Royal Ascot Day 4: (complete)

Ah, Day 3 was a poor one, but a game of fine margins…nearly a 14/1 winner of the lucky last to give a profit for the ‘through the card’ selections. Sadly those notes stand at a 16 point loss after three days, doing my best to give back the +33 points from York on Saturday. Still, we march on, and it will only take a couple of nice winners to turn the ship around.  Yet again I failed to get the top of the market right and specifically the Aidan O’Brien runners. The trainer race pointers/micro stats are finding winners, I just need to land on more of them in the non handicaps – which have never been races I focus on, and it appears to be telling! The handicaps have gone ok, still, I’ll soldier on and try my best… 

 

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Onto Royal Ascot, Day 4…

 

Race In Focus

Sandringham Stakes

10/195,39 places

9/9 (with UK/Irish runs) had placed at least once last two runs

  • Had not: 0/56,6p

9/10 had 2+ runs this season

  • 0-1: 1/67,9p

8/10 Top 10 in weights (8/106,22p)

  • 11thor worse: 2/89,17p
  • 5/10 Top 4 in the weights (5/50,15p)

Other

  • Yet to run over 1m: 0/43,10p
  • Yet to win over 7f+ : 1/54,12p
  • Ran 46+ days ago: 0/44, 6p

Trainer: no trainer has won this more than once in last decade.

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Shortlist: those first 4 stats (which could exclude the winner…)  leave…

Dathanna / Ship of Dreams / Hence / Di Fede / Tajaanus

 

Thoughts… my main focus is on HENCE / POETIC CHARM / BETTY F 

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Stats Report Qualifiers

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Trainers/jockeys

2.30 – Fairyland (1+10)/ Just Wonderful (1) / Angels Hideaway (2) 

3.05 – Old Persian (4)/ Ras Atoil (2) / Elector (3, 12/1<) 

3.40 – Actress (1) / Fleet Review (1) / Sioux Nation (1) / Heartache (20/1<) 

4.20 – Aim or Artemis 

5.00 – Agrotera (6) 

5.35 – Walton Street / Eynhallow 

Sires 

3.40 – Sioux Nation 

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Other Notes/Pointers/Thoughts

Trainer Race Pointers

Those with 2 or more winners in the race, with runners…

2.30 -Cotubanama (3/15,5p) 

3.05 – Elector (4/17,9p) / Raa Atoll (3/18,10p) 

3.40  / 

4.20 – Clemmie (3/26,7p) / Veracious (2/11,4p) / Aim of Artemis (2/18,9p) 

5.00 / 

5.35 – Fire Fighting (3/24,6p) / 

 

Through The Card

2.30 – Fairyland / Cotubanama (fun EW) 

3.05 – Delano Roosevelt / Rastropovich

3.40 – Sioux Nation / Fleet Review (EW) 

4.20 – Alpha Cetauri 

5.00 -Hence / Poetic Charm / Betty F 

5.35 – Walton Street / Eynhallow 

 

GL with any bets, Josh 

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8 Comments

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  • World Cup – Sods law I have been going well and then when I begin to post tips here they drop off. Anyway, I do not believe in luck or superstition and so today we will go with:

    Serbia at 15/8 for 5 points. I do like this one as I think Switzerland are overrated and lack goal threat and so Serbia can beat them if they can control their temperament.

    I also like Iceland at 2/1 to beat Nigeria. Iceland are solid and I do not rate Nigeria. Low scoring I think?

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 22/06/18 10:59 AM Reply


  • Like you Josh, a poor day yesterday with the Stradivarius / Vazirabad selection the only successful one.

    Nevertheless, looking to bounce back today if we can with.

    230 Really hard to narrow down the field to fewer than 4-5, but have opted for Just Wonderful and Angel’s Hideaway (ew)

    305 Old Persian and Giuseppe Garibaldi (ew)

    340 Sioux Nation and Equilateral

    420 Not many trends to base upon but have opted for Clemmie and Threading (ew)

    500 Dathanna and Ganayem (both ew)

    535 Thundering Blue and Count Calabash (both ew)

    GL today

    Simon 22/06/18 12:33 PM Reply


  • More frustration yesterday with the National Stakes form proving not good enough for the Norfolk. The problem with my approach which when there are several joint top rated, depends on whether I’ve seen them can lead to over optimism as the best I’ve seen may not be good enough.

    This is the second poor Royal Ascot in a row so no selections today at Ascot in the Albany. Main Edition is the one I’ve seen and very impressive she was in winning a weakish heat at Windsor however I had some reservations about her rating her 84 which I doubt is good enough to win this.

    Over at Newmarket Alnasherat re-appears, he was 3rd behind Fanaar on debut and I would think it will take a group class horse to beat him. Not sure that Quorto who is second in will be that so 11/10 whilst not exactly value does not look that bad. Too short for me though.
    Hugh

    alpha2 22/06/18 12:56 PM Reply


  • Fun bet 2.30 Albany Pretty Polyanna, currently 40’s on Bf Sportsbook paying 4 places. Won an ok maiden at Yarmouth last week hands and heels despite running green, by Oasis Dream and Sylvestre up today.
    Hugh

    alpha2 22/06/18 1:27 PM Reply


    • Just had a few quid on it before reading your message Hugh, so I guess I’ll have a few more. Fingers crossed!

      neilmck 22/06/18 1:48 PM Reply


  • Oh bloody hell, shoot me!

    alpha2 22/06/18 2:41 PM Reply


    • Josh is normally on hand to offer the services of his Opus Dei Whip if you so feel the need Hugh.

      Nick Mazur 22/06/18 3:24 PM Reply


      • I’m in process of ordering another one I think! 🙂

        Josh 22/06/18 3:33 PM Reply


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