Members Daily Post: 27/06/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Carlisle 

3.00- Zorovan (3yo+ hncps + micro dist/class) ES+ 9/1 S3A 

3.30 – 

Be Kool (m age) 40/1 UP

Balestra (m dist) w2 H1 G1 9/1 S1 S6 

Vive La Difference (m dist) w1 H3 G3 7/1 S5 UP

4.00 – Armandihan G3 12/1 2nd 11/1 

 

Bath

7.20 – 

Secret Fact (m dist/class drop) 13/2 

Showmethewayavrilo (m dist) ES+ I3 20/1 S3A 

 

Salisbury

None. 

 

JUMPS

Worcester

2.20 – Chase Me (all hncps + hncp chase) H3 9/4  UP

3.20 – Forthefunofit (hncp c) 14,30 8/1  2nd 

4.20 – Scoop The Pot (all hncps) w2 ES+ 7/2 S3A 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 13/151,49p, -3) (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +156)

NOTES

NONE 

I was staring at Balestra for a time but he’s a non runner now, so no decision to make. There isn’t really anything else jumping off the page at me, price wise, for tipping purposes. 

Armandihan... 2nd I’ve added him to my tracker as I’m sure he should show himself to be thrown in off this mark one day. I have talked myself out of tipping him mainly due to the two at the top of the market – taking on LTO winners who both look progressive doesn’t seem wise on this occasion, we shall see if I’ve got that right. The Fell horse won doing handstands LTO and is rated 1lb lower than this Ryan horse, yet receives a whole stone in weight due to the allowances etc. This horse drops back in class, headgear returns and Stott returns for the first time this season. He didn’t run that well LTO but maybe he doesn’t like York. I find him interesting because last October he ran well at both Redcar and Doncaster. Those were both very hot races, that have thrown up numerous winners since… horses now rated 98, 86, 90, 96 for example. He’s now down to 77 and I’d like to think he has a race or two in him from around this mark. It looks like he needs 12f and the ground is an unknown…he won his maiden on fast, but some of his better runs have been with cut. Maybe he’s an autumn horse. If he bolts up today I’d be a tad annoyed having not tipped him, so he’ll get a 1/4 point just in case (not an official tip)… but there are a few niggles with him, and I thought the front two may be tough to beat. Hopefully he runs well today, and opens an ok price on his next couple of starts! I’d like to see more than LTO, and he didn’t exactly respond to CP when they were last used. 

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I’m not expecting much from the ‘recent tips’ below in truth, having looked through. Having said that no doubt a couple of them will now bolt up!  Insomniac...well soft ground may have done for him the last twice, but he has looked moderate. He does step up to 16f today, and returns to the sand. He may get 1/4 point at a massive price just to find out really. It now looks like connections don’t really know what to do with him so will just keep trying a few different things, maybe more in hope than expectation. But, he may relish 16f and the AW, and that will be the making of him. Maybe. 

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Recent Tips(from section 2/’notes’ horses) 

(running total, from 07/06/18: 3/225,10p, +11.5) 

3.00 Carl– Pursuing Steed (1st run) (late addition,09.52) UP

3.20 Worc – Forthefunofit (2nd run) 2nd 

3.30 Carl– Be Kool (1st run) (late addition,09.52) UP

7.40 Kempt- Hedging (1st run) 

8.40 Kemp – Insomniac (tipped last twice, 1st run)

Note: 

4.20 Worc- Knight of Noir – Festival Tip (3rd run) 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

3.00 Carl- Tadaawol 16/1 WON 16/1>9/1 

3.30 Carl- Muligatawny 25/1 UP

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

3.20 Worc- Cabaret Queen 5/2 WON 7/2 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update 

Results Update  (4thJune- 24thJune) 

Summary below, links in Key for Jumps + Flat Strategies will be updated asap

Summary

TOTAL (strategies) (Section 1):

  • JUMPS – S1 (/) S2 (1/33,5p, -18, -27 BFSP) S2A (subset of S2… 0/8,0p, -8) S3 (2/10,3p, +10) S3A (3/18,4p, -1/5) S4 (/) S5 (0/10,0p, -10)
  • FLAT 2018: S1 (3/10,5p, +5.25) S2 (7/26,12p, +13.75) S3A (1/18,2p, -12) S4 (4/15,8p, +6.75) S5 (3/10,5p, +6) S6 (2/21,8p, -5, -8 BFSP)

TEST ZONE

  • Jumps angles: 1/29,6p, -23.5
  • Flat: (Fell) 1/20,6p, -17

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago w1 / w2)

  • Jumps: 3/15,4p, -3.25 (w1 : 3/10,3p, +1.75, w20/5,1p, -5)
  • Flat: 4/20,1p, +4.5 (w13/8,5p, +12.5, w2 1/12,5p, -8)

Handicap Debut (jumps+flat): 0/3,0p, -3

S3A# – S3A Double/Treble rated (jumps+flat): 2/14,5p, 3/10,3p, +3.5

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Where To Begin? ‘Advised’ Portfolio Ideas

(based on the report/link in The Key… ‘The Strategies: Where should you start’)

Flat: S1 (3/10,5p, +5.25, 2018 – 10/30,13p, +19) S4 (4/15,8p, +6.75, 2018 – 15/57,27p, +18.6 ) S6 (2/21,8p, -5, -8 BFSP, 2018 – 6/66,17p, +9, +27 BFSP)

Jumps: S2A (0/8,0p, -8, 2018 – 7/100,21p, +40, +65.5 BFSP)

Total 4th-24thJune: 9/54,21p, -1, -4 BFSP

Total 2018 (1 point win):  253 bets / 38 wins / 78 w|p / +86.6 (early/bog) / +130.1 (BFSP)

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Selected others

S3A#(ES+ double/treble rated):

Total (Jumps/Flat): 100 bets / 29 wins / 45 w|p / +38.75 (early/bog)

‘In-Form Horses’

Those section 1 stats qualifiers Flat + jumps  that WON last time out (w1) are now, since being tracked from 12thFeb 2018:

113 bets / 26 wins / 39w|p / +20.8 (early/bog)

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The ‘where to begin’ ideas, as a portfolio after 253 bets are operating at a 15% win SR.

That does mean iffy losing runs every now and then… 43 max (approx.) every 1000 bets, and everything in between, multiple times. That win SR is down to the ‘bigger odds’ strategies that are Flat S6 and Jumps S2A, which are not for the faint hearted, if following systematically. As with everything I do it’s about offering options/ideas to suit your own betting style/tolerance etc. 

For those who may prefer bigger win SR when following strategies/systems, and less stress in terms of shorter losing runs etc…

Well, Flat S1 + S4 are, combined… 87 bets / 25 wins / 40 w|p / +37.6… so a 29% SR or so.

We shall see if that continues around that level, but such a SR means maximum losing run per 1000 bets of approx. 19.

S3A#is starting to look decent also, as it hits 100 bets. Logically, that should keep ticking over.

Many of you may just use the qualifiers/strategies as ‘starting points’/shortlists also, so hopefully that info is useful in that endeavour.  

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Tipping Update : Nick Mazur

As of close of play Monday…For Info, for those interested… Nick’s tips are now on +279 points this year I believe (Or +£1395 to £5 per point)….he sent me an update before Monday’s tips, which was +272.31 for 2018, and on my maths another +6.8 points or so on Monday. (another +10 or so on top of that from Tuesday!) That’s to advised stakes…generally 1 point EW, 1.5 point win every now and then, and to the prices he obtains. 

As always such info is shared to help make informed choices, and if you put the time and effort in to tip regularly in the comments, monthly updates or so are always welcome 🙂 – mainly as such info makes it more likely that others may start following you in, over time. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

39 Comments

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  • Nick Mazur
    Congratulations on your results and thank you so much for putting them up for all of us to benefit,only wished i had started backing them earlier!!!
    Cheers
    Colin

    colin leafe 26/06/18 7:13 PM Reply


    • So say all of us, another one pops in.
      Ta very much mate.

      westy2 26/06/18 8:53 PM Reply


    • Well said Colin. Couldn’t agree more. Brilliant tipping.

      Ken McKenzie 26/06/18 10:05 PM Reply


    • Likewise, I’m always last to join the party

      yarker 27/06/18 1:10 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh and Nick, made up for a (rare) poor day from SP2A.

    Johnnyb 26/06/18 9:01 PM Reply


  • Just wanted to echo the congratulations to Nick who has been on such an amazing run since and before no doubt I joined this site. Also well done Josh lovely winner and 2 places!

    Steven Clowes 26/06/18 9:19 PM Reply


    • ha, cheers. I’d have preferred the Hannon horse to do Nick’s on the line but wasn’t close enough to feel aggrieved, ran well, exciting for a time, and I’d have taken 1/3 before day started, and I follow all of Nick’s anyway, so can’t complain. My notes tips are still in a hovering phase, maybe if Nick ever hits a dip (which he hasn’t really done since September as yet!) I’ll step up to the plate. Thankfully my Festival form isn’t too shabby, so all in all, plenty of tipping profit to be found in various places.

      Josh 26/06/18 9:44 PM Reply


  • Thanks for all the kind words guys. I’m sure its not meant to be this easy and the gambling gods are about to smite me soon. Just the one again tomorrow in the easiest race of the day:

    El Principe Carlisle Wednesday 15:30 1pt e/w-I am not one to get sentimental about former picks but I am struggling to see why this one is so big. Won for us on his last start in a race which is looking extremely hot. The 2nd won by 6 lengths next time out. The 3rd was 2nd in his next two starts and the 4th was also 2nd next time out in a big Saturday York handicap. The fifth also won. In theory he should come on for his last run. He is only up 3lbs for that win. One of only 2 course winners in the field he once again gets pretty much ideal conditions. He is 3/3 in class 4 flat handicaps, 4/6, 5p with the hood and tongue tie in flat handicaps, 3/4, 4p going right handed, 3/6, 4p with Jane Elliott on board. Obviously he doesn’t have quite as good a draw here and field is much bigger however when he won here last year he was also drawn wide and most of the pace appears to be drawn even wider so if he comes out as fast as last time he should be able to race prominently.

    Nick Mazur 26/06/18 9:56 PM Reply


    • Well done today, I needed that 8/1 winner to negate a number of losing bets on Tuesday. The bottles should start their journey to you on Wednesday.

      martin colwell 26/06/18 10:37 PM Reply


      • Thanks Martin

        Nick Mazur 27/06/18 8:14 AM Reply


  • AW racing from Kempton tomorrow. Just one qualifier:
    6.10 Ventura Glory 7/1

    1 pt win

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 26/06/18 10:08 PM Reply


  • No LTO HC hrd winner qualifiers today.

    Others…
    4.20 Worcester – Knight Of Noir (trainer’s only runner)
    5.50 Bath – Final Rock (class droppers)
    7.10 Kempton – Destinata (class droppers)
    7.20 Bath – Secretfact (class droppers)
    8.10 Kempton Fire Tree (Fellowes sub-10/1 AW hcps)

    traf69 27/06/18 1:34 AM Reply


    • Secretfact NR

      chrisrees 27/06/18 8:56 AM Reply


      • Cheers, Chris

        traf69 27/06/18 8:58 AM Reply


  • one qualifier today,
    3-30 Carlisle. Vive La Difference 7-1 sky 5 places

    martin whittle 27/06/18 7:17 AM Reply


    • results update 33 selections 1 wins,6 places, staked 33 pts returns 15.5 pts down 17.5 pts

      martin whittle 27/06/18 6:51 PM Reply


  • We have our 7th bet in the ‘starting point’ chasers series, a 1%, £10 bet on Cabaret Queen 320W. Three wins from six bets so far.
    If you look a little deeper, this is a sharp raise in class from 0-120 to 0-140. Indeed, today’s top weight, Midnight Shot, was rated 140 but is here off 133, having been racing in Grade 3 races in the Spring.

    chrisrees 27/06/18 7:41 AM Reply


    • Another winner Bsp 5.35 (7/2), Stake £10 = + £41.30, bringing the profit from 7 bets to £112.66, £73 staked. POT 153%.

      chrisrees 27/06/18 3:34 PM Reply


      • Good work Chris. Have you a spreadsheet of selections to date to share?

        Paul Ebrey 27/06/18 8:08 PM Reply


  • Well done yesterday Josh, nice tip. I managed to back Roy Rocket as well so nice profit for a day.
    Today I’m on Casino Markets 1520 Worcester 1p WIN. I know top two look very strong but I think if anything can beat them it will be Casino Markets.
    Good luck with whatever you backing.

    Maz 27/06/18 7:47 AM Reply


  • Kempton 7:10 – Grace’s Secret 14/1 EW. Been running over a mile plus and was unlucky last time when having to check a couple of times when making headway in the last 2f and would surely have been a lot closer. Dropping back to 7f today.

    Chris R.

    broadsword 27/06/18 8:20 AM Reply


  • Morning, I cannot find anything to argue with the Nick Mazur bandwagon, or the sp2a tips in the 15:30, so, will go either side of those with the following.
    15:00 Carlisle
    WINDSOR CROSS 15/2 gen 1pt ew
    16:00 Carlisle
    TOR 13/2 gen 1pt ew

    Unfortunately no write ups, will hopefully get time tomorrow.

    Stewart 27/06/18 8:37 AM Reply


  • Going to risk my maiden forum selection. I was struggling to see Fingal’s Cave out the equation here and race has a good each way shape to it (as long as there are no further non runners). He has dropped to a very winnable mark and has performed better than the result suggests on the last 2 occasions. Perhaps Windsor cross will give them all something to aim at.

    Selection: Fingal’s Cave 3.00 Carlisle – 1 point each way @ 13/2

    Francis 27/06/18 8:48 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    A couple more recent ‘notes’
    C 3.00 – Pursuing Steed, 1st ran 12/6
    C 3.30 – Be Kool, 1st ran 15/6
    Mike

    Titus 27/06/18 9:15 AM Reply


    • Ah yes, missed those! Cheers.

      Josh 27/06/18 9:54 AM Reply


  • Chris M Selections:
    14:00 Carlisle – Lorton (2/1 gen) Eye
    14:50 Worcester – Gustave Mahler (13/2 gen) Eye
    15:30 Carlisle – Vive La Difference (6/1 gen) RTP
    15:30 Carlisle – El Principle (14/1 Bet365, WH) GG
    16:10 Salisbury – Burgonet (5/1 gen) GG
    17:00 Carlisle – Harvest Day (3/1 gen) GG
    17:40 Kempton – Twickenham (8/1 Lads, 15/2 gen) Eye
    18:00 Naas – Tracing (16/1 gen) Eye
    18:50 Bath – Strict Tempo (10/3 gen) Eye
    18:50 Bath – Klass Action (4/1 gen) Eye

    Good Luck with your bets today!

    Chris M 27/06/18 9:36 AM Reply


    • I’ve also backed Harvest Day, so fingers crossed.

      traf69 27/06/18 10:07 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Carlisle
    3.00 Strong Steps
    3.30 Mon Beau Visage
    3.30 Vive La Difference
    Worcester
    3.20 Fort Gabriel
    4.20 Rolling Maul
    Kempton
    8.40 Katie Gale
    8.40 Casemates Square

    colin leafe 27/06/18 10:29 AM Reply


  • Ascot review post if you fancy something to read! …

    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2018/06/27/royal-ascot-2018-review/

    Josh

    Josh 27/06/18 11:23 AM Reply


  • Today’s bets – 3.30 CAR, El Principe 20 each way and Calvados Spirit 30 win and Mon Beau Visage 30 each way. 4.00 CAR Theglasgowwarrior 15 each way and The Navigator 15 each way. 4.40 SAL Great Sound 15 each way.
    7.40 KP Sir Plato 15 each way.
    8.10 KP Sporting Times 20 win.
    8.40 KP Bird For Life 20 win.

    An 8/1 winner yesterday, a non runner and some losers, minus 47 on the day.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 27/06/18 1:18 PM Reply


    • Shouldn’t that be 4.7 Martin? Don’t think there were 50 races yesterday.

      Tim 27/06/18 2:26 PM Reply


      • I mean £’s. I will include the £ sign in future.

        martin colwell 27/06/18 2:31 PM Reply


        • Don’t you follow S2A Martin?

          neilmck 27/06/18 4:37 PM Reply


          • Speculate to Accumulate, not Josh’s S2A strategy.

            neilmck 27/06/18 4:38 PM Reply


    • yep Martin, if any of those are derived from paid services you follow/make up your portfolio etc, and are not your own musings etc, I’m not sure they should be posted here or anywhere else, if indeed that is the case 🙂
      Josh

      Josh 27/06/18 4:49 PM Reply


  • Another nice little R. Fell winner there. Taadawol at a healthy 16’s

    James M 27/06/18 3:10 PM Reply


    • Yep…he’s hitting some form now. That angle has taken a while to warm up but shows with no odds caps how quickly things can change…+28 in twour days to put it on +12 since live testing started. I’m going to have to stare at him some more as noted he may get an easy lead when looking this morning but clearly talked out of tipping for one reason or another. Annoying as a 16s winner would have helped somewhat! Hope you had a nibble. I did have change on this one,unlike yesterday’s when I had nothing.

      Josh 27/06/18 3:38 PM Reply


      • If you can roger fell is featured in this week’s outlook with some of his runners. Always worth a read

        Paul Ebrey 27/06/18 8:09 PM Reply


  • Anyone here following Billy Blakeman on twitter? He’s had a couple of huge prices winners in the last few days, including Lawmaking just now at 160s on betfair. Just got on in time!

    Max H 27/06/18 7:55 PM Reply


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