Members Daily Post: 20/07/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Nottingham

5.00 – Thundercloud (all hncps + micro class) H3 10/1 WON 10/1>13/2 

 

Haydock

3.45 – Alsvinder (m TJC) w2 w1 H1 I1 G3 2/1 S1 S2 S4 UP

 

Newmarket (July)

8.45 – Seyasah (all hncps/3yo+) 16/1

 

Hamilton

update to 7.20, I hadn’t added GG ratings…

5.45 – Ladies First (all hncps) H3 I3 G3 7/4 S4 S5  UP

6.50 – Mont Kiara (all hncps + m class) I3 13/2

7.20 –

Naadirr (all hncps/3yo+) I3 G3 14/1

Hoof It (all hncps) 16/1

Flying Pursuit (3yo+) I3 14/1

Classic Seniority (m dist/ dist move) 8/1

Poyle Vinnie (m age) H1 I3 G1 13/2 S1 S2 S4 S6

Dark Defender (m runs) 28/1

8.25 – Thorntoun Care (all hncps) H3 I3  6/1 

8.55 – Scrutiny (all hncps/3yo+) H3 I3 5/1 

 

Newbury

None.

Pontefract 

None.

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 15/173,60p, -8.7) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +144)

 

Daily Tips

5.00 Notts – Eponina– 1 point win – 9/2 (gen) UP 11/4, poor… never settled at all, rushed up to try and get lead, that seemed to spark her up, sat in 2nd and in decent spot, but faded tamely there. Didn’t run her race, so a line through that. I think it was still riding fast so won’t blame that, although a few umbrella’s around which didn’t expect,but no excuse. Typically beaten by a 10/1>13/2 stats pick above who I read wrong. Plenty to improve on…that one was dropping in class, into an all-age hncp for first time (with allowances), course form,headgear switch, jockey change, and form of recent races had worked out well esp horses she split two starts back. 40 days (wrongly, thought odd rest pattern) and Jockey stats at track..0/18,0p 2 years, 1/45,3p 5 yrs, swung me in the end. Wrong. ahh. Moving on.

 

Festival Tips

7.20 Hamilton

Flying Pursuit – 1 point win– 14/1 (gen) UP

Mobsta – 1 point win– 12/1 (gen) UP

Sadly over before it began given the ground remained Good to Firm, always the risk, appears winner broke track record here, which says it all. 

5.00 Notts…

Well if this one doesn’t go well maybe I will finally promise never to put up anything under 6/1 ever again! I can’t work out why this one isn’t a much closer price to the fav here, and on the strength of their form a case could be made that they should be switched, or at least the same price. On her second run for the yard and first over 8f she made all at Leicester when last seen, staying on well and responding to pressure. She did that comfortably enough that day and there should be more to come over this distance. The horse that was staying on there into second has since come out and won a C5. Ignoring the run over 6f here two starts back, the sales race she ran in at Redcar has worked out well. She lost out to Acrux there who’s since won three times, the latter in a C5 off a mark of 70. The main ‘way in’ i suppose was a look at the pace, as i’m sure Ali Rawlinson will be able to repeat his Leicester and John Smith Cup exploits on the front end here. Foxy Rebel can be up there but when he lead two starts back it was a dawdle, and hopefully he doesn’t have the pace over this trip to cause problems. I expect Ali to get the lead, stack them up, and kick. In any case he should be in the perfect spot here, no excuses for me. I thought she looked very solid. Trainer/jockey are 2/7,3p in the last 14 days, 3/12,5p last 30, and Ali is riding at the top of his game.

She comes up against a seemingly rejuvenated T Easterby filly who responded well to 1st time blinkers LTO. There is no guarantee she will do so this time but escapes a penalty given it was an apprentice race. However, I have watched that back. Firstly it was a shocker of a race and secondly it set up for her. The first two went far too hard, they were strung out all over Scotland, and most appeared to fall in a hole. She picked up the pieces but visually it looked impressive. But, I don’t think Eponina will be stopping and she does have to prove her stamina. It could be that she overhauls the selection late on, so I suppose there is a fun forecast option, (8/1) for the reckless amongst us. There is quite a weight difference when accounting for the jockey claim and maybe that will be key, but it’s a difference for a reason. Thundercloud is a stats qual above but I don’t like the 40 day break. But she does step into an all age handicap and down in class, but I wasn’t sure this would be run to suit. The CP return but they didn’t do much when first tried. Rebel State is a danger but again he is a hold up horse. If it drops right he may not be far away. In any case, i’ve gone for what looks to be an improving LTO winner, that has depth to her recent form and looks sure to lead. 9/2 felt a shade too big to my eyes.

Notts appears to be the only track where we can have 100% confidence that the going will stay consistent, as they are not forecast any rain, whereas everything else looks a tad unsettled, esp Newbury/Haydock/Pontefract/Hamilton.

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Festival Tips

7.20 Hamilton

Flying Pursuit – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen)

Mobsta – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen)

 

Flying Pursuit... I have latched my eyes onto the 4 on the shortlist below, and indeed the two at the biggest price. I can make a case at the odds and in fact having looked through the race don’t like much else at the prices anyway. It will be 2 points down the drain if this going is still Good To Firm come the off time. However if it was Good-Soft at the time of posting, these two would probably be around 8/1 anyway. I won’t be looking for excuses if the ground is ‘good’, I just want the sting taken out of it, and I hope the forecast drizzle keeps falling through to mid afternoon. While it is a case of the softer the better, this one has won on good and at the back end of last season had some cracking C2 sprint handicap form. A repeat of that Ripon/York/Donny run would put him firmly in the mix here, no doubt about that. The last of those runs in Oct 17 was off 101, he then went to 103 but is now down to 96. RR jumps back on for the first time in 2 runs, and takes of a further 3lb. Every little helps in these races. The horse has run on a road for his last three runs and he just does not like good to firm, and as such his run 4 days ago could be marked up, staying on at the end there in a small field. In this race last year he never really went a yard but was on the wrong side. The front 2 races up the middle that day and it appeared the near side was riding much slower. But, at least he has experience of the track. Maybe he doesn’t like it here but 14s allows me to take a chance. He should be up in the van and actually has a fair bit of pace to track, which he can hopefully sweep past as they all fall in a hole.With any luck Easterby can add to his tally in this race and join Fahey as a multiple winner in recent years. He looked interesting enough to me at the prices.

Mobsta...another that won’t want it fast here, but I don’t wish to label him as a soft ground horse. I’m not sure it is a case of the softer the better- well, he’s hardly run on GS/Good in handicaps, and actually there is a 5f run on Good back in the day where he ran with credit, put down on it, and stayed on. The trip beat him that day, not the ground. In this scenario you want a price, and in the context of this race, I get it.  Channon has pulled this one out a few times recently due to fast ground and I assume would do so again if deemed too fast. The horse has won on seasonal reappearance before so fitness shouldn’t be a problem. Channon has run 8 horses here in the last 5 years, 3 have won. IF he wasn’t spot on, why the hell would you travel 367 miles just to get a run into a horse? Logically I have to assume he is here to run his race after the 83 days off. The jockey booking is odd in that he’s never ridden the horse nor for Channon before. That is a slight negative but it is a busy day of racing with plenty of ‘nice types’ running down south, and I suspect none of his usual team were available. However, he has gone for a jockey who rides the track well, and there could be something in that. This one does need a pace to aim at, but he gets it here, and I am intrigued to see him at this stiff 6f – he runs as if he could relish this climb to the line. He arrives in form, and was a high class animal in years gone by – a group performer. He can win from this mark and with any luck will out-run his odds. We do need the rain to keep falling though, I don’t want firm anywhere near that description.

Of the rest…well they all seem around the right price, esp the top 5 in the market. I think I tipped Classic Seniority to win this last year at 16/1, but he’s 7s today. He has a chance, possibly saver material, but this ground will race quicker than last year and he will need plenty of luck if held up in the usual way. However, this has clearly been the plan and his mark is below last year, although this feels like a stronger renewal, esp if there isn’t a track bias which did help him last year after the rain. He felt around the right price now but I won’t be shocked if he takes this again. I didn’t really want to be with much else. I suppose Sharp Defence is the interesting biggie, with a ‘could be anything’ sort of profile, and an interesting jockey booking. And of course if my two don’t win I hope Poyle Vinnie does for the strategies, but with my ‘tipping eyes’ his price felt about right, and he keeps placing without winning. But, he could go close for sure. I may not have mentioned the winner. Cue Ower Fly bolting up.

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re-cap…my word a winner for the Daily tips, a rare thing indeed, they’d nearly gone extinct. Pleased enough with all three really. The Dixon horse drifted somewhat but got out and in the perfect spot, hitting the front a few furlongs and I thought he would kick on, however he faded tamely. The main danger horse won (no saver on here) so happy with how I read it. The Duffield horse ran well enough at Hamilton, beaten by the two money horses. I see Colin tipped the winner, well done. I looked at her for a while and on reflection should have put more weight on the booking of Joe Fanning, especially given that he’d ridden plenty of Duffield horses recently,inc one earlier on the card. It was significant that he wasn’t riding my poke, who will win again at Hamilton over CD on that evidence. That horse had come down 21lb in 5 runs or so, and was having her second run for the yard. She had GF to prove, but had never raced on it, and it turns out she’s wanted fast all along! 7s ins 11/4 it was a superb gamble, that was there to spot. The money poured on and the trainer used his other as pace maker, to set it up, which was clever given she stays further. Next time! 🙂 +6 on the day but i need to build on that and move into positive territory. The ability is there, thankfully I don’t need gelding just yet! 

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Recent Tips

(need to trawl through and update all the losers/results)

8.45 Newm – Himself (i think tipped 3 starts back at Notts)

8.15 Newm – Poets Vanity (2nd run)

9.10 Ponte – Cosmic Chatter (1st run)

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

Top of the Class

2.00 Newb – Sheriffmur (any odds) 9/4 3rd 

6.30 Ponte – Metallic Black (16/1< guide) 10/1 WON 10/1>9/2 

6.40 Newm – Illusional (any) 9/2 UP

Jumps

Irish Angles

8.00 Kilb – Hickeys Rock 50/1

8.30 Kilb- Full Cry 14/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Important Results Update

I have brought all the results up to date including the links in the Key above. The below is the summary since 4th June…

Results Update  

(4thJune-15 thJuly) 

Summary below, links in Key for Jumps + Flat Strategies have been updated

Summary

TOTAL (strategies) (Section 1): (from 4th June to 15th July)

  • JUMPS – S1 (/) S2 (1/51,5p, -36, -45 BFSP) S2A (subset of S2… 0/16,0p, -16) S3 (2/12,4p, +8) S3A (6/25,7p, +9) S3A# (4/19,5p, +1) S4 (/) S5 (2/22,2p, -1.5, +4.3 BFSP)
  • FLAT 2018: S1 (7/25,10p, +6) S2 (21/66,31p, +35) S3A (9/63,19p, -14) S3A# (5/25,9p, -1)  S4 (14/48,25p, +18) S5 (7/37,17p, -6) S6 (6/46,15p, +5, -3.6 BFSP)

TEST ZONE

  • Jumps angles: 3/30,10p, -14.8
  • Flat: (Fell) 3/26,8p, +9

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago w1 / w2)

  • Jumps: 12/39,16p, +22 (w1 : 9/22,9p, +21.5, w2 3/17,7p, +0.5)
  • Flat: 18/69,28p, +9 (w1 9/34,13p, +6.5, w2 9/35,15p, +2.5)
  • Total: 30/108,44p, +31

Handicap Debut (jumps+flat): 0/4,0p, -4

S3A# – S3A Double/Treble rated (jumps+flat): 9/44,14p, 0

 

LINKS

Updated: The Strategies, Where Should You Start? Read HERE>>>(please flick through if you haven’t done so)

Updated: ALL Jumps Strategies: Read HERE>>> ALL FlatStrategies: Read HERE>>>

 

Highlights… Totals…

Where To Start Strategies

Flat: S1 / S4 / S6

Combined results:

2017: 375 bets / 79 wins / +138.7 points (1 point win) (to widely available morning odds/BOG)

2018 to 15th July: 226 bets / 49 wins / 86 wins/places / +67.6 (early/bog) / +80 (*if backing S6 to BFSP)

S1 + S4

S6 is more volatile with a lower win SR but has been very profitable since inception. However, if you wanted to focus on those with a higher win SR, and thus shorter losing runs, combining S1 + S4 could be the way forward

2018 Results: 135 bets / 39 wins / 62 w|places / 29% win SR /  +48.6 (early/bog)

Plus…  Jumps S2A … 2018-

  • Win only (1 point win): 7/108,21p, +32, +57.5 (BFSP)
  • Each Way (1/2 point EW): 7/108,21p, +23.35
  • Each Way (1pt EW): 7/108,21p, +63.7 +46.7

 

Others Of Note

FLAT S2 pulled in +35 points from 4th June to 15th July, pulling that to…

  • Results: 2017: 220 bets / 40 wins / +35 points
  • Results 2018: up to 15th July: 128 bets / 30 wins / 53 p / +23.55

In Form Horses

Horse qualifies in section 1, and WON on it’s last start, denotes by a w1

Results: 2018 (since 12th Feb 2018- 15th July)

  • Flat: 15/68,24p, +9.8
  • Jumps: 23/83,29p, +24.75
  • Total: 151 bets / 38 wins / 53 w|places / +34.55 (early|bog)

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Scottish Stewards Cup 

10/143,31p

10/10 aged 6 or younger

  • 7+: 0/36, 6p

10/10 had 7+ runs over distance

  • 0-6 runs over distance: 0/29, 4p

8/10 Top 5 LTO

  • 1x UR LTO, so 9/10 Top 5 or did not finish
  • 1/70,8p not Top 5/did not finish

8/10 had been ridden by jockey 2+ times previously (8/75,18p)

  • 0-1: 2/68,13p

8/10 had won at least once under today’s jockey (8/67,16p)

  • 0 wins: 2/76,15p

Other

  • OR 2lb lower or more from last run: 0/25,1p
  • 1+ course wins: 4/28, 7p, +14
  • 0 wins over distance: 0/18,2p
  • Track LTO: Newcastle (3/36,9p) Ascot (0/14,1p)

Trainers

  • Fahey (3/21,6p), 1 x win (Fife/Ryan/t Easterby/M Appleby/M Johnston)

Shortlist

Looking at those aged 6 or younger, with 7+ distance runs, leaves 6: Ower Fly / George Bowen / Mobsta / Flying Pursuit / Classic Seniority / Dark Defender

The four that were top 5 LTO: Ower Fly / Mobsta / Flying Pursuit / Classic Seniority

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Festival Tips

7.20 Hamilton

Flying Pursuit – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen)

Mobsta – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen)

write up above in section 2

 

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SATURDAY’S PLANS…

My main tipping focus will be at Market Rasen. The chase will def be in the free post, and possibly the hurdle too but tbc.

I will focus on CARTMEL..for any ‘through the card’ efforts given two of you are off there, although no geegeez speed ratings to help. I probably have time for one more set of ‘through the card starting points’, using my new template, as they take 20-30 mins to do…so if any of you are off racing and would find that useful, shout early and i’ll endeavour to get something up in good time today.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

31 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Imperial Choice Newmarket Friday 19:10 1pt e/w-Price available 28/1
    Fieldsman Newmarket Friday 20:45 1pt e/w-Price available 12/1

    Nick Mazur 19/07/18 9:02 PM Reply


  • Flat Jockey Profits

    No joy again today with only two short priced places if you played EW. Qualifiers for Friday as follows:

    Frankie Dettori (Newbury) (W)
    3.35 Natalie’s Joy 5/4

    Oisin Murphy (Newbury) (All EW)
    2.30 Sabai Sabai 6/1
    3.05 Mistress Quickly 7/1

    Jim Crowley (Newbury) (W or EW)
    2.00 Salam Zayed 20/1
    2.30 Kawkabba 11/1

    James Doyle (Newmarket July) (W or EW)
    7.10 Ummalnar 5/1
    8.45 Himself 5/2

    The W or EW is based on the recommendations in the FJP Report

    Day off work tomorrow when I intend to do a bit of analysis to (hopefully) narrow down the bets.

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 19/07/18 9:18 PM Reply


  • Konigin 3.25 Nottingham 40s
    Secretinthepark 3.45 Hay 50s
    Wojoob 2.00 Newb 14s
    Naddirr 7.20 Ham 14s
    Red tea 8.05 Pont 14s

    Good luck.

    jarrodholmes68 19/07/18 11:47 PM Reply


    • Red tea a non runner so I’ll put up…
      Kawkabba 2.30 Newb 14s

      Good luck

      jarrodholmes68 20/07/18 9:58 AM Reply


  • todays qualifier.
    15:05 Newbury. Mistress Quickly 7-1 bv

    martin whittle 20/07/18 1:00 AM Reply


  • @Josh, would Alsvinder be a w1/w2 as well?

    Paul Ebrey 20/07/18 8:38 AM Reply


    • Yes it would Paul
      Mike

      Titus 20/07/18 9:12 AM Reply


    • Yep, he does appear to have won his last two, just missed adding those symbols. Too short anyway, surely! 🙂 (prob bolt up by 5 now)

      Josh 20/07/18 11:01 AM Reply


  • Chris M Selections:
    Hamilton
    20:25 – Thorntoun Care (6/1 gen)
    20:55 – Scrutiny (6/1 gen)

    Haydock
    16:20 – Cale Lane (15/2 gen)

    Newbury
    14:30 – Angel Mead (9/1 gen)
    15:35 – Chuck Willis (11/1 gen)

    Chris M 20/07/18 9:20 AM Reply


    • Finally some redemption for me missing a 20/1 winner last week from my eyecatchers list. Angle Mead finished strongly in the 14:30 at Newbury to win at 20/1, advised at 9/1. Hopefully this is the turning point for my lull recently!

      Chris M 20/07/18 3:12 PM Reply


  • Robot Boy—Pontefract 7.35 14/1

    Lowest mark for 4 years which of course means its not won for 17runs or so.
    Sire has a healthy strike rate of 23/46 here. Last run was last of 5 but it was a stakes race and was disadvantaged at the weights. Before that its last run on turf came 2nd beaten a length. Ran off a mark of 90 goes off 88. Trainer doing well 5 wins from last 20. 4 of those wins with this jockey. Trainer does ok here as well having 4 winners from last 19 outings at the track. In head to heads Robot Boy has beaten three of the field that’s Watchable, Move in Time and Powerallied. Robot boy is much better off at the weights than on those occasions. However those runs were more than a year ago.
    Well im hoping that robot can discover some of its old form and there are a few pointers that suggest this might be the day. Namely sire track record, jockey and trainer form.
    Good luck if you follow.

    Steve Clowes 20/07/18 9:44 AM Reply


    • Good luck Steve, hes on my shortlist too

      Paul Ebrey 20/07/18 9:52 AM Reply


  • 1pt win DANDY HIGHWAYMAN 910 Pontefract
    A race of loveable old rogues but I think this lad looks over-priced at around 9-1

    stable had a welcome winner with Mr C the other day and the selection is running off 74 today, his wins have been off 76 and 80. Last time he finished 9th of 10 at Nottingham where it was reported he lost a shoe, time before he was 4th at York off 76 to Paddy Power beaten 3 3/4l. A winner on good to firm and good ground, any rain shouldn’t be an issue but the golden angle is class. In class 5s he is 2 wins and a 2nd from 3 runs, his last in a class 5 a 1.25l beating of our old friend Suitcase N Taxi off 76 at Ripon over 6 furlongs, good to firm.

    Paul Ebrey 20/07/18 9:56 AM Reply


    • Cheers Paul,

      Funnily enough i had a good look at Highwayman. It came up on my sire stats. Will put it in an e/w double now you’ve explained the poor run at Notts.

      Steven Clowes 20/07/18 10:07 AM Reply


    • Last! oh dear, leave the tipping to the good ones.

      Paul Ebrey 21/07/18 11:24 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Newbury
    4.10 Lucky Deal
    Haydock
    3.15 John Kirkup
    3.45 Alsvinder
    Hamilton
    7.20 Poyle Vinnie
    8.25 Granite City Doc

    colin leafe 20/07/18 10:02 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, some more recent tips

    N 8.15 – Poets Vanity on it’s 2nd run
    P 9.10 – Cosmic Chatter on it’s 1st

    I’ll be updating all the recent figures Sun/Mon but no time at present if you don’t want to trawl through Josh. Was going to sort them after WCup but family stuff taken priority.

    There are some recent Fest and 3m+ running today,
    Fest
    H 6.50 – King Robert 1st run
    P 7.35 – Move in Time 1st run
    K 8.00 – Barra 1st run
    3m+
    K 8.30 – Thunder and Roses 1st run
    Rogue Angel 1st run
    Mike

    Titus 20/07/18 10:31 AM Reply


    • cheers Mike, appreciated as always. Missed those two. Need to go back through and add some recent tips into tracker. If you were going through results anyway, then i’ll leave it to you haha. I got sidetracked when I was away etc, in keeping tabs..and I think there were a few I didn’t post that weekend as you’d covered in comments. So, i’ll await your update 🙂 don’t think makes for good reading recently but is still a valid ‘way in’

      Josh 20/07/18 11:13 AM Reply


  • Cheers for the Cartmel heads up Josh, Nick I’ll buy you a pint if you find me, I’ll be no more than 20 yards from the Unsworth Brewery stand, I’ll wear my Taylormade cap !

    geoffwylde 20/07/18 11:08 AM Reply


  • Its a brave man who puts anything up by pastoral Pursuits on Turf this year.
    197-5-36 below 3% strike rate.
    I for one will be cheering on Mobsta for you Josh.
    And the very best of luck with Flying Pursuit.

    Steve Clowes 20/07/18 11:25 AM Reply


    • Hi Steve,
      is that in relation to Flying Pursuit I assume…Surely that is where sire stats, and ones like that, are just a load of nonsense in my view… I get it with unexposed horses/maidens/novices obviously, but we are dealing with a horse that is 6/34 in his career and has a clear profile for us all to inspect, inc wins from June onwards. How his sire has done this calendar year has no relation to him at all, does it? How is that relevant/important? Is it a case that his offspring are best on good or worse ground? And given it’s been a road for a while, does that have an impact?
      I don’t pay much attention to sires, so always willing to learn on the breeding front, but that example just seems to be irrelevant to me! 🙂
      Josh

      Josh 20/07/18 11:47 AM Reply


      • I don’t have a theory as to why. But until they start to pick up again I wont be backing them. Its just one of those extraordinary stats. If i do figure it out I will post on here for sure. Obviously it would be related to how a sires progeny perform with the age of the sire and or progeny. I do have someway out there theories though but i have found it helpful to think outside the box. Awful phrase. Anyhow the best of luck.

        Steven Clowes 20/07/18 12:04 PM Reply


        • hmm, well we will agree to disagree on that one then haha. Thinking outside the box is always good, but in that example I just don’t see any correlation between that stats and this horse, given his profile. If he loses today, it won’t be because a load of his sires progeny have had a bad 2018 to date. That makes no sense. And having looked at his overall stats for horses on the flat, there is little difference between those aged 4, through to 5 and then 6, the place % stats exactly the same, and he’s produced winners at good rates across all the going descriptions.
          Surely old PP could have just had a really poor book of mares etc a couple of years back? or something like that. Maybe there is something there, but i’m quite happy to ignore such stats with more exposed handicappers that have a form profile against race conditions etc.
          Anyway, hopefully we can all cheer Mobsta home!

          I have just looked closer and yep, his 2018 record is awful so far compared to year’s gone by. Maybe he’s a second half of season fire more generally, or something has happened in the breeding world to diminish his stock. But, I’ll stick by my points in relation to Flying P, I can make any logical sense of why those stats would correlate to him, in this race, this year.

          Josh 20/07/18 12:09 PM Reply


          • Well its not a seasonal Thing 9/27/11/30/10/29 for spring/summer/autumn. Overall from 2009-2018.
            These are overall results and Im not referring to going track etc.
            Sample size is big enough for 2018.
            Maybe the quality of the sires pastoral pursuits progeny have been competing in has improved. Of Course this would have to continue for it to be significant.
            Maybe indeed its to do with Dams.
            Well i will to continue to monitor its performance and as i say best of luck.

            Steven Clowes 20/07/18 12:40 PM Reply


            • yep, intriguing for sure. In any case, it would appear they haven’t had much rain, and the forecast has moved on, would still seem enough firm in going, so in all likelihood those stats wont be improved on today! Not sure my rain dance will cut it now! Both of those will need plenty of luck now, if taking their chance.

              Josh 20/07/18 12:42 PM Reply


              • Hi Josh,
                Just checking something.

                Ok there have been 149 runs by pastoral progeny in 2018 turf where there has been at least 8 runners.
                Reported Going
                Firm 5-0-1
                Good To Firm 70-1-8
                Good 36-0-5
                Good to soft 18-0-3
                Soft 18-2-8
                Heavy 2-0-1

                Thats the reported going. You have pointed out that can be dubious. i dont live in the Uk currently but i understand you’ve had good weather probably less rain. Maybe some courses haven’t watered as much as normal/water authorities etc. But as you can see lots more runs on Good to Firm going than usual. So Im thinking this a big factor.

                Sorry for boring everybody. If anyone has a list or sires that prefer softer going. Perhaps there are others with a similar profile to PPs drop off.

                Thanks

                Steven Clowes 20/07/18 1:39 PM Reply


  • Handicap winners selections:-
    315 Lethal Lunch
    345 Jabbarockie
    500 Eponina
    535 Double Reflection
    735 Move In Time
    815 Dizzy G

    chrisrees 20/07/18 11:52 AM Reply


  • Hi josh , I think I owe you some more money , like to pay a year up front , could you forward your bank details please to briandunn25@yahoo.co.uk

    brian dunn 20/07/18 12:16 PM Reply


  • My Jumps guru (12 winning months in a row on the olbg blog competition)
    reckons Ocean Jive is a very good bet in tomorrows 2.05 MR event so ive had some on at 16/1 e/w.

    steven clowes 20/07/18 4:18 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Both Ken and I are going to Musselburgh on Tuesday could find your magic pin for us Thanks as always.

    Mike

    mickeydee 20/07/18 7:54 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike, remind me on Monday! 🙂 Am sure it wont be a problem, at least the ‘info’ template anyway,
      Josh

      Josh 20/07/18 7:56 PM Reply


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