Members Daily Post: 22/06/18 (complete)

TIPS x5 (+write up), Section 1 (comp), test zone , Royal Ascot (comp)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Redcar

3.30 – Kit Marlowe (all hncps + going/age) 15/2 UP

5.20 – Laubali (m class/age) I3 10/1  2nd 

 

Newmarket (July) 

9.05 – Atalanta Belle (all hncps) 14 I3 8/1 

 

Ayr 

5.55 –

Cliff Bay (m dist) G3 12/1  UP

Eyreborn (m dist) 33/1 UP

 Millie The Minx (m class) G1 33/1 S6  UP

7.40 – Gworn (m TJC) 14,30  13/2 

8.10 – Over Fly (m dist) H3 I1 G3 5/1 S2 S4 S5 

8.45 – Corton Lass (m dist) 16/1 

9.15 – My Valentino (m class) G3 11/1 

 

Ascot 

None. 

 

Wetherby 

No stats profile this season. 

 

JUMPS

Market Rasen 

4.35 – Psychocandy (nov hncps) I3 11/2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 12/147,45p, -7)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +105.5)

NO Notes tips today. 

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FESTIVAL TIPS: ROYAL ASCOT 2018

(running total = 1/15,1p, -4)

Ah bugger, said with hindsight but taken on the wrong favs there! Both winners no shock but I can’t help but take them on, and will continue to do so, maybe betting 1 more point than I should have but there we go. A good start to the week, the Wokingham to rescue it! 

5.00 Ascot 

Hence – 1.5 points win– 14/1 (bet365/BetFr/ToteS/) 16s places, 12/1 (gen) UP

Poetic Charm – 1.5 points win – 14/1 (gen) 16s odd place UP

Betty F – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) 18s/20s odd place UP

 

5.35 Ascot

Walton Street – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) 3rd

Eynhallow – 1 point win – 11/1 (gen) 12/1 (bet365) UP

 

5.00 –

My Festival week could hinge on this race as I’m strangely bullish, hence the 1.5 points for two of them. No doubt I’ll be left with egg on my face but there is plenty to like about these three… Hence… shows up well on my trends shortlist and is in the top 4 in the weights, which have produced half the winners of this race in the last decade. This one comes here with solid handicap form, looks progressive and likely plenty more to come, has a G1 entry, and like all of AOBs here this will have been the plan/they will be tuned to run their race. He’s only had 3 runner in this to date, one of them placing. The draw is a bit confusing this week but there is pace her side and she is a double figure price. The top 6 of the market have dominated this race since it’s inception, and those 12/1 or under SP have generally been the place to focus. No doubt this will now be the year a biggie goes in! This one is very well bred also, and Moore rides. I thought there was plenty to like. Poetic Charm… in a way I suppose I have focussed on connections that have done well already here this week… AOB/Moore/Appleyby/Buick/Dettori… and this one looks the most intriguing here… a proper ‘could be anything’ sort that could have stacks in hand stepping up in trip on handicap debut. Appleby had a 20/1 winner of the race that follows last year who was retiring after 370 odd days off, and I’d like to think this has been the plan. The trainer|jockey stats are solid and at double figures, drawn high, I was happy to take a stab. She is another who is very very well bred here and I thought looked the most interesting. Betty F…is a bit more of a flyer I think but she comes from canny connections and the bookie of Dettori caught the eye, especially when Gosden has one in this. Whether there is anything in that who knows, but Noseda knows the time of day, has a very good track record, and she is out of Frankel. Again, you’d like to think this has been the plan and these conditions – stiff 8f on GF, could bring the best out of her. Hopefully these two may have it between them on the nearside come the end. 

I should mention Agrotera, WON  who at 6s is short enough for me in a race like this… she has Spencer on, and again it’s the straight 8f here. The trainer is 0/36 in the last 14 days, although 10 have placed, and like many in here is clearly inexperienced. But, she has been impressive to date and could well be ahead of her mark. But, I just can’t take that sort of price in a race like this and if she beats me, so be it.

5.35 –

I have kept this simple and stuck with last year’s winning trainer, and the two horses that hit my micro angle for his runners here. Appleby is 10/31,14p in 14f handicaps with horses returning after 60+ days (1/5,2p at Ascot) and he knows what it takes to with this race. Both of these have shown a decent enough level of form yet still look unexposed, especially over this distance. A big field/strong pace looks sure to suit them both. There is a question over the going but with any luck they improve for it. It’s more an unknown, both with solid form on good. 

Dash of Spice WON is short enough but could clearly bolt up again. I don’t think he will get an easy lead here like LTO and he has been thumped in the weights. Thundering Blue seems short enough in a race like this given he has to prove he stays/will handle conditions. 

So, 5 pokes there and a 6 point outlay. Hopefully one of them can do the business, and I can dream of winning both races! Clearly I may not have mentioned the winner of either but Ascot is like that – bloody tough going. GL with any bets. 

 

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Recent Tips(from section 2/’notes’ horses) 

(running total, from 07/06/18: 3/20,8p, +16.5) 

7.40 Ayr – Parole (tipped LTO, non runner)

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

7.50 Weth- Justice Pleasing

8.25 Weth – Plansina

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Jumps

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.35 MR – Sissinghurst

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Royal Ascot Day 4

tbc. Well, Corgi at 14s couldn’t quite dig me out of a whole as with Wednesday’s last race winner, so a poor day for ‘through the card’ and the Festival Tips – sadly the winner wasn’t on my trends/stats so I wasn’t close to him. I still can’t believe SDS got such an easy time of it, but maybe his horse is just very good and he sustained a relentless gallop. Great ride and performance. Anyway, onto Day 4, where various thoughts will follow in due course. A very close friend and his wife are off to Ascot for the day and have asked for Tips, so I hope my ‘through the card’ efforts can improve. 

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Day 4 Top Rated (HRB/GG/Inform) 

2.30 – Fairyland / Fairyland / Angels Hideaway|Main Edition (Irish not rated) 

3.05 – Old Persian / Rostropovich / Rostropovich 

3.40 – Invincible Army / Sioux Nation / Heartache 

4.20 – Billesdon Brook / Alpha Centauri / Clemmie 

5.00 – Dathanna / Desert Diamond / Tajaanus|Di Fede 

5.35 – Dash of Spice / Appeared / Dash of Spice 

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From free post…

Race In Focus

Sandringham Stakes

10/195,39 places

9/9 (with UK/Irish runs) had placed at least once last two runs

  • Had not: 0/56,6p

9/10 had 2+ runs this season

  • 0-1: 1/67,9p

8/10 Top 10 in weights (8/106,22p)

  • 11thor worse: 2/89,17p
  • 5/10 Top 4 in the weights (5/50,15p)

Other

  • Yet to run over 1m: 0/43,10p
  • Yet to win over 7f+ : 1/54,12p
  • Ran 46+ days ago: 0/44, 6p

Trainer: no trainer has won this more than once in last decade.

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Shortlist: those first 4 stats (which could exclude the winner…)  leave…

Dathanna / Ship of Dreams / Hence / Di Fede / Tajaanus

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Stats Report Qualifiers

ROYAL ASCOT STATS REPORT HERE>>> 

 

Trainers/jockeys

2.30 – Fairyland (1+10)/ Just Wonderful (1) / Angels Hideaway (2) 

3.05 – Old Persian (4)/ Ras Atoil (2) / Elector (3, 12/1<) 

3.40 – Actress (1) / Fleet Review (1) / Sioux Nation (1) / Heartache (20/1<) 

4.20 – Aim or Artemis 

5.00 – Agrotera (6) 

5.35 – Walton Street / Eynhallow 

Sires 

3.40 – Sioux Nation 

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Other Notes/Pointers/Thoughts

Trainer Race Pointers

Those with 2 or more winners in the race, with runners…

2.30 -Cotubanama (3/15,5p) 

3.05 – Elector (4/17,9p) / Raa Atoll (3/18,10p) 

3.40  / 

4.20 – Clemmie (3/26,7p) / Veracious (2/11,4p) / Aim of Artemis (2/18,9p) 

5.00 / 

5.35 – Fire Fighting (3/24,6p) / 

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Through The Card

2.30 – Fairyland / Cotubanama (fun EW) 

3.05 – Delano Roosevelt / Rastropovich

3.40 – Sioux Nation / Fleet Review (EW) 

4.20 – Alpha Cetauri 

5.00 -Hence / Poetic Charm / Betty F 

5.35 – Walton Street / Eynhallow 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

33 Responses

  1. Recent Tips

    A 7.40 – Parole, 1st noted 25/5 up@25, 2nd run W@16, sp8. Re-noted 14/6 nr, and Josh keen if his 1st update today is anything to go by. hehe

    also running
    M 4.35 – Classical Milano, 1st noted 11/11 up@20. had 3 unp’d runs since.
    ………….Psychocandy, 1st noted 9/4 up@16. Placed each of 3 runs since.
    M 3.55 – Lithic, 1st tipped 3m+ 16/2, up@9. 1st run since then.
    Mike

  2. What follows won’t tally with Josh’s figures as the qualifying dates don’t match and I’ve used my bog odds. I’ll keep it as short and informative as possible. ALL tips from 3/10/17 to 20/6/18

    NOTES
    253 runners
    31 winners @ 71.00 profit. 12% s/r
    222 2nd runs
    18 wins @ 8.25 loss. 8% s/r
    145 3rd runs
    15 wins @ 62.50 profit. 17.4% s/r
    59 have still to run a 3rd race.

    I’ll keep an eye on over 3 runs too as so far the longest losing run is 7 and both won @20+ and there are a few 4/5 runs that have won at decent odds but not enough data yet.

    3M+

    127 runners
    11 winners @ 49.00 profit. 8.6% s/r
    10 2nd runs
    5 wins @ 41.00 profit. 50% s/r
    1 3rd run
    1 winner @ 6

    FESTIVAL

    74 runners
    7 wins @ 104.00 profit. 9.5% s/r
    5 2nd runs
    1 win @ 6.00 profit. 20% s/r
    1 3rd run
    0 winner

    Hope that reads clearly. If any queries just ask.
    Mike

  3. Nice to get back to winning today.

    Planetaria Redcar Friday 16:45 1pt e/w Price taken 10/1
    Arigato Newmarket Friday 19:30 1pt e/w Price taken 12/1
    Sumkindofking Market Rasen Friday 15:55 1pt e/w Price taken 10/1

    1. Laugh Out Loud or LOL if you prefer Nick, you’re never that far away!! Even when you get a bad run you come back with a bang!!

      On another note, a poker note, I’m thinking of the Goliath and wondering if you had any advice for how to play the relentless day 1’s? Maybe it’s not your thing, but if you’ve played it how did you find it?
      I’m thinking go on Sunday and if I bust go on Monday then have a break and go again Wednesday/Thursday giving a break on Friday. I get it that that maybe too many bullets for some but come on, there’s got to be a lot of rubbish play in those Day 1’s and I fancy my chances of being in Day 2 at least on that basis! After that then who knows…not really played any multi day events though so I’m thinking 2 consecutive bullets then a break may help if I get through. If luck is not on my side in that then there’s always the side events!!

      1. Thanks Chris. I’ve never had the chance to play it so I can’t really comment. Normally I’ve very much preferred firing one bullet as it tends to focus you more.

      2. There are lots of runners in the Goliath. Overall the standard is not high but it is a tournament you play for low stakes with a big prize at the end. There is a lot of randomness in this tournament and a bit of a lottery. When I played regularly I had a stab at it for low stakes and was going to fire two bullets but in the end went far enough that I only needed one. If you are used to playing long days then fine but what I find in such tournaments is that a lot of players tire late and lose concentration. So a slow steady star and them move up the pace as the tournament progresses.

        Good luck.

        1. Thanks Martin, that’s worth remembering many players will tire late on, I hope to be more aggressive late on to try and increase my stack for day 2 or go busy and ‘re enter rather than go back short.

    2. Shout out to Nick – on Sumkindofking at 10/1 this morning for a nice win and a place with Planetaria at 8/1!!

  4. Here’s my selections taken from a certain fellows Ascot service who gives best trend fits and a ratings shortlist! Yeah you know who it is! So no skills required or credit due if I win! He done ok on Thursday and all week as well with some big price runner ups too. I did manage to find a nice Prezzie last night from my systems at 40/1 drifting from the 28/1 BOG that I took the night before fearing a price crash!!, so hence the Ascot multiple madness which will be added to once Ian sends his email or Josh ramps up his festival prowess once more! Well you’ve gotta speculate to accumulate when things like that happen haven’t you? feels like free money today!
    Here goes nothing-
    15:40 Invincible Army, Sands of Mali
    17:00 Qazyna, Ship of Dreams, Broadway
    17:35 Top Tug, Manjaam
    All each way doubles and trebles with Sky extra places
    I’m guessing Sky are one of the top boys for extra places as I think they were paying 7 places for the Hunt Cup on Wednesday and 6 places looks standard for the big field Hcaps.
    Best of luck to the more shrewder and astute!!!

  5. So close today with a big payout from Ostilio with Corgi (How is that not a Queens horse?) and First Eleven form said fellows Ascot service too.

  6. Nice to continue with the winners today with four across two AW meetings at 5/1, 8/1, 5/1 & 13/2 BOG giving us 11.5pts for the day. I forgot about a 10p Rule 4 yesterday which reduced our profit to 1.4pts. Currently 6.3pts up in June.

    Next AW meeting is at Wolves on Monday. Back Sunday with the qualifiers.

  7. trawling through the Ascot card found these 3 biggies no explanation just fancy them to outrun odds. 3 x £2 ew singles 50p ew treble and a 25p ew trixie just for the hell of it.
    3-05. Highbrow @ 22/1
    3-40.Roussel @ 33/1
    5-00.Tajaanus @ 28/1

  8. Well it’s been a frustrating week, something I have noticed and I think partly to do with the ground is how well the Frankel offsprings have run, so today he has 3 runners 3.05 Rostropovich, 3.40 Gidu, 4.20 Veracious and in the 5,00 he has 3 runners I gave the wife the names of which are Betty F, Qazyna and Ganayem as you can guess she pick the one ridden by Frankie Dettori Betty F.
    So that is my small E/W lucky 15 to watch when I get home.

    Good Luck everyone.

    Greg

  9. Keep hitting crossbar, but, they are getting closer! Think i got a forecast up somewhere, but, starting to become blurred lines now.
    Onto today’s then.Is it a Buick day?
    14:30
    MAIN EDITION 13/2 365 1pt ew
    Has won both starts comfortably enough, J Doyle keeps the ride and she should progress enough to take this.
    COTUBANAMA 66/1 gen 1pt ew
    Mick Channon has a really good record in this including a 50/1 outsider a couple of years ago, in form atm and my eye was drawn to the fact that she clocked a fast time in heavy ground at Salisbury, on gd-frm she should smash it!
    15:40
    HEARTACHE 20/1 gen 1pt ew
    Targeted for this and another one of my cobweb blowing horses, also has course form and the price looks value.
    ROUSSEL 33/1 gen 1pt ew
    Looks overpriced considering it was second last year and if they go off too quick i think Mr Buick will have him well placed to capitalize.
    ACTRESS 40/1 gen 1pt ew
    Another of my speedster horses, finishing 0.10 under the standard rating at The Curragh LTO, will have come on for that and the fact he won comfortably means he will be primed for this, big price…
    16:20
    CLEMMIE 9/2 gen 2pt win
    What can you say about Clemmie that hasn’t already been said, top on the clock, form solid, Moore on board, ticks all boxes and should run like an evens favourite, but, this is Royal Ascot and the bookies are generous, so, fill your boots with a 9/2 shot!!
    BILLESDON BROOK 13/2 gen 1pt ew
    Was the guineas a fluke? I for one think not, clocked a very good time and the second has franked the form, again at 13/2 is a little over priced on my reckoning.Something just kept bringing me back to this one and like i said 13/2 is too big.
    17:00
    POETIC CHARM 14/1 gen 1pt ew
    Mr Buick should go very close on this one, yard know how to get it ready, so, would not worry about a lack of a run and with form to back it up, should as i say, go close!
    GANAYEM 12/1 gen 1pt ew
    Only had 3 runs and got 2 wins under her belt, likes to make all, but, with Jim Crowley on board he will know how to keep a little bit in reserve to last home, over priced i feel.

    There you go then, good luck with whatever you back today.

  10. Sorry forgot to put up last race..
    17:35
    EDDYSTONE ROCK 40/1 gen 1pt ew
    This one has some solid form, 3rd in November hcp and last gasp winner at ebor meeting last year, yes, he does need everything to fall his way, but, too hard to ignore at the price.
    CARBON DATING 80/1 gen 1pt ew
    Again another back of the tv horse, but, if he is on a going day his speed will carry him home, over priced and the trainer will have him readied!

  11. COLINS BETS
    Redcar
    3.30 Mon Beau Visage
    4.05 Paparazzi
    4.45 Cryptonite
    Newmarket
    Pour La Victoire
    Ayr
    7.05 Braes Of Lochals
    8.45 Eternalist
    Wetherby
    6.10 Poetic Steps
    6.45 Maghfoor
    7.50 Justice Pleasing

  12. Tips – we made 2.5 points yesterday thanks to Stradivarius. Downdraft missed the places and so was a loser. I am now minus 10.75 points in June. Today I have two:

    3.40 Ascot, Sioux Nation at 4/1BOG for 3 points. I feel that this horse was impressive LTO and can push on to big things today and after.

    8.55 Wet, Chizz De Biz at 4/1 BOG for 2 points. Won LTO and the trainer thinks that he can progrees further and so take this.

    Royal Ascot looks tricky again and so I suggest you keep your stakes sensible there.

    Good luck.

    1. haha, well they couldn’t have done much worse than yesterday! Well, they did ok, agonising 14/1 second in the last would have ensured an ok day, but been treading water. Used up all my luck at York on Sat it seems! A few friends are off to races and have received them also- it all points to disaster and humiliation. But, I like plenty of those, and if it’s to be a poor day just highlights how tough this week is. We shall see. I’m expectant of big runs from those in last two races, and some of those more fancied ones should be going close. I can’t get AOB right, and it will be just my luck that having homed in on 5 of his, he will either have a poor day or I’ve landed on the wrong ones! Best of luck, we will need it

  13. Spencer over one mile at Ascot – spotted it just in time, on at 6/1 on Agrotera. Hope others spotted it in plenty of time?

    1. Well I’d hope so Martin, she was listed in the stats quals as per report and talked about in write up 🙂 Maybe a saver price, but I long missed double figures last night, so wasn’t tipping at 6s in a race like that. Have to take those on although in hindsight that’s easy to say. It can be backed blind that angle.

      Well done Max, missed the boat there!

  14. Down Royal 7.20 Loupgarou 1 point ew 16/1 on my way to the course now and this one looks very interesting to me, Harrington uses Kennedy well and imo the horses usually outrun their odds.
    This one won 2 runs back at Clonmel and Kennedy returns to the saddle tonight and I’m taking that as a sign they expect better tonight than it’s last run.

  15. Early one for me for tomorrow but The Tin Man looks a cracking bet in the Diamond Jubilee at the prices particularly given a couple of bookies go 4 places. Has yet to lose at Ascot on good ground or better and barring tracks which favour front runners (York/Newmarket-July) has won his last 8 on good or faster and a bold showing is expected. I tipped him up here last year when winning this and should go close again particularly as he appears to be on the right side of the track.

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