Members Daily Post: 03/07/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Brighton

2.00-  Noteworthy (micro TJC) H1 I3 G3 7/4 S2 S4 2nd 

2.30 – Stormbound (all hncps) 7/2UP

3.30 – Roy Rocket (all hncps) w1 H1 I3 6/4 S2 WON 6/4

5.00 – Jack Taylor (m TJC) w2 H1 I1 G3 5/6 S1 S2 S4 WON 5/6>8/13

 

Hamilton

3.45 – Balestra (3yo+, + m age) w2 H3 G3 5/2 S5 2nd 

5.15 – Griffin Street (m runs) 40/1 UP

 

Chepstow

6.15 – Briyouni (m class) 14 I3 14/1 UP

7.45 – Coachella (all hncps + 3yo+) w2 30 H3 I1 5/2 S2 UP

9.15 – Sir Pass I Am (4yo+ 5 yrs, 4yo+) ES+ 9/1 

 

JUMPS

Stratford

8.30 – Forever My Friend (hncp chase + m TJC) w2 14,30 H1 7/2 UP 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 14/160,55p, -4.7) (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +152)

 

NOTES

8.30 Strat- Forever My Friend – 1 point win – 7/2 (gen)

9.15 Chep – Sir Pass I Am – 1 point win – 9/1 (betfS/PP) 17/2 (bet365/UniB/BetV) 8/1 (gen)

that will be all for tips, 09.10, 

 

Forever My Friend… we’ll put that to the test today! Having had a good look at this race I thought 7/2 may still be a point too big here, given everything he has going for him. IF this ground is genuinely on the fast side, then he’s the only one in the race with handicap wins on going with firm in the going, and given the weather and time of race, even if they have over-watered, you’d think it will have dried out further. He arrives here bang in form having run well in hunter chases and only going down here narrowly LTO, when the ground was anything but good that day, the front two miles clear of the rest. Peter Bowen’s son trains their hunter-chasers, but they are all stabled at Peter’s and use the same facilities/gallops etc- so, for me, it isn’t really a trainer change. He is now below the mark he won from at the track last summer, stays further, and races prominently – I think Sean can dictate this race if he wishes too, and put his jumping experience/course form/extra stamina to good use. I just thought he looked solid against this lot. Some in here want it softer I think, and the Snowden and Lacey horses may just lack the chasing experience- although both unexposed in this sphere. They have both only won 2/3 runner chases to date and this will be a different test- I wouldn’t put anyone off a saver, to cover stakes, on Exitas   who does look interesting at the odds given his chasing form a few months back, and he arrives in some sort of form. But, he is on a career high mark, the jockey has never ridden him and has yet to place on his 6 rides at the track. There is also a slight stamina niggle but I think he should be fine. Anyway, despite his advancing years, to my eyes the selection is the one they all have to beat and i’d be disappointed if he isn’t in contention jumping the last here, hopefully a few lengths ahead. For a 7/2 shot in a handicap chase, he looks as solid as they come to my eyes, in race conditions.

Sir Pass I Am – If my memory is correct I tipped this one at 9s or so when he was well backed and won here over CD last May. He could have won that by 15l if ridden out to the line and I think there are valid excuses for all of his runs since. I suspect he needed his return at Doncaster in a C4 and then he was pitched into a C2 at Chester, which was too hot for him and no doubt the track may have been tight enough. He drops back into a C5 here. Murphy jumps back on for the first time in three runs, having ridden him when winning here, and in a race that lacks any out and out front runners on paper, I wondered whether he may try and take this from the front. In any case he should be in the right spot, no excuses. There was a run at Windsor over too short which suggested GF is fine, and in these conditions he is still unexposed. He is only one of two horses to have ran at the course and the only one to have won. That could count for something around here, and Balding’s string are going a bit better than they have been. Of course, it could just be that he’s out of sorts but I  thought there was just enough juice in his price. If he drifts markedly i’ll know my fate. If you were still running him into form I don’t know why you’d bring him back to this CD, and indeed put Murphy back on. He could still have a bit in hand when it all clicks again. The dangers… well, in truth, I nearly bottled tipping him simply for fear of the favourite,Circling Moon  as he has a massive GG speed figure compared to this lot and is in decent form. If he repeats his penultimate start then he may be the one to beat. Maybe the trip was too short LTo but i’m not sure, given he won over 12f 3 starts back, and he does need to bounce back here. But, Murtagh’s UK raiders often go close.I wasn’t sure this race would be run to suit either, it could turn into a relative dash. I didn’t think there was much else in this…well, the Haggas horse is interesting but short enough given the stamina unknown, but could clearly relish it. They put CP on which would concern me a tad, as they clearly think he needs some help. I wont be shocked if he went well. I thought the Prescott horse was just a slow boat on the evidence to date, but maybe that will be enough and he may appreciate this track. With any luck the selection runs up to his best, and returns to the form of his demolition job here last May, as if he does then he’s considerably overpriced.

I am loving a placed horse at the moment, and could do with one hitting the back of the net.

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Recent Tips(TEST,from section 2/’notes’ horses) 

(running total, from 07/06/18: 4/39,14p, -0.5) 

None today.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

D McCain (14/1< guide)

8.00 Strat – Good Tradition 9/4 WON 13/8 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

7.30 Strat – Royal Plaza 9/4

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

NTF Summer Stunners…

There was some chat in the comments RE Ben Aitken’s free report looking at those Jumpers who’ve performed well in the summer months. This was only available to those on his free email list, which you can join HERE>>>, (his freebies are some of the best) but with his permission you can read this report directly HERE>>>  Ben’s currently sunning himself in the US, and I think I ruined his day when informing him of Dreamsoftheatre’s evening price!

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

22 Comments

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  • Ventura Knight Hamilton Tuesday 15:45 1pt e/w-Price available 10/1-We backed VK 2 starts ago at a nice price and he is only 3lbs up for that win. That race has worked out well with the 2nd placing in a class 2 and than winning a class 3 and the 5th also won NTO. He was never put into the race at Royal Ascot LTO and this is much easier. He gets a massive 9lbs from all bar one of the field for the weight of age allowance. He will love the fast ground and whilst he is flexible in how he can be ridden I am hoping given the lack of pace PJ takes him up front. PJ is 2/2 on the horse.
    Illustrious Spirit Brighton Tuesday 14:00 1.5pt win-Price available 9/1-This one is a little speculative however there are plenty of reasons to be confident. He has been running over 1m+ in his career but by breeding he looks to be crying out for a chance at sprinting and drops down to 6f here which I think will be ideal. They put the blinkers on here and Luke Morris who is one of the best riders at Brighton is on for the first time. He also has a great record when riding for Watson even if most of the runs are on the AW. Another who gets a weight for age allowance over half the field.

    Nick Mazur 02/07/18 8:31 PM Reply


    • bang we are off and running, tremendous work

      Paul Ebrey 03/07/18 3:48 PM Reply


      • Cheers once again Nick, went with a nice big ew go here. Great stuff

        Max H 03/07/18 3:57 PM Reply


    • Nicely done Nick. Went off 9/2! Great tipping.
      Hugh

      alpha2 03/07/18 3:59 PM Reply


    • I had 10/1 VK. Was there a rule 4? Well done again.

      Also did the bottles turn up? I got a text about the delivery van being delayed.

      Cheers Martin

      martin colwell 03/07/18 4:27 PM Reply


      • 5p at most so depends on the bookie although Corals might have done you for 10p.

        Yeah arrived today thanks.

        Nick Mazur 03/07/18 4:46 PM Reply


  • todays qualifier,
    5-15 Hamilton. Imperial Legend 8-1

    martin whittle 03/07/18 1:28 AM Reply


  • A 2/1 winner and a loser from my 2 trial picks on Monday.

    Tuesday …

    8.30 Stratford : Forever My Friend @ 7/2 BOG
    9.15 Chepstow : Circling Moon @ 9/4 BOG

    traf69 03/07/18 2:13 AM Reply


  • Tenth bet on the starting point chasers will be 1%, £10, on Royal Plaza 730 Stratford.

    chrisrees 03/07/18 7:40 AM Reply


    • Lost

      chrisrees 04/07/18 5:13 AM Reply


  • Running total: -2 points

    8.45 Chepstow: Timoshenko @ 9/2 2 points win

    9.00 Stratford: Noah and the Ark @ 7/2 2 points win

    Francis 03/07/18 8:03 AM Reply


    • I’ve a small share in Timoshenko and this is a starting point as he needs 14f+; Sir Mark expects him to be beaten but to run well.

      chrisrees 03/07/18 9:03 AM Reply


      • Nice one Chris, hope you have lots of fun with him in due course.

        Francis 03/07/18 9:50 AM Reply


      • Sir Mark strikes me as a conservative sort of person and so we shall see how he goes but he seems to have some market support at present. Good luck.

        martin colwell 03/07/18 3:03 PM Reply


        • I liked him due to the record of Archipenko progeny first time out as 3 year olds. Speculative but given the trainer I thought was worth the risk.

          Francis 03/07/18 5:03 PM Reply


      • Perfect example why you should never trust what a trainer says. Either they’re intentionally not telling the truth or they are far worse judges than a winning punter. I am hoping Prescott useless as opposed to the latter. One reason I stay clear of any info.

        Nick Mazur 03/07/18 9:01 PM Reply


  • Tips – 9.15 CHP Galileo’s Spear, 2 points each way at 11/2 (If we drop to less than 8 runners just 2 points win). Part of the Prescott and Morris team that travels to Chepstow. The horse was staying on LTO over this distance and looks solid in this class.

    On Sunday we made a marginal profit with a place. Good luck.

    martin colwell 03/07/18 8:38 AM Reply


  • Got to be quick today…sorry.
    Balestra / First Flight 15:45 HamiltonPark (2pt win each).
    Tallys son / Barista 19:45 Chepstow.
    1pt ew both.

    Good luck in whatever you back today!

    Stewart 03/07/18 8:53 AM Reply


  • Chris M Selections:
    14:45 Hamilton – Wheres Jeff (7/4 gen)
    15:30 Brighton – Roy Rocket (6/4 gen)
    20:15 Chepstow – Guardiola (3/1 gen)

    Good luck with your bets

    Chris M 03/07/18 9:23 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Brighton
    2.00 Noteworthy
    2.30 Global Wonder
    3.30 Roy Rocket
    Hamilton
    2.45 Where’s Jeff
    4.15 Be Perfect
    5.15 Etienne Gerrard
    Chepstow
    6.15 Harry Beau
    8.15 Final Rock

    colin leafe 03/07/18 9:36 AM Reply


  • I’m on
    Barista 20/1
    1945 Chepstow
    1p Win
    so fare
    -12.5 p

    Maz 03/07/18 11:08 AM Reply


  • well done nick a lovely 10/1 winner,much appreciated

    william 03/07/18 4:08 PM Reply


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