Free Daily Post: 27/07/18 (complete)

It’s been a quiet week on here so I have repeated my members’ daily tips below…i’ve hit some form with these in the last 8 days, winning +16 points with a handful of nice winners…it was much needed as my ‘daily tipping’ form has been iffy at best so far this year. 46 horses have placed and i’d have liked a few more of those to win. In part i’ve been a tad unlucky, but i’ve also just been a bit rubbish. Thankfully the ‘Festival/Big race’ tips have pulled in around +200 points this year, so I can’t complain at the wider picture. Anyway, my thoughts for today follow…two pokes in 15+ runner handicaps, i’m probably mad but hopefully they can both run well… from the members’ post…

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 17/180,63p, +2.3) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +140)

Daily Tips

6.30 York – Tylery Wonder – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365/WH) 14/1 (gen)

8.00 York – Kings Gift – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen)

that’s all for tips as of 09.23…

…a tricky day on the weather front awaits with plenty of educated guessing required… it looks like both Chepstow and Uttoxeter will miss any rain and as such they were where I started, but I couldn’t find anything of interest to my eyes. There are various strategy quals at both and fingers crossed a few can hit the board, but I didn’t fancy tipping anything at the prices.

Tylery Wonder… to York then, where they are due some rain. It should take the sting out of the ground and we shall see if it turns the ground soft. This one has won in Ireland on soft before, good is no problem, and at his price I won’t use it as an excuse. Hopefully Nick (Pomme De Terre) or I can nab the winner of this or the S6 (Rasheeq) horse somehow wins. This one has a very good record at the track, 1/6,4p, is moving back down in class, visor back on, and moves up in trip to 6f. It was that trip move that tempted me in, given he hasn’t run over 6f for an age. When trained in Ireland he had a decent record over 6f, with staying on victories in big fields at the Curragh. The stamina is there and in recent runs he’s shaped as if he’s worth a crack at it again. Maybe Midgley has just trained speed back into him and he won’t see it out but at his price I thought he was interesting. He races on the pace/leads, is top rated GG and high up on plenty of Inform measures,inc top rated for the course. He’s second rated in HRB. So, he ticks plenty of boxes. I’d be disappointed if he didn’t place at worst here. Clearly it’s competitive stuff and he isn’t getting any younger. Maybe a less exposed one will have him but at least he arrives in form and he’s usually seen to best effect in big fields. Maybe his legs have gone for a test like this but i’ll pay to find out. There is plenty of pace middle to low and given the trip move I expect Makin to track it, and stay on past them all in the final furlong. He may try and lead, we shall see. I’m hopeful of getting a run for my money anyway and he won’t have any ground excuses, whatever it does- albeit if it turns proper soft that may stretch his stamina.

Kings Gift – i thought 8s was just about fair here and a case could be made that he should be a tad shorter. I thought there was a lot to like about his chance. I started looking at the pace set up and making a case for Lamloom,who I may have a saver on. I thought Danny T may be able to lead on him from his draw and he isn’t without a chance. When looking at the race as a whole I then had a look at those trainers ‘in form’ and was lured into the Dods runner. In general they are going well, 6/34,18p the last 14 days. He is 7/24,16p at the track in the last year, +40, and ‘Roddy’ rides the track well, 4/18,8p in his career to date. The horse has his 4th start of the season here and his first ever go in a C3 handicap, having been running in C2s. Three starts back he was rated 100, and with the claim now races off 90. He was a pretty decent horse aged 2 and 3 inc a second in a G3. Last July over CD, in a competitive C2, he came a 3/4L 3rd off OR 100. In effect i’m asking him to repeat that run. If he does, I think he wins this. The following month he came third again over CD in a decent C2, so it’s fair to say he likes the place. He ran on ‘proper soft’ at Goodwood last summer over 10f, where he appeared to handle the ground ok and I think the extra 2f beat him more than anything. That G3 second as a 2 YO was on GS and the trainer’s horses often appreciate a bit of cut. So, I won’t be looking for excuses on the going front – i’d like some rain to take the sting out of it, although he ran a decent race last year in a GF Newbury G3 over 7f, 4th beaten 6L with plenty of good horses around him that have franked the form. That race was won by Barney Roy, who’d go on to win a G1. On his seasonal reappearance at Wetherby he was held up in a way that suggested that wasn’t his day. He then raced over 10f at York and was thereabouts at the mile pole before fading. LTO at Ayr he went well for a long way, maybe doing too much on the front end, before fading late, but it was a decent run. He drops in class here and should be able to get out and up there from his draw. Hopefully he tracks the pace and then outclasses them. This horse should have more handicaps in him. It could be he hasn’t trained on but he is one to track given his mark/past form/ability, and he is only 4. Dods won this race last year also, with a C2 handicapper dropping into a C3 for the first time. Hopefully he can do the same again. As well as Lamloom as a danger, Fashion Theory was high up there also.

*

Best of luck with any bets,

Josh

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

4 Comments

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  • Friday 27th July Ascot and Newmarket
    Not much to cheer about in my pre-race ratings yesterday and perhaps it is time to re-assess whether they are worthwhile much after Ascot. I will continue to post them when I can but drop out the ratings bets unless I have a very positive view. In future they will be less ratings orientated, more on what I have seen and the background stats I use.
    A good example of how as the season goes on the algorhythmic stats seem to be less effective was provided at Sandown yesterday where Koduro was clear top on pre-race ratings but as soon as they entered the paddock it was clear that she was an inferior model to several of the others. It is no help my putting up rating bets here and then seeing that they were without a chance before the race goes off. I will elaborate more on this in some sort of mid-season review.
    I also need to be more consistent in how I put up bets as there have been too many missed opportunities. A glaring example is from a couple of weeks ago when I posted Greeley as a value bet when he was 28/1 in a reply to one of Nick’s posts but did not put it up here.
    Today Greeley gets his second opportunity in a Nursery and has a very good chance of following up in the 6.40 at Newmarket. He is up 11lbs but I rated him 70 when I saw him on debut and I have top weight Dombra on 74 after seeing him a couple of times. Dombra is carrying 14lbs more. Dangers abound but he won in good style last time despite still appearing to have a tendency to ‘think’ when asked to get on with it.
    Bet 1pt e/w win Greeley 6.40 Newmarket.
    Ascot 1.50 7f Fillies Mdn
    1. Ceratonia, Flighty Almighty, Octavia Minor
    2. Just Be Friendly, Queen Constantine
    3. Embrace The Moment, Teresita Alvarez
    Not a race to get involved with until they have been seen.
    Ascot 2.25 6f Mdn
    Ratings
    1. Almania, Crantock Bay, Lethal Guest, Production, Swindler
    2. Harbour Spirit, Power Link.
    Almania cost 500k but will Sir Michael have him fully tuned and will 6f be far enough? I’ll put up a picture later.
    Hugh

    alpha2 27/07/18 9:26 AM Reply


    • Missed Greeley today but great shout Hugh – well done.

      Francis 27/07/18 9:27 PM Reply


    • Very nice analysis again, Hugh, thank you for keeping me on Greeley despite the weight rise.

      Chris Murrell 27/07/18 10:19 PM Reply


  • Late start today, profit yesterday @ bog 2.3, sp 2

    A 3.00 – Sppedo Boy @ 5
    3.35 – Clo Coulis @ 13/2
    4.10 – First Nation @ 3
    5.15 – Ocelot @ 12
    T 3.10 – Here in the dark @ 8
    5.25 – Life for Rent @ 10/3
    C 8.55 – Native Soldier @ 11
    N 6.40 – Delft Dancer @ 11/2
    7.10 – Rogue @ 2
    8.10 – Blue Laureate @ 9/2
    8.40 – Del Parco @ 4
    Y 8.30 – Machree @ 11

    jumps
    U 1.40 – Sprogzilla @ 40

    Titus 27/07/18 10:56 AM Reply


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