Members Daily Post 06/07/18 (complete)

Section 1 (comp) Test zone, Update, Old Newton Cup

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Sandown

4.05 – 

Melting Dew (micro class/going/age) w1 14,30 H1 I3 4/1 S2 WON 4/1>3/1

Alternative Fact (m age) 10/1 UP

4.40 – Zealander (m dist) 14,30 H1 I1 G1 6/4 S1 S4 2nd 

 

Doncaster

2.05 – Monsieur Piquer (2YO) 7/1 UP

3.45 – Saving Grace (all hncps + 3yo+) w2 3/1 WON 3/1 

4.50 – Valdizar (all hncps) G3 11/4 UP

 

Beverley

7.10 – Areen Heart (m TJC/dist/age) w1 ES+ H1 I1  5/1 S1 S3A# UP

8.50 – Dundunah (m class/age) ES+  I3 22/1 S3A

 

Haydock

6.45 – Frisella (2YO) 7/4 2nd 

7.55 – 

Hakeem (all hncps) w2  9/2 UP

Sha La La La Lee (all hncps + m TJC) ES+ G3 9/2 S3A 2nd

 

JUMPS

Newton Abbot 

2.15 – Lillian (m TJC) I3 12/1 S2 S5 UP

4.30 – 

Jack Snipe (hncp c) w1 H3 I3 6/1 UP

Royale Django (m TJC) 22/1 S2A UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 14/163,56p, -7.7) (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +152)

NONE – No Notes horses, they will return from Tuesday/Wednesday, which may be no bad thing. Update below…

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Pipe PU (14/1< guide) 

4.30 NA – It’s Obvious UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

PLEASE NOTE…

At 7.30am Friday I’m flying off to Magaluf for a friends stag do. How relaxing! 🙂 I return Monday lunchtime. As always you won’t notice much difference with the systematic elements… Section 1 and the Test Zone will carry on as usual, and I’ll try and post up the evening before or as early as I can on the day of racing. I will aim to get the post complete in one hit, including adding ‘morning prices’ which influence some of the strategies…some of these prices, including Friday’s, will be posted the evening before. I don’t plan to ‘think horse’ at all over the weekend – maybe the break will do my ‘notes’ brain some good, as quite frankly they have been dire in 2018 so far, not up to standard. On the flip side, the Festival tips couldn’t really have done any better given the races targeted/number of bets/profit etc, but the daily action has clearly been a struggle. I’d rather it be that way round but I don’t like being mediocre at something, and so far the notes this year have been just that. Maybe some sun, sea, and alcohol will do me good. After this trip I don’t have anything abroad booked in until October, when I’m off to Paris for the big race, and then Vegas in November. I may try and squeeze a week away in August, (of doing nothing by a pool -I return form these stag/weekends more tired than before I left, which I suppose is the idea) before my research mind will be turning to winter jumps prep. Anyway, have a great weekend, I’ll still be glancing at any comments/emails etc every now and then. 

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Saturday: Haydock- Old Newton Cup

some stats/pointers for this race, to use if you please… I won’t be posting a ‘shortlist’ etc…

10/155 runners, 34 places

9/10 priced 14/1< SP (16/1+, 1/81,12p) 

9/10 had 3+ runs in prev 90 days (0-2 1/79,12p) 

9/10 had 3+ runs this season (0-1, 0/28,4p) 

8/10 test to run above Class 2

  • 2/10 had run at Group 1 level
  • Highest class run: Listed/G3/G2: 0/78,8p

7/10 Aged 4 (5+ 3/79,12p) 

7/10 had been ridden by their jockey 3x previously (7/26,11p…could just be random) 

6/10 had 0-1 runs in the class (6/30,11p) 

6/10 Top 2 last time out  (9/10 top 7) 

Other

  • Stall 19: 2/5,4p, +20 
  • OR 96 or 97: 4/9,6p, +52 
  • Horse had won 2x with jockey before: 5/19,9p, +46 
  • 1 win only in the class: 0/55,8p 
  • Ran 46+ days ago: 0/28,4p 
  • Track LTO: 5/10 ran at Ascot or Haydock LTO, Epsom – 0/16,3p 
  • Trainers: only 2 have won this twice in the period – M Botti and M Johnston 
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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

22 Responses

  1. 1 from 2 and 2 still to run from my Thursday post.

    Friday looks like…

    3.10 Doncaster : Poets Society @ 7/2 BOG
    3.55 Newton Abbot : Tamarillo Grove @ 11/4 BOG
    4.05 Sandown : Melting Dew @ 4/1 BOG
    5.15 Sandown : Michele Strogoff @ 5/2 BOG
    7.55 Haydock : Vale of Kent @ 9/2 BOG

  2. Magaluf and stags and ‘notice no difference’ do not go together based upon my memories of days gone by! Good luck.

  3. I have Sword of Fate 250N as a ‘starting points’ qualifier. Why am I wrong?
    Have a great weekend.

    1. cheers, System doesn’t cover ‘novice’ handicap chases I don’t think, it isn’t appearing in either of my HRB accounts.

  4. Blue De Vega Sandown Friday 13:20 1.5pt win Price available 7/1
    Lillian Newton Abbot Friday 14:15 1pt e/w Price available 12/1
    Charlie Mon Newton Abbot Friday 16:30 1pt e/w Price available 8/1
    Sienna Says Beverley Friday 20:50 1pt e/w Price available 15/2

  5. No joy again at Kempton yesterday so -7pts.

    Chelmsford tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    5.10 Jfoul 5/1
    5.45 Stosur 4/1
    6.55 Greaves 11/2
    9.15 Maraakib 25/1 (EW – Coral 4 places)

    1pt win except where noted EW.

    Good Luck

  6. Okay it’s time for me to put my head on the chopping block again my 4 for tomorrow. All E/W
    N/Abbot 2.15 Lillian 14/1, Won this last year off 8lbs lower, would of needed the run last time after 249 days off and should have no problem with the going, bit of a hot race.
    Sandown 3.00 FoxPremier 15/2 good price for a Frankel offspring, Andrew Balding is 8/44 in the last 14 days is a Derby entry for 2019.
    N/Abbot 3.20 Taste The Wine 10/1, Another who won the same race last year, 5lbs lower than last year and was running on last time over 2miles and 3f at Stratford.
    N/Abbot 4.30 Charlie Mon 15/2, Garstang in Lancashire to Devon is not around the corner, but he is a C/D winner on his only visit here, he is 3lbs higher and up in grade but ran a good race at Uttoxeter LTO behind Exxaro who was 3rd in a class 3 at Worcester on Wednesday.

    Good Luck with whatever you back,

    Greg

  7. non horse related.
    if anyone comes to Scarborough i can highly recommend Jeremys restaurant not cheap but the best in the area, had a great meal there last night before going on to see Emeli Sandé at SOAT celebrating our 38th anniversary, what a fantastic voice she has.

  8. Josh’s recent runners

    S 1.20 – Blue de Vega, 1st noted 9/6, on it’s 2nd run since today
    D 1.30 – Tilly Trotter, 1st noted 18/6 when a nr, 1st run since
    N 4.30 – Royale Django, 1st noted 8/5, on it’s 1st run since
    D 4.50 – Dalshand, 1st noted 18/6, ” ” ”
    plus a couple of fest tips
    D 2.40 Betty F on it’s 1st run since tipped
    W 7.35 – Ah Littleluck on it’s 2nd run since tipped
    Mike

  9. Another tough couple of days, a lot of nice prices placers with some being pipped at the post. Just need one to come through.

    Chris M Selections:
    16:05 Sandown – Melting Dew (10/3 gen)
    16:20 Doncaster – Mobham (15/2 gen)
    17:35 Bellewstown – Prove the Point (14/1 gen)
    18:15 Haydock – Juneau (3/1 gen)
    19:10 Beverley – Areen Heart (9/2 gen)
    19:30 Chelmsford – Strange Society (7/1 gen)
    20:05 Chelsmford – Spiced (33/1 gen) * Advised as 0.5pt EW
    20:20 Beverley – Claramara (5/1 gen)

    Good number of selection today, hopefully get a few nice winners!

  10. HAVE FUN IN MAGALUF .. GOULD KNOWZ I DID ABOUT 30 YEARS AGO …… CAN YOU DO SOME DETECTIVE WORK FOR ME …… 1/. IS THE PALMA NOVA BEACH HOTEL STILL THERE ?? 🙂 AND IS THE “ZIROS” BAR STILL GOING STRONG ( STILL HAVE THE MANDATORY BOUGHT ” ZIROS ” VEST IN THE WARDROBE ……… ARRHH THEY WERE THE DAYS ..NO RESPONSIBILITY !! 🙂 …. WENT THERE THE FIRST NIGHT ..AND THEN MET SOME GUYS FROM FLEETWOOD AND I DON’T REMEMBER TOO MUCH MORE OF THE HOLIDAY .. MAY AS WELL HAVE GONE TO THE ISLE OF WIGHT REALLY .. BUT THAT’S NOT THE POINT .. IT’S THE BEING THERE .. THAT COUNTS ! 🙂 HAVE FUN JOSH …ALTHOUGH THAT WILL BE UNAVOIDABLE !!
    I AM WELL JELL !!

    BC

  11. COLINS BETS
    6.15 Haydock Broken Force
    7.10 Beverley Viscount Loftus down in grade and Joe Fanning in the plate
    8.50 Beverley Our Little Pony

    Bets a little short in the betting but i have had to back them

  12. MR STRUTTER, 850 Beverley, 1pt each-way at 11-2 generally.

    This lad won 2 starts back over 5f where his Racing Post Topspeed of 60 compared to his rating then of 57. He runs off 62 today. Last time, he ran over 6f at Thirsk finishing 4th to Burtonwood and re-appears quickly.

    What leans me to backing him is his record on turf over 5f in this class, 1,2,1,4,1. From stall 4 I’m hoping he gets a lovely tow from Pearl Noir in 6. Jockey is 2 wins from 7 rides, 3 places in last 14 days.

    I thought Foxy Boy is getting dangerously well handicapped but trainer and jockey combo are 0/39 while it wouldnt surprise me to see Bondi Beach Boy run well first time for David Griffiths at a track he loves.

  13. I am on:
    NEWTON ABBOT
    1415
    Kentford Heiress 12/1 1p EW
    Amron Kali 22/1 1p EW

    1630
    Gorsky Island 12/1 1p EW
    Mont Parrain 25/1 1p EW

    -16.5 p so fare and mounting

  14. U.S. Racing tip – 9.23 Gulfstream Park (race 5), Coco Ioco. The market has not yet formed on Oddschecker yet so look later. Yesterdays selection was void.

  15. Three for tomorrow:

    Pouvoir Magique Sandown Saturday 12:55 1pt e/w Price available 17/2
    Squats Leicester Saturday 15:35 1pt e/w Price available 8/1
    Straightothepoint Carlisle Saturday 18:00 1pt e/w Price available 7/1

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