Members Daily Post: 24/07/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Ffos Las

4.10 – Sir Pass I Am (all hncps 5 yrs) 14 ES+  6/1 S3A UP

4.40 – Brockey Rise (micro dist move) 11/1

 

Musselburgh

3.25 – Eternalist (m runs) w1 14 H1 I3 2/1 S2 UP

3.55 – Different Journey (4yo+) I1 G1 10/3 S1 UP

4.30 –

Donnelly’s Rainbow (all hncps) ES+ 13/2 S3A UP

Gabrial The Tiger (m age) H3 I1 6/1 S2 S6 WON 6/1 

5.00 – Scottsdale (all hncps) G1 9/1 S6 UP 11/1

5.35 – Andy’s Girl (all hncps) 10/1 UP

 

Nottingham 

6.00 – Liquid Lunch (1st 2YO) 6/1 UP

6.30 –

Danehill Desert (3yo+, m TJC/age) G1 10/3 2nd 

Classic Pursuit (m dist) H3 I1 9/2 S2 UP

7.00 – Zip Along (3yo+, m TJC/age/runs) (hncp debut) w1 H1 I3 Evens S2 WON 5/4 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 16/177,61p, -5.7) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +140)

Daily Tips

4.40 Ffos Las – Brockey Rise- 1 point win – 11/1 (gen)

8.00 Notts – Turquoise Bay – 1 point win – 11/2 (bet365/BetfS/PP) 5/1 (gen)

prices as of 09.24…

Brockey Rise… this one’s a bit of a punt in truth but i’m not sure the market will be much of a guide as I suspect whatever he does may be a surprise to connections, given the 1st time blinkers. I noted that he won in a first time visor as a 2 year old and I thought it of some interest that they drop him down to 5f here. He runs as if he will be taken off his feet over this trip but you apply blinkers to in effect scare a horse into running forward, to focus, and to try and ensure they exert maximum effort- given he stays further, surely they will try and blast out here and attempt to make all/race up there. He may not be quick enough, and he may go too fast early and fade, but I get double figures in an open race in which to find out. 3 turf starts ago he was running off OR 70 and today he’s on OR58. He ran ok in a Windsor C5 a few starts back but is clearly a bit inconsistent. He is still lightly raced on  turf and is only 3, so some hope that there is more to come/more wins, moving forward. I liked the fact Fran Berry got the leg up again. It’s an interesting jockey change and when teaming up with Evans in 5f handicaps they are 7/16,9p, +33. They are 2/3,3p in Ffos Las handicaps. His chance revolves around how he responds to blinkers and what they do with him- if they race him up there in a controlled fashion, and he can stretch, he will go close for me. He will either do a Cheeni (still running) or an Optimum Time, (a decent 14/1 winner for S6) in 1st time headgear, hopefully the latter! I thought Silently could be the main danger here/looked interesting at an ok price, and as with yesterday’s ‘saver’ winner at Windsor, wouldn’t put you off a saver here either.

Turquoise Bay… i thought this one looked intriguing here in what I considered to be a 3 horse race. I thought this one was a couple of points too big and should be 3/1, 7/2 based on what i’ve unearthed. The two at the top of the market are both still maidens also and for me look as if connections can’t decide what the right trip is. They are worth taking on for me, but of course one of the others I have discarded will now bolt up! My ‘way in’ was the trainer form icon, Dwyer having a 14 next to his name in the geegeez racecard (as does A King). I also noted this ones makes handicap debut and Dwyer doesn’t have many of those, but he is 3/9 in the last 2 years, +12. Lewis Edmunds jumps on for the first time which I thought was a positive given trainer/jockey are 11/39,14p in all handicaps (AW+turf), +27. (that’s worth noting) It’s also worth noting that with 3 year olds in handicaps (all handicaps) Dwyer is 35/180,62p, +118 in the last 5 years (i’m going to dig into that in HRB), 6/11,6p with Edmunds on. Dwyer doesn’t send many to Notts, 1/10,4p in the last 5 years, that improves to 1/4,3p in good to firm handicaps here. This USA bred (aussie sire) is also related to some decent US graded winners, and this one is either moderate or for me may be chucked in off a mark of 61. (-3 lb claim) He steps up in trip also to 1m which on breeding should suit and he returns 22 days after his last start. That run at Wolvs was after 47 days, and he was never really in it, being held up in a race where it paid to race handy. It could be he didn’t like the surface either but the trainer got his mark to drop 2lb. He ticked plenty of interesting boxes, given his profile, the number of things he is doing different, and the accompanying stats etc. The one niggle, other than the fact he’s a maiden/second time blinkers, is the lack of pace in the race…Winston may be able to dictate here but I hope Edmunds has him handy, and he rides the track well. There shouldn’t be an excuse on the stamina front anyway, as this won’t be strongly run, unless he decides to make all. Not impossible. But, in a race that could be tactical, having a horse that is potentially much better than his mark/the oppo, ensures he could outclass them with a burst of speed. He does have a long straight to wind up on also. I thought 11/2 was fair enough in the context of this race/the oppo, and i’m intrigued to see how he gets on. I’d be surprised if he didn’t win one of his next three, hopefully it’s today.

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Recent Tips

(2018, 07/06/18- ; 14/105, +4.5)

6.30 Notts – Tallinski (3rd run) WON 6/1 

7.30 Notts – Eponina (1st run) WON 5/2 

 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

NEW

The Doyler

8.10 Chelm- With A Start (any odds) 9/2

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Galway 2018:Trainer/owner pointers : READ HERE>>>

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The Doyler

Given James Doyle’s exploits on Sunday at the Curragh I thought i’d take a look to see whether there are any angles we can exploit, certainly as starting points. It would appear that focusing on maidens/novices may be the way forward, at certain tracks. So.. (and these exclude Saeed Bin Suroor runners, who he no longer rides for) for the last three year since since start of 2016…

  • Maiden / Novice races
  • Horse Run Career: between 0-2 
  • Track: Doncaster / Lingfielf (both AW/turf) / Wolvs / Yarmouth / Chelmsford / Newmarket (July) 
  • Any odds

 

112 bets / 52 wins / 83 places (inc wins) / 46% sr / +65 SP / +84 BFSP / AE 1.49 

 

He now has an association with William Haggas and is 8/19,15p for him within the angle above. Charlie Appleby has used him plenty as has Hugo Palmer and John Gosden. Those are the main four and those Haggas stats should only creep in one direction. He also has wins for the likes of Charlton/Johnston/Hills/Botti/Dunlop/Varian/Crisford. He is clearly very good on younger horses but also given the yards he rides for is getting the leg up on some ‘nice types’. While he must ride those tracks, of course the trainers he rides for will most likely target said track (s) with those that are ready/are not handicap projects. Logically there is no reason why it shouldn’t work systematically. I have focused on those tracks where he has ridden 5 or more winners within the other rules. In time more will be added no doubt. Those trainers are forming the habit of booking him on likely winners/improvers early on in their careers and IF they keep buying/getting sent the ammunition to develop, it should keep ticking along. He is a classy jockey and in any case it’s a decent ‘way in’, esp for those of you who like the unexposed horses/like looking at the breeding etc. There are no massive odds winners swaying those stats, the biggest price is 12/1 SP, with only 6 horses sent off at bigger, 2 placing at 16s. Time will tell how it goes.

 

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Musselburgh ‘through the card’ 

Info starting points…

Trainer Race Pointers

Festivals/race trends…Trainers that have won said race 2x or more and have a runner

Non trends races…those that won the race last year 

Trainers ‘in form’

’14’Geegeez Symbol as per key 

Top Rated Runners

Those horses top rated on HorseRaceBase / Geegeez / Inform

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2.20 

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

Cascella / Eva Docc 

Top Rated Runners

Twilight / Silvington / Song of Summer

 

2.50 

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

Beechwood Ella 

Top Rated Runners

Kilbarchan W/ Samantha James / Kilbarchan W

 

3.25 

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

Eternalist

Top Rated Runners

Eternalist / Landing Knight W/ Economic Crisis

 

3.55 

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

Falcon’s Fire / New Abbey Angel 

Top Rated Runners

Pour Lamour / Different Journey / Different Journey 

 

4.30 

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

Jacob Black 

Top Rated Runners

Jacob Black / Its Never Enough / Gabrial The Tiger W

 

5.00

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

Great Fighter 

Top Rated Runners

Great Fighter / Scottsdale / Great Fighter 

 

5.35 

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

/

Top Rated Runners

Nor Batt / Nora Batt / Thornaby Princess 

 

Course form... those that are top rated in Inform Speed for the track (for those that have run here) in race order…

R1 Eva Doc / R2 Samantha James / R3 Landing Knight / R4 Colour Contrast / R5 Jacob Black / R6 Great Fighter / R7 Thornaby Princess 

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My Thoughts... all the usual caveats, given time I spend on these is rather brief/instinct using pointers etc 🙂

2.20 – Song of Summer UP/ Silvington UP

2.50 – Dancing On A Dream 2nd (neck) / Beechwood Ellen UP (market may guide,worth a paddock inspection!)

3.25 – Super Florence 2nd (neck) (Eternalist strong but short enough in an ok race albeit hacked up 20 days ago, one for PP maybe)

3.55 – Different Journey UP (hopefully a different class to this lot over distance,track Falcolns and then leave them all for dead, maybe!)

4.30 – Gabrial The Tiger W (Jacob Black strong but for track side change worth taking on at 5/6, maybe these two will be 1-2 W 11/1 …)

5.00 – Four Kingdoms 2nd (neck) (Scottsdale looks up against it for S6 to my eye, but has had a wind op and will stay i suspect,so not a shock winner,but faces a load of in form rivals)

5.55 – Nora Batt W (strong on speed figures,always a pos over 5f, short though) Andy’s Girl UP (for bigger priced change,1st blinkers need to work)

 

Do with that as you please, some method to my madness on a trappy card. I’ve trusted the clerk of the course and assumed its Good to Firm, Good in places, could still be enough sting/rattle in ground if that’s a true reflection…looks like the rain may have just helped maintain the going, but we shall see after first couple of races. 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

35 Comments

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  • Hi Josh

    Just a note to say its raining pretty hard here west of Edinburgh and looks like its heading Musselburgh way. In case that might change your deliberations if you get a chance to look through the card.

    Cheers

    Ken McKenzie 23/07/18 8:15 PM Reply


    • Hi Ken, it’s on the list for the morning, after i’ve done everything else. Ran out of time this evening and about to switch off for day. I did not it may be wet so best holding fire anyway, always horrid when a guessing game.

      Josh 23/07/18 8:20 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh. Much appreciated. Hopefully one or two winners in that lot.

        Ken McKenzie 24/07/18 11:23 AM Reply


  • Tallinski Nottingham Tuesday 18:30 1pt e/w Price taken 7/1-Tipped up 2 starts ago when 2nd to a horse who was smashed up all day and running in a class 5 for the first time in 3 years. This looks easier with 5 of the field aged 7 years or older. Has a 1st and a 2nd over course and distance and should be able to race prominently. Trainer applies first time blinkers. Has been dropped a further pound and I would be disappointed if he was out of the first 3 (so cue 4th)!

    Nick Mazur 23/07/18 8:27 PM Reply


    • My word a winner!

      Nick Mazur 24/07/18 6:34 PM Reply


      • Well done Nick. Good to have you back in the winner’s enclosure!

        Francis 24/07/18 6:37 PM Reply


        • Nice one Nick, knew you’d be back.

          Aidan Trimble 24/07/18 6:38 PM Reply


    • back in the groove Nick, good work

      Chris Albin 24/07/18 6:46 PM Reply


    • Wasn’t entirely convinced by the jockey looking over their shoulder half a furlong out but was easy enough in the end. Thanks

      Chris Sengelow 24/07/18 7:00 PM Reply


    • Thanks Nick normal service resumed please God Josh’ s selection goes in (been well backed )

      Aaron 24/07/18 7:35 PM Reply


    • Nick good to see you have a winner lets hope that it is the start of another good run.

      colin leafe 24/07/18 7:42 PM Reply


      • A winner each, good stuff you two, thank you.

        Chris Murrell 24/07/18 9:19 PM Reply


  • AW Results Update:
    w/c 16 July
    Staked 11pts, Profit 6pts, ROI 54.55% or £30 to £5 stakes.

    AW racing at Newcastle and Chelmsford. Qualifiers below:

    Newcastle
    1.40 Jumira Prince 7/2
    4.20 Top Offer 9/2
    4.50 Frank’s Legacy 4/1

    Chelmsford
    6.10 Sandkissed 12/1 & Agent of Fortune 10/1
    7.10 Solar Flair 5/1
    7.40 Pheidippides 10/1
    9.10 Conkering Hero 9/2

    1pt win each

    Slight revision to Newcastle strategy. Stats suggest there are more lower odds winners here than at other tracks so threshold lowered.

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 23/07/18 8:55 PM Reply


  • Flat Jockey Profits

    The only runner today, Geetanjali, lost but it wasn’t on the filtered system, so no money lost there.

    There are a number of qualifiers for Tuesday

    Ryan Moore S1 (Chelmsford)
    7.10 Cenotaph 9/4
    8.10 Weekday 11/2

    Jim Crowley (Chelmsford)
    6.40 Moyassar 8/11*
    7.10 Ekhtiyaar 7/2*
    7.40 George 9/1
    8.10 Shaji 16/1
    8.40 Etisalat 5/1

    William Buick (Chelmsford)
    7.10 Maakaasib 7/1
    7.40 Pilot Wings 11/2
    8.10 Exeat 10/1
    8.40 Highlight Reel 5/1

    Paul Hanagan (Notts)
    6.00 Liquid Lunch 6/1
    6.30 Danehill Desert 10/3
    7.00 Zip Along evens*
    8.30 Artic Nel 9/2

    Those highlighted with an asterisk do not qualify under the filtered system.

    Obviously, there are a number of duplicate/triplicate races. Some of them also clash with my AW tips. I make no judgement. It’s up to you whether you take them all or find your own way of reducing the numbers. I’ll record them all though.

    Good luck whatever you do.

    Ken McKenzie 23/07/18 10:30 PM Reply


    • Cheers Ken. Enjoy your day out tomorrow. If the weather is anything like it is in Glasgow, you’ll definitely need the wet weather gear!

      neilmck 23/07/18 10:33 PM Reply


    • Cheers Ken,

      enjoy the day at the races. If it rains take a photo and send it south. Scorched earth in Kent and hot day and night.

      martin colwell 24/07/18 8:07 AM Reply


    • On the jockeys front I see that Spencer and Atzeni go to Newcastle today, but leave before the last two races, presumably to catch a plane back to Newmarket. Interesting that Spencer makes the effort to ride two for Simcock and one for Stoute.

      martin colwell 24/07/18 9:41 AM Reply


    • Cheers Ken!

      Hoping to go to Chelmsford this evening, plenty to choose from here and top riders too, fingers crossed for some winners on a sizzling hot day 🙂

      Cheers,
      Nige C

      Nige C 24/07/18 10:28 AM Reply


      • Boom, thanks Ken, splattering of winners and had also has a 1-2 forecast in the last 🙂

        Cheers,
        Nige C

        Nige C 24/07/18 9:21 PM Reply


  • no qualifiers.
    i will be having a small ew in the 16:40 Ffos Las on Spin Top @ 16-1, runs off his lowest ever mark, first time cheekpieces.

    martin whittle 24/07/18 1:35 AM Reply


    • Hi Martin I spotted Spin Top last night also, the only negative for me was he has never won on turf and only placed once in eight tries, I’m not trying to put you off, on the positive William Muir and Martin Dwyer have good course stats.

      Greg Phillips 24/07/18 7:23 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Musselburgh
    3.25 Landing Night
    5.35 Imperial Legend
    Newcastle
    4.20 Mossy’s Lodge
    Ffos Las
    4.40 Molly Jones

    colin leafe 24/07/18 9:30 AM Reply


    • Great start Colin

      christopher jones 24/07/18 3:33 PM Reply


    • Thanks Colin. One of my mates had landing night. Pooled bets of course haha 🙂

      Ken McKenzie 24/07/18 3:40 PM Reply


      • Forecast??? I’m enjoying a second place on today’s card so far haha. Well done.

        Josh 24/07/18 3:51 PM Reply


  • Hi josh. I’ve got Gabrial the tiger 430 Musselburgh as a S6 qualifier.

    Mick 24/07/18 10:00 AM Reply


    • Ah yes, well he’s got a top rated symbol and is 6/1 + on price i’ve entered, so indeed he is! An admin error haha. cheers.

      Josh 24/07/18 10:03 AM Reply


      • Good spot!

        Chris Sengelow 24/07/18 4:35 PM Reply


        • Ha, well the ‘s6’ is just an added extra to save time/know on the right thing, but occasionally I appear to shut my eyes in the morning and miss odd one, updated in good time mind before post complete and all info was there to determine him as an S6, just needs a red H1, I1 , G1 (1 or more), and 6/1 or bigger price on morning odds, or if you back night before… evening bettors would have got 15/2 or so on him.

          Josh 24/07/18 4:38 PM Reply


      • Woopy do

        Mick 24/07/18 4:37 PM Reply


  • Chris M Selections:
    Chelmsford
    20:40 – Walk on Walter (5/1 gen)

    Ballinrobe
    18:50 – Nearly Famous (15/2 gen)
    20:50 – Whatsafellatodo (25/1 gen) * advised as 0.5pt EW

    Newcastle
    15:15 – Etasia (7/1 gen)

    Good luck with you betting!

    Chris M 24/07/18 10:15 AM Reply


    • Couple of crackers there so far Chris. Good luck with the last 2.

      James M 24/07/18 7:08 PM Reply


      • Yeah first half went great with two nice wins, pity the other two were no where to be seen. Still a nice profit on the day is what counts

        ChrisM 24/07/18 11:08 PM Reply


  • 2.10 NEWCASTLE (1) BERCHENY = A. ATZENI ON ANY R.CHARLTON HORSES IN ANY NON HCP RACES = 7/1 TAKEN 1PT E/W (WOULD HAVE LIKED THE TRAINER TO BE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CURRENT FORM BUT JOCKEY/TRAINER COMBO MEANS BUSINESS)

    THANKS FOR ALL THE HELPFUL INSIGHTS THIS SITE CONTINUALLY DELIVERS THIS AND THE SP2A .. ARE ( AS TINA ONCE SANG) SIMPLY THE BEST …………INFORMATIVE AND STRATEGICAL OPTIONS I HAVE FOUND SO FAR THAT FIT IN WITH MY CURRENT ARMOURY AGAINST THE ENEMY :0) … KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK !! 🙂

    BC

    BRIAN 24/07/18 11:02 AM Reply


  • Handicap winners selections:-
    325 Economic Crisis
    740 George
    840 Real Estate
    910 Final Choice

    chrisrees 24/07/18 12:16 PM Reply


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