Members Daily Post: 22/07/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Redcar

2.00 – 

Hoofa (2YO) 10/1 

Kingson (2YO) 10/1 

4.55 – Giants Treasure (micro TJC/Age) 14 5/1 

5.30 – Miss Sheridan (m TJC) w1 H1 4/1 

 

JUMPS

Newton Abbot 

3.35 – Guerrilla Tactics (hncp chase) H1 I3 4/1 

4.45 – Top Chief (m class) w2 11/2 

 

Stratford

None. 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 16/176,61p, -4.7) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +140)

None, i’m taking a ‘day off’ from thinking horse.

Saturday was nearly a horror show but thankfully Haggas saved the day at Newbury to cover all the losers I tipped. It was a poor day at Market Rasen and much to ponder on that abysmal effort.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Paddy Brennan (14/1<guide) 

5.05 Strat – Bleu Et Or 

Irish Angles

2.05 Tipp – Burndown 

3.50 – Monbeg Chit Chat / Tisamystery 

A Dunn (25/1< guide) 

2.45 Strat – Thahab Ifraj 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

In case you missed it and want something thrilling to read on your Sunday 🙂

Important Results Update

I have brought all the results up to date including the links in the Key above. The below is the summary since 4th June…

Results Update  

(4thJune-15 thJuly) 

Summary below, links in Key for Jumps + Flat Strategies have been updated

Summary

TOTAL (strategies) (Section 1): (from 4th June to 15th July)

  • JUMPS – S1 (/) S2 (1/51,5p, -36, -45 BFSP) S2A (subset of S2… 0/16,0p, -16) S3 (2/12,4p, +8) S3A (6/25,7p, +9) S3A# (4/19,5p, +1) S4 (/) S5 (2/22,2p, -1.5, +4.3 BFSP)
  • FLAT 2018: S1 (7/25,10p, +6) S2 (21/66,31p, +35) S3A (9/63,19p, -14) S3A# (5/25,9p, -1)  S4 (14/48,25p, +18) S5 (7/37,17p, -6) S6 (6/46,15p, +5, -3.6 BFSP)

TEST ZONE

  • Jumps angles: 3/30,10p, -14.8
  • Flat: (Fell) 3/26,8p, +9

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago w1 / w2)

  • Jumps: 12/39,16p, +22 (w1 : 9/22,9p, +21.5, w2 3/17,7p, +0.5)
  • Flat: 18/69,28p, +9 (w1 9/34,13p, +6.5, w2 9/35,15p, +2.5)
  • Total: 30/108,44p, +31

Handicap Debut (jumps+flat): 0/4,0p, -4

S3A# – S3A Double/Treble rated (jumps+flat): 9/44,14p, 0

 

LINKS

Updated: The Strategies, Where Should You Start? Read HERE>>>(please flick through if you haven’t done so)

Updated: ALL Jumps Strategies: Read HERE>>> ALL FlatStrategies: Read HERE>>>

 

Highlights… Totals…

Where To Start Strategies

Flat: S1 / S4 / S6

Combined results:

2017: 375 bets / 79 wins / +138.7 points (1 point win) (to widely available morning odds/BOG)

2018 to 15th July: 226 bets / 49 wins / 86 wins/places / +67.6 (early/bog) / +80 (*if backing S6 to BFSP)

S1 + S4

S6 is more volatile with a lower win SR but has been very profitable since inception. However, if you wanted to focus on those with a higher win SR, and thus shorter losing runs, combining S1 + S4 could be the way forward

2018 Results: 135 bets / 39 wins / 62 w|places / 29% win SR /  +48.6 (early/bog)

Plus…  Jumps S2A … 2018-

  • Win only (1 point win): 7/108,21p, +32, +57.5 (BFSP)
  • Each Way (1/2 point EW): 7/108,21p, +23.35
  • Each Way (1pt EW): 7/108,21p, +63.7 +46.7

 

Others Of Note

FLAT S2 pulled in +35 points from 4th June to 15th July, pulling that to…

  • Results: 2017: 220 bets / 40 wins / +35 points
  • Results 2018: up to 15th July: 128 bets / 30 wins / 53 p / +23.55

In Form Horses

Horse qualifies in section 1, and WON on it’s last start, denotes by a w1

Results: 2018 (since 12th Feb 2018- 15th July)

  • Flat: 15/68,24p, +9.8
  • Jumps: 23/83,29p, +24.75
  • Total: 151 bets / 38 wins / 53 w|places / +34.55 (early|bog)

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

26 Comments

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  • Flat Jockey Profits

    2 winners on the main FJP system at 10/1 & 13/2 for the filtered list of horses. If you followed my betting method of 2pts win only up to 10/1 and 1pt ew above that, you would have made a profit of 19pts.

    Interestingly, if you’d bet on the full list of horses you would only have made an additional 0.75pts profit. So at least for today the filtered strategy seems to have worked.

    Unfortunately, the less said about the Ryan Moore Strategy 2 the better. Not a single winner from 6 rides, 4 of which went off as favourites!

    Food for thought. Back later or in the morning with any qualifiers for Sunday

    Ken McKenzie 21/07/18 9:51 PM Reply


    • Ken,
      If you get time,can you please explain how the filters work.
      Cheers
      Andy

      Andy Ness 21/07/18 10:23 PM Reply


  • I will do tomorrow Andy. Been a busy day today.

    Ken McKenzie 21/07/18 11:20 PM Reply


    • OK, so here’s how I filtered each jockey’s stats for the Flat Jockey Profits system.

      Using the 3 years of data provided, I took each jockey in turn and checked which range of odds provided the best returns. So for example, the results for Adam Kirby before filtering were:
      357 Bets, 92 wins, Profit to SP 98.86pts, ROI 27.69%

      After checking, I found 9/4 to 20/1 gave the best results:
      259 Bets, 59 wins, Profit to SP 124.99pts, ROI 48.26%

      So for almost 100 less bets, there is an increase in profit of around 26pts and ROI jumps by about 21%.

      I know from my own experience with my AW tips that evening before prices provide much higher returns than SP, so I wondered how to extrapolate SP to evening before prices. Unless anyone knows better, I don’t think there is any data for this?

      So using my 9 months or so of AW stats (around 4500 horses), I looked at the SP range for each jockey and calculated the average evening before price. So in the example above 9/4 SP became 3/1 and 20/1 SP became 14/1. These are rounded values.

      I have no way of knowing how accurate this is but, to me, it seems a reasonable methodology to apply but I can see some folk may not agree with this. I’d be interested in hearing your thoughts. Maybe using the SP range is good enough to start with until I’ve built up some data of my own?

      Anyway, below I’ve given you the best odds range for each jockey at SP then, in brackets, the average evening before odds.
      1. Frankie Dettori – 3/1 to 16/1 (4/1 to 14/1)
      2. Ryan Moore – not enough data
      3. Adam Kirby – 9/4 to 20/1 (3/1 to 14/1)
      4. Silvestre De Sousa – 7/4 to 12/1 (5/2 to 11/1)
      5. Oisin Murphy – 6/1 to 33/1 (13/2 to 20/1)
      6. Jim Crowley – 4/1 to 25/1 (5/1 to 18/1)
      7. William Buick – 5/2 to 40/1 (3/1 to 28/1)
      8. Paul Hanagan – 5/4 to 16/1 (2/1 to 14/1)
      9. Daniel Tudhope – evs – 20/1 (5/2 to 14/1) – small sample
      10. James Doyle – 3/1 to 11/1 (4/1 to 10/1)

      Ken McKenzie 22/07/18 8:27 AM Reply


      • Morning Ken,
        Many thanks for the explanation,I’ve just glanced through it and getting my head around it.(Early morning).
        Can I ask,Are the figures for Adam Kirby based on win bets up to 10/1,E/W bets on prices above that?
        Cheers
        Andy

        Andy Ness 22/07/18 9:13 AM Reply


        • Ah sorry Andy, I should’ve explained that. I’ve used the win only stats in the report for comparison purposes. EW is quite difficult to compare as the no. of places paid can vary significantly from race to race. I would have to check back over every race to see how many places were offered.

          The 10/1 threshold is my own. I generally use this for most of my betting (but ironically not my own AW tips, as I have the stats to back up my strategy there) as it reduces the long losing streaks you can get with win only. I sometimes reduce this when there are more places on offer, as per yesterday. It’s just my way of doing things and you choose whatever you think is right for you. Once I’ve built up enough data I may change that threshold.

          Ken McKenzie 22/07/18 9:46 AM Reply


      • Hi Ken, well done on this. You can get odds history on horses via Oddschecker but the night before is something you have to cherry pick on as bookmakers will become aware of its overuse, so it may paint a rosy picture that may be not achievable long term.

        Apart from some jockeys riding certain courses better than others and that trainers who favour them have more runners at certain courses, why would they do better at that particular course other than randomness?

        martin colwell 22/07/18 9:27 AM Reply


        • Hi Martin,

          I’m not totally convinced about the evening before argument that bookies are watching more carefully. I’ve been betting seriously now for two years and the only accounts I’ve has restricted are with PP and BF and that was when I had a spell following Gary Priestley. I can see that following someone like him would flag up some warnings but overall I’m not sure it’s any different to placing bets in the morning.

          I know you can get historic odds on oddschecker for the day of the race and the day before but can you get historic odds going back 3 years?

          I guess statistics are all random on their own but they are useful for finding patterns and the longer the timespan the more consistent the patterns become.

          Josh uses a lot of statistics for his strategies and whilst he doesn’t necessarily bet on them blind, the stats show that if you do you should make a profit, so I don’t think these stats are much different really.

          Ken McKenzie 22/07/18 9:59 AM Reply


  • todays qualifiers.
    14:45 Stratford. G’day Aussie 16-1 b365
    16:45 Newton Abbot. Fear Glic 6-1 generally
    15:10 Redcar. Diamond Runner 12-1generally

    martin whittle 22/07/18 1:08 AM Reply


    • results update:
      67 selections 2 wins,14 places, staked 67 pts returns 40.25pts down 26.75 pts.

      martin whittle 22/07/18 5:34 PM Reply


  • Flat Jockey Profits (FJP) runners today:

    Ryan Moore S2 (Curragh)
    1.45 Fire Fly 13/8
    2.55 Battle of Jericho 5/1 (13/2 now available)
    3.30 Magical 5/4
    4.40 Cliffs of Dooneen 6/5 (now 11/10)

    Good Luck if you play.

    Ken McKenzie 22/07/18 9:04 AM Reply


    • Hi Ken, great stuff so far!! 🙂

      Given Moore’s performance yesterday and the insufficient data, do you think there’ll be a turn around today?

      Cheers,
      Nige C

      Nige C 22/07/18 10:10 AM Reply


    • Hi Ken,

      Thanks for all your efforts with the jockey qualifiers so far.

      With the Moore /O Brien / Curragh angle, it can be made more profitable for a reduced amount of bets by looking at horses over distances outside 7f-8.5f.
      Another angle is Colts only which again reduces bets but keeps profit high.
      When the 2 are combined it makes a decent system to follow to SP.
      A lot of the qualifiers are short enough in the betting but it is profitable to follow.

      Since 2015:
      COLTS : 38/93,60 / +28pts / 30%ROI
      Dist. 7f-8.5f: 36/87,59p / +33pts/ 38%ROI
      Combined: 27/61,41p / +34pts/ 56%ROI

      Joe H 22/07/18 10:44 AM Reply


      • Dist. *NOT 7f-8.5f

        Battle of Jericho & Cliffs of Dooneen are the 2 that qualify today

        Joe H 22/07/18 10:49 AM Reply


        • Cheers Joe, I’ll add that to my filters. I’ll do them all again today and see where go after that.

          Ken McKenzie 22/07/18 11:57 AM Reply


        • Joe,
          Does this apply to the Curragh only?
          Andy

          Andy Ness 22/07/18 1:11 PM Reply


  • U.S. Racing tips – Saratoga race 6, 8.49 UK, Wet Your Whistle, circa 6/1. Since the end of June +27.5 to win bets to odds available via Oddschecker.

    martin colwell 22/07/18 9:30 AM Reply


  • Well, what a sticky patch!! Going for my own gut feels today to see if the trusty stuff works lol

    16:45 NA Top Chief – like Tizzard, cheekpiece on, bit of point to point performance, diving in 1pt E/W.
    17:05 Stratford Bleu Et Or – like Brennan, fav should win but odds way too short and this one is carrying a stone less, moved to FOB yard, again diving in 1 PT E/W.

    Cheers and good luck to all trying to hit the dart board today
    Nige C

    Nige C 22/07/18 10:08 AM Reply


  • Off in the garden concreting, so here is my attempt at profit today.
    E/W Lucky 15.
    Shooting Rabbit 1.50 Hoover Fever 11/2
    4.45 Fear Glic 15/2
    5.20 Lincoln County 15/2
    Redcar 3.10 Majestic Stone 12/1.

    Greg Phillips 22/07/18 10:48 AM Reply


  • morning all

    zalim force 2.00 red 100s
    rolling revenge 2.05 tipp 14s
    theatre dreams 3.15 tipp 20s
    eastern lady / romeo is bleeding 4.45 n.a 16s / 50s
    molliana 4.10 n.a 66s
    closest friend 5.05 strat 9s

    good luck

    jarrodholmes68 22/07/18 11:05 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    No bet today

    Do not normally make comments about a jockeys riding but a very poor ride from George Downing on Sir Chauvelin absolutely cruising at the back and then he found a wall of horses with no way through so had to snatch up and go wide via the car park,no doubt he got a good telling off from Jim Goldie,would he have won doubtful but would definitely have been second,will George ride for Jim again doubtful.

    colin leafe 22/07/18 11:23 AM Reply


  • Handicap winners bets:-
    300 Tidal Watch
    335 Kilfinichen Bay
    345 Whinmoor
    600 Luvuwhatever

    chrisrees 22/07/18 12:19 PM Reply


    • W1/2; L; W6/4; L.

      chrisrees 22/07/18 8:19 PM Reply


  • Recent tips and subsequent runs from 20/6 to 22/7

    NOTES

    30 x runners
    4 wins, profit @bog 2.5, sp -1.5 sr 13%
    34 x 2nd runs
    5 wins, profit @bog -9.25, sp -15.5 sr 15%
    18 x 3rd runs
    1 win, profit @ bog -15.25, sp -15.25 sr 0.05%

    FESTIVAL

    21 x runners
    1 win, profit @ bog 30, sp 13 sr 0.05
    14 x 2nd runs
    4 wins, profit @bog -0.25, sp -1.55 sr 29%
    5 x 3rd runs
    0 wins

    3m+

    4 x runners
    0 wins
    4 x 2nd runs
    0 wins
    0 x 3rd run

    cumulative figures to follow
    Mike

    Titus 22/07/18 7:10 PM Reply


    • Figures from 3/10/17 to 22/7/18 inc. The sp will not be a true figure as I’ve only recorded it since 20/6/18 but as selections run again I’ll update the figs cos all winners are still in my tracker.

      NOTES

      283 x runners
      35 wins, profit @bog 73.5, sp 69.5 sr 12%
      256 x 2nd run
      23 wins, profit @ bog -17.5, sp -23.75 sr 9%
      163 x 3rd run
      16 wins, profit @ bog 47.25, sp 47.25 sr 10%
      …………………………………………………………..
      86 x 4th run
      11 wins, profit @ bog -30, sp -31.75 sr 13%
      16 x 5th run
      11 wins, profit @ bog 50.5, sp 50.5 sr 69%
      12 x 6th run
      5 wins, profit @ bog 48, sp 48 sr 42%
      5 x 7th run
      1 win, profit @ bog 16, sp 16 sr 20%
      4 x 8th run
      2 wins, profit @ bog 31.5, sp 31 sr 50%

      FESTIVAL

      95 x runners
      8 wins, profit @ bog 134, sp 117 sr 8%
      19 x 2nd run
      5 wins, profit @ bog 5.75, sp 4.45 sr 26%
      6 x 3rd run
      0 win, profit @ bog -6, sp -6 sr 0%
      ………………………………………….
      1 x 4th run
      1 win, profit @ bog 12, sp 9 sr 100%

      3m+

      131 x runners
      11 wins, profit @ bog 45, sp 45 sr 8%
      14 x 2nd run
      5 wins, profit @ bog 37, sp 37 sr 36%
      1 x 3rd run
      1 win, profit @ bog 6, sp 6 sr 100%
      ……………………………………………
      3 x 4th run
      0 win, profit @ bog -3, sp -3 sr 0%
      2 x 5th run
      0 win, profit @ bog -2, sp -2 sr 0%
      1 x 6th run
      0 win, profit @ bog -1, sp -1 sr 0%

      Titus 22/07/18 8:20 PM Reply


  • Figures from 3/10/17 to 22/7/18 inc. The sp is now a true figure. bog is from morning odds. I also missed a 3m+ 5th run which is added.

    NOTES

    283 x runners
    35 wins, profit @bog 73.5, sp -18.75 sr 12%
    256 x 2nd run
    23 wins, profit @ bog -17.5, sp -64.75 sr 9%
    163 x 3rd run
    16 wins, profit @ bog 47.25, sp 24.25 sr 10%
    …………………………………………………………..
    86 x 4th run
    11 wins, profit @ bog -30.0, sp -43.0 sr 13%
    16 x 5th run
    11 wins, profit @ bog 50.5, sp 42.5 sr 69%
    12 x 6th run
    5 wins, profit @ bog 48, sp 41.5 sr 42%
    5 x 7th run
    1 win, profit @ bog 16, sp 13 sr 20%
    4 x 8th run
    2 wins, profit @ bog 31.5, sp 26 sr 50%

    FESTIVAL

    95 x runners
    8 wins, profit @ bog 134, sp 79.5 sr 8%
    19 x 2nd run
    5 wins, profit @ bog 5.75, sp 3.45 sr 26%
    6 x 3rd run
    0 win, profit @ bog -6, sp -6 sr 0%
    ………………………………………….
    1 x 4th run
    1 win, profit @ bog 12, sp 9 sr 100%

    3m+

    131 x runners
    11 wins, profit @ bog 45, sp -3.0 sr 8%
    14 x 2nd run
    5 wins, profit @ bog 37, sp 28.75 sr 36%
    1 x 3rd run
    1 win, profit @ bog 6, sp 4 sr 100%
    ……………………………………………
    3 x 4th run
    0 win, profit @ bog -3, sp -3 sr 0%
    3 x 5th run
    1 win, profit @ bog 12, sp 9 sr 33%
    1 x 6th run
    0 win, profit @ bog -1, sp -1 sr 0%

    Titus 23/07/18 7:42 PM Reply


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