Members Daily Post: 29/06/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

FLAT

Doncaster 

3.00 – Karnavaal (2YO) 14 7/2 

 

Yarmouth 

3.10 – Queen Adelaide (3yo+ hncps + micro class/age) G3 10/1 

3.40 – 

Dark Side Jazz (3yo+ hncps + m age) w1 4/1 

Arcadian Sea (m going) I3 7/1 

4.10 – 

Horsted Keynes (all hncps 5 yrs, all hncps) ES+ I3 10/1 S3A 

Lady Freyja (m age) I3 G3  7/1 

 

Newmarket (July) 

5.35- Marilyn (all hncps + 3yo+) w2 w1 H3 I3 G1 3/1 S2 S4 

7.55 – Syrian Pearl (all hncps + 3yo+) w2 40/1 

8.30 – Breath Caught (all hncps 5 yrs, all, 3yo+) w2 ES+ H3 G3 11/4 S3A#

 

Chester

7.05 – Angelina D’Or (m class) 14,30 H3 I3 G1 5/2 S2 S4 

8.50 – Saint Equiano (m dist) H1 9/2 

 

JUMPS

Cartmel 

2.50 – Handy Hollow (m dist) I3 8/1 3rd 

3.50 – Eager To Know (m dist) 6/1 3rd

5.20 – Wells De Lune (all hncps + m age) 14,30 H3 I3 15/2 WON 15/2>9/2 (10p R4) 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 14/157,52p, -1.7) (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +156)

NOTES

2.50 Cart – Handy Hollow – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) 3rd, maybe pocket talking but he’s tanked through that, held up too far, switched wide poss at wrong point and covered more ground than ideal. Maybe he just flatters to deceive but should have a race in him at that level. 

5.20 Cart- Wells Du Lune – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) WON 7/1>9/2 (10p R4) 6.3/1 

6.20 Newc- Guardia Svizzera – 1 point win – 14/1 (bet65) 12/1 (gen) UP

that will be all for tips, (09.26) 

I’m convinced if I keep that 30% or so win/place SR up that I’ll eventually propel this year’s notes into some sort of profit and fingers crossed one or more of these three today can help…

Handy Hollow…he arrives here in form and takes another step up in trip, at a track with a very long run in after the last flight. Based on how he ran LTO at Uttoxeter, that looks sure to help. He was doing all of his best work late on there and somewhat flew home, having been held up too far back (possibly to settle him) in a race that turned into a bit of a sprint I think. It could be that form doesn’t amount to much but he is unexposed in handicap hurdles and those on good ground, which appears to be key. He is a small horse and the tight nature of this track should suit, in theory. 8s seemed generous enough and with any luck McCain can build on his 5/19,11p stats in 22f Cartmel handicap hurdles over the last 5 years. His horses are going well enough again and I’d be disappointed if this one wasn’t in contention as they turn for home. It is an open/weak enough race to my eyes, with nothing having done too much across race conditions. Plenty of red on Geegeez Instant expert. It’s there for the taking. 

Wells Du Lune… he arrives here in some sort of form and Peter Bowen is red hot again. As an aside… I have just read the chapter on him in Henrietta Knight’s new book, which is a fascinating read… he uses artificial lights which means many of his never develop winter coats really, and maintain a nice coat/summer coat, helping them come to hand quicker… thinking about it, those methods would help explain why often his string are ready to roll in the early summer months, and often more forward than others. I think. Anyway, whatever he does seems to be working again given he is 6/21,9p in the last 14 days. What lured me in here, on top of the yard form and the horse’s prominent running style, was the reapplication of the tongue tie- which he has worn plenty of times before …he is 0/5,0p in handicaps (0/7,0p total) without it, and 3/7 (4/12,5p all runs) in handicaps with it. He hasn’t worn it for his last two runs over hurdles, having been hunter chasing before that for a time, where he ran well/won a few times. He’s hacked up in a C4 handicap hurdle for his old trainer off 112, won a C3 handicap chase off 128, and he is lightly raced in this sphere. With any luck he is now about to strike, and the TT will make all the difference in being able to kick for home and stay there. Hopefully that’s the reason he will overturn the form with the N King horse from that Stratford run 10 days back. His jockey knows him well also, having ridden him in his hunter chases for Bowen. It looks an open enough race and again 7s seemed fair enough. Another who in theory should give me a run for my money deep into this contest. 

Guardia Stizzera..one for the Fell angle below. He is in red hot form, and even hotter when Hamilton has been riding. This horse is lightly enough raced in conditions and he has got better with each of his three runs for the yard so far this year, his effort at Carlisle a marked step forward from his previous efforts. He runs on the AW here which I thought was intriguing but the main reason for putting him up, other than him being a stats qual below for a red hot team, was the pace…I’m pretty confident he will try and lead from the front again here, and hopefully can stay there. The Knight horse can race up there but over 7f and hopefully won’t have the pace, as can the M Scudamore rag, but again I’m not sure he’ll have the ability, but you never know. Front runners have a decent record over this CD, from what I can see in Geegeez. In any case he should be in the right spot and there’s a chance the 6f at Carlisle just stretched him, given how stiff a finish it is there. Or he may well have still been coming to hand. This will tell us more but he’s only 4 and you’d think Fell will find the key at some point, hopefully today. All in all, 12s seemed like a decent price in which to find out. I’d be disappointed if he was able to dictate his own pace and didn’t place. 

All three are in some sort of form, esp the jumpers, and all three come from stables going well, two of them very hot. So, fingers crossed. I could do with a good day, as relying on big priced ‘Festival’ handicap race winners is a risky long term strategy, albeit a rather enjoyable and profitable one so far this year! On we march. 

 

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Recent Tips(from section 2/’notes’ horses) 

(running total, from 07/06/18: 3/33,11p, +3.5) 

3.20 Cart– Souriyan (1st run)

Note…past Festival runner.. Curragh 7.45 – Grand Partner, (2nd run)

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

6.20 Newc- Guardia Svizzera 

6.55 Newc – Two For Two 

Jumps 

Tom Lacey 

4.50 Cart- Silk Run 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points

3.50 Cart – Isle Road / Martha’s Benefit

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

I promise that we didn’t get drunk, so if all of Nick’s tips on Friday fall out the back of the TV (unlikely), I’m not to blame. If however, any of mine are still running come Saturday, I’m blaming the beer! 🙂

 

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Newmarket through the card…just seen an email from one of you who is off racing this evening…I’ve had a very brief look through the card..it looks trappy and there are a few LTO winners that bolted up and are well in, and you’d think some of them will be following up…

5.35 – Marilyn
610 – Lovers Knot (Hannon horse the solid one, 3rd start, chance that this one could be special though)
6.45 – Wheellan – should give it a good go from the front hopefully, open to attack from the more unexposed ones but if can dictate, his battle hardiness may take him close
7.20 – Midnight Blue
7.55 – Magical Dreamer (massive speed figure in this, fast ground a concern but ran well at Ripon on it)
8.50 – Brorocco – has a very good pot in him this season somewhere, last run may have come too soon after Epsom, (his form ties in him Ajman, and Dash of Spice etc..it’s solid!!, as is his own form from last season etc) but a chance that race wasn’t run to suit…there is more pace for him to aim at today… / Breath Caught looks good for Beckett, who is now hitting some form, step up in trip should suit but maybe short enough
9.00 -Escalator may bolt up again here… Hasanoanda for Gosden… this race is here to be won from front, which he did in his maiden two starts back but was held up LTO on handicap debut, maybe Havlin will try and steal this from the front. But even if he could dictate, the Fellowes horse looks thrown in maybe.

Not a card to go mad, maybe a case of a few muggy multiples on the shorties if you are going racing etc. Some of interest around the 7/2-6/1 range that may ensure an ok day!

Josh

 

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

25 Comments

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  • Two starting points qualifiers in 350C, Martha’s Benefit and Isle Road, the 1st and 2nd favs. according to the RP betting forecast.
    Isle Road’s win was in a slightly higher grade race whilst MB is an experienced hunter chaser with a course win over 25F on his cv.
    For our purposes, we will stake 1%, £10 on IR, the longer priced animal and £11, 1.1% on the favourite for our bets at BSP.

    chrisrees 28/06/18 8:04 PM Reply


    • The two bets have interchanged favouritism this morning so you can choose to adjust the staking to reflect that.

      chrisrees 29/06/18 1:28 PM Reply


      • Martha’s Benefit was favourite, won BSP 2.90, the stake of £11 wins £19.85 so the profit today is £9.85.
        9 bets, £94 staked, net profit £122.51, 130% POT.

        chrisrees 29/06/18 6:55 PM Reply


  • Nothing again today so -4pts.

    Newcastle again tomorrow. Just two qualifiers:
    6.55 Two For Two 13/2 & Kreb’s Cycle 16/1

    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 28/06/18 8:48 PM Reply


  • results update 35 selections 1 wins,7 places, staked 35 pts returns 16.75 pts down 18.25 pts
    friday one qualifier.
    8-50 Chester. Intransigent 14-1 bv

    martin whittle 28/06/18 9:31 PM Reply


  • A couple which weren’t a million miles away to keep the losses to a minimum. Couple for tomorrow. No pressure on me as Josh promised to refund all losing bets out of his own pocket! (OK I might have made that last part up)

    Our Little Pony Doncaster Friday 17:00 1pt e/w Price taken 7/1
    Little Windmill Cartmel Friday 16:20 1pt e/w Price taken 10/1

    Nick Mazur 28/06/18 11:14 PM Reply


  • No joy yesterday, it’s all a bit of a struggle stat-wise right now, but I’ll plug on…

    3.40 Yarmouth – Matchmaking (class droppers)
    3.40 Yarmouth – Right About Now (trainer’s only runner today)
    4.10 Yarmouth – Race Day (class droppers)
    5.20 Cartmel – Golden Jeffrey (LTO HC Hrd Winners)
    5.55 Chester – Red Force One (2nd run in 90 days)
    7.05 Chester – Hidden Steps (2nd run in 90 days)
    8.15 Chester – Jetstream (trainer’s only runner today)

    traf69 29/06/18 1:46 AM Reply


  • Last year Chris Baxendale supplied extensive trends for the Northumberland Plate resulting in me backing Higher Power the winner.
    Any chance Chris you can do the same tomorrow please?
    Many Thanks.

    Michael Michaelson 29/06/18 6:14 AM Reply


    • This is Chris Bs comment from before last year’s race…
      3.30 pm Saturday
      Newcastle Northumberland Plate

      20 years – 374 runners

      Handicap runs, 1-4: 0/63
      Handicap wins, 1: 1/74
      Runs since placed, 3-4: 0/75
      Last run, Class 4/6: 0/37
      Days between last run and 2nd last run, NOT 11-75: 1/85

      10 years – 185 runners

      No win in last 5 runs: 1/69
      Distance runs, 4 or more: 0/53
      Handicap wins, 0-1: 0/58
      Last run, NOT top 3: 1/92
      Aged 7 or older: 1/39
      Last winning run: Class 4 or lower: 1/58

      Six pass through: 2/11/13/14/16/18

      2016 was first running on AW:
      3 of the first 4 had a previous AW win.
      4 of the first 5 had a previous AW place.

      W-P-UP (AW record)
      Higher Power 2-2-0
      Sir Chauvelin 0-0-1
      Jaameh 0-0-1
      Lord George 2-2-0
      My Reward 1-0-2
      Champagne Champ 0-2-1

      Higher Power (8/1) and Lord George (12/1) stand out.
      Also worth adding in Natural Scenery (10/1) IMO. Only failed on ‘LTO not top 3’ trend. Has an impressive 3-2-1 AW record including 3 wins from 3 for Josephine Gordon – latest one being over CD in Feb 2017.

      Josh 29/06/18 8:45 AM Reply


  • I am on
    Cartmel 1620 – Pena Dorada 12/1
    Chester 2050 – Gabrial The Tiger 11/1
    I fancy Syrial Pearl and Horsted Keynes from the stats above.
    1p win

    so fare – 7 points

    Maz 29/06/18 7:18 AM Reply


  • Got to keep going….yesterday was terrible for us all i beleive…
    17:20 Cartmel
    ROCKCLIFFE 11/1 gen
    WELLS DU LUNE 15/2 gen
    19:30 Newcastle
    SOIE D`LEAU 20/1 gen
    EVERGATE 12/1 gen
    20:50 Chester
    BALTIC PRINCE 10/1 bb
    GABRIAL THE TIGER 12/1 gen

    Good luck with whatever you back today.

    Stewart 29/06/18 8:12 AM Reply


  • One for me today.

    8.05 Nc Four White Socks 4/1
    Good Form 2nd to Agrotera at Windsor who went on to win at Royal Ascot.
    Won 12-runner minor event at Goodwood (9.9f, good, 15/8) 19 days ago, plenty in hand. Her form is strong and her pedigree gives her plenty of scope.

    Mike

    mickeydee 29/06/18 8:16 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    Just one past ‘note’

    C 3.20 – Souriyan, 1st run 12/6

    Also a past ‘festival’ runner

    Cu 7.45 – Grand Partner, tipped 24/4 @20’s but fell and was 2nd on 13/6

    Mike

    Titus 29/06/18 9:34 AM Reply


    • Cheers Mike..

      Also, I have just sent you an email 🙂 No worries if a bit short notice.

      Thanks, Josh

      Josh 29/06/18 11:54 AM Reply


  • Chris M Selections:
    15:20 Cartmel – Souriyan (11/4 gen)
    16:40 Yarmouth – Ode To Autumn (5/2 gen)
    16:50 Cartmel – The Phantom (9/1gen)
    17:35 Newmarket – Marilyn (11/4 gen)
    19:05 Chester – Angelina D’Or (11/4 gen)
    19:10 Curragh – Azzuri (7/2 gen)
    20:20 Curragh – Lucios Liberius (5/1 gen)
    21:10 Newcastle – Savannah Beau (16/1 gen)

    Long list today but good luck with whatever you bet

    Chris M 29/06/18 9:57 AM Reply


  • Newmarket through the card…just seen an email from one of you who is off racing this evening…I’ve had a very brief look through the card..it looks trappy and there are a few LTO winners that bolted up and are well in, and you’d think some of them will be following up…

    5.35 – Marilyn
    610 – Lovers Knot (Hannon horse the solid one, 3rd start, chance that this one could be special though)
    6.45 – Wheellan – should give it a good go from the front hopefully, open to attack from the more unexposed ones but if can dictate, his battle hardiness may take him close
    7.20 – Midnight Blue
    7.55 – Magical Dreamer (massive speed figure in this, fast ground a concern but ran well at Ripon on it)
    8.50 – Brorocco – has a very good pot in him this season somewhere, last run may have come too soon after Epsom, (his form ties in him Ajman, and Dash of Spice etc..it’s solid!!, as is his own form from last season etc) but a chance that race wasn’t run to suit…there is more pace for him to aim at today… / Breath Caught looks good for Beckett, who is now hitting some form, step up in trip should suit but maybe short enough
    9.00 -Escalator may bolt up again here… Hasanoanda for Gosden… this race is here to be won from front, which he did in his maiden two starts back but was held up LTO on handicap debut, maybe Havlin will try and steal this from the front. But even if he could dictate, the Fellowes horse looks thrown in maybe.

    Not a card to go mad, maybe a case of a few muggy multiples on the shorties if you are going racing etc. Some of interest around the 7/2-6/1 range that may ensure an ok day!

    Josh

    Josh 29/06/18 10:46 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Yarmouth
    4.10 Ower Fly
    4.10 Horsted Keynes
    Cartmel
    4.20 Little Windmill
    5.20 Golden Jeffery
    Newmarket
    5.35 Pour La Victorie
    5.35 Spirit Of Sarwan
    Chester
    8.15 Mr Reckless
    Newcastle
    9.10 Oriental Fly
    9.10 Eternalist Phil Dennis has ridden Oriental Fly to 3 wins at Newcastle in the winter but is riding Jim Goldie’s outsider tonight of the two.

    colin leafe 29/06/18 10:49 AM Reply


  • Good afternoon guys / Josh,

    Going to York tomorrow (Saturday) so would very much appreciate some through the card pointers if you have the time.

    I also wanted to ask if anyone had any experience of the tools available on beforetheoff.com. They look like a spin off from the proform site, with the trend lines and such. I’ve used geegeez extensively in the last year but I find pulling up such things as sire stats at course, distance and ground and making a subsequent comparison very laborious and it looks like beforetheoff has quite a nice interface and graphical presentation of a lot of applicable data.

    Cheers,
    Lee

    Lee Hayward 29/06/18 12:54 PM Reply


    • I’ve just had a quick look Lee as I use Sire data and Proform all the time. Only problem I can see with this is that the Sire stats for today’s course doesn’t give access to the course characteristics file. So if the sire hasn’t had any or has only had a few runs at today’s course, you will be looking at a very small sample. You won’t be able to get the bigger picture by looking at similar courses as you can on Proform.

      Other than that it looks fairly good value at the prices.

      Tim

      Tim 29/06/18 2:07 PM Reply


      • Hi Tim,
        how have you used Sire data in the past and do you use it any systematic betting?
        I have done some research in the past re sires and tried a few systems based around it but have not found them profitable.

        martin colwell 29/06/18 4:10 PM Reply


        • Hi Martin….. I don’t do any ‘systematic’ betting as such, the problem I have with systems is that they have a base assumption that all races are the same, whereas we all know that every race is different. I don’t really have any rules either outside of the kind of race I get involved in, but that’s really due to the fact that there is so much racing that it’s difficult to get the in depth knowledge that’s needed to profit from every kind of race.

          I prefer novice fields as the horses involved haven’t picked up any bad habits and are more likely to give a more genuine account of their ability. Also the playing field is leveled by the fact that no one can be really sure as to the pace the race will be run at. So short priced horses can easily be undone by the lack of pace to run at, which is good for me cos I play the mid to longer shots.

          The sire data is where I usually start from but is taken into context for every race by adding trainer and particularly, jockey stat’s too. Is surprising just how many jock’s have a decent course record for example, but when you break it down you find they can’t ride a debutant for a single win from 20 rides. Riding youngsters to win appears to be a skill not all jockeys have.

          So really there’s no hard and fast rules, it’s all about the general feel for the horse on the day given the context of the race and the odds on offer. One thing I can say is that I rarely come to post time with only the one horse I’m interested in, there is usually a few depending upon the size of the field. The good news is that I can usually narrow it down to one, occasionally two as they are going down to post purely because there is no value left in the others on my shortlist.

          Perhaps the only hard rule I have is not to back horses that have been exposed by the media (tipsters and/or correspondents), and are offered at biggish prices at post time. If this happens almost always it’s because somebody somewhere knows something they don’t.

          Tim 29/06/18 5:20 PM Reply


          • OK thanks. Systems can be precise in regard to type of race or course related I think? I guess it is when is it a system and when is it a micro? I suspected that the answer you gave would be what you said. Like I said previously I do not have any Sire related systems but I have found that Frankel has been the best with his 2 and 3 year olds. Still a loser though in regard to just backing them.

            martin colwell 29/06/18 5:28 PM Reply


            • Problem with horse’s like Frankel is that the name has become a neon sign to all the casual punters that see it under the entry on every bookmakers wall in the country. Besides that they are often hyped by the media so would fall foul of my media exposure rule even if the price was decent.

              You have a point there about the ‘micro system’. You could say that I operate the same micro system for every track purely because the course is the only exclusive variable. All the other variables such as distance, going, L/H, R/H, sire, dam etc etc, are applied in a similar fashion to every course. As to which horse I back depends upon the context of the particular track on the day.

              Tim 29/06/18 7:00 PM Reply


  • Hi folks,

    thought id chip in with a few on a quiet day and a quiet month for me. Two go at Cartmel.
    2.50 honeychile ryder. I think this ones got a bit going for it today. Trainer stats caught the eye. In this sphere she is 9r 4w 5p with all respective runners returning within 10 days. Got CD form, will love the ground and im hoping the step back up in distance will really suit. Trainers stats improve to 6r 3w 4p at the course. @ 18/1 with 365 looks a nice price.
    3.50 shine away. Was 25s now 14s with 365 at time of writing. Trainer 13r 6w 7p in this sphere with very nice profit. Improves to 6r 3w 4p at the course. PU 13 days ago! in a race which didn’t suit and drops back in trip.

    Sorry its a late post.

    good luck with your bets.

    jarrodholmes68 29/06/18 1:27 PM Reply


  • How did she not win that?

    Jim 29/06/18 5:04 PM Reply


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