Members Daily Post: 18/07/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Lingfield

5.10 – Brexitmeansbrexit (all hncps, 3yo+) (only 2 runners…) H3 I3 G1 9/4 S2 S4 

 

Catterick

3.00 – Monaco Rose (all hncps) I3 G3 5/1 UP

3.30 – 

Requinto Dawn (all hncps) H1 I3 4/1 S2 2nd 

Suitcase N Taxi (micro TJC + class) w1 H3 I3 9/2 UP

Mont Kiara (all hncps) I1 11/1 S6 3rd 12/1 

4.30 – 

Foxtrot Knight (m TJC) H3 15/2 UP

Kinloch Pride (m dist) I3 10/1 UP

5.00 – Wotabreeze (m class) H3 I3 G3 2/1 S4 S5 

 

Yarmouth 

5.35 – Roland Rocks (3yo+, + m age) I3 15/2 

 

JUMPS

Uttoxeter

1.50 – Magical Thomas (hncp hurdle)  I1 7/1 2nd 8/1 

3.50 – I’m Always Trying (m TJC) w1 14,30 H3 I1 7/4 UP

4.20 – 

Vinnie Red (hnpc c) 12/1 S2 3rd

Workbench (m TJC) 14,30  I1  10/1 S2 S5 2nd 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 14/169,58p, -13.7) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +144)

Daily Tips

1.50 Uttox – Magical Thomas– 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) 2nd (not sure if last flight error cost him but that’s racing, and set tone for the day) 

3.00 Catt – Monaco Rose – 1 point win – 5/1 (gen) UP poor (no Hanagan there today,which was one of reasons for backing, not that made difference to the result) 

4.20 Uttox – Workbench– 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) 2nd (decent run, sadly bumped into a rejuvinated Jonjo horse, the rest well stuffed) 

4.30 Catt – 

Foxtrot Knight – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) UP (poor, no excuse, race run to suit) 

Kinloch Pride– 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) 18/1 (BV) UP (poor, no excuse for the run being that bad really) 

 

Magical Thomas – looked to be coming back to form LTO. 3rd start after a break, returning 17 days from last run which caught eye given that run was after 43 days- with any luck he is spot on here. Ran well until about 2f out there and I thought he would be up there today, either leading or tracking Scotsbrook Knight. I thought there were reasons to take on top two and he was a shade overpriced. Now 3lb below his last winning mark with the claim and he’s only had 11 hurdle runs so still some youth in his legs. 

Monaco Rose – maybe foolish taking on the two 3 year olds but they have a couple of questions to answer here for me and this one returned to some sort of form at Chester. Takes a drop in class, mark has fallen 5lb in last two runs, Hanagan returns for first time in a while, 15 starts or so. He is the main man for Fahey so maybe significant he jumps back on. The pace was interesting…she could lead or in any case be right behind the Johnston horse and if good enough, will be in the right spot. Maybe the weight for age allowance will prove too much to give away, but Johnston’s steps up in class and if there is cut in the ground, has that to prove. Bell’s has some questions also but should step forward at some point. Hopefully Fahey’s has too much for them. 

Workbench – the yard are on fire in recent weeks and I liked the fact he dropped back in trip here and the CP returned, having been off for a few runs – and would you believe it his mark has been falling in that time. Those were the reasons why I thought he could jump back to form in a race which is generally packed with older/exposed horses. I just thought 10s looked a few points too big in the context of this race and he had plenty going for him. If he returned to the form of that Sandown win just 6 starts back, he would outrun these odds and probably be the one to beat. Trip move/headgear switch/trainer form/handicap mark and make up of the race are all reasons why he could. 

Foxtrot Knight – has just been running solid races against horses that keep franking the form, and I thought a repeat of his last two runs should put him bang in the frame here, and 7s was a shade too big. There are 3 in here who really like to get on with it and I hope they have a burn up on the front end. I could have that wrong but it may set up for horses sat just behind the pace, of which I have two onside here. Conditions look spot on for this CD winner, Jimmy S jumps back in the saddle, and in theory he should go well! 

Kinloch Pride – I was struggling to work out why this one was 16/1, but maybe we will find out this afternoon! She returned to some sort of form at Muss, where she travelled well and the jockey ended up switching her around the field to the centre of the track, which wasn’t ideal. But, she ran well. She is 2/4,3p over CD, is well handicapped again, now 2lb below her last winning mark in a C4 at Muss, and also gets a further 3lb from a jockey that knows her well. She has run well with cut before, and while all wins have been on GF, the price has lured me in. A few starts back she finished a head in front of the O’Meara horse, getting 3lb that day. With the jockey claim she received 17lb today. I’d like to think that should put them closer, but often it doesn’t work out that way. That fav has improved for front running tactics on fast ground, but i’d hope he doesn’t get an easy lead today and that the handicapper may now have him. If that’s the case then this does become an open race, and with any luck one of these two can pick up the pieces. 

Video 

You can watch it HERE>>>

(for some reason I can’t embed it within the post at the moment. Something wrong with my settings on here no doubt, never had a problem before) 

 

Recent Tips

None.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

D McCain (14/1< guide)

4.20 Uttox – The Clock Leary 14/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Top of the Class 2018: report HERE>>>

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

34 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Hi Josh, couple of extra at Ling
    2.10 – Seductive (1st 2yo)
    3.10 – Flowing Clarets (micro, -1 class)
    Mike

    Titus 17/07/18 6:20 PM Reply


    • They are on the sand I believe…it’s one of those mixed cards again 🙂

      Josh 17/07/18 6:35 PM Reply


      • Ah, yes, made a note on my stats page now to remind me.
        cheers
        Mike

        Titus 17/07/18 7:34 PM Reply


  • Another two winners on the AW with Image and Glory Awaits giving us 7.5pts profit on the day to BOG.

    There is a half card of AW at Lingfield and a full card at Wolves tomorrow. Qualifiers below:

    Lingfield
    2.10 Capla Rock 9/2
    3.10 Ask The Guru 11/2

    Wolves
    8.00 Moans Cross 14/1
    8.35 Moayadd 14/1
    9.05 River Cafe 5/1

    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 17/07/18 7:47 PM Reply


  • Flat Jockey Profits

    Typical, the first day I post qualifiers and not a winner in sight.
    No qualifiers tomorrow.

    Ken McKenzie 17/07/18 8:15 PM Reply


    • That’s sods law in action, Ken. The one thing I don’t like about jockey/track systems is “having to back” them all if a jockey has a full book of rides, like Jim Crowley at Chelmsford today.
      Good result for us e/w backers with Honeyball’s runner in the 7.50 at Worcester, available at 66/1 with Bet 365 this morning. July is a good month to back his non-handicap hurdlers and bumper runners historically.

      johnnyb 17/07/18 8:41 PM Reply


      • I know what you mean Johnny but on 7 July he had 3/3 at Nottingham @ 7/1, 9/2 & 7/2 for 30pts profit to 2pts win.

        There will always be ups and downs but (hopefully) the ups will be better than the downs. No guarantees mind 🙂

        With the original pdf there was a spreadsheet of all the jockey results. I will do a bit of analysis to see if it can be narrowed down further eg. restricting it to certain range of odds.

        Ken McKenzie 17/07/18 10:00 PM Reply


    • I’ve been ridiculed many times on here for speaking out against touts but lazily following stats is just as big a loser. The thought you can get up in the morning, scratch your balls and within 1/2 hour put on various winning bets and expect long term profits is pure fantasy.
      This website is worth its subscription not only for the stats ( which should be used in conjunction with ones findings ) but the enthusiasm of its posters, some looking for gold in dem der hills. Personally I love reading peoples thoughts, systems etc, reminds me of myself many years ago. Even at my age and experience I’m still learning and sometimes you catch a new angle, not trick like some would think.
      Hope you’re doing fine Roddo

      chubnut 17/07/18 9:25 PM Reply


      • I think that we all understand that most systems likely fail but some are successful over a period of time, be it short or longer. I think that it is good to test them and share them. No one should be backing selections from systems until they are proved. The jockeys one is a case in point. We shall see how they go? But always put them up for scrutiny and lets test them over a sample and bet on them when we think they may work. A Case in point is where Martin Whittle posted selections and said he was going to see through a sample of 100 despite their initial lack of success. That is the way to do it. It does not matter if it failed as long as you tried. Learn and move on and then hit a nugget that can be used and shared within the blog.

        martin colwell 17/07/18 9:54 PM Reply


      • Hi Chubnut. If you are referring to me and my postings on the flat jockey profits, I agree with you to a certain extent. I agree that you should never follow a system blindly but I do believe that a stats based approach can work in the long term if it is backed up by the data.

        This system is based on 3 years of data which I think is long enough to give it a try. It’s based on historic results, so things can, and most likely will change, in the future which is why I am keeping a log of all my bets on this system, so I can adapt it where required.

        It won’t suit everyone due to the high number of qualifiers on certain days but I regularly stress the need to have an adequate bank to cope with an extended losing run.

        I’m happy to put up qualifiers when time allows but it’s up the individual to decide if they wish to follow and to have a suitable bank size. I’m not forcing anyone’s arm up their back!

        Ken McKenzie 17/07/18 10:19 PM Reply


        • When seeing a large number of qualifiers and then maybe also looking at the raw data behind a system and seeing long losing runs it can be easy to be put off backing so many horses systematically. Hence my reason for putting up the stats yesterday for Crowley just at Chelmsford. From the qualifiers it was easy to focus on the long losing runs and not many multiples, but the overall stats are still decent. So as Ken and many others have said before, you need a bank that can withstand the losing runs (as I have learnt), or follow Josh’s long standing advice of using the qualifiers from the stats as a way in.

          I am interested to see how these pan out in time, and as Ken has said maybe with some further tweaks.

          Chris R.

          broadsword 18/07/18 8:07 AM Reply


        • Hi Ken
          Thanks for starting to put up the selections for Flat Jockey Profits,i for one am keen to see how they perform,and with three years data sounds good to me,please do not start meddling with them just put up the selections in full.
          Cheers
          Colin

          colin leafe 18/07/18 10:38 AM Reply


      • Im doing fine Chubnut thanks. Just come home from two weeks in the Majorcan sun. A fair bit of common sense spoken there. Perhaps you sat in the corner with a pointed hat on was a front. I will take notice of what you are saying from now on.
        Just a parting shot. The spending money i used on holiday was from the winnings of that numpty who talks so****ks. Have a great day.
        Lol Roddo

        Roddo 18/07/18 8:29 AM Reply


      • Hi Chubnut
        Do not know what to make of you with your criticism and know all attitude that you know best and everyone else are fools.
        EVEN AT MY AGE AND EXPERIENCE YOUR WORDS QUOTE
        Then if you are so good why do you not share your bets and info with us mere fools,YOU did some time ago when you had a go at me i did not respond then,trust all your accounts are closed,which i doubt for your bets on here were poor and that is being polite.
        Start putting your bets up so we can see how good you are,and let us all share you good fortune by backing them.
        I have my wheelbarrow at the ready but doubt that it will be filled with notes only bullshit.

        colin leafe 18/07/18 10:57 AM Reply


        • *Josh dons his firefighting gear*

          gallou 18/07/18 11:47 AM Reply


  • todays qualifiers.
    15:50 Uttoxeter. Our Folly 25-1 b365
    16:20 Uttoxeter. The Clock Leary 14-1
    not qualifiers but came close, just had a quid ew on them, will not be included in figures.
    15:30 Catterick. Socialites Red 18-1
    16:10 Lingfield. Nouvelle Ere 11-1

    martin whittle 17/07/18 9:45 PM Reply


    • posted after racing yesterday.
      results update 61 selections 1 wins,14 places, staked 61 pts returns 29.75pts down 31.25 pts.

      martin whittle 18/07/18 1:22 AM Reply


  • Lady Markby Uttoxeter Wednesday 15:50 1pt e/w Price available 10/1
    Penny Dreadful Catterick Wednesday 16:30 1pt e/w Price available 12/1

    Nick Mazur 17/07/18 10:04 PM Reply


  • Hi all just off to work this one is for you to make a judgement on, it could be regressive but stands out to me, 1.50 Uttoxeter Stipulate, once an Henry Cecil inmate, then spent 2 years in Australia, back in march this year was beaten a length and a quarter by a horse who has won his last 3 in class 2/3. the trainer knows the time of day so if the price starts to tumble you know they are trying, only runner here today also.

    Good Luck All

    Greg

    Greg Phillips 18/07/18 7:27 AM Reply


    • I think you’ve somehow overlooked a long spell with Brian Ellison in 2016 and 2017.

      Chris Murrell 18/07/18 8:31 AM Reply


  • Nice win for Azzuri yesterdat but unfortunate the R4 took all the value out of the win.

    Chris M Selections:

    Catterick
    16:30 – Foxtrot Knight (7/1 gen)

    Uttoexeter
    14:50 – Indian Reel (10/1 gen)
    16:20 – I’m An Izz Wizz (9/1 bet365, 17/2 gen)

    Killarney
    20:40 – Vic’s Little Miss (8/1 gen)

    Good luck with your bets today

    Chris M 18/07/18 9:17 AM Reply


  • Tips – Anyone who can go back 25 years plus will remember the old system of back three year olds carrying eight stone dead in a handicap. I cannot remember how it did but there is one running today that I have been tracking. The Queen’s horse, Refrain, trained by Michael Stoute, goes in the 8.35 at Wolves on the AW. It is drifting at present to 11/2. The bet is 2 points each way BOG. Minus 12.25 points in July.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 18/07/18 10:04 AM Reply


    • What was the logic for that ‘weight’ system… I have just looked in HRB since 2003 in flat turf and AW handicaps, carrying 8st dead, (exc jockey claims) , since 2003, 76/1202, 221p, 6% win SR, -346 SP, 16% below market expectations (AE 0.84). I assume there must have been some other rules, in terms of the systematic approach! GL

      Josh 18/07/18 10:08 AM Reply


      • I am just highlighting that it used to be a common system back in the 70’s and 80’s etc. I am going back to the days of light weight jockeys such as Frankie Durr and a young Willie Carson. I doubt that it did win in the long run? Where handicaps have tightened up in weight distribution top to bottom, such instances must now be rare. My tip was based upon words spoken by the trainer about this horse when he went into handicaps and not the 3 -8 -0 ‘system’. We shall see how how goes.

        martin colwell 18/07/18 10:36 AM Reply


  • Oh for the heady days of fitzgerald and Akehurst bottom weights in proper big handicaps.Masters in there profession.

    Aaron 18/07/18 10:24 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    1.50 Uttoxeter Tidal Watch
    3.30 Catterick Rose Marmara

    Good run continues 2 bets 1 winner 9/2 to 11/4 SP,got it right taking the odds on fav on.

    colin leafe 18/07/18 10:30 AM Reply


    • Great work again today Colin, Thank you.

      Dan Prandy 18/07/18 3:37 PM Reply


    • That’s how it done! Great work as always.

      Francis 18/07/18 3:38 PM Reply


  • a little stat ditty today trainer ian williams in last 12 months at uttoxeter 14 runners 4wins 3 places 2 runners today dory 2.20 and readers choice 4.50. intresting thing is most of his good percentage stats are at grade one tracks hence his ability at landing a class handicap coup. modest fair today but this seems one track his lower grade horses run well good luck

    paul bailey 18/07/18 10:39 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh and members bar one.
    This is a wonderful site which Josh as produced with genuine horse racing fans who wish to share ideas some good and some not so good.
    For myself i enjoy every ones comments and contributions daily.

    If i upset any member with my bullshit quote i apologize to you.
    Cheers
    Colin

    colin leafe 18/07/18 11:07 AM Reply


    • *Josh climbs out of firefighting gear, removes big boots*

      gallou 18/07/18 11:50 AM Reply


    • Hi Colin, I cant remember critising you at any time but then again I am at an age where memories are hazy. I’m also pretty sure that I’ve posted very few horses as well. I’ve been told a big run is expected from Sugar plum fairy 1.40 no doubt kiss of death now. wheelbarrow at the ready !!

      chubnut 18/07/18 1:28 PM Reply


  • Handicap winners:-
    500 Wotabreeze
    730 Super Florence

    chrisrees 18/07/18 1:18 PM Reply


    • Both lost.

      chrisrees 19/07/18 7:53 AM Reply


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