Members Daily Post: 15/07/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

JUMPS

Perth

2.30 – 

Top Billing (nov hncp) I3 6/1 UP

Ballingvegga (nov hncp) 16/1 S2A UP

3.05 – Reivers Lodge (micro TJC) I3 10/1 S2 S5 UP

3.35 – Okotoks (all hncps + hncp chase + m TJC) w1 H3 I3 7/4 UP

4.40 – 

Tangolan (all hncps + hncp chase + m TJC) 6/1 UP

Nefyn Bay (hncp chase) w1 14 H1 I3 7/4  UP

5.15 – 

Green Zone (hncp h) I3 4/1 

 

Stratford 

2.40 – One For Billy (m class) 14,30 H1 I1 4/7  WON

3.45 – Deadly Move (hncp c) 14,30 H3 I1 9/2 UP

5.25 – Kilcaragh Boy  (m TJC)  11/1 S2 UP

 

Southwell 

2.20 – Generous Chief (all hncps) H1 9/1 3rd 

5.00 – 

Charlie Cook (all hncps) 15/2 UP

Fled or Pled (m age) 8/1 UP

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 14/163,56p, -7.7) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +144)

Daily Tips- None today, having had a flick through. After yesterday, a quieter day may be in order anyway, having not backed a winner all day! Gulp. 

 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Paddy Brenna (14/1< guide) 

4.40 P – Tangolan UP

3.35 P – Okotoks  UP

D McCain (14/1< guide) 

4.40 P – Nefyn Bay UP

5.15 P – Prince Khurram  WON 6/1 

Tom Lacey 

3.45 Strat – King Spirit 2nd 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Re-cap…well that was a frustrating week on the Festival Tipping front at Newmarket. A nose 2nd at 18/1 and a 14/1 winner that I crossed off last from the shortlist in Burnt Sugar. Given the form of the yard, and his place in the market (what with the odds stats) in hindsight I should have just fired all three darts, but not to be. Pleased I was that close but annoyed I didn’t make the final leap, but that will always happen to an extent in those races. Leaving Foxtrot Lady was also an error. So, -6 on the week there, where it could have been +17. Close, but not close enough. The York pokes may still be running. It’s been a crap day all round as I type and one I would rather forget. 

There were plenty of positives from the ‘festival pointers’ approach I think. That worked well in terms of highlighting winners and they found every winner on Saturday, with the ‘in form’ trainers leading the way. My own ‘through the card’ attempts were poor, I really shouldn’t bother when rushing through so won’t bother in future, but plenty of work to do on that front. Albeit if I’d have put up Burnt Sugar it would have been a profitable day, so a game of fine margins as always. Hopefully you may have used those pointers to find a few. I didn’t get AOB right all week at Ascot, and likewise with Appleby at Newmarket! When he has a treble and you don’t put up any, you know you’re in trouble. Anyway, plenty there to take away moving forwards. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

27 Comments

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  • Don’t be too hard on yourself Josh, you produced a heck of a lot of good stuff. I really appreciate seeing your rationale for your decisions and the honesty of your post mortems. You never stop learning from this game!

    Mark Curtis 14/07/18 6:56 PM Reply


    • thanks Mark, yep always something to learn and improve on! When you are close to perfection in those big handicaps it’s always painful, as they are hard to land on the right ones, so when you are nearly there/one step away, it’s frustrating. Should have had the two winners at Newmarket but in general the level of thinking/analysis was right, just that final decision. Next time. Burnt Sugar was in the context of a crap day all round also which never helps the mood, and that result set the tone somewhat.

      Josh 15/07/18 11:43 AM Reply


  • Update on Flat Jockey Profits:

    Today was a stellar day with 7 wins and a place from 17 selections. This produced a profit of 42.90pts on the day based on 2pt win from evs up to 10/1 and 1pt each way above that.

    Since I started recording on 29 June, the overall profit is 72.80pts with an ROI of 43.33% based on odds taken/BOG.

    If you add in the secondary strategy for Ryan Moore (ie. RM on Aidan O’Brien horses), the profit increases to 109.25pts (ROI 50.58%) over the same period. Pretty impressive stuff! It’s certainly helped to boost my betting bank over the last 2 weeks.

    Ken McKenzie 14/07/18 10:50 PM Reply


    • Hi Ken

      Can you tell me where/when the jockey strategies were posted I must have missed them they look very interesting

      Peter L

      peter0104 14/07/18 11:33 PM Reply


      • Hi Peter

        As Josh said, it came from a free report which he provided a link to in an email dated 22 June. Unfortunately the link doesn’t seem to be working now (just tested it).

        If I have time I may post qualifiers (if both Josh and Kieran are OK with this) but it was more intended to provide updates to let you know how the system was faring so you could make up your own mind whether to follow or not.

        Ken McKenzie 15/07/18 10:10 AM Reply


        • Hi Ken

          Thanks for the reply hopefully Josh will get the OK to post the link or you get the ok to post the qualifiers time permitting

          peter0104 15/07/18 10:21 AM Reply


    • Hi ken,any chance you can post them on here,as i would like to avoid laying these.

      tclee2 15/07/18 9:42 AM Reply


      • Hi all, the report was from Kieran Ward that he was giving away. It isn’t mine to post or indeed post the qualifiers, although I have just emailed him to ask if a) he minds me posting the direct link to PDF and b) whether he minds quals being posted (which I think Ken would be happy to do from time to time). I’ll keep you posted.
        Josh

        Josh 15/07/18 9:47 AM Reply


        • Thanks Josh

          peter0104 15/07/18 9:55 AM Reply


    • fabulous stuff Ken, on a difficult month, I am glad to see you are going well with these.

      Paul Ebrey 15/07/18 11:47 AM Reply


  • well it’s days like yesterday that make you question everything your doing with Euchen Glen (put up in free post) my only winner all day, but it’s back to the everyday grind let’s hope for a better day today.
    2 qualifiers today, system not doing to well at present but the qualifiers it’s coming up with are better than results suggest imho.
    14:20 Southwell, Generous chief 9-1 sky 4 places
    17:25 Stratford. Kingston 10-1

    martin whittle 15/07/18 5:12 AM Reply


    • “qualifiers better than the results”
      If I read that, I’d usually dismiss it as self deception! However, looking at them daily, I’ve been saying that ‘looks a good bet’ – not that I’ve backed any, yet.

      chrisrees 15/07/18 8:23 AM Reply


  • and i wouldn’t any time soon Chris, very much in it’s infancy . i know what you mean if i had seen anyone else post “qualifiers better than the results” the word delusional would spring to mind 🙂 saying that i’ve done the same when looking at them so hopefully i’m onto something just don’t know what yet (probably how to give the bookies money)

    martin whittle 15/07/18 9:45 AM Reply


  • morning all,

    just glad i left the racing alone yesterday. Far too competitive.

    Just two from me today. There is money around for these two so dont be put off by the price. The latter especially!

    STRAT 2.10 Enforcement 20s available most places.

    SOUTH 2.50 Beyond the glen 125s massive on the exchanges.

    good luck

    jarrodholmes68 15/07/18 9:52 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    No bet today

    Will do round up tomorrow

    colin leafe 15/07/18 10:18 AM Reply


  • U.S. Racing tips – Gulfstream race 4, 7.15 UK time, Love and Lemons. No prices yet on Oddschecker. +26.5 since end of June, when I started getting this guy to tip. Early days yet.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 15/07/18 10:31 AM Reply


    • Winner Winner. I had 7/1 via Oddschecker but SP was 9/4.

      martin colwell 15/07/18 9:32 PM Reply


  • Is there anything from Nick today or have I missed it somewhere?

    Chris Sengelow 15/07/18 12:42 PM Reply


    • nope, I haven’t seen anything.

      Josh 15/07/18 12:43 PM Reply


  • With his permission…Kieran Ward’s Jockey’s Report…

    Direct Link : http://thevalueservice.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Flat-Jockey-Profits-2018.pdf

    Also, anyone is free to post up quals in here/discuss them etc if you so wish. Certainly a good ‘way in’ I think, but seems to be working well systematically for now.

    Josh

    Josh 15/07/18 12:44 PM Reply


    • Thanks for the link Josh

      peter0104 15/07/18 1:32 PM Reply


  • I had Burnt Sugar tipped to me from Nick Pullen’s ‘Against The Crowd’ service, which was the first time I ever paid for tips. He seems to do quite well for me, dunno if anyone else has an thoughts on him as I’m far from an expert.

    Aidan Trimble 15/07/18 1:15 PM Reply


  • On my way back from Bristol so didn’t get a chance to look until this afternoon but a couple from me:

    The Lion Man Southwell 17:00 1pt e/w
    Kingston Stratford 17:25 1pt e/w

    Nick Mazur 15/07/18 1:22 PM Reply


  • Ok I know this is off topic and I hope josh doesn’t tell me off but I’m throwing a few points at the World Cup today. France -1 1 point lovren to be booked 1 point and a speculative France any other home win at 26/1 . I’ll look to lay some off if there 2-0 halftime. Good luck everyone

    jamie2255 15/07/18 3:14 PM Reply


    • tut tut! 🙂 As it’s the final I’ll allow a non racing comment in the members post haha. Best of luck.

      Josh 15/07/18 3:28 PM Reply


  • I’ve laid off my liability on the any other home win to sit with a free bet.

    jamie2255 15/07/18 4:54 PM Reply


  • A couple of us are going to Bath races on Tuesday – others more than welcome to join us.

    Josh, if you happen to find yourself at a loose end, a ‘through the card’ would be very well received.

    No problems if not.

    Francis 15/07/18 7:26 PM Reply


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