Royal Ascot: Day 3 (complete)

Onto Day 3… a couple of ‘races in focus’, some stats pointers to use as you please, and my own ‘through the card’ notes… 

 

DAY 3

Races In Focus

5.00 Britannia Stakes

10/285, 40 places

10/10 same or up in trip

  • Drop in trip: 0/44, 4p

10/10 had 1-3 runs in previous 90 days

  • 0/52,4p outside this

10/10 had 3-6 runs in prev 365 days

  • 0/87,8p outside this (caution under 3, small sample)

10/10 had 8 or fewer career runs

  • 9+ career runs: 0/49,4p

10/10 had been ridden by their jockey previously (10/168,30p)

  • Had not: 0/117,10p

9/10 had 1-4 handicap runs

  • 0: 1/50,5p
  • 5+: 0/27,2p

Other

  • Claiming jockeys: 0/29,0p
  • Ran in Listed race LTO: 0/25,3p
  • AW LTO: 0/22,2p
  • Track LTO
    • Sandown (0/21,2p) , Epsom (0/25,0p)
    • Newmarket Rowley (3/52,9p), Haydock (2/47,7p)

Trainers: no trainer has won this more than once in the period.

  • R Hannon 0/11,1p, M Johnston 0/26,3p , J Gosden 0/12,1p,

Shortlist:

The five ’10/10′ stats help narrow down the field to 11… those stats are 10/102, 22p,+132 BFSP in last 10 years…

Crack On Crack On / Corrosive /Sam Gold / Il Primo Sole / First Contact / Completion/ Moqarrar / Finniston Farm / Qaysar / Magnificent / Landshark 

 

Thoughts… 

Il Primo Sole / Lanshark /George of Hearts / Corrosive

**

 

5.35 King George V Stakes

10/176,40p

10/10 were running at same class/up 1 or drop 1

  • 0/71,16p outside of that

9/10 had 2 or 3 runs in prev 90 days

  • 1/58,11p outside this

8/8 UK/Irish winners had won at C3 or C2 level

  • 0/117,18p yet to win above C4 (treat abroad separately)

8/8 who had UK/Irish form, won on at least one of last two starts

  • 2/57,9p had not

Other

  • Top 2 in weights: 0/27,6p
  • 1 career win only: 0/84,12p
  • Track LTO
    • Sandown: 3/13,4p , Haydock 2/14,2p

Trainer

  • No trainer has won this more than once in the period.

 

Shortlist: having a win at C3 or above, and running at the same class as LTO, moving up 1 or down 1, leaves 6 runners…

Communique / Dubhe / Bailey’s Accelerate / Downdraft / Corgi / He’s Amazing

 

Thoughts…

My three against the field for interest would be: Communique / Corgi / Downdraft 

*

 

Stats Report Qualifiers

ROYAL ASCOT STATS REPORT HERE>>> 

 

Trainers/jockeys

2.30 – Land Force (1.- code from report above) / Konchek (9.)

3.05 – Key Victory (4+7) / Nordic Lights (4+8)

3.40 – Sun Maiden (3. 12/1<) / Wild Illusion (4+7) / Perfect Clarity (9, 20/1<)

4.20 /

5.00 – George Of Hearts (6.) / Petrus (9., 20/1<)

5.35 – Dubhe (4.) / Cross Counter (4+7)

 

Sires 

None. A close 33/1 second on Day 2.

*

 

Other Notes/Pointers/Thoughts

Trainer Race Pointers

Those with 2 or more winners in the race, with runners…

2.30 – Land Force (3/17,8p)

3.05 – Crossed Baton + Main Street (2/11,2p) / Hunting Horn (2/15,5p) / Zaaki (2/20,4p)

3.40 – Athena + Magic Wand + Sarrocchi + Sizzling (2/19,5p) / Highgarden (2/28,10p)

4.20 – Order of St George (7/15,10p) /

5.00- Il Primo Sole + Style Hunter (3/30,6p)

5.35 – Communique + Baileys Excelerate + Making Miracles + Baghdad+ Elegiac + Lucky Deal (4/49,9p)

 

*

*

‘Through The Card’ Notes

Expert Eye 14/1>8/1 rescued the day somewhat on Day 2. Onto Day 3…

2.30 – Land Force 3rd 

3.05 – Key Victory UP / Nordic Lights UP

3.40 – Sun Maiden UP/ Athena (EW) UP

4.20 – Vazirabad 2nd  (one of top 2 prob wins but for an interest bet if you must, worth opposing at odds)

5.00 – Il Primo Sole 5th / Landshark UP/ George Of Hearts UP / Corrosive UP

5.35 – Communique UP/ Corgi 2nd 14/1  (game of fine margins!) / Downdraft UP

We shall see how those go, GL with any bets.

Josh

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

7 Comments

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  • Been a busy week as I’ve just changed jobs so a little late, picks for the european tour below, I’ll try and go through the PGA tour if i have time.

    BMW International Open
    1pt Marcus Kinhult 125/1 ew
    1pt Sam Horsfield 60/1 ew
    1pt Lee Slattery 80/1 ew

    James P 20/06/18 4:50 PM Reply


    • Travelers
      1pt Wes Bryan 150/1 ew
      1pt Russell Henley 60/1 ew

      .5pt FRL Beau Hossler 80/1 ew

      James P 20/06/18 10:52 PM Reply


  • World Cup Thursday – Only one from three on Wednesday, Iran +2 at evens. I will go with Australia draw no bet at 2/1; France +2.5 at 11/10 and Argentina draw at 9/4.

    Off to Tunbridge Wells for cricket and so good luck at Royal Ascot on Thursday.

    martin colwell 20/06/18 9:37 PM Reply


    • I’m going to bet the 1-0/0-1 score for at least the remainder of the 2nd round of group games and combine them in doubles just for fun. There’s been nine from twenty matches with such score so far so hoping that will continue somewhat!
      Four more days of 2nd round group games of 18 bets per day (6 singles and 12 doubles) giving a total of 72 bets. Probably going to need 2 doubles to come in to get ahead, not impossible but undoubtedly dodgy, another day or two like today would be fun!

      Chris Albin 20/06/18 11:19 PM Reply


  • Had a quick run through the card at Ascot to find my best bets for each race. Taking some value hopefully.

    14:30 – Vintage Brut/Kinks
    15:05 – Main Street/Stephensons Rocket
    15:40 – Athena/Magic Wand
    16:20 – Torcedor/Stradivarius
    17:00 – Simpson/Qaysar
    17:35 – Cassini/Corgi

    All small bets for interest

    Chris M 21/06/18 10:03 AM Reply


  • Morning. Hoping that my analysis today performs a little better than yesterday for RA.

    230 Vintage Brut and Charming Kid (ew)

    305 Key Victory and Nordic Lights (ew)

    340 Sun Maiden and Athena (ew)

    420 Stradivarius and Vazirabad (ew)

    500 Corrosive and Completion (both ew with 6 places)

    535 Downdraft, First Eleven, Communique (ew with 5 places)

    GL today

    Simon 21/06/18 11:02 AM Reply


  • 21st June 5f Norfolk Stakes
    Ratings
    1. Konchek, Land Force
    2. Charming Kid, Glory Fighter, Kinks, Pocket Dynamo, The Paddocks, Shang Shang Shang
    Ratings Bets 1pt Win each of Konchek and Land Force, .5pt e/w Kinks
    Here are my comments and post-race ratings from the National stakes which saw Vintage Brut, Konchek and Kinks compete. Clearly the biggest danger is Vintage Brut.
    Vintage Brut – Medium sized, poweful back end. Not physically as impressive as expected in that for a sprinter with his turn of foot he was not as bulky as a couple of the others. Still, well put together and clearly very talented. 94
    Konchek – I saw this one on debut (without pictures) when he won impressively although his victims have not yet franked the form, we await Fanaar’s next run! Looked fitter here than on debut and a real power packed ball of muscle look to him. Drawn second widest, he missed the break by a length so not much went right. Despite this he showed tremendous speed, head down really trying to close wide late on and possibly could have won with a better draw or start. 95
    Kinks – Lower medium little block. A pocket rocket and maybe the unluckiest of the runners. Drawn 6 which is a poor draw and suffered accordingly. Charles Bishop chose to allow him to drop in and trust on a clear passage late on. He was checked at least twice and missed the opportunity to go with Konchek. Finished well. Early season type so needs to get another win before the end of June or if he was cheap may be a super sprint type. 87+
    And The Paddocks – probably under-rated given the performance of those in behind on the day.
    The Paddocks – Did not take the eye at all. Smallish, ok strength and probably one of those tough Hannon ones that will keep surprising. 75
    Hugh

    alpha2 21/06/18 11:24 AM Reply


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