Members Daily Post: 26/07/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Yarmouth

5.10 –

Late Change (all hncps 5 yrs, all) ES+ I3 G3 9/2 S3A#  WON 9/2>13/2 

City Guest (micro class) 12/1 UP

 

Doncaster

7.00- Peak Princess (m age) H3 I1 G3 6/1 S2 S4 S5 S6

 

Sandown

None.

Newbury

None.

 

JUMPS

 

Worcester

2.10- Southport (all hncps) 10/1 S2 3rd 

2.40 – Cruising Bye (hncp chase + m class) 14,30 H3 13/2 WON 13/2>6/1

3.15 – Murray Mount (m age) I3 18/1 S2A S5 UP

5.20 –

Royal Escape (m class) 14,30 33/1 

Tidal Watch (m class) w2 w1 14,30 H1 I3 6/5 

5.55 –

Balkinstown (hncp h) 30 H3 9/2 2nd 

Coisa Blanco (m class) 14,30 12/1 UP

Phoenix Rock (m class) 14,30 6/1 UP

 

*

KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 16/178,62p, -6.7) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +140)

Daily Tips

2.10 Worc – Midnight Gem – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) UP 11/2, well that was depressingly poor,couldn’t build on the run LTO, got the easy lead, but faded tamely turning for home.

5.55 Worc – Little Windmill – 1 point win – (8/1 Lad/coral/BV) 7/1 (gen) WON 8/1>10/1

that’s all for tips, 09.25, 

Midnight Gem... I thought 9/1 was a bit big in the context of this race and that she had a decent chance of notching her first chase win here. While she has only won once in her career, she generally gives her running when getting conditions to suit and I thought in 2nd time CP she could build on that last run. POB jumps back on and takes off  handy 5lb and she drops in trip, which looks more suitable. I’m not sure she quite stays 2m7f+ effectively but did run well the last day, and responded to pressure before flattening out late on. She was beaten than day by an unexposed chaser who has yet to reappear but the front three were someway clear of the rest. Cruising Bye was upsides and he’s a solid yardstick for the level and if MG wins that will improve his chances in the 2.40. She did jump out to the left at times here LTO but she improved as the race went on and with any luck she will jump a bit straighter on her second start here. Three starts back at MR she wasn’t beaten far in a race where the winner has since won again. Longsdon has been in decent enough form and the horse can race prominently. I’d hope that with this drop in trip they really make some use of her and are aggressive on the front end. A repeat of that last run should put her in the mix here and she should have track position on a few in the race. She looked to be the overpriced one here but we will find out soon enough.

Little Windmill… his trainer is 1/6,5p in the last 14 days and they are all generally running while this one has yet to win, or place, in a handicap hurdle, I thought if he repeated that run two starts ago in a C4, hed’ take all the beating here. Given his chase mark/the level he has performed to in the past, were he every to transfer that to hurdles he would be thrown in. With the jockey claim he is 9lb lower than that hurdles run which was over an inadequate trip but the race has worked out well… 8 different horses have run since, 3 winning, another placing. The front two have since won again and the horse behind him has since gone in. It looks a solid race for the time of year and he now moves back up to a more suitable trip and down into a C5. Wind surgery appears to have done the trick as his last two runs have been the best for some time and he arrives in form, running on LTO at Cartmel. This is another that can race prominently/lead, in a race lacking much pace on paper at least. I thought he could show himself to be very well handicapped here and have too much for these. Time will tell whether that’s correct. Balkinstown wouldn’t be a shock winner but felt the right price for one who doesn’t win that often but did win this race last year.

 

 

Recent Losing Tips

(2018, 07/06/18- ; 16/108, +12)

(posted for 3 runs after being tipped/stop at a winner)

2.40 Worc – Royale Django (2nd run) 16/1 UP

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat

R Fell

5.15 Donc – Muatadel 4/1 

Top of the Class

6.10 Newb – Legends of War 8/15

6.40 Newb – To The Moon 5/1 

Jumps

Tom Lacey 

2.40 Worc – Kings Spirit  4/1 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Big race trends… the report below includes…

  • Friday, Ascot C2 5f Handicap
  • Sat, Ascot International Stakes
  • Sat, York, SkyBet Dash
  • Next Wed, Galway Plate

All HERE>>>

I’ll be using those to help point the way, but for those of you who like to get cracking early, hopefully they help. If you land on any AP bets or whatever, do shout!

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

24 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Flat Jockey Profits

    One runner, one winner, 6pts profit today.

    Qualifiers for tomorrow:

    Adam Kirby (Sandown)
    3.25 Dream Machine 7/1

    Oisin Murphy (Newbury)
    8.50 Ragstone View 5/2*

    Jim Crowley (Newbury)
    6.10 Motafaawit 13/2
    6.40 Kibrah 9/1
    7.15 Tahreek 2/1*
    8.50 He’s Our Star 7/2*

    * does not qualify for filtered list

    Ryan Moore S2 (Leopardstown)
    6.00 Eminence 3/1
    6.35 Goddess 4/7
    7.10 Anthony Van Dyck 8/15

    Not enough data for Ryan Moore S2 (RM/AO’B combo) so no filter applied yet.

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 25/07/18 9:34 PM Reply


    • Thanks Ken your work is much appreciated

      christopher JONES 25/07/18 10:18 PM Reply


      • Thanks. Nice to know someone out there is watching haha.

        Ken McKenzie 25/07/18 10:29 PM Reply


        • I’m playing the selections Ken,small stakes but I’m glad you put them on here.
          Andy

          Andy Ness 25/07/18 10:41 PM Reply


          • Yes, well done Ken. I am tracking the selections. You said that you were going to do some work on filters re SP etc on these micros. Did you do that? Sorry if I missed any of it.

            I follow Ryan Moore when he goes onto the all weather and separately when he rides O’Brien horses outside Ireland. I do not back odds on but think it may be best to back these selections at 2/1+.

            martin colwell 26/07/18 7:54 AM Reply


            • Hi Martin

              I did a post on Sunday showing best odds range for SP and my proposed night before odds range.

              Ken McKenzie 26/07/18 5:06 PM Reply


    • Just a word of caution as regards AOBrian runners this evening some of the yard are scoping dirty it isnt stopping him running them though(ATR this morning )

      Aaron 26/07/18 1:23 PM Reply


  • Smiling Jessica Worcester Thursday 14:40 1pt e/w Price available 13/2
    Autumn Leaves Sandown Thursday 16:00 1pt e/w Price available 9/1
    Savannah Beau Doncaster Thursday 17:15 1pt e/w Price available 14/1
    Marjus Quest Worcester Thursday 17:20 1pt e/w Price available 22/1

    Nick Mazur 25/07/18 10:20 PM Reply


    • Autumn Leaves, hammered in the betting, just does enough to land a big punt @ 3/1.
      Well done.

      gallou 26/07/18 4:09 PM Reply


    • Thanks very much Nick smashed the value with your first selection so it was due to you

      Aaron 26/07/18 4:22 PM Reply


  • todays qualifiers.
    14:10 Worcester. Wings Of Smoke 14-1
    17:55 Worcester. High Counsel 16-1 4 places sky
    17:15 Doncaster. Swanton Blue 18-1

    martin whittle 26/07/18 1:04 AM Reply


    • Hi Martin,

      Are these bets 1pt win or ew
      Have been backing to win.
      Thanks

      utsav_killa 26/07/18 9:25 AM Reply


      • these are just a system trial and wouldn’t advice backing them, results are to 1/2 pt ew @£4 a pt and showing a loss of nearly £120 at the moment.

        martin whittle 26/07/18 9:20 PM Reply


  • Josh,

    Pretty sure I know the answer to this but with the individual strategies do you recommend keeping a separate bank for each “S”? So for example if we are following your recommended strategies for the flat (S1,S4, S6 & S3A#) and were playing with £5 bets would I put £5 on Late Change and £10 on Peak Princess.

    Appreciate that it is up to the individual how to bet at the end of the day but is that how you base your recommendations?

    Cheers

    Ben

    921389 26/07/18 9:59 AM Reply


    • Hi Ben
      A question that crops up on now and then and not a definitive answer. I used to bet from one bank and increase for for each ‘S’ and ‘ES’ but after a while it became clear that certain strategies out perform others so I have separate banks and increase pt value accordingly. If nothing else I’d keep jumps S2 separate as it is by far the best profit but subject to long losing runs. If using one bank for the rest I’d be very conservative with a bank of 300 pts
      Mike

      Titus 26/07/18 10:17 AM Reply


      • Thanks Mike.

        921389 26/07/18 10:24 AM Reply


        • Hi Ben,
          Well I still have S3A# in the ‘to consider/monitoring’ pile, mainly as i only started tracking Flat this year, no 2017 results, and jumps only from Sept, which is unlike the rest that have a bit more history behind them- but logically, given the stats approach it’s based on and the constant of the ratings pointers, touch wood that continues – I see no reason why it wouldn’t, albeit at the last update the flat had wiped it’s face so far this year.

          The others…well in the ‘where to begin’ doc there is that ‘win% to losing runs’ table and I really you want to be able to cover every maximum losing run at least once, and if being cautious you’d say twice.
          So for S1 + S4, you will hit 25 every thousand bets for each, roughly, and everything in between plenty of times. So, you could say 50 points for each if being very conservative, so 100 points the pair. , S3A# would be similar.
          S6 is 12% or so, so that will be losing runs around 55 approx, every 1000 bets.
          S2A is win only 10% or so long term, but only 6.5% so far this year , that will hit and has done, losing runs on win side in 66-80 range, every now and then.

          So, all those together, if being ultra conservative, you’d say 250 or so for S1/4/6 + S3A# . I would have a separate bank for Jumps S2A as that is very choppy, less so EW s a 20% win/place.

          I thought 150 odd would have been fine for S1/S4/S6 – as it would be rather unlucky for all three to have their maximum losing runs all at the same time, but 150 for those 3 would cover the worst, and a bit more pain on top of that.

          I would view each strategy sep and thus would include backing multiple times if hits 2+ strategies. i don’t know results if just backing once, regardless of how many it hits, but it would be profitable but not as much I don’t think.
          As with any such approach it’s about starting small, £2/2.50 bets say, and building up in time. The historical results and the constant of ratings pointers for said strategies, give me confidence longer term, but as always proof is in the eating.
          ideally any strategy followers can find a way forward that brings in 80-100 points a year minimum, which even at small stakes pays for subs and leaves a bit left over.
          Josh

          Josh 26/07/18 10:53 AM Reply


          • Thanks Josh.

            921389 26/07/18 2:50 PM Reply


        • I should have added my bank sizes. 50 pts for treble rated, w1,w2 and s3#, 100 the rest

          Titus 26/07/18 10:56 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Yarmouth
    4.10 Global Rose taking on the odds on fav for GR dropping in class fav going up in class.
    Doncaster
    5.15 Points Of Wood
    6.25 Be Perfect
    7.00 Island Cloud

    colin leafe 26/07/18 10:09 AM Reply


  • Silkstone ran well to claim third but was never in with a chance of the win.

    Chris M Selections:
    Worcester
    14:10 – Scrumpy Boy (7/1 bet365, 13/2 gen)
    14:40 – Cruising Bye (13/2 gen)

    Doncaster
    17:15 – Savannah Beau (12/1 bet365, 11/1 gen)

    Leopardstown
    20:45 – Hudsons Bay (7/1 gen)

    Good luck with your bets today!

    Chris M 26/07/18 10:09 AM Reply


  • Handicap Winners bets:-
    200 At Your Service
    240 What A Laugh
    315 Jamacho
    325 Aardwolf
    515 Swanton Blue
    555 Howlongisafoot
    625 Abel Tasman
    850 Lucky Louie

    chrisrees 26/07/18 1:38 PM Reply


    • On a day when I was confident – no winners 🙁 so, after the good start, I see no merit in continuing.

      chrisrees 27/07/18 11:27 AM Reply


  • A winner Josh a winner Nick and some others spread around. Well done

    Paul Ebrey 26/07/18 6:41 PM Reply


Post A Reply