Members Daily Post: 02/07/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Pontefract

2.00 –

Round The Island (all hncps) w1 H3 G3 11/4 S5 UP

Cameo Star (micro class move) w1 H3 5/1 UP

3.00 –

Penny Pot Lane (all hncps) I3 12/1 UP

Silver Starlight (m going/age) 10/1 UP

4.30 – Storm Ahead (3yo+, + m TJC/Going) ES+ H1 I1 4/1 S1 S3A#

 

Windsor

6.00 – Sister Celine (all hncps 5 yrs, all) 14,30 ES+ 7/2 S3A  2nd 6/1

7.30 – Ice Age (m dist) w2 H3 I1 G3 2/1 S2 S4 S5  WON 2/1>7/4 

9.00 – Arendelle (all hncps 5 yrs, all) ES+ H3 G1 4/1 S2 S3A# WON 4/1>2/1

 

Hamilton

6.15 –

Miss DD (all hncps) H3 9/2 UP

Bop It (all hncps) 14 I3 G3  12/1 

7.45 –

Jabbaar (all hncps) w2 H1 I3 10/3 S2 UP

Donnachies Girl (m runs) H3 I1 G3 13/2 S2 S4 S5 S6 UP

8.15 – Corton Lad (m runs) ES+ H1 I1 G3  5/2 S1 S2 S3A# S4 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 14/159,54p, -3.7) (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +152)

NOTES 

9.15 Hamilton- Alexandrakollontai – 1 point win – 6/1 (bet365/888 sport) 11/2 (gen) 2nd, no excuse, sadly winner got uncontested lead which i didn’t expect, and was there pace pressure may have made a  difference but winner a bit in hand come the line. Was upsides at one point, confidence misplaced.

that will be all for tips, 09.30…

Well i’ll be blunt, and put my neck on the line… for a 6s shot I think i’m as bullish as I can be. Well, the only thing missing is the fact this one isn’t a lone front runner and instead is usually held up, which is always a risk, but on paper appears to be very solid to my eye. When I write 1 point above 99% of the time I back them to one point. I’ve doubled up on this one and placed 2 points on it and you can use that info as you please..given my iffy notes form you may take it as a hint to reduce stakes to 1/2 a point!! 🙂 The betting gods will no doubt slap down my confidence but this one caught the eye LTO 4 days ago, when a previous strategy qualifier (S1 maybe, I forget, but I backed her)… she was held up too far back in a race not run to suit where the lone front runner dictated and stayed there. She did however make an interesting move from 3-1f to my eye, somewhat motoring for a time- however she’d been left with too much to do and flattened out. But, I thought it was an interesting run and a sign she was coming back to form. She drops from that C4 into a C5 here and gets an extra 5lb off her back, from a jockey who’s riding well/in some sort of form. It’s her first run over 8f in a C5 since her last turf win last summer, where she won off 68 (with the claim) – she runs off 61 here with CMs 5lb. Undoubtedly she is well handicapped to strike. Last November she ran a close 2nd off 82 on the Newcastle AW. Before that she’d run a respectable 3rd in a Newmarket C2 off 76. When it all clicks again and she is put into the right race, she’s going to win well I suspect. I’ve concluded today is that day. Her record when returning within 10 days of her last start, in the last 5 years, is 5/18,9p in turf handicaps, 4/10,6p on good to firm, 2/4 in class 5. I also though the two at the top of the market were worth taking on…now Johnston’s may improve for the blinkers/race conditions, but is now 0/13 in his career and has questions to answer. No doubt there’s ability somewhere and if the blinkers work he may have plenty in hand. With any luck Joe doesn’t get an easy time on the front here… I thought there was potentially more pace than LTO, with the odd front runner and more ‘pace pushers’. In any case, the drop in class should allow her to take a handy position and she’s not exactly headstrong so I have no idea why they ride her so cold at times. Unless of course a bucket load of money is about to come for her, ahem! So, the fav is worth taking on at the prices. The second fav steps up from a C6 to a C5, a level where he’s 0/7,0p to date. Maybe he’ll notch his first win in the class, but to my eyes, these two have made this one a bigger price than she should be, in the context of this race. The trainer could do with being in better form, but the horse ran 4 days ago as if she was in form, going forward in the latter stages of the race, not folding out the back of the tv. This looks like her easiest opportunity for quite some time, esp over 8f which appears to be her trip these days. Anyway, that’s the method to my madness and all of that together has made me quietly confident. Time will tell whether that’s misplaced or not!

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Muggy Multiples… elsewhere…there are a few of interest on the strategies front, but the prices seem short/about right to my eyes… A fun treble of Storm Ahead / Ice Age and Corton Lad pays around 50/1, and i’ve had some beer money on that just for interest. I have also backed Ice Age and Corton Lad in a double at around 9/1, as both will try and make all, and with any luck will stay there. Again, only for fun money, it’s rare for such bets to come in from me, but adds some interest at least.

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Recent Tips(TEST,from section 2/’notes’ horses) 

(running total, from 07/06/18: 4/38,14p, +0.5) 

Correction…

3.00 Ponte – Silver Starlight (1st run) UP

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

73 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Nothing from me on what looks like the worst day of racing for about 3 months.

    Nick Mazur 01/07/18 9:31 PM Reply


  • So Nick says the racing is rubbish tomorrow, that’s fine by me. I’ve had the best week ever regarding my bank roll increasing which is also fine by me. So maybe some of the more experienced bank roll managers could help me with some of their advice.
    I started betting properly last October and religiously used Betfair because I found I didn’t have time to manage multiple accounts and found it too time consuming trying to put on my bets at tea break at work, it’s also pretty difficult trying to do it on a phone with less than perfect eyesight whilst trying to refuel. I follow Josh, Nick, sp2a and one other service.
    I’ve done a fair amount of e/w doubles and trebles on my Sky account recently to take advantage of the extra places which has seen the balance go up rapidly by 10 fold.
    I’ve had a little dabble on the casino with no joy at all and some random football bets that bombed out also in an attempt to avoid getting flagged up.
    I want to withdraw a chunk of the balance to enjoy which is why we bet isn’t it? But I’m worried about getting restricted if this carries on.
    My thinking is that if I get myself a decent laptop with all my automated spreadsheets on for work I could manage more accounts efficiently whilst stuffing my face with a bacon sandwich at the same time ultimately reducing restrictions and closures, but maybe increasing my chances of heart disease or indigestion.
    So my main question is how much and how often should I withdraw cash without getting flagged up? Is 500 safe is 1000 or 2000 safe? Or am I ok to do as I please because I’m doing random football and casino bets to make myself look like a random gambler?
    Sorry if I’m being dumb about this but I’ve always stuck to Betfair in the past to avoid these kind of problems but now I see that betting e/w isn’t always the greatest on Betfair. I could do win only but I’ve had a steadier ride with e/w, the brilliant Ian and team at sp2a have converted me!
    While I’m dishing out praise, a massive thanks to Nick and Josh for helping me get to a point where I can hopefully push on a little now that they have helped me build a decent betting bank from virtually nothing (around £80 I think). Also some fantastic posts from the people here on the blog that give wonderful insights on the different ways to skin a cat!
    I am slightly over the moon with the way things have gone recently and it would be great for anyone to help me put my feet back on the ground with some good advice! Cheers guys.

    Chris Albin 01/07/18 10:39 PM Reply


    • When you say Betfair are you referring to Betfair Sportsbook or Betfair Exchange? I’m suspecting you’re using the exchange for a couple of reasons. The each way market is usually a bit shorter priced than the win market which I think you referred to in your post and Sportsbook are very quick to restrict profitable accounts so they would have probably limited you already with the amount you’ve won. If so withdraw whatever you like as it’s very rare for exchange accounts to be closed. Correct me if I’m wrong but accounts with very high turnover/profit can be hit with higher commission charges but other than that I’ve only ever heard of one person losing a Betfair Exchange account and they refused to explain why so it can’t have been anything that showed them in a positive light.

      In terms of casino offers, there’s a formula for working out which ones offer any potential value and a matched betting community would be the place to read about that. Even then there’s no guarantees.

      jamiem 01/07/18 10:53 PM Reply


      • I’m referring to my Skybet account with the view to moving forward and opening more accounts which if I remember correctly from older posts on here it’s a good idea to mix it up a bit to look like a random gambler. I can’t stand roulette but I’m willing to spend £20 now and again if it keeps me under the radar!
        When I mention Betfair I do mean the exchanges as I’m aware of it being realistically impossible to be closed down on the exchange. I’ve had a brief look at the ridiculous commission rates for the high turnover accounts but thankfully I’m not near that yet ( I think its around 250k). I’ve withdrawn a couple of times from Betfair in the past without problems like you say.
        I think the main problem for me is now that I’ve changed to mostly e/w betting is that a lot of the time the place market is often not as good as one fifth the price on the win market on Sky and when you consider the extra place and sometimes 2 places it makes it less valuable.
        I have a lot of success with multiple combination doubles and trebles and those extra places are invaluable at times. They are not the core of my betting but they certainly help. This is something I’ve done for a while albeit for small stakes but the place side reduces the losses and occasionally a really big win comes in and it adds a fun element to betting. It certainly helps having the tips/services that I’ve mentioned on your side knowing they get close to the mark enough of the time to help it make a profit. It’s not something I do every day though.

        Chris Albin 01/07/18 11:30 PM Reply


        • I used Skybet for the SP2A trial and they soon restricted my stakes when the tips started to win. I could usually get £5 e/w on up to about 12/1 but less on the bigger priced tips. Strangely they didn’t remove BOG which I expected to lose before being stake restricted.

          jamiem 02/07/18 12:01 AM Reply


        • Exchanges are not good for multiples. I trade on the exchanges and use four; Betfair, Matchbook, Betdaq and Smarkets to get max value. You can split your screen and view all four, although it is best to have a large monitor. I have to pay a premium on Betfair of 7% but the others range between 2 and 5%.
          In terms of multiples, random betting shops are best due to the disengagement of their staff in checking what you are doing.
          I have had over 25 different online accounts. I am part restricted on Bet365 and Coral and William Hill, not restricted on Star Sports and Black Type and restricted fully on the others. I do spread bets around these sources but mainly on exchanges.
          You can play a bit of roulette, slots etc but the algorithm usually picks you up anyway.

          As you work and so have limited time you could go with say 5 accounts and then just get another new one if you get restricted?

          I can manage it by doing all of this but I would struggle to do so if I had to go to work as well.

          Good luck.

          martin colwell 02/07/18 9:31 AM Reply


      • I lost my Betfair account because after a dispute with Paddy Power over a rule 4, I had a minor fit telling them to stick their account & Duely closed it. Next thing I know I had an email saying because I’d closed PP my Betfair account was also closed. I ve tried several times to re- open B/F but they say 2022 before they will entertain it.

        keef7149 01/07/18 11:41 PM Reply


    • There’s no consistent reason why bookies close accounts that I can see. I was just comparing two accounts tonight with the same bookmaker. One made a loss of £30 and was closed after a month. The other was only closed after almost a year, and that was with a profit of over £10k and lots of big withdrawals. So I wouldn’t be worried about withdrawing money.

      Setting up lots of new accounts, and taking advantage of the signup offers might be a good next step. That should make you a bit of extra money, and it’ll mean you can choose the best prices available for your bets rather than just using the couple of bookies you’ve got.

      neilmck 01/07/18 11:04 PM Reply


      • That sounds bizarre that one account was closed after a month and was making a loss!
        Was it because of the types of bets placed? Purely horse bets, win or e/w? Was there a big turnover which looked like it could turn into a big profit in the future?
        I actually opened a few accounts several years ago on the back of Bonus Bagging which was ok to a point and then became tedious and time consuming so I may have burnt my bridges with a few bonuses there!

        Chris Albin 01/07/18 11:43 PM Reply


      • Not many bookies allow multiple accounts and they use an array of tactics to detect accounts they think are from the same person. Most only allow only one account per household so if your IP address is used to access two accounts they usually notice.

        jamiem 02/07/18 12:04 AM Reply


    • Take the advice of the pro punters blog on SP2A . His method of withdrawing cash without restrictions is simple and I’ve used it several times without mishap. He says the bookies computers flag up withdrawals & to override this what you do is,say you want £300, you withdraw £400, then straight away deposit £100 back into the account. Theory is the computers like deposits and so they don’t flag up the withdrawal. All to do with their algorithms, he reckons.

      keef7149 01/07/18 11:52 PM Reply


      • Probably best not to post any details from those articles on here.

        neilmck 02/07/18 8:27 AM Reply


        • Oh i’m sure Ian won’t mind the odd detail like that haha, he’ll tell me if he does! But yep all those excellent articles are a members’ privilege so we won’t go repeating them all/details etc.
          Josh

          Josh 02/07/18 8:37 AM Reply


    • Can you not do some hefty bets on skybet and lay them Betfair exchange in the hope they lose? Then your money will transfer into Betfair and you can withdraw from there

      Danny Binks 02/07/18 12:17 AM Reply


      • But then they win…

        neilmck 02/07/18 8:28 AM Reply


    • back in febuary sp2a published a number of articles by Alan a pro punter which included how to keep of bookies radar,withdrawels/deposits etc , i’m sure if you ask Ian he would send you a link to them.

      martin whittle 02/07/18 1:28 AM Reply


      • I am not sure I agreed all of what was said in that article. I would say that bookmakers are different and so there is no golden rule. I do think the idea of regular deposits and only one withdrawal a month works OK. I would say that if you do not need the money now then do not make a withdraw. Most high profile bookmaker is not going out of business without due warning and you will always be able to get your money. I would sooner withdraw thousands rather than hundreds.

        martin colwell 02/07/18 9:40 AM Reply


  • Forgot to mention T Easterby has been flying recently with all sorts of prices going in as most of you will have noted, just in case you haven’t he has 4 on Monday. I’ll back the first one to cue the barren spell as it hits my systems (that’s how it works isn’t it?), the last one hits too but is too short for me.

    3.00 Pontefract Silver Starlight
    3.30 Pontefract Contrebasse
    3.45 Wolverhampton Supaulette (IRE)
    4.30 Pontefract Storm Ahead (IRE)

    Chris Albin 01/07/18 11:01 PM Reply


  • AW results:
    w/c 25 June: Staked 29pts, Profit 9.99pts, ROI 34.43% or £49.93 to £5 stakes. This includes 24.99pts from yesterday when I adopted a slightly different strategy.

    June: Staked 87pts, Profit 16.29pts, ROI 18.72% or £81.43 to £5 stakes.

    Since 12 Dec: Staked 959pts, Profit 107.14pts, ROI 11.17% or £535.70 to £5 stakes.

    AW racing comes from Wolves tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    2.15 Toriano 9/2
    3.45 Peggie Sue 13/2 & Erastus 10/1
    4.15 Coal Stock 16/1
    4.45 Gift of Hera 4/1

    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 01/07/18 11:02 PM Reply


  • No edit button yet? I’ll back the FIRST one NOT the last one. The last one is too short for me

    Chris Albin 01/07/18 11:04 PM Reply


    • Ha, well I can edit! 🙂 (and have done)…I don’t like the idea of people editing their own comments for a few reasons, but unless a new comment is posted, no one would know the content had changed etc- esp if you detailed wrong horse, etc.

      Josh 02/07/18 8:41 AM Reply


  • Thought I’d give you a note on the two free systems I’ve followed over the weekend.

    Flat Jockey Profits (recommended by Josh)
    Fri-Sun – 34 bets/13 wins/19 places (inc wins)
    Profit 27.55pts based on 1pt win up to 10/1 and 0.5ew 11/1+ at the odds taken/BOG.

    Most of the profit came from the Ryan Moore/Adrian O’Brien combo but there were also winners for James Doyle, Adam Kirby, Oisin Murphy & Daniel Tudhope. OK it’s only one weekend but is looks promising. Certainly boosted my coffers.

    The other system is NTF’s NH Summer Stunners
    I’ve only placed one bet and it turned out to be a 17/2 ew winner. I went ew as there were a couple of things which didn’t totally fit the profile in the notes.

    Obviously one winner doesn’t make a winning system but I will follow it and post qualifiers here (time permitting) from time to time.

    I tried to post the links to each system but it doesn’t seem to like that. Maybe Josh could oblige?

    Ken McKenzie 01/07/18 11:09 PM Reply


    • Hi Ken,

      Yep any comments with links in etc need my approval haha…

      I need to check with Ben that he just gave his away on free blog? I don’t like sharing stuff where the condition of receiving the excellent PDFs was to join a free email list (which you can unsubscribe from) and it’s not fair on Kieran or Ben if we just go round freely sharing links to direct downloads etc. I’ll ask them if they mind, they probably won’t,but that’s the game 🙂 Suspect the Flat jockeys one will be a good ‘way in’…always wary of systematic approaches with jockeys given how much can change etc but it was a decent freebie and seems to have started well.

      Josh

      Josh 02/07/18 8:19 AM Reply


      • No problem Josh. I’m not a member of NTF but I’m on his email list. I received it from Ben on 31 May.

        Ken McKenzie 02/07/18 9:38 AM Reply


        • Mmmm – I’m not sure that you should be quoting returns from a system when you are not following the system, especially when the majority of the profit, as you say, has come from an angle which isn’t actually recommended. Apologies if that sounds pedantic, I like the system although it probably throws up a few too many qualifiers for me to use personally.

          johnnyb 02/07/18 12:58 PM Reply


          • Ok fair enough. It isn’t the main recommendation but it clearly highlights the RM/AO’B in a separate box as a profitable angle but I’ll remember to make it clear next time.

            Ken McKenzie 02/07/18 3:25 PM Reply


    • Hi Ken,

      If it’s Kieran Ward’s Flat Jockey Profits System to which you are referring (I suspect it is) he doesn’t actually recommend backing all Ryan Moore’s rides for A P O’Brien although he gives it a strong mention. The recommendation is to back all Ryan’s rides at Chelmsford.

      I have been following the Summer Stunners since 1st June and the record is 3/7 to date with one of the others 3rd at 20/1.

      johnnyb 02/07/18 12:17 PM Reply


      • Yes, I saw the recommendation re. Ryan Moore but the profits for RM/AO’B were almost as good to SP and better for BSP so seemed reasonable to give it a go.

        Ken McKenzie 02/07/18 12:23 PM Reply


  • The common factor in getting your account restricted (I was talking to a Betfair employee) is if you consistently beat SP prices regardless of results. In other words if you take a price the night before then you risk getting restricted even if you lose.

    geoffwylde 02/07/18 12:20 AM Reply


    • Maybe? Not my experience but I am just one. The night before thing may be a bit of an old wives tale? I think that it is a mix of things that flags on that bookmakers software. Just open accounts, bet and if you are restricted move on to another one etc etc.
      Plenty more fish in the sea.

      martin colwell 02/07/18 9:45 AM Reply


      • On that point…I’ve had PP, BV, Betway & Boyles restricted on the basis I was consistently beating SP. BV took away BOG but that a/c was in profit – the other 3 are closed but both were behind overall. PP only marginally but I had that a/c for +10yrs from my mug days betting footy accums and the likes.

        Joe H 02/07/18 2:49 PM Reply


  • Laptop been playing up, so, haven`t been able to post.
    here are today’s.
    17:15 Wolverhampton
    CELTIC ARTISAN 6/1 gen 1pt ew
    SIR LANCELOTT 12/1 gen (although disappearing quickly) 1pt ew

    18:15 Hamilton
    EPEIUS 11/2 1pt ew
    BOP IT 12/1 1pt ew

    Good luck with whatever you back today.

    Stewart 02/07/18 7:56 AM Reply


    • i own a very small share in Sir Lancelott, and it may well be members’ money going onto it although I dont think there is any coup as such.

      However, he was 14s and 12s last night which looked too big. Hes 1lb above his last winning mark, good draw in 4, plenty of pace and a good jockey booking, so we are hopeful of a top 4 position. He’s missed the break last twice however.

      Paul Ebrey 02/07/18 10:06 AM Reply


    • 2nd/3rd and the lucky last…I`ll take that!! 11/2 this morning, happy with that!

      Stewart 02/07/18 6:24 PM Reply


  • no qualifiers.

    martin whittle 02/07/18 8:12 AM Reply


  • Just to confirm there are no recent ‘notes’ out today,
    however there are a couple of ‘fest tips’ having their second run.
    P 3.00 – Silvers Starlight
    W 7.30 – Ice Age

    Titus 02/07/18 8:55 AM Reply


    • Oh yes,missed one there…
      Silver Starlight was a notes tip LTO, not a Festival tip…not sure if you have the odd one recorded in wrong place haha- two sections within section 2 on that day’s post, there were some ‘notes’ tips of which he was one, and then some Festival Tips from Ascot below that.
      I need to update my tracker today! not yet in that habit.
      Josh

      Josh 02/07/18 10:02 AM Reply


      • ah, so it is. Recorded correctly on fag packet when put bet on but not in tracker ah ha
        Mike

        Titus 02/07/18 10:58 AM Reply


  • Chris M Selections:
    16:30 Pontefract – Storm Ahead (4/1 gen)
    19:30 Windsor – Ice Age (2/1 gen)
    19:45 Hamilton – Jabbaar (4/1 Lads, 10/3 gen)

    All from me today, results from last week to follow. Some bleak reading but onwards and upwards.

    Chris M 02/07/18 9:01 AM Reply


    • A week of two half’s, first half I just could not find winners and looked like a terrible week but the second half saved a red face by clawing some points back.

      Re-Cap w/c 25/6/18:
      48 bets – 10 winners and 1 N/R
      S/R: 21.27 %
      ROI: -23.89%
      P/L: -11.23 pts

      Overall:
      86 bets – 19 winnners and 2 N/R
      S/R: 22.09 %
      ROI: -12.09 %
      P/L: -10.4 pts

      Bleak reading at the moment, hopefully continue the form I was coming into in the second half of last week. Plenty of winners last week but unfortunately the majority low odds, a few big ones came close so I know I am not a mile off.

      Chris M 02/07/18 10:25 AM Reply


  • I’ve lost several accounts, when the bookies have put 2 and 2 together and informed that my “day job” was incompatible with being a client of theirs.

    As my own business (aside from running a subscription tipping service and writing SotD on Geegeez) is actually a travel agency, I did cheekily ask if travel agents weren’t allowed to bet, but they weren’t having any of it! 😉

    traf69 02/07/18 9:06 AM Reply


    • Those bookmakers that ask me what i do I say that I am retired, which in theory I am as I am not employed. Seems to have worked with a few of them. Where I spread bets around my volumes are not too bad with one, which I think helps.

      martin colwell 02/07/18 9:48 AM Reply


      • Have you had them ask for proof of funds or anything like that Martin? One of my friends was contented recently by someone on behalf of BlackType who actually worked for a mob called FSB.

        They were contacting him because his deposits across all their sites exceeded a certain amount. Now I’d need to do some digging through the terms and conditions, but I’m not sure we’ve agreed that information can be shared in this way.

        When you look at the FSB website it lists their clients, and includes PP and Betfair.

        neilmck 02/07/18 12:30 PM Reply


        • I do get contacted by bookmakers and exchanges and they ask me nosey questions in the disguise of ‘surveys’. I think that they think I am a retired guy with not much to do and a few quid to bet with as they can see the times I post bets on sites. Some ask why I am retired at 58 but I just tell them a story, which varies, which they seem to mostly accept. They sometimes ask why I have not made a withdraw when I have four figures plus on my account with them. I just say I do not need it so why bother, although I do sometimes need it obviously. Like I said above bets to withdraw in bigger chunks less often I find.

          I seem to hover under the radar thanks to spreading it around different sources each day in a disciplined manner.

          martin colwell 02/07/18 12:49 PM Reply


          • Ah I haven’t had one of the surveys yet. Not sure how I’m going to explain being ‘retired’ at 39!

            neilmck 02/07/18 2:35 PM Reply


    • Hi Chris, I follow SotD, so firstly many thanks and keep up the great work..
      If you are happy to share, I just wanted to ask you where you start…? Are you looking for a particular race type, of field size etc or do you look at all races…
      Thanks, Matt

      Matt Porter 02/07/18 12:32 PM Reply


      • Thanks, Matt, nice to hear a bit of support : I’m getting a bit of a kicking from certain elements of my readers.

        Re: SotD, I’m not giving much away, of course, but generally…
        No Novice races, no maidens, no races where more than a quarter of the field haven’t run before and no races with more than 14 runners.

        Most of my relative “success” comes in low-grade (C5/6) handicaps and I tend to leave the headline races to those like Josh & Nick amongst others who seem to have a better handle on it.

        traf69 03/07/18 2:20 AM Reply


        • There are a lot of people who are trying to make a quick buck and then complain when they don’t win every time… Betting should be about fun and having a strategy that will give you a return over the long term.. SotD certainly delivers this and RTP also delivers on the fun and winning…
          Ignore the trolls and keep doing what you do as there are far more people out there that appreciate it and that don’t… it’s just moaners are louder!!
          Take care and good luck!!

          Matt Porter 03/07/18 9:50 AM Reply


  • As suggested now by Josh, Titus & Chris M, I’m also in the Ice Age camp for the 7.30 (4133411 over C&D)

    traf69 02/07/18 9:09 AM Reply


  • In fact, let me try something for a month here.
    If it works, I’ll explain more.
    If it doesn’t, we’ll quietly forget all about it 😉

    So, last night, I backed…

    7.30 Windsor – Ice Age @ 9/4 BOG
    9.00 Windsor – Harlequin Striker @ 7/2 BOG

    Chris

    traf69 02/07/18 9:14 AM Reply


  • I am on
    1745 Wolverhampton
    Mount Cheiron 33/1 0.5p EW
    Good luck to all of you.

    Maz 02/07/18 9:40 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    June SP – 20.81 Bookmaker SP
    BOG + 10.35 wonder why bookmakers put on restrictions

    Pontefract
    3.00 Brockholes
    Wolverhampton
    3.15 Bbob Alula
    3.45 Billy Booth
    Windsor
    7.00 Espiscia
    9.00 Chetan

    colin leafe 02/07/18 9:59 AM Reply


  • Bookmakers do what they want and getting away with it.
    There is one rule that I hate the most.
    Its rule 4 deduction for non runners.
    When we back a horse day or any longer time before, we take a gamble with for example going conditions. If the going goes wrong way we lost before the race started or when the horse falls. My point is when the bookies set the prices and therefore attracts by a price, that’s their gamble. If there is several non runers and our horse win, than we get the price slashed. Sorry they took a gamble and lost so should accept price taken. Most of the time they win anyway.

    Naz 02/07/18 10:34 AM Reply


    • I agree to some extent but I’d be happy if we were at least given the option to cancel a bet once the no. of runners changes. With push notifications it should be possible to within 30 mins of the race. That way you at least have a choice.

      I suspect there are a no. of reasons why this would be a non-starter (pun intended!) but I also get frustrated by R4’s and I think it should be changed in some way that is fairer to the punter.

      Ken McKenzie 02/07/18 12:41 PM Reply


      • I don’t have a problem with R4 generally, but I think that’s a great point by Ken. It would be nice to have the option to cancel a bet in the event of NRs or maybe something like a jockey change.

        I do think there should be some changes though. I remember a Geegeez article a couple of years ago about bookies manipulating the prices just after a NR had been declared, and maybe it should be a standard industry wide deduction for NRs rather than basing it on the specific bookies odds.

        neilmck 02/07/18 1:22 PM Reply


  • spare 1/2 hour so i’ve picked my favourite 4 from section 1 and done them in a £1 win lucky 15, possible return £647
    4.30 Pontefract – Storm Ahead 4-1
    7.30 Windsor – Ice Age 2-1
    9.00 Windsor – Arendelle 4-1
    8.15 Hamilton – Corton Lad 5-2

    martin whittle 02/07/18 12:14 PM Reply


  • Naz – I’m very suspicious over the frequency of non-runners in 8 horse races

    David Wilson 02/07/18 12:42 PM Reply


    • You’ve hit the nail on the head!! It’s uncanny the number of times it happens

      Peter

      pjacks 02/07/18 12:49 PM Reply


  • Tips – Not much today. 3.00 Pon Denham 20 win and 6.15 Ham Miss Dd 15 each way. Cannot be bothered with anything else.

    Off down the site with rubbish to recycle now. Life in the fast lane.

    martin colwell 02/07/18 1:00 PM Reply


  • Some of this has already been mentioned but these are some of the rules I follow with regards to bookmakers:
    1) Avoid betting the night before where their liability exceeds £250
    2) Always bet using round numbers
    3) Withdraw once a month and only around 30-40% of your balance max. Again I would withdraw round numbers like £500 instead of an odd number.
    4) Do not use any free tipsters who have a large following.
    5) Split your bets where you can
    6) Do not back anything over 33/1 the night before and avoid putting any bets on before 6PM ideally later.
    7) Try and avoid taking the best price when one bookie is considerably bigger than the others
    8) I am not sure whether it makes a difference but I seem to have much more luck keeping accounts longer recently by avoiding to use wifi.

    Nick Mazur 02/07/18 1:04 PM Reply


    • Very interesting comment Nick.
      Rule 2 Always bet using round numbers.
      I must admit I am puzzled

      Maz 02/07/18 1:10 PM Reply


      • Well it’s about triggering systems isn’t it? I assume… not betting round numbers may indicate you’re following some sort of % staking plan and as such may be a ‘wise punter’ with a certain useful approach…it could indicate you are arbing etc? and odd figures in relation to laying off etc. Or indicates you are betting to win a specific amount at odds. I’m just thinking mind, as to reasons why bookies wouldn’t like it,and what it may indicate as to your approach to betting and hence their assessment of your account. Could all be nonsense mind! Nick may have a wiser answer than that.

        Josh 02/07/18 1:21 PM Reply


        • Cheers Josh it does make sense what you say.
          At the moment with my punting skills I got the feeling that bookies rate me as a very good customer

          Maz 02/07/18 1:26 PM Reply


          • oh I was a very good customer for them for 3 years or so, a good customer for them for 2 more after that, and now i’m probably not good for them haha. All takes time! But i’ve always been a level stakes punter.
            removal of BOG doesn’t concern me too much, given my view that only way you really win long term is beating the odds horse should be, and clearly SP best guide we have to that at moment, or BFSP maybe. So, in reality, you should be betting horses that are bigger odds than they should be. Obv get it wrong sometimes and drifters win/BOG comes in to play, but I would like to think most successful punters profit stash over time isn’t down to horses winning at bigger odds than they backed them at. Obviously stake restrictions at low levels or account closed entirely isn’t great news! I placed 1 point of the tip above on Betfair Sportsbook, went to place two points with them but £22 was max stake they would allow. Still, if I can get £20s on with them, then happy enough. Skybet/PP have removed BOG from me, somehow I still have my Bet365 account going, but I expect that to go when they have their annual pre Christmas cull. I use the exchange a lot more for my big Festival bets given prices I play at/liquidity in those big races, does mean taking a price but often thats 5+ points bigger than what’s around bookies etc. All part of the game really.
            Josh

            Josh 02/07/18 1:37 PM Reply


          • Hi Maz,
            some time ago I opened a/c with 1k @VC and was never in profit, didn’t withdraw and they closed a/c with less than £200 in saying they didn’t like my betting patterns. No ‘pattern’ to my bets, just larger odds e/w singles.
            Mike

            Titus 02/07/18 1:44 PM Reply


      • Well the more intricate the bet size the more there must be some system behind it.

        Nick Mazur 02/07/18 1:22 PM Reply


  • Its a bookies way of nailing the prizes down. Lets not forget its a gambling business so they as well as we are taking a gamble. They say we didn’t know there will be nonrunners while setting the prices, well I didn’t know its was going to rain last night. I accepted my gamble and will live with consequences but they won’t. Prize accepted while settling the bet should be the prize paid end off, regardless of what’s happend.

    Maz 02/07/18 1:04 PM Reply


  • Had a look at Raceolly and he’s just got a 100/1 horse placed at 10/1 sp.He obviously knows his stuff but as with all successful free tipsters you won’t keep your accounts open for long following him which for me is always the biggest problem,one bloke withdrew £2000 from bet365 after winning at the weekend with him utter madness he’ll be getting the dreaded e-mail very soon I think

    christopher jones 02/07/18 2:39 PM Reply


  • There’s a lot of great comments today about the enemy!
    I haven’t got through much of it yet as I’ve just got home from work but one thing I haven’t seen yet is any mention of people using a VPN and how that may affect accounts

    Chris Albin 02/07/18 5:28 PM Reply


    • My gut feeling is that it probably draws extra attention from the bookies. Why would someone use a VPN if they weren’t trying to cover something up? Saying that, I’ve got a friend who uses one and he hasn’t had any major problems as far as I know.

      I use a mifi box on occasion – basically a wee box that gives you mobile broadband – and haven’t had any issues.

      neilmck 02/07/18 5:43 PM Reply


    • How about a bizarre reverse, (I’m not compalaining), Betfair (not Exchange) restricted me & removed ny BOG some time ago. No big surprise. But the last two months, my BOG with Betfair is back & I can now bet usually anything up to £120 on a horse in a big (liquid) race. I can’ think how I have got lucky! I don’t have any unrestricted accounts left bar WH, still BOG but slightly restricted stakes.

      lately 02/07/18 6:07 PM Reply


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