Free Daily Post: 21/07/18 (complete)

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(Free tips 2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018, 9/89,28p, +64.5, Members Festival Tips: +140)

Market Rasen

3.15 Summer Plate

Bagad Bihoue – 1 point win – 15/2 (sky/lad/betfS/PP) 7/1 (gen) UP, poor, travelled well enough in right spot for a time, but just not good enough come the business end.

Brian Boranha – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen)* travelled well enough near the back, made a crunching error, never really in it.

Close to More Bucks but not close enough in truth, great ride by Sean and clear why he wanted to be on him and neither of Nicholl’s. Used his extra stamina by having him up there, I thought he may get outpaced at some point but that didn’t happen. Decent performance for the red hot Bowen. A poor day at Market Rasen. 

 

Bagad Bihoue... this race has a fairly open feel about it with plenty arriving in form, both young/unexposed types and the older brigade. It looks sure to be a decent enough chase for the time of year. I have decided to focus on the younger ones who look open to further progress and if one of the older/more exposed ones beats me, then so be it. This horse arrives at the top of his game having got it all together in a handicap chase LTO. That was after quite a time off and the hope is that he may step forward again. Whether he’s up to this challenge we shall see but he jumped well enough and races prominently which is always a positive for me in a chase. He beat Alcala and Viconte Du Noyer fair and square the last day to my eyes and IF he ran his race here today, i was struggling to work out why either should overturn that form. The jockey bookings are intriguing as Sam jumps off him and back onto Alcala. Maybe that is a sign that they fancy him more, or Sam just wanted to ride the horse that won him the race last year- he knows he is proven in conditions and that probably swung it for him. So, I could have that wrong, but on the basis of that last run, and the fact I think there could be more to come from the selection, I was happy to go with him. It also looks as though Nicholls has allowed Sean to ride for his dad, which is another intriguing element here, but I won’t over-think this jockey merry-go-round. If Cobden was fit he’d have probably ridden Alcala LTO and Sam would still be on BB, maybe. Schofield knows the horse having ridden him in his bumper and a G2 hurdle, and he is a fine rider, so I won’t be looking for excuses there, and given Sean hasn’t ridden him in a race before, it could be that simple. It could be that he just goes best under Sam, but time will tell. Of the unexposed brigade I liked him most and with any luck Nicholls can win this for the second year in a row, and hopefully with this one!

Brian Boranha... He was the most interesting of those at a double figure price to my eye. He is unexposed and looks to have got his act together over fences the last twice, possibly coming into his own now as a 7 year old. The horse he beat LTO came out won fairly well at Aintree next time in a decent enough C3 handicap chase. So, there is some substance there. That was his first run since September and he should have come on for it, and it looks like he may be best fresh. His trainer can clearly ready them. I suspect if Hughes wasn’t now retained by McCain, (up at Cartmel with plenty of rides today) that he’d have ridden him but he has booked Coleman here which looks significant. Coleman rides this chase track very well and is 6/23,9p, +19 over CD in the last 5 years. He travelled very well the last day and can hopefully settle off what should be a decent pace. Of course the experience- being surrounded by hardy handicappers-  may prove too much for him, but in that scenario you want a price, and I get that here. I thought he should have been a few points shorter and if he holds it all together, should run a big race.

Of the rest…well you can make a case for plenty. I won’t fall off my seat if Alcala takes this. Calett Mad has a touch of class but he hasn’t been chasing for a while, and I thought 2m5f on good ground around here may be sharp enough for him. If he jumps well and I have that wrong, he is a danger to all. But, his price didn’t look overly generous given the niggles. Neither did Too Many Diamonds given he has to take a big jump forward here and I wondered if he would be good enough. He does arrive in form, and Skelton may still have kept plenty up his sleeve, somehow. But I was happy to leave him. More Bucks arrives in form in a race that fell apart somewhat, but got a hefty enough rise LTO and again he looks better over further, but is clearly in good health and a LTO chase winner following up is never a total surprise. I may not have mentioned the winner but won’t rattle through them all. I was generally happy to leave the rest of them, even though a few are in form. Wadswick Court is a rogue but came 2nd in this last year, however he is 10lb higher and doesn’t always put it in at the finish. This race does have a competitive feel – one of those where if you don’t land on the winner you will look back post race and be able to make a case for most of them. With any luck the selections can both run with credit and be in contention jumping the last.

Best of luck if you follow me in, or with whatever you go with. And whatever you do, don’t be put off a horse by anything I may have said, it’s that sort of race, plenty with chances. One of those you should arguably just watch but I can rarely do that in this race.

Josh

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • GOLF BETS
    Not an account bet
    Had a fun bet on Thorbjorn Olesen at 50/1 with Boylesports there are 60/1 available with some bookmakers but unable to back with them.
    I am a great fan of Olesen along with Fitzpatrick and with him being 14th after 2 days and only 4 shots off the leader worth a small fun bet.

    colin leafe 20/07/18 9:18 PM Reply


    • My 66/1 ante post on Tommy Fleetwood is looking good. I have laid off at 6/1. I have been on the exchanges and backed Francesco Molinari at 98 and Zander Lombard at 170 for a further interest.
      I know someone who had £5,000 on Tiger at 25/1. He has plotted around the course but the bigger hitters are going to outscore him. Silly bet but i did tell him.

      martin colwell 20/07/18 9:35 PM Reply


      • Come on Tiger!

        Peter T 21/07/18 4:22 PM Reply


        • He is certainly in there with a chance albeit slim

          Mark 21/07/18 6:09 PM Reply


  • ITV7
    all above 13-2 ew
    Newbury.
    1-50 Autocratic 9-2
    2-25 Sir Chauvalin 14-1,Almoghared 7-1
    3-00 Yafta 10-1, Hey Jonesy 9-1
    3-35 Society Queen 18-1, Good Tyne Girl 25-1
    Market Rasen.
    2-05 Mystic Sky 20-1, Ocean Jive 14-1
    3-15 More Bucks 9-1, Calett Mad 7-1
    Newmarket.
    2-45 Ejtyah 6-1

    martin whittle 21/07/18 1:25 AM Reply


  • Had a decent bet on CARBON DATING in the 4.05 Ripon

    Won a £65k handicap off 102 last year, down to 98 here, prep run over inadequate 8.5 furlongs showed him to be in fine fettle and with guaranteed pace on he’s worth a substantial bet at 16/1+

    I got 25/1 B365 last night. Massive price

    rick 21/07/18 8:57 AM Reply


  • Blank again yesterday

    Nb 3.00 – Hey Jonesy @ 9
    5.20 – Medahim @ 11/4
    Nm 5.10 – Rogue @ 11/4
    R 4.05 – Reshoun @ 7
    5.50 – Stewardess @ 14
    Zizum @ 66 poss e/w
    L 5.45 – Lady Valdean @ 13/2

    Titus 21/07/18 9:46 AM Reply


  • Weakest event selections:-
    300 Equilateral
    325 Zain Hana
    400 Vintager
    405 Appointed
    500 Big Tour
    525 Undefined Beauty
    715 Ashpan Sam
    730 Save The Bees
    830 Boundary Lane
    845 Passing Star

    chrisrees 21/07/18 12:14 PM Reply


    • Results: L; 2nd 7/2; W2/1; 2nd 9/1;NR; L; W6/1; W10/1; L; L;

      chrisrees 21/07/18 9:02 PM Reply


  • Haven’t been able to get to Newbury. Quite like Kinks, Woodside Wonder and Society Queen for the supersprint.
    Hugh

    alpha2 21/07/18 2:59 PM Reply


  • Josh

    After applying a few run of the mill trends i ended up with the same 2 selections as yourself plus More Bucks but i didn’t want to be backing three in the race and wanted to get it down to two.

    I then remembered our old friend Chris Baxendale analysed this race 12 months ago so i had a look back on last year’s post.
    Sitting right at the top was quite an obscure stat that showed in the past 18 years all past winners were rested no longer than 60 days between their LR and 2LR. Applying that stat effectively ruled out Bagad Bihoue and Brian Boranha.

    Personally when researching trends in the future i will be keeping this one on side.

    Regards
    Eric

    Eric 21/07/18 4:19 PM Reply


    • Hi Eric,
      Well done for finding him. My own interpretation of the stats for this race didn’t highlight much of note albeit that is a stat I have never really considered but it makes plenty of logical sense, i’ll have to add it to the list in my stats research. MB was on my own shortlist but wasn’t close enough to backing him sadly! I poor day so far, but glad you found him.
      Josh

      Josh 21/07/18 4:25 PM Reply


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