Members Daily Post: 13/07/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Newmarket 

4.45 – Hochfeld (dust move) I3 12/1 UP

 

York

2.40 – Mukhayyam (m runs) w1 H3 I3 G3 9/2 S4 S5 UP

3.50 – Jahaafel (all hncps 5 yrs, 4yo+) (hncp debut) ES+  3/1 S3A UP

 

Ascot 

3.25 – Sam Missile (m class) H3 12/1  UP

 

Chepstow

6.10 – Peak Storm (m dist) 22/1 UP

7.15 – 

Quantum Dot (3yo+ hncp, all hncps) w2 G1 9/1 S6 WON 8/1>6/1 (R4) 9.40 BFSP

Baby Fact (m class + m runs) 14 I1 6/1 S6 UP

Major Valentine (m age) I3 14/1 UP

8.50-

Earthy (late add)(m dist) I1  4/1 UP

Petrify (m dist) H1 G1 5/1 S1  UP

 

Chester

6.55 – 

Aasheeq (3yo+ hncp) w2 w1 H3 I3 G1 2/1 S2 S4  2nd 

Rainbow Rebel (m class) 14,30 w2 w1 H1 G3 11/4 S2 WON 7/2

7.55 – Our Charlie Brown (3yo+ hncp + m dist) I3  7/1 UP

8.30 – Our Kylie (m class move) G1 11/1 S6 UP

9.00 – Venturous (m age) 14 I3 9/1 2nd 

 

JUMPS

Ffos Las

6.30 – 

More Bucks (m days) w114,30 H1

Lotus Pond (m days since run) w2 w1 14,30 H3 5/2  WON 5/2 

7.35 – Ballyandrew (m TJC/class) 25/1 S2A  UP

8.05 – 

Equus Millar (m TJC) w2 I1 12/1 S2 S5 2nd 

Voodoo Doll (m dist) w2 w1 H1 I1 15/2 S5 WON 6/1 15.01 BFSP

Dr Robin (m dirt move) 14,30 33/1 UP

 

Bonus (Irish) 

4.50 – Make My Heart Fly (m runs) 11/1 S2 

5.55 – 

Pump Road (hncp h) ES+ 14/1 S2 S3A UP

Charlottes Chum (m runs) 14/1 S2 UP

 

*

KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 14/163,56p, -7.7) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +148)

Daily Tips

NONE… I’ve had a good look through all the stats quals and nothing at the prices is tempting me in, and I’m trying to be disciplined with my prices, discarding those under 6s for tipping purposes. 

 

 

Festival Tips (+148 points 2018)

None from Newmarket on Day 2. No massive field handicaps to attack with stats/trends etc. The feature race on Day 1 was frustrating, my 18/1 poke getting done near the line and beaten by a nose. That’s how it goes in those races. The salt in the wound was whether I should have put up the winner at 8s. I have a psychological barrier with horses at single figures in races like that and maybe I was too dismissive on that one. I flagged it as the one I liked most of the ‘shorter’ ones and given her form, where she came from at York and the trainer’s record in the race (and owner/trainer) it was evident this was the plan. She was also top rated on GG. Close and I can’t complain with how I read it. Those races are a game of very fine margins. It was evident that the far side rail was where everyone wanted to be and it looked to be an actual track bias, with the near side riding like very slow. Whether that holds up as the week progresses, we shall see. 

 

Recent Tips

(results update tbc) 

7.15 Chep – Major Valentine (2nd run, since NR) 14/1 

7.55 Chest – Sayeese (3rd run) 33/1 

8.50 Chep – Kath’s Legacy (2nd run) 9/4 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

6.30 FL – Knockaderry Flyer 11/1 

Jonjo Handicap Debut 

6.00 FL – Rosie McQueen  9/1 

*

Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

6.30 FL – Fifty Shades

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update

brief update…I’ll do a full round up next week, inc this week’s, and also I need to update the results links in Key.

2nd – 8th July…

‘Where should you start strategies‘ (link in Key)

Flat S1, S4, S6, Jumps S2A = 10/28, 14p, +6.46 (for the week) 

  • Total 2018 now: 304 bets / 56 wins / 103 places (inc wins) / +119.36 (early/bog) / +157.8 BFSP 

Flat S1+ S4 (stripping out the more turbulent bigger odds strategies/higher win SR/shorter losing runs)

  • 2018 total: 123 bets / 40 wins / 60 places (inc wins) / +61.36 (early/bog)

Other of note: S3A# was 2/7,2p, +8 on the week, taking total to: 114 bets / 33 wins / 52 places / +44.48 (early/bog)  

 

*

Newmarket Day 2 

Mark Johnston
Stats for the previous 5 meetings: 

All: 55 bets / 9 wins / 17 places / +54 BFSP

  • 8f or further: 7/22,10p, +73 BFSP
    • Inc a 25/1 winner
  • Ran at ‘a Festival’ on last run (Royal Ascot/Newmarket Guineas/Epsom Derby/Chester 2 Day July/Sandown 2 Day mid June/Sandown Eclipse)
    • 7/24,12p, +76
    • Just Royal Ascot LTO: 5/16,9p, +29
  • Distance Move: Up 2f – 3/7,3p, +70
  • Horse had 4-13 career runs: 8/25,11p, +82
  • Class 2/1m2-1m2.5f: 4/11,4p, +73
  • Handicaps:all 4 wins have been over 1m2f: 4/11,4p, +73
  • Jockey had ridden horse 1+ times before: 6/24,9p, +70

 

M Johnston Day 2 ‘Qualifiers’ 

2.25 – Main Edition 

3.00 – Poet’s Prince / Communique 

3.35 – Nyaleti / Threading 

4.45 – Hochfeld 

 

Trainer Race Pointers

Trainers that have won said race 2x or more and have a runner

Trainers ‘in form’

’14’ Geegeez Symbol as per key 

Top Rated Runners

Those horses top rated on HorseRaceBase / Geegeez / Inform

 

Update: The approach below did it’s job again on Day 1, finding 5 of the 7 winners, buried away somewhere. I managed to land on 6/4 and 6/1 winners in the ‘through the card’ but that was it, maybe I should try and stick to one horse per race outside of the big field handicaps..

R1 – Well Farhh Go (in form trainers) 

R2 – Advertise (top rated) 

R3 – Foxtrot Lady (race pointers/top rated – urg!) 

R4 – Best Solution (in form trainers) 

R5 – Lovers Knot (race pointers/top rated) 

R6 – none. 

R7 – none 

onto day 2…

 

1.50 

Trainer Race Pointers

Only 3 renewals to date: Gosden/ K Ryan / C Wall 

Trainers ‘in form’

None. 

Top Rated Runners

Gallipoli / – / War Glory 

 

2.25 

Trainer Race Pointers

Gossamer Wings (3/6,3p) 

Trainers ‘in form’

Angels Hideaway / Chaleur / Gossamer Wings / Main Edition / Pretty Pollyanna 

Top Rated Runners

Main Edition / Gossamer Wings / Gossamer Wings 

 

15.00

Trainer Race Pointers

Poets Prince / Communique (5/32,10p) 

Trainers ‘in form’

Zaaki / Wissahickon / Chief Ironside / Desert Wind / Poets Prince / Communique /

Top Rated Runners

Chief Ironside / Wissachickon / Wissahickon|Communique 

 

15.35 

Trainer Race Pointers

Clemmie (2/6) 

Trainers ‘in form’

Arabian Hope / Altyn Order / Clemmie / Nyaleti / Threading 

Top Rated Runners

Alpha Centauri / Alpha Centauri / Alpha Centauri 

 

16.10

Trainer Race Pointers

No trends. C Appleby won last year’s race (Al Hilalee/Art Du Val/Journey of Life)

Trainers ‘in form’

Allmankind / Al Mureib / Machell Place / Mount Tabora / Mayef Road / Sameem

Top Rated Runners

(only 3 have ratings in the race) 

Dombra / Dombra / Dombra 

 

16.45 

Trainer Race Pointers

New race, no trends. 

Trainers ‘in form’

Hochfeld / Natural Scenery / Saunter 

Top Rated Runners

Hamada / Hamada / Saunter 

 

17.20

Trainer Race Pointers

No trainer has won this more than once in the period 

Trainers ‘in form’

Ripp Ort / Swiss Storm / Court of Justice 

Top Rated Runners

Corrosive / Roll On Rory / Rip Orf 

 

*

Newmarket Day 2: Through The Card

I’m off to Newmarket today with some friends and if the following all fall out the back of the tv it won’t have been a good day, punting wise…

1.50 – Maksab – two times CD winner, won well enough here two starts back. Ran well at at Ayr at a track that may not have suited..hopefully the return here and the climb to the line sees him return to winners enclosure. Gets plenty of weight from these and in a race lacking any out and out pace on paper, hopefully young Eagan has him in the right spot, and may even try and lead against the far rail. 

2.25 – Main Edition – plenty to like about this winning machine and she should be the one they all have to pass on the front end. Hopefully she gets out and stays out. The AOB runner is a danger and may appreciate the step back up but in general I’ll side with those who I think will be on the front end here.

3.00 – Communique – Johnston likes winning this race and this one was well punted to win at RA when he looked like a non stayer to my eyes. Maybe returning 9 days after that effort wasn’t ideal LTO and we know MJs runners can just bounce back. I wanted something at a tasty price in this and I thought SDS may try and dictate from the front. Probably an decent EW wager as If he got an uncontested lead and IF he bounced back to his best, he should be in there pitching come the end. 

3.35 – a no bet race really…if AC turns up she bolts up. The most impressive winner of the week at Ascot this is some star in the making. 

4.10 – Al Mureib / Kuwait Currency / True Grit … well, this is a race to have some fun with for change and hopefully win some money to but a round of soft drinks! 🙂 I’ve picked three at big prices but will have a look at them pre race and use my dodgy paddock eye. 

4.45 – Elgin – I probably don’t want to wade in at 2s, but I’m not sure I want to oppose him. Given his jumps mark of 161 when last seen, you’d think he should have plenty in hand from this opening flat handicap mark. He is the most interesting in this by far and we shall see if he’s up to this level. He should be. 

5.20 – Court of Justice – one with a different profile and given the number of meetings today maybe significant that Spencer is here to ride. It all came right LTO and the Haggas horse that was behind him at Beverley has since bolted up also. There was a lack of pace on paper in this, which may disadvantage the likes of the Hannon horse (or at least give them another obstacle to overcome) and while inexperience may do for this one’s chances, I just thought Spencer may be up there/try and lead. He’d be an idiot to hold this one up today now he’s learnt how to race and has won. A front running Spencer special please. 

*

*

 

PLEASE NOTE: I’m off to the races today and will endeavour to get section 1 posted later this evening, but likely to be late. I won’t be staying out this evening and will be up early Sat for a 4 hour stint. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

24 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Looks like a day to be circumspect at Ffos Las and Chepstow in view of the rain forecast for Wales and SW England.

    chrisrees 12/07/18 8:19 PM Reply


  • St Johns Ffos Las Friday 19:35 1pt e/w Price available 20/1
    Voodoo Doll Ffos Las Friday 20:05 1pt e/w Price available 8/1

    Nick Mazur 12/07/18 10:19 PM Reply


    • I do love the inconsistency of the handicapper. Not sure how a horse goes up just 2lbs for a win. Or even how he is 7/1 when dropping in class. Still our gain and nice to finally get a winner. Third one placed too.

      Nick Mazur 13/07/18 8:17 PM Reply


      • Yes, good winner, thanks Nick.

        I had the third in an ew double with Zap. Don’t ask me why I put a horse in a seven runner race in an ew double, just felt right at the time. I really must stop having feels.

        Chris Murrell 13/07/18 8:28 PM Reply


      • Nice one Nick, I was celebrating 3f out when Voodoo Doll was cruising along still on the bridle and the rest were paddling backwards.

        james p 13/07/18 8:39 PM Reply


    • Exchange paid 15.01 not very often they are this wrong,hey ho good night down town tonight,thanks Nick.

      colin leafe 13/07/18 8:35 PM Reply


  • todays qualifiers.
    18:30 Ffos Las. Shelford 33-1 bv
    18:30 Ffos Las. Lord Ballim 16-1 sky 4 places

    martin whittle 13/07/18 6:01 AM Reply


  • should be 20:05 Ffos Las for Lord Ballim

    martin whittle 13/07/18 6:04 AM Reply


  • Our next bet in the starting points chasers is a 1.5% stake on Fifty Shades 630, the last four bets being losers.

    chrisrees 13/07/18 8:49 AM Reply


    • Lost, 3rd.
      Summary: 15 bets, 5 winners, profit to BSP £60.15 – £156 staked. To industry prices the profit is £29.85 staking £10 40 a bet.
      Next bet £16.

      chrisrees 13/07/18 6:55 PM Reply


  • Chris M Selections:

    Ascot-
    15:25 – Sam Missile (12/1 gen)

    Chester-
    19:55 – Twin Appeal (4/1 gen)

    Newmarket-
    14:15 – Gossamer Wings (5/1 gen)
    15:00 – Beringer (13/2 gen)
    17:20 – Ripp Orf (6/1 lads, 11/2 gen)

    Chris M 13/07/18 9:39 AM Reply


    • Talked myself out of the eventual winner Pretty Pollyana of the 2:25 @ Nmrkt. I would be fine if the odds are 10/1 or below (which they normally are and were when I made my selections) but to win at 20/1 SP, ouch! Those kind of wins is why I take a few hours each night to review the racing each day and find horses that catch my eye. Caught my eye a few weeks back at Ascot and at 20/1 the niggles that made me not select would be wiped out. Onwards and upwards they say :/

      Chris M 13/07/18 3:06 PM Reply


    • Well done with rip orf

      Paul Ebrey 13/07/18 7:26 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Newmarket
    1.50 Zap
    YORK
    3.15 Could It Be Love
    3.50 Delph Crescent
    Chepstow
    5.35 Aqua Libre
    Ffoss Las
    7.35 Barkis
    Chester
    7.55 Twin Appeal

    colin leafe 13/07/18 10:09 AM Reply


    • Great start with Zap Colin that was a hell of a gamble

      christopher jones 13/07/18 2:00 PM Reply


    • Outstanding again Colin – I can sit back and enjoy the day’s races now!

      Francis 13/07/18 2:01 PM Reply


    • Terrific Colin! Thank you!

      I’ve also got Zap in a spur of the moment ew double with one of Nick’s, will that dodgy Williams bloke deliver?

      Chris Murrell 13/07/18 5:27 PM Reply


  • Y’day we had a snack with one bet, won, today it’s an eleven course banquet:-
    150 Maksab
    240 Manjaam
    325 White Desert
    445 Hamada
    530 Citron Major
    600 Cafe au Lait
    655 Rainbow Rebel
    735 Barkis
    805 Voodoo Doll
    815 Starboy
    900 Zac Brown
    I hope that lot doesn’t give heartburn.

    chrisrees 13/07/18 10:57 AM Reply


    • Results: L L L W4.10 L W8.20 L W15.00(!) L L
      Summary (from 8/7) 23 bets, 8 wins, average price of winners 5.10
      Profit to 1 pt win @ BSP less stake and commission: 25.92.

      chrisrees 13/07/18 9:15 PM Reply


  • U.S Racing Tips – Arlington race 5, 11.11 UK, Electrifying and Mr Kirby, back both and put in an exacta. Wednesdays selection won. It was 4/1 on Oddschecker but was returned at 11/8.

    Tips – 2.40 Yo Mukhayyan for 2 points. Won this last year. Is a front runner and should get the lead again. Also 9.00 Che Lucky Beggar for 2 points. Is lower in grade today and has a good draw. July to date minus 10.25 points.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 13/07/18 10:59 AM Reply


  • Sorry…. No time to do write up or times

    Few for you to ponder today.

    Tru grit
    Gabrial the one
    Marquis of carabas
    Magical dreamer

    jarrodholmes68 13/07/18 2:06 PM Reply


  • Thanks Josh!, Another top piece of trainer analysis there with Communique. …broke my run of 2nds/3rds

    jamesm 13/07/18 3:15 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, cracking idea to get trainer race pointers ,trainers in form and top rated runners as starter points.Could maybe extend this smaller meetings as those stats will show u

    stephen etheridge 13/07/18 5:41 PM Reply


Post A Reply