riskier proposition with unknown weather.

      Nick Mazur 27/07/18 6:39 PM Reply


  • Flat Jockey Profits

    No joy today so with one NR it was -10pts for the full list or -4pts for the filtered list.

    Ryan Moore S2 – one win from 3 but a loss of 3.55pts. I personally don’t bet odds-on but that’s just my preference.

    Qualifiers for tomorrow:
    Daniel Tudhope (Thirsk)
    2.35 Ascended 7/4*

    James Doyle (Newmarket-J)
    7.40 Fairlight 5/4*
    8.10 Blue Laureate 5/1
    8.40 Mudallel 8/1

    * Does not qualify for the filtered list

    Very small fields tomorrow, so you may wish to tread carefully but I’ll record to full stakes.

    Martin C – I left a comment for you on yesterday’s post.

    Ken McKenzie 26/07/18 9:31 PM Reply


    • Thanks Ken, I do remember it. My head is scrambled in the heat down south.

      I do look every day where certain jockeys are riding and why they may have gone there. It is interesting when they go to two courses in a day for one or two rides max at either course. Surely they are mostly going with some confidence that it will all be worthwhile especially when they are their retained stable(s) horses? Jockeys such as Franny Norton do it up north for the odd ride at each venue.

      martin colwell 26/07/18 10:20 PM Reply


  • todays qualifiers.
    16:55 Thirsk. Maureb 25-1 sky 4 places
    20:00 York. Withernsea 14-1 only if going good/soft or softer , overnight rain and more forecast so i’ll wait and see before backing.

    martin whittle 27/07/18 7:11 AM Reply


    • can’t believe they are still declaring good/firm at York,Thirsk is only 20 miles away and they are good/soft. more heavy showers on the way so i’m going to back Withernsea and cross my fingers.

      martin whittle 27/07/18 12:30 PM Reply


      • should have added price taken 16-1 sky 4 places

        martin whittle 27/07/18 12:35 PM Reply


      • They’re not. Was changed to good 3 hours ago. I suspect will be good/soft or soft at the start.

        Nick Mazur 27/07/18 1:50 PM Reply


  • Good win yesterday fro Cruising Bye gave guaranteed profit on the day.

    Chris M Selections:
    Newmarket
    17:35 – Margies Choice (10/3 gen)

    Chepstow
    20:20 – Casemates Square (9/1 gen)

    Thirsk
    14:35 – Diva D (14/1 gen)
    16:55 – Miss Dd (12/1 gen)

    Uttoexeter
    5:05 – This Lovely Lady (6/1 gen)

    Wexford
    20:15 – Da Baba Elephant (8/1 gen)

    York
    18:30 – Meshardal (14/1 gen)

    That’s all from me, nothing from me tomorrow as I will be travelling early so no time to have look. Back Monday with update on results and some selections, good luck with your betting today

    Chris M 27/07/18 9:57 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Ascot
    4.10 Austrian School
    5.15 Lady Dancealot
    Thirsk
    4.55 Boundary Lane
    York
    6.30 Points Of Woods
    8.00 Fashion Theory
    Chepstow
    5.50 Mister Musicmaster
    7.50 Secretinthepark

    colin leafe 27/07/18 10:24 AM Reply


    • I dodged the 2 shorties so combined with the winner nice start even with the rule 4.

      Nick Mazur 27/07/18 6:11 PM Reply


      • Ditto, another 5 points for the bank. It’s been a phenomenal month – thank you!

        Francis 27/07/18 9:26 PM Reply


        • Yes, very nice win thank you, Colin, super picking.

          Chris Murrell 27/07/18 10:15 PM Reply


  • Found one more I like:

    Encore dOr Ascot 16:45 1pt e/w-Price available 7/1

    Nick Mazur 27/07/18 1:51 PM Reply


  • Next bet in the starting point chasers sequence is £12 (1.2%) 430 Kings Reste.
    Current profit is £92.93.
    Sorry I forgot.

    chrisrees 27/07/18 4:11 PM Reply


    • Won BSP 2.07 = +£12.20.
      Next Stake £11.

      chrisrees 27/07/18 4:37 PM Reply


  • U.S. Racing tip – Saratoga race 6, 8.48 UK, Conquest Hard Candy, circa 11/2.

    martin colwell 27/07/18 5:07 PM Reply


  • For anyone considering a bet tonight at York, it’s currently monsoon conditions and the forecast is showing rain for at least the next hour. We had torrential rain this morning too. As I type this hail stones 2-3cm have started falling.

    jamiem 27/07/18 6:06 PM Reply


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