Members Daily Post: 26/06/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Beverley 

2.30 – Mujassam (micro TJC + m dist) ES+H1 I3 G3 5/1 S2 S3A# S4 2nd 5/1>10/3

3.00 – Fire Leopard (4yo+ 5 yrs, 4yo+, + m TJC) ES+I3 6/1 S3A UP

3.30 – 

Pioneering (4yo+ 5 yrs, 4yo+,+m TJC/age) ES+I3 G3 8/1 S3A# UP

Jacbequick (4yo+ 5 yrs, 4yo+) ES+I3 11/1 S3A  UP

Music Seeker (m dist) w1 H3 7/1 UP

Brighton

2.15 – 

Blistering Dancer (m dist) 22/1 

Harrison Stickle (m class) H3 I3 G1 7/1 S2 S4 S6  WON 7/1>6/1 

3.15 – 

Super Julius (all hncps 5 yrs, all hncps) ES+I3 9/2 S3A UP

Jack Taylor (m TJC) H3 G3 5/2 S5 2nd 

3.45 – 

On A May Day (all hncps 5 yrs) w1 14ES+H1 I3 G3 2/5 S2 S3A# S4 WON 1/3 

Stormbound (all hncps) G3 7/1 UP

4.15 – Junoesque (m class) H3 I3 6/1  WON 6/1>8/1 

4.45 – Ravenhoe (all hncps 5 yrs) ES+H3 I3 7/2 S3A#  UP

5.15 – Roy Rocket (all hncps) H3  7/2 WON 7/2>3/1 

 

Newbury

8.45 – Haylah (m runs) 20/1 3rd 10/1 

 

JUMPS

Newton Abbot 

None. 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 13/151,49p, -3) (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +156)

NOTES

2.15 Bright – Harrison Stickle – 1 point win – 15/2 (lad/WH/BetB) 7/1 (gen)  WON 7/1>5/1 

2.30 Bev- Mujassam – 1 point win – 5/1 (gen) 2nd 5/1>10/3 

8.45 Newb- Haylah – 1 point win – 25/1 (WH/PP/BV) 22/1 (gen) 3rd 20/1>10/1…decent run, no complaints…she probably needed the eventual winner to get into a pace battle early on, but ran on well and was exciting for a time. At least we lost to Nick’s only tip on the day! She will win races on this evidence, a stiffer 6f or maybe even 7f. I’m not sure why she was ridden so far back but I suppose when stepping one up in trip you are more cautious. Were she just behind the pace it may have been very interesting. 

that’s all for tips, (08.53), write ups on way…

Harrison Stickle... he felt a bit overpriced to my eyes although he seems unsteady in the market and it is a C6 handicap at Brighton after all, but I couldn’t help myself. He hits a few strategies and is top rated on Geegeez speed ratings, some way clear of plenty in here. Provided he breaks on terms- or even if he does miss it slightly as he can do- I thought he should be able to get the lead here. The Loughnane horse has been front running for previous connections but over further, so may not have the pace to do so. The selection ran well LTO after a break, very nearly clinging on but getting run out of it late. I suspect he will strip fitter here and a repeat of that run should put him in the mix. He’s 7lb below his one flat win, and returns to fast ground which I thought should suit. Hopefully he reacts positively to the blinkers again, but that’s always a risk. The trainer is 5/21,9p, +44 in C6 handicaps here in the last 5 years. You’d maybe like the trainer to be in better form, but it’s hard to know if he’s out of form, given the majority of his runners in recent weeks have gone off 16s+. The track is an unknown, rattling down this hill on fast ground, but if he can keep his balance, his running style is ideal and this may be the perfect trip for him around here. He is still low mileage enough and with any luck will give me a run for my money. 

Mujassam…this one looked intriguing given he arrives in some sort of form, having ‘ran on’ the last day at Chester over 6f, getting too far back and not given a hard time, but finishing well enough/like a horse on ok terms with himself. Today…well, he moves back up in trip which should suit, drops into a C5 handicap for the first time in his career and Danny T jumps back on for the first time in a few runs. They also remove the blinkers for the first time in 14 runs or so I think, and replace it with the visor, which he has won in. 3 starts ago at Ripon he ran a cracker in a C4 over 6f, which is probably too sharp for him, splitting a stablemate who’s since come out and won twice, and another who’s won since off 75 in a C4. Were he to repeat that effort he would go very close here. I thought it looked between him and the Fav, and hence there was some mileage in this price. He is a bit tricky but I expect him to be up there early, more prominent, maybe tracking SDS. I wouldn’t be shocked if these two were 1-2 in a certain order, but we shall see. (fun forecast options maybe) I was happy to have a play and I’d say he is the one I’m most confident on of the three, poor bugger. 

Haylah...clearly a poke here but price is generally irrelevant for Hannon, and especially at Newbury… Hannon is 4/21,7p in 6f handicaps here… he is 10/31,14p, +65 SP in class 5 handicaps here over the last 5 years (that’s a micro I should probably save/track!) including winners at 16/1 and 20/1. 3/5,3p in C5 handicaps over 6f. This is probably a deep enough race for the grade given the number of previous winners/those bang in form…but a few of those have gone up plenty in the weights and have new questions to answer. And, in this price range, I’m more likely to focus on the horse and see if I can make a case…well, she is lightly raced/unexposed and ran well enough here last Sept on her first career start. It could be she arrives bang out of form here, but at this price I’ll assume she just hated the blinkers and maybe didn’t like Goodwood either LTO. She’s back at a more conventional track today, headgear dispensed. Of more interest was the step back up to 6f on turf. Ignoring her last run, she ran ok on the two starts before that, looking outpaced before staying on. I just wanted to see her over 6f at a galloping track, with a pace to aim at. Given those stats above, and the fact that one day she should show more in handicaps, I was willing to roll the dice at 25/1. Her mark is falling and she goes into a handicap for older horses for the first time, getting the weight for age allowance. So, something different again. We shall see. But, at least I’ve stumbled across that Hannon class micro and that may win us 50+ points over the coming seasons, you never know.  

 

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Recent Tips(from section 2/’notes’ horses) 

(running total, from 07/06/18: 3/23,10p, +13.5) 

7.30 Newton A – Highbury High (1st run since tipped) 

9.15 Newb – Sayesse (2nd run since tipped) 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

2.30 Bee- Zylan WON 14/1 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update 

Results Update  (4thJune- 24thJune) 

Summary below, links in Key for Jumps + Flat Strategies will be updated asap

Summary

TOTAL (strategies) (Section 1):

  • JUMPS – S1 (/) S2 (1/33,5p, -18, -27 BFSP) S2A (subset of S2… 0/8,0p, -8) S3 (2/10,3p, +10) S3A (3/18,4p, -1/5) S4 (/) S5 (0/10,0p, -10)
  • FLAT 2018: S1 (3/10,5p, +5.25) S2 (7/26,12p, +13.75) S3A (1/18,2p, -12) S4 (4/15,8p, +6.75) S5 (3/10,5p, +6) S6 (2/21,8p, -5, -8 BFSP)

TEST ZONE

  • Jumps angles: 1/29,6p, -23.5
  • Flat: (Fell) 1/20,6p, -17

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago w1 / w2)

  • Jumps: 3/15,4p, -3.25 (w1 : 3/10,3p, +1.75, w20/5,1p, -5)
  • Flat: 4/20,1p, +4.5 (w13/8,5p, +12.5, w2 1/12,5p, -8)

Handicap Debut (jumps+flat): 0/3,0p, -3

S3A# – S3A Double/Treble rated (jumps+flat): 2/14,5p, 3/10,3p, +3.5

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Where To Begin? ‘Advised’ Portfolio Ideas

(based on the report/link in The Key… ‘The Strategies: Where should you start’)

Flat: S1 (3/10,5p, +5.25, 2018 – 10/30,13p, +19) S4 (4/15,8p, +6.75, 2018 – 15/57,27p, +18.6 ) S6 (2/21,8p, -5, -8 BFSP, 2018 – 6/66,17p, +9, +27 BFSP)

Jumps: S2A (0/8,0p, -8, 2018 – 7/100,21p, +40, +65.5 BFSP)

Total 4th-24thJune: 9/54,21p, -1, -4 BFSP

Total 2018 (1 point win):  253 bets / 38 wins / 78 w|p / +86.6 (early/bog) / +130.1 (BFSP)

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Selected others

S3A#(ES+ double/treble rated):

Total (Jumps/Flat): 100 bets / 29 wins / 45 w|p / +38.75 (early/bog)

‘In-Form Horses’

Those section 1 stats qualifiers Flat + jumps  that WON last time out (w1) are now, since being tracked from 12thFeb 2018:

113 bets / 26 wins / 39w|p / +20.8 (early/bog)

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The ‘where to begin’ ideas, as a portfolio after 253 bets are operating at a 15% win SR.

That does mean iffy losing runs every now and then… 43 max (approx.) every 1000 bets, and everything in between, multiple times. That win SR is down to the ‘bigger odds’ strategies that are Flat S6 and Jumps S2A, which are not for the faint hearted, if following systematically. As with everything I do it’s about offering options/ideas to suit your own betting style/tolerance etc. 

For those who may prefer bigger win SR when following strategies/systems, and less stress in terms of shorter losing runs etc…

Well, Flat S1 + S4 are, combined… 87 bets / 25 wins / 40 w|p / +37.6… so a 29% SR or so.

We shall see if that continues around that level, but such a SR means maximum losing run per 1000 bets of approx. 19.

S3A#is starting to look decent also, as it hits 100 bets. Logically, that should keep ticking over.

Many of you may just use the qualifiers/strategies as ‘starting points’/shortlists also, so hopefully that info is useful in that endeavour.  

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Tipping Update : Nick Mazur

For Info, for those interested… Nick’s tips are now on +279 points this year I believe (Or +£1395 to £5 per point)….he sent me an update before yesterday’s tips, which was +272.31 for 2018, and on my maths another +6.8 points or so yesterday. That’s to advised stakes…generally 1 point EW, 1.5 point win every now and then, and to the prices he obtains. 

As always such info is shared to help make informed choices, and if you put the time and effort in to tip regularly in the comments, monthly updates or so are always welcome 🙂 Mainly as such info makes it more likely that others may start following you in, in time. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

33 Comments

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  • 630NA Findusatgorcombe would be a qualifier for the starting points chasers but for the fact that its 21 day absence, since its win, breaches the 20 day qualifying limit. In this time of limited opportunities ‘over the sticks’ one could choose to ignore that, whilst not seeing it as an ‘official’ selection.
    However, the presence of the chasing bred, Walter Oneeightone, in blinkers at this low level and extreme trip, made me think afresh, especially as his trainer, Jonjo, so often out of form has scored 3 winners from his last five runners – and both the others were placed.
    Tread v. quietly around the exchanges and the bookies with this one, overnight, or it might vanish in the morning and see if the present 12/1 is available after 10am, not having been withdrawn.

    chrisrees 25/06/18 7:55 PM Reply


  • Nice to keep the run going. Just the one for tomorrow:

    Global Excel Newbury Tuesday 20:45 1pt e/w-Price taken 15/2 4 places

    Nick Mazur 25/06/18 9:32 PM Reply


    • Was looking at this race while my wife watches Eastf***ingenders and I keep coming back to the form of last years race
      Swanton Blue – in form and handles g/f, 2nd last year
      Deeds not Words – 15lb better off than last year so huge weight pull and obvious why money has come already, got to make up 2.5 lengths but 15lb is a help.
      Indian Affair – capable but form of trainer is concern.

      Despite the weight pull I still fancy Swanton to finish ahead again – 13/2.

      gallou 25/06/18 10:15 PM Reply


    • Class again my friend. Cracking stuff.

      Jim 26/06/18 8:54 PM Reply


    • Well done Nick, different gravy…

      Stewart 26/06/18 8:55 PM Reply


    • Wow well done Nick

      Darren 26/06/18 9:03 PM Reply


    • Lovely. Had Josh’s ew at 18 so a lovely result in that

      Max H 26/06/18 9:08 PM Reply


      • Wise move Max haha. Wasn’t quite close enough for me to be aggrieved. Great run for my money and Nick’s winning ensured a decent result on race so can’t complain.

        Josh 26/06/18 9:12 PM Reply


    • fantastic selection Nick, got me just in front today, thank you!

      Paul Ebrey 26/06/18 9:10 PM Reply


    • Tremendous again, cheers!

      Chris Murrell 26/06/18 9:17 PM Reply


  • Received the following text message earlier which may be of interest to some. Would appear the trainer has a decent record at the track too. Drifted out to a nice price too now

    ‘Ann Duffield sends one horse from leyburn (n Yorks) to Brighton tomorrow .It’s 11/2 – nifty niece in the 2.15 Connor Beasley only has one ride there too

    Chris Sengelow 25/06/18 10:24 PM Reply


  • Fantastic as ever Nick many thanks for all your efforts

    christopher jones 25/06/18 10:43 PM Reply


  • Unfortunately no winners tonight. Three 2nds, two of which were very close. Keep hitting the crossbar. Could do with a few more in the onion bag (that’s the last of the footie metaphors tonight). Probably the best result of the night was 2 NR’s reducing the deficit to -8pts 🙂

    Next AW racing comes from Kempton on Wed. Back tomorrow with qualifiers.

    Ken McKenzie 25/06/18 11:13 PM Reply


  • just one for today,
    16.15 Brighton.Lutine Charlie 33-1

    martin whittle 26/06/18 2:39 AM Reply


  • After Sunday and yesterday, trying to keep the run going, got a few today though eek.
    No write ups unfortunately, work dictates i`m out early.
    17:00 Beverley
    FOXY BOY 9/1 gen 1pt ew
    THORNABY PRINCESS 20/1 gen 1pt ew
    20:45 Newbury
    SWANTON BLUE 13/2 gen 1pt ew
    PICKET LINE 14/1 gen 1pt ew
    21:15 Newbury
    DANECASE 7/1 gen 1pt ew
    CHETAN 25/1 gen 1pt ew

    Good luck with whatever you back today.

    Stewart 26/06/18 6:52 AM Reply


  • Xtra recent Note
    Be3.00 – Vincents Forever, 1st run since 15/6

    Titus 26/06/18 6:58 AM Reply


  • I am on 2 today.
    NA 1830 – Lanta’s Legacy 14/1 Skybet
    NA 2035 – Tea Time Fred 11/ Skybet
    First one I backed at 25/1 last night it 14s now but I got a feeling it will drift again. I hope for a good runs from both of them.
    Good luck with your selections.

    maz 26/06/18 7:26 AM Reply


  • LTO Hcp Hrd Winners
    8.00 Newton Abbot – Saxo Jack
    8.35 Newton Abbot – Mogestic

    Others…
    3.15 Brighton – Arzaak (trainers only runner)
    4.00 Beverley – Hilborough (class dropper)
    6.00 Newton Abbot – Leoro (trainers only runner)
    7.40 Newbury – Teodoro (2nd outing in 90 days)
    8.00 Newton Abbot – Kohuma (trainers only runner)
    8.10 Newbury – Face Like Thunder (2nd outing in 90 days)

    traf69 26/06/18 8:28 AM Reply


    • A couple of 5/1 winners and one at 11/4 is enough to put a smile on my face.

      traf69 27/06/18 1:22 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Beverley
    3.00 Fire Leopard
    5.00 Etienne Gerard
    Brighton
    4.15 Vodka Pigeon

    colin leafe 26/06/18 9:35 AM Reply


    • Nice little 11/1 winner there Colin.

      Nick Mazur 26/06/18 5:06 PM Reply


      • Oh baby, got double figures too. Thanks Colin!

        Francis 26/06/18 5:59 PM Reply


    • well done Colin.

      Paul Ebrey 26/06/18 9:10 PM Reply


  • Poor day yesterday, one winner at low odds. Two of the picks were BD so we have no idea if they would have won, frustrating.

    Chris M Selections:
    15:30 Beverley – Music Seeker (7/1 gen) RTP
    15:30 Beverley – Detachment (7/2 gen) Eye
    16:00 Beverley – Claramara (6/1 WH, 11/2 gen) Eye
    16:45 Brighton – Ravenhoe (4/1 gen) RTP
    16:45 Brighton – Cosmogyral (6/1 Bet365, 5/1 gen) Eye
    18:40 Newbury – Iconic Choice (7/4 gen) Eye
    19:00 Newton Abbot – Double Treasure (7/4 gen) GG
    19:00 Newton Abbot – The Last But One (7/2 gen) GG & OCP * Advised as 2 point bet

    Good luck with your bets today!

    Chris M 26/06/18 9:35 AM Reply


  • Yesterday I mentioned CUBSWIN for Bryony Frost 4s>11/2 along with 2 outsiders.
    A 3.5pts profit.
    Bryony has 2 rides for her dad today but have left them, Hmm?

    My main mention today …No Stats only I like the TJC S Bowen/N Hawke their only horse at NA 6.30.

    My other 2 are
    Earthly 5.15Br
    Wicked Sea 8.10 Newb

    Mike

    mickeydee 26/06/18 11:53 AM Reply


  • Tips – None today. Mins 20.25 points in June! Ouch.

    Todays bets – 2.30 Bev Mywayorthehighway 15 each way and The British Lion 20 each way. 3.00 Bev Be Perfect 40 win.
    6.40 Nb Pass The Gin 25 win. 7.40 Nb C’est No Moir 60 win. 8.45 Nb Global Excel 20 each way and Whitecrest 15 each way.
    8.00 NA Saxo Jack 15 each way.

    martin colwell 26/06/18 12:53 PM Reply


  • Hi all.can anyone help me out regarding 2.15 Brighton.ive read a comment on here and 1 in racingpost referring to Anne duffields record at the track.i can only find 2 runs since 2009.both finished unplaced.am I missing something ? Cheers

    benalex 26/06/18 1:54 PM Reply


    • Yep the stats refer to the 2007 and 2007 seasons I think… she is 4/9,6p since 2006, but all those winners over those two years. She is 0/3,0p since then, a runner in 2010, one in 2015 and today’s runner the first since then, from what I can see in HorseRaceBase.

      Josh 26/06/18 2:12 PM Reply


  • Great win Josh nice start of the day

    christopher JONES 26/06/18 2:19 PM Reply


  • Zylan lands at big odds for the R Fell micro system,what a start for the day

    christopher jones 26/06/18 2:36 PM Reply


    • hmm, sadly I didn’t even have a saver on him! Bugger…although that test angle was -18 since start, before today. So, a welcome 14/1 winner for that. I’d have preferred that winner not to have got an easy lead/the rail, and for mine to be less of a monkey! But, that’s low grade animals for you. We shall see if Hannon’s can do anything, but I’d have taken 1/3 before day started.
      Josh

      Josh 26/06/18 2:39 PM Reply


  • must admit i needed that today my high risk strategy has been a bit dodgy lately but when it’s made profits for 17 months you don’t just ditch it after a bad month. 4 winners today with still 3 biggies to run.
    2/3 pt @ 17.5
    2pts @7.0
    1.5pts @ 5.0
    3pts @ 8.13

    martin whittle 26/06/18 6:00 PM Reply


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