Members Daily Post: 01/07/18 (Tipx1/complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Windsor

None.

 

JUMPS 

Cartmel 

2.45 – Lough Kent (m TJC) 22/1 S2A

3.20 –

Sam Noir (all hncps) 14,30 I3 7/2 UP

Adam Du Breteau (m runs) 14,30 I3 9/1 S5 PU

4.30 –

Wadswick Court (all hncps) 14,30 I3 6/1 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Alderbrook Lad (m dist) w1 I1 13/2 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) UP

5.05 – Dreams of Theatre (m runs) 14,30 I3 8/1 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

5.40 –

Bon Chic (m TJC) I1 12/1 S2 S5 

Volcanic (m dist) 14 3/1

 

Uttoxeter 

2.00 –

Magical Thomas (hncp h) I1 11/1 S2 S5  UP

Intifadah (m TJC/dist) 30 ES+ 5/2 S3A  3rd 

3.10 – Symphony Of Angels (m TJC/dist) 30 ES+ H3 I1 5/2 S3A# WON 5/2>6/4

3.45 –

Oliver’s Gold (all hncps + hncp c) 14,30 ES 9/1 S3 UP

Bandsman (m TJC/dist) 30 w2 ES+ I1 4/1 S3A 2nd 

4.20 –

Winter Lion (hncp c) 14 w2 I315/2 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 4th

Virgilio (m TJC) w1 30 ES+ I315/2 S3A S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) WON 8/1 

5.30 –

Mr Snoozy (all hncps) w2 14, 30 ES H1 I3  11/2 S3 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Not Now Seamus (m TJC) w1 30 ES+ H3 4/1 S3A

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 14/159,54p, -3.7) (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +152)

 

NOTES

1.30 Uttox – Diamond Reflection – 1 point win – 22/1 (gen) 2nd 33/1 , hmm, would have been 3rd I think, and Nick unlucky not to win that with his one, hope he got up ok but didn’t look great. Diamond Reflection has a weak handicap hurdle in him on that evidence, would be nice to see him ridden bit closer to pace as showed an ok turn of foot there to the eye, but was no match for the front two. 

that’s all for tips, 10.48, 

Well, a bit of a poke here who could be tailed off early on or could be one of those Dunn horses that is suddenly thrown in. This is the horse’s 11th hurdle run of his life but his first for Dunn. When opening his handicap hurdle career for his previous trainer he received a mark of 97. He’s now on a mark of 70. Plenty of his hurdle runs in the past have been on unsuitable soft ground it would seem, where he seemingly floundered in the mud. He’s only had 2x handicap hurdle runs in his life on decent ground, and both of those were after lengthy enough breaks/seasonal reappearance. At least he has shown some form for Dunn, having dotted up on the AW a few starts back. He hasn’t done much on the flat turn on his last two starts but has run ok to a point and he returns 15 days after his last start, which I found interesting, given his AW win was after 10 days, and his last three starts have been after 49, 24 and 35 last time. His one win and all places have come in that 8-15 rest day period.  Wedge has been booked which also interested me, given he’s ridden the horse three times before, and his stats with Dunn are decent enough. Anyway, there is some method to my madness there and I just couldn’t resist at 22/1. I’m probably foolish taking on that Fav given how he won LTO but that was a weak enough race, like this one, and there’s a chance the headgear doesn’t work again. I don’t think he will be able to get an easy lead either. He probably dots up again, but if he doesn’t, I wouldn’t be shocked if this one picks up the pieces. (and nor would I if he’s a bit far back after a couple of flights, it’s that sort of selection)

 

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Recent Tips(from section 2/’notes’ horses) 

(running total, from 07/06/18: 4/37,13p, +1.5) 

5.30 Uttox – Eureu Du Boulay (2nd run)

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

1.30 Uttox – Diamond Reflection

R Hobson

5.30 Uttox – Eureu Du Boulay

P Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.20 Uttox – Winter Lion

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Yesterday wasn’t great on the tipping front, but at least some of the strategies upped their game for the day.. Flat S1, S4 and S6 pulling in +20 points if backing any quals multiple times (S2 = +6, S4 = +9, S6 = +5), +7 points if just backing any multiple quals across the three strategies the once. A nice boost for them. Remember, if you haven’t read the below link (which is in the key) it may be worth a flick through, if indeed you want a systematic approach to follow…

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

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From free post… (as it’s a 3m+ hncp chase…)

4.20 Uttoxeter

Geordie Des Champs – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen)

Relentless Dreamer – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen)

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

49 Comments

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  • For those of you that might have missed it… I’m going to plug this guy again. @Raceolly on Twitter….16/1, 22/1, 33/1 (some places 50), 7/2 winners on Saturday and a 22/1 place. .. heinz returned 1.6k profit from 25p ew stakes. £800 yesterday. Absolute legend. Giving Nick M a run for his money and not a lot of people can say that!

    Darren C 30/06/18 7:08 PM Reply


    • Time will tell whether he can consistently make profit like Nick does.

      Andy M 30/06/18 9:49 PM Reply


      • Agreed.

        Darren C 30/06/18 11:14 PM Reply


        • However he picks them he does seem to know his onions in fairness. Be interesting to see what his level stakes profit is for singles but given winners I’ve seen no doubt that is decent. Albeit given odd multiple return, probably irrelevant.

          I always thought having a few decent winning days (£1k/2k+ etc) with such multiple bets, esp if from an account with a growing following, may be a sure fire way to get your accounts closed down pretty quickly, esp if successfully cashing out etc also – but I say that without any experience of such things, and having kept all of my accounts open, albeit the odd one with severe restrictions/no BOG etc. But, the more profit/winners the better and plenty to go around, so get stuck in, and some people have made decent returns from small outlays so good on him and good on them. I suspect the bookies may have his number now mind, and will have noted when they get a flood of 1000+ all betting the same multiple in the same time window, but again, no idea how their systems work and that could be nonsense. In any case, good to make hay while the sun is shining!

          I’m more fascinated about how he picks them, I wonder whether he wants to write a blog post!
          Josh

          Josh 30/06/18 11:26 PM Reply


          • I noticed a comment on his Twitter from someone who’s been tracking the results since May. Low point was -60 points.

            neilmck 01/07/18 8:28 AM Reply


          • Hi josh I’ve only followed yesterday but in comments someone tracking results said 485 points to ew singles over a few months. On his own comments it sounds like he puts the work in ( hopefully one of the good guys). He’s using speed ratings on going class and track. I know you should take all talk with a pinch of salt. But like all tipsters start small risk what you can afford.

            jamie2255 01/07/18 8:41 AM Reply


            • I think that +485 points is the total for singles and multiples, and we don’t have any idea how much he’s staking on each.

              neilmck 01/07/18 8:59 AM Reply


            • The other thing I find interesting about his selections is that (and this is only based on looking at the last few days) there seems to be some overlap with other profitable tipsters I follow.

              For me the way to play these bets (if I do) is to have the majority of my stakes on singles with a small silly multiple. I think logically if they’ve been proven to be profitable as L63s or whatever, then they should be profitable as singles too. I suppose the overall profits could be down to a few crazy days like yesterday where he had a couple of big priced winners in the same multiple, but I suspect there have been plenty of days with one or two winners. On days like that, the L63 probably made a loss but backing them as singles would have made a profit.

              I’m quite partial to a silly multiple, but I keep those bets to a fraction of my overall stakes for the day. So if I’ve got 30 points staked on singles, I’ll punt a couple of points on multiples. I also usually have different stakes on the different multiples. So say I’ve got 4 horses for the multiple. Rather than doing a £2ew yankee (£44) I’ll maybe have £4 on the doubles, £2ew on the trebles and £1ew on the acca for a total of £42. Often you’ll find that if you’re backing horses in the 8/1-14/1 range, two places is barely enough to break even on the place bets so I don’t bother, and spend a bit more backing the doubles as win only.

              About the mugginess of silly multiples, I think they’re generally viewed as a good thing by the bookies because they’ve basically got a house edge built into the price and that gets multiplied as you combine bets. Say you’re backing 4 horses at 8/1 but based on their true chance of winning they should be 10/1. So on the double you’re only getting 64/1 on six bets which should be 100/1. Then (especially if you’ve gone for a L15/31/63 where the stakes on the singles are the same as on the 4 timer), the bookie is laughing his way to the bank with your trebles at 512/1 instead of 1000/1, and the acca at 4096/1 instead of 10000/1.

              Of course that changes if you’ve got the advantage. If i’m backing four horses at 8/1 which should be 7/1, then I’m getting 64/1 on a 49/1 shot, 512/1 on a 343/1 and 4096/1 on something which should be 2401/1.

              neilmck 01/07/18 2:26 PM Reply


              • Numbers aren’t right in the last part – should have been using decimal rather than fractional odds. If I’d done it properly it would increase the gap between the various prices in the last two paragraphs.

                The numbers I’ve used would be correct for 7/1 and 6/1 in the last paragraph (decimal odds of 7 and 8), and 7/1 and 9/1 in the previous one.

                neilmck 01/07/18 2:48 PM Reply


          • I think I prefer it here.
            A great friendly bunch of guys,family even,regular profits and learning a tremendous amount about how different people have different views on how to solve the riddle.
            Andy M

            Andy M 01/07/18 8:54 AM Reply


          • The way that works for me re the multiple bets is to go into a betting shop. The cashiers are usually not engaged and just put the bet through and they have to pay you if they win. And in some they will pay part or all to you via your debit card. OK I have to drive a few miles but I would not get them on online. There are always plenty of bookies to choose from if you are near a decent sized town.

            martin colwell 01/07/18 10:39 AM Reply


          • I always thought that you’re more likely to get restricted if you do just singles and not the muggy multiples is that not the case ?

            westy2 01/07/18 11:01 AM Reply


            • Well I suspect it’s whether said bookie would view them as muggy or not, (and if successful) and if from a source they may have marked,(more likely with twitter etc I suspect) then who knows- it may not be about restrictions, more just a case of whether some will now accept the bet online, given the liabilities we are talking which could be red flagged all within a certain time slot post tweet etc. There may be nothing to it of course.

              Josh 01/07/18 11:08 AM Reply


              • Aye exactly. In this case I don’t think the bookies are behaving badly. They can’t be expected to expose themselves to massive liabilities on the same bet.

                neilmck 01/07/18 11:30 AM Reply


              • Muggy is usually low stakes multiples stuff it seems to me. However in a betting shop you can get on a £10 win yankee and likely more on without any issues.
                Online is based upon the software alerts in it and so you are at the behest of the programme. I have an account with Star Sports ‘The Gentlemen s Bookmakers’ so they say. They say that they will only restrict me, regardless of bet size, if I have a bet where I am deemed to have used ‘preferential information not in the public domain’. A bit subjective I think.

                martin colwell 01/07/18 11:46 AM Reply


                • Martin, when you say £10 win yankee, are you meaning total stake or unit stake? I know you have a fairly high unit stake (certainly compared to me!)

                  Ken McKenzie 01/07/18 12:46 PM Reply


                  • That’s £10 unit stake, so £110

                    neilmck 01/07/18 12:48 PM Reply


                    • Yes £110 in total. Free Sausage Rolls and Picing Eggs as well on a Saturday in Corals! Some hygiene issues though.

                      martin colwell 01/07/18 1:11 PM


  • Winner and a 3rd from the 3 so far with 2 more to run. Would do the write ups but after doing London 2 nights running I am a little mentally fatigued.
    Martila Cartmel Sunday 14:45 1pt e/w Price taken 10/1
    Running Wolf Cartmel Sunday 15:20 1pt e/w Price taken 7/1
    Winter Lion Uttoxeter Sunday 16:20 1pt e/w Price taken 8/1

    Nick Mazur 30/06/18 8:18 PM Reply


    • We finish the month on 88.49 pts of profit

      Nick Mazur 30/06/18 9:20 PM Reply


      • Terrific results Nick. You set a standard for us all to aspire to. Well done.

        Ken McKenzie 30/06/18 10:57 PM Reply


      • Great results Nick, thanks again for the tips and the same to you too Josh, great work all round. It’s been a crazy few months since the start of Cheltenham and I’ve finally managed to grow my bank to the point where I wanted it. I’ve steadily increased stakes from £2 per point to £10 per point for tips/notes horses so it’s nearly time to start skimming the profits off the top.

        A word of caution, never do a mini fist pump near the wife when one of the biggies comes in. She’s now demanding a holiday off the back of your efforts!!

        jamiem 01/07/18 1:03 PM Reply


    • Consecutive nights in London at your age!! You have beat me to the tipping punch on Sunday with Winter Lion, 4.20 Utt, 2 points each way at 8/1.
      He re opposes Virgilio who beat him LTO at Aintree. However the selection was closing and this race is over slightly further. His owners like runners at Uttoxeter and so all systems go.
      June was an awful month for me with the tips I posted on here, minus 27.25. Cumulative total since Cheltenham Festival now minus 9. Today I was going to tip Withhold 5 points but with the lack of support down to 3/1 territory let me change my mind. Schoolboy error!

      Good luck.

      martin colwell 30/06/18 9:25 PM Reply


      • (thanks for the wine Martin, 6 bottles safely delivered back to the family home…I’ll get stuck in when I’m next back. Much appreciated, cheers) Josh

        Josh 30/06/18 11:28 PM Reply


        • OK enjoy. Too warm for Malbec at present but it keeps.

          martin colwell 01/07/18 10:41 AM Reply


  • Well thanks to a whopping 66/1 ew winner with Cosmelli in the Northumberland Vase, after R4’s and NR’s, we came out with 24.99pts profit on the day.

    As Josh said, I can’t really claim this as part of my usual strategy but nonetheless it helped us to an overall profit for June of 16.29pts.

    Hope some of you had a small nibble on Cosmelli. I didn’t even see the race live as I was on the golf course but a nice surprise when I came in to the clubhouse. Free drinks all round!

    Ken McKenzie 30/06/18 10:56 PM Reply


    • Ken
      There was only 3 of you playing. Lol.

      mickeydee 01/07/18 12:08 AM Reply


      • I did have a few quid on Cosmelli after seeing your post. Thanks!

        neilmck 01/07/18 11:31 AM Reply


  • results update 38 selections 1 wins,9 places, staked 38 pts returns 19.75 pts down 18.25 pts.
    todays qualifiers,
    2-45 Cartmel. Golden Jeffrey 9-1 sky 4 places
    3-55 Cartmel, Endeavor 12-1 generally

    martin whittle 01/07/18 1:44 AM Reply


  • Bet365 not accepting multiple bets on raceolly selections

    Stephen Williams 01/07/18 9:11 AM Reply


    • Hi all, a serious punter that couldn’t get his lucky 63 on would break the bet down and place around different bookies, raceolly didnt advise that, I’m like Josh respect that he can pick a good price few winners I would like more detail on how.

      Good luck with any bets everyone today, it’s hammering down here in Tavistock must check the weather where racing is today.

      Greg

      Greg Phillips 01/07/18 9:34 AM Reply


  • From free post… write up on way

    4.20 Uttoxeter

    Geordie Des Champs – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen)

    Relentless Dreamer – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen)

    Josh 01/07/18 9:47 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    No bet today

    Brain damage will do June’s returns tomorrow after three heavy nights of booze and dancing.

    colin leafe 01/07/18 11:22 AM Reply


  • Decided to add one more and quick write ups:

    Kiruna Peak Sunday Uttoxeter 13:30 1pt e/w-Price available 7/1-This one looked a solid pick since was making her handicap debut LTO after a 6 month break so should come on for that. Paddy back on board. Winner last time out has followed of up off 5lbs higher. We know he handles the ground and looks to have a solid chance.
    Martila-Pretty certain I’ve never taken one 2 LTO winners that I tipped to win before but this one looked very solid. Fav looked very good but one of the reasons I tipped him was it looked an average race. This one looks to still be progressing and is having his 3rd start from a break after just founding one too good. He won a class 2 last winter and is 2/2 at Cartmel. Jockey riding well and trainer in OK form. Trainer is 1/6, 4p here in the past 2 years so she doesn’t send them here for nothing.
    Running Wolf-Another who looked to have an excellent chance. Won a race last autumn on fast ground which has produced several winners and would have needed it last time out. Drops down in class and you would think there is a decent chance he has progressed as only 7. 7 of the trainers last 9 runners have either won or placed so stable flying.
    Winter Lion Uttoxeter Sunday 16:20-Looks to have the most solid chance here. Won at Cheltenham and the 3rd, 4th and 5th have followed up which is arguably the best form on offer. Trainer/jockey in good form. He ran last time like the extra furlong will not be an issue. More unexposed than most here given only 4th run for Fergal. Should reverse the form with Virgillio LTO particularly as that one is worse away from Aintree. Ran within 2 lengths of At of Payroll on fast ground in a beginners chase so we know he will have no issues with fast ground here.

    Nick Mazur 01/07/18 12:03 PM Reply


    • Looked to be coming to catch the favourite, but a crashing fall at the last! It is a tough game.

      martin colwell 01/07/18 1:36 PM Reply


      • On a different day all 4 place given the faller and 2nd one looking nailed on for 3rd but will take it.

        Nick Mazur 01/07/18 4:34 PM Reply


  • From NTF Summer Stunners free guide
    5.05 Cartmel – Dreamsoftheatre 17/2
    Notes:
    7/8 wins on Good or quicker
    7/8 wins at 3m+
    8/8 wins 11 runners or less
    Richard Johnson 3/4
    Strong in August

    The last 2 points don’t fit for today but OR is 15lbs below last winning mark so might be worth a few bob ew.

    Ken McKenzie 01/07/18 12:26 PM Reply


    • I’ve also followed the Flat Jockey Profits download that Josh recommended recently. Over Fri and Sat I am 17pts in profit using the Moore/O’Brien combo. It does seem that you can bet this blind, although I didn’t go for Saxon Warrior after his poor run in the Derby.

      Ken McKenzie 01/07/18 12:54 PM Reply


    • I should say that those profits are based on 1pt win up to 10/1 and 0.5pt ew above that.

      Ken McKenzie 01/07/18 1:05 PM Reply


    • Dreams of Theatre’s win at 11/2 in the 5.05 at Cartmel, available at 9/1 last night, makes it 3 winners (and a 20/1 3rd) from 7 runners, I believe, for the excellent Ben Aitken’s Summer Stunners – he’s not paying me, honestly!

      The next qualifier is Vosne Romanee, due to run in the 7.30 at Stratford on Tuesday.

      johnnyb 01/07/18 5:42 PM Reply


      • Good to know, I should have a look! it’s always is an excellent report. Good to know it’s found a few winners. I’m seeing him a few weeks for a catch up, I’ll hint that dinner should be on him haha. He showed up pretty strong on Geegeez instant expert and does like it at Cartmel… odds weren’t big enough for me when looked this morning, tipping wise, given age/last two runs…but then again chance he hates Fontwell and only faded between last two, weak race also. Did hit 10s 20 mins before off! Good shout Ken, and glad you both had a go.

        Josh 01/07/18 5:51 PM Reply


    • Cracking race from Alain Cawley on Dreamsoftheatre. Eased him around to take the lead in the closing stretch.

      Ken McKenzie 01/07/18 6:20 PM Reply


      • Great call Ken.
        It was a cracking ride.

        Jim 01/07/18 6:51 PM Reply


  • 245C All Set To Go won comfortably LTO, only doing enough and suitable conditions here for a follow up, assuming the trainer doesn’t want to protect the rating (still below career high. 8/1
    355C Red Tortue winning pointer and hurdler now off a basement mark returned to fences, in a weak race 0-101 (nominally 0-110) with H Brooke atop (chase and course prowess, 1st ride) and a first time visor. 13/2 available. Firm going a query.
    Ire 220 Beach Bar had been off 12 weeks before last run; was a very easy winner back in Feb. and the yard are exploiting his front running capabilities with three wins already, the first of which was 2nd time after a break. 10/1 to be found.

    chrisrees 01/07/18 1:10 PM Reply


  • l am on Henllan Harri and Good Man Vinnie both 0.5p EW
    Josh and Nick tipped in this race as well so I am playing EW as my confidence is quite low.
    – 11 p. so fare on my own horses since I started putting them up on here.

    Maz 01/07/18 1:20 PM Reply


    • it’s an open race Maz, I won’t fall off my seat if either of those two takes this. Best of luck.

      Josh 01/07/18 1:21 PM Reply


      • That was close Josh 1330 race. Obviously I didn’t back EW.

        Maz 01/07/18 2:10 PM Reply


        • oh neither did I haha, although given my views on the fav, I probably should have but say that with hindsight. But I rarely go EW, but happy with how I read him/race. Would have been 3rd anyway had O’Brien’s not fallen and she looked like winning (she got up fine). Still, was a decent run of promise…would have been more interesting if could have tracked leader closer as showed a decent turn of foot up straight, to eye anyway..but jockey wanted to settle him/get in rhythm and was quite congested behind leader early on. Oh well. I just need one or two of those to fall in, but if they run that well, one will at some point!

          Josh 01/07/18 2:59 PM Reply


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