Members Daily Post: 21/06/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Ripon

2.45 –

One Boy (m dist) I3 9/2 UP

Computable (m class) H1 I3 G1 9/4 S1 S2 S4  UP

5.10 –

Parys Mountain (m class) H3 I3 G3 2/1 S4 S5 UP

Kharbetation (m dist move) I3 G1 8/1 S2 S6  WON 8/1>7/2 (will check R4) 

 

Ascot 

None.

 

JUMPS

Ffos Las 

6.10 – Joueur Bresilen (nov hncp c) I3 8/1 UP

6.40 –

Chateau Robin (all hncps) H3 8/1 2nd 

Kelsey (m days run) w1 6/1 UP

8.45 –

Libby T Vallance (m class) ES+ 11/1 S2 S3A UP

St Johns (m dist) 30 ES H3 I3 5/1 S3 UP

9.15 – Jinsha Lake (m runs) 30 6/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 12/146,45p, -6)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +105.5)

NOTES

8.45 Ffos Las – Libby T Valance – 1 point win 11/1 (gen)

that will be all for notes tips, 07.32 

Libby T Valance…this is only her third run in a handicap, having won a bumper and shown some ability a while back. It’s her second run after a break and there is a chance that soft wasn’t ideal LTO and in any case probably needed it. She gets first time CP here and Richard Johnson has been booked, which shows some intent I think. Wedge wouldn’t have been available but i’m sure Vaughan would have had him on if he wanted him. Curtis is 5/16,8p in all 20f handicaps at the track, 4/8,6p when those are C4. Hopefully the return to decent ground and this more galloping track could be just what she wants. It looks a weak race to me, with the Skelton ‘could be anything’ horse and the Williams stats qualifier clearly looking like the main dangers.

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FESTIVAL TIPS: ROYAL ASCOT 2018

(running total = 1/10,1p, +2)

5.00 Ascot 

Il Primo Sole- 1 point win– 16/1 (bet365) 14/1 (gen)UP

Landshark – 1 point win – 40/1 (PP/Coral/BV) UP

 

Shortlist: Crack On Crack On/First Contact / Completion / Corrosive / George of Hearts 

Il Primo Sole – I have focused on my trends shortlist of 11 in this, from the free post, (+Spencer’s mount) and if the winner doesn’t come from that pile I wasn’t destined to find them. Gosden has the best record of any trainer in this historically, 3/30,9p. He has fired a few darts, and hasn’t won it in the last decade, but given the form of the yard, and trainer/jockey this week, I thought he looked interesting at the price. I was intrigued as to why they pitched him into the French 2000 Guineas on the back of hacking up at Kempton. Maybe it was the owner’s decision but the horse race ok. He just had a more intriguing profile than some on that basis in a race where I thought conditions should suit.

Landshark – well I didn’t want to go mad in a 3YO handicap here and restricted myself to the two bullets, so thought i’d take an absolute flyer on one at a price. This race tends to either go to one in single figure odds, or a big priced one. Given he was on the trends shortlist of 10, is the biggest price of those, trainer/jockey 1/9,3p with their Ascot raiders, and his ‘could be anything’ profile, I thought i’d have a stab. It probably won’t come off but after winning his maiden impressively last year, (although that hasn’t produced any subsequent winners), he was pitched into a G2 where he ran with credit. He clearly had some issues but on his return this year he was thrown into the Irish 2000 Guineas. Maybe they were just tilting at windmills but he now steps back into handicap company and will hopefully have come on for the run. It could be he isn’t any good, or suddenly bounces into life in these conditions.

So, two hopeful stabs. It could be that I should have focused on those with some battle hardened handicap form already…Crack On Crack On and that Haydock race may be the place to focus but I want double figures in a race like this, but he won snugly the last day and may not be far away. As with George Of Hearts… Spencer has won the last two renewals of this and is 3/8,7p in 8f handicaps at Royal Ascot on 3YO in the last decade. A decent EW micro angle. On that basis alone I have thrown something at him, but again, I wanted a bigger price for tipping purposes, in a race like this. He does have course form but he does have to prove his stamina, which he may do. A shame he wasn’t double this price really. Corrosive.. I considered this one and it would be great for Gordon to win here, becoming the first winning female Royal Ascot winner since Gay Kellaway a couple of decades ago I believe. She’s sure to have a few RA winners in her time, and maybe this will be the first. In the end it was that jump from a C4 to C2 which put me off, given plenty in here have stronger handicapping form already. But… his course form and proven stamina may more than make up for that, and they are 3YOs that can progress quickly from one run to another. I suppose those four were my main focus. First Contact also makes handicap debut but has a bit to prove and I wanted bigger than 12s. But the team are going well and a big run/win wouldn’t shock me. I wasn’t sure why Completion should improve past Crack On Crack On, but he’s running well.

Anyway, it’s a tough race and I may not have mentioned the winner. But I have four Festival points to play with so thought i’d have a couple of stabs. The Royal Hunt Cup didn’t go too well, hopefully some of these can run with more credit.

That will be all for Festival Tips on Day 3. 

I had a browse at the 5.35, the three of most interest are in the ‘through the card’ notes below… were Communique a bigger price I may have tipped him, the one of most interest at double figures was Corgi,to my eyes, although that was a brief look using my trends shortlist as a starting point.

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Recent Tips(from section 2/’notes’ horses) 

(running total, from 07/06/18: 3/20,8p, +16.5) 

None– don’t believe any today, but will check any comments from Mike! None in my tracker.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

T Lacey 

6.40 FL- Kings Spirit

9.15 FL – Silk Run

Flat 

R Fell 

3.55 Ripon- Mullagatawny

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

7.15 FL – As You Like

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Ascot Day 3

Expert Eye 14s>8/1 rescued my ‘through the card’ notes for the day, after a few placed efforts which were beaten well enough. The Royal Hunt Cup was poor… no issue putting up four losers in a race like that, although most are still running. However the winner, who hacked up like a group horse, wasn’t anywhere near my thinking, which is always annoying, so plenty to learn there.

From the free post… 

Stats Report Qualifiers

ROYAL ASCOT STATS REPORT HERE>>> 

 

Trainers/jockeys

2.30 – Land Force (1.- code from report above) / Konchek (9.)

3.05 – Key Victory (4+7) / Nordic Lights (4+8)

3.40 – Sun Maiden (3. 12/1<) / Wild Illusion (4+7) / Perfect Clarity (9, 20/1<)

4.20 /

5.00 – George Of Hearts (6.) / Petrus (9., 20/1<)

5.35 – Dubhe (4.) / Cross Counter (4+7)

 

Sires 

None. A close 33/1 second on Day 2.

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Other Notes/Pointers/Thoughts

Trainer Race Pointers

Those with 2 or more winners in the race, with runners…

2.30 – Land Force (3/17,8p)

3.05 – Crossed Baton + Main Street (2/11,2p) / Hunting Horn (2/15,5p) / Zaaki (2/20,4p)

3.40 – Athena + Magic Wand + Sarrocchi + Sizzling (2/19,5p) / Highgarden (2/28,10p)

4.20 – Order of St George (7/15,10p) /

5.00- Il Primo Sole + Style Hunter (3/30,6p)

5.35 – Communique + Baileys Excelerate + Making Miracles + Baghdad+ Elegiac + Lucky Deal (4/49,9p)

 

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‘Through The Card’ Notes

Expert Eye 14/1>8/1 rescued the day somewhat on Day 2. Onto Day 3…

2.30 – Land Force

3.05 – Key Victory / Nordic Lights

3.40 – Sun Maiden / Athena (EW)

4.20 – Vazirabad (one of top 2 prob wins but for an interest bet if you must, worth opposing at odds)

5.00 – Il Primo Sole / Landshark / George Of Hearts / Corrosive

5.35 – Communique / Corgi / Downdraft

We shall see how those go, GL with any bets.

Josh

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NOTE: another travel announcement, that won’t concern you really…but i’m off back down to Suffolk again this weekend and travelling up via London next week. An old school friend is having a leaving party as she is relocating to the US, and Really Super is running at Newmarket on Saturday. (wheelbarrow’s at the ready, maybe… 🙂 ) I’m jumping on a train at 10, so will be back in time to crack on with Friday, while watching Landshark romp to victory…it’s a game for dreamers.

Best of luck with any bets,

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • One winner tonight with Storm Over coming home at 12/1 Early/BOG. Sadly the only winner but 3pts nonetheless to add to the pot.

    Two meetings tomorrow at Chelmsford and Lingfield. Qualifiers as follows:

    Chelmsford
    2.20 Mustaaqeem 8/1
    2.55 Isomer 5/1 & Glory Awaits 7/1
    3.30 Master Carpenter 8/1 & Top Mission 4/1
    4.05 Hollydaze 4/1
    4.45 Silver Character 14/1 & Volevo Lui 8/1
    5.20 Rock On Baileys 5/1

    Lingfield
    5.50 Bahamian Heights 16/1
    6.20 Just Us Two 4/1
    6.50 Disruptor 9/2
    7.25 Haraz 16/1
    7.55 Stosur 5/1
    8.25 Polly’s Gold 8/1 & Watch Tan 4/1
    8.55 Parmenter 12/1

    1pt win each

    If you are playing make sure you have a big enough bank to cope with the number of selections. Different people have their views on bank size. I work on a minimum of 200 time stake size. So that would be £1,000 for £5 stakes.

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 20/06/18 9:08 PM Reply


    • Hi Ken,

      I managed to get 33/1 this morning with PP, although there was a rule 4 deduction but still a good result, so thanks.

      Salman Ali 20/06/18 9:15 PM Reply


  • Well done. Sometimes you can get better prices in the morning but overall I find the prices are slightly better the evening before. Missed out on that one though.

    Ken McKenzie 20/06/18 9:43 PM Reply


  • Hopefully some of you managed to get the 7 places on Raising Sand which would have ensured an almost break even day although will mark it down as a loser. If he breaks well he definitely places but such are the breaks at the moment.

    Tangramm Chelmsford City Thursday 15:30 1pt e/w
    Volevo Lui Chelmsford City Thursday 16:45 1pt e/w
    George Of Hearts Ascot Thursday 17:00 1pt e/w-Has some of the best form on offer with a 0.5 length 2nd to a horse which was 2nd in the St James’s Palace over 7f on fast ground at the track and surely has the best part of a stone in hand. Just hope its enough in this field but expect him to go close. Spencer takes over and Josh has already advertised his record with 3yr olds over 8f here. Trainer is in excellent form.
    Corrosive Ascot Thursday 17:00 1pt e/w-Fit all the trends and won over course, distance and ground LTO in a hot looking big field handicap and a 4lb rise looks very lenient. This has been the plan since than. Trainer in excellent form and another who should go well.

    Nick Mazur 20/06/18 10:22 PM Reply


    • Winner at last. On the sand too! Must be the first AW winner for me for a few months not that I tip many.

      Nick Mazur 21/06/18 4:52 PM Reply


  • 715F As You Like £11, 1.1%, sixth bet in the starting points chasers process.

    chrisrees 21/06/18 4:02 AM Reply


    • Won Bsp 2.90 +£19.85. Next bet £10. 50%SR, 3/6.

      chrisrees 21/06/18 7:24 PM Reply


  • no qualifiers today

    martin whittle 21/06/18 4:51 AM Reply


  • Recent ‘notes’ runners…..None
    There is a past ‘festival tip’ ,
    F 8.15 – Maggio, tipped for the National and has run since at Perth in a chase. Over hurdles here and looks against it although it is a raider?

    Others for info.
    C 3.30 – Master Singer, failed when noted 6/10 but won next race @ 5/2
    F 8.15 – Aylas Emperor, failed 13/10, and 26/11 but won next race @ 25/1
    C 3.30 – Noble Gift placed @ 25’s on 30/10 but had it’s strikes since.
    F 7.15 – As You Like, failed 26/12 but won next @ 9/2

    Have completed figures for ‘notes’ and the rest should be ready for posting later today/tomorrow. I’d rather put them all in one post than scattered.

    Titus 21/06/18 6:54 AM Reply


  • Morning,

    Well Ascot has been exciting, not as exhilarating as Cheltenham or Aintree for me, but, that is a personal thing.
    Here we go again then.
    14:30
    GLORY FIGHTER 12/1 gen 1pt ew
    I know these are babies, but, anything that breaks a course record is worth a second look, even if it was Lingfield. form has been franked by the second that day winning easily.
    LAND FORCE 8/1 gen 1pt ew
    Mr O`Brien normally targets this race and this is his selection this time, looks a little over priced for one of his, so, steam in for the value I say!
    15:05
    NORDIC LIGHTS 8/1 gen 1pt ew
    He may be the pacemaker, who knows, dropped in grade here though and at 8/1 worth a punt.
    HUNTING HORN 6/1 2pt win
    Another dropped in grade and i don`t think we have seen the best of him yet, crying out for the ground he gets today, may be a quick fire double on the cards here for O`Brien/Moore.
    17:00
    CORROSIVE 14/1 gen 1pt ew
    This C and D winner has clearly been targeted for this, he has the speed to burn these off also and is top rated in the RP topspeed and Josephine Gordon is a canny jockey who will know exactly what to do in this big field.
    VENTURA KNIGHT 33/1 gen 1pt ew
    Just have a sneaking suspicion about this one, due a big run and Mr Johnston will have this spot on and occasionally he comes up with a big one at Royal Ascot.
    CURIOSITY 12/1 gen 1pt ew
    Major ew player and will be up with the pace. HP will have him spot on and the first run will have blown the cobwebs off for this exciting horse.
    17:35
    LUCIUS TIBERIUS 16/1 gen 1pt ew
    I know, another O`Brien horse, but, again i think this one is over priced for not really doing a lot in the last couple of runs, yes it`s a harder race, but, i expect further improvement and Ryan Moore on board should go well.
    DOWNDRAFT 10/1 gen 1pt ew
    Now the other Mr O’Brien…haha.Think Downdraft is a quirky horse, out of Trempolino and Camelot, so, well bred, price reflects this and it could be a good day for the whole O`Brien family.

    Good luck with whatever you back today.

    Stewart 21/06/18 7:57 AM Reply


  • Tips – I will go with Downdraft, 5.35 Asc, 1 point each way. Looks to be an improving sort over this distance. Some 8/1 BOG about. I will go Stradivarius, 4.20 Asc, 3 points. Hopefully he will stay the full distance and show his class. Spotted some 9/4 BOG.

    Minus 13.25 for June on tips!!

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 21/06/18 8:49 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, I think Kharbetation 5.10R should be an S2/S6?

    Ken McKenzie 21/06/18 8:59 AM Reply


    • Ah yes, so he should. Cheers. Not sure how I missed adding those codes, that but all info there.

      Josh 21/06/18 9:37 AM Reply


      • And Libby T V an S2 jumps?

        kevo19 21/06/18 4:11 PM Reply


        • Ah yes, clearly I don’t function too well when getting up at 6am to fit everything in for an early train! 🙂 Still, those codes are just for convenience and don’t determine a qualifier, info was all there, I can’t have had enough coffee by that point! Cheers.

          Josh 21/06/18 4:13 PM Reply


  • Chris M Selections:

    16:20 Ascot – Stradivarius (2/1 gen) GG
    21:15 Ffos Las – Silk Run (13/2 Bet365, 11/2 gen) RTP

    That’s all from me today, I’m off for a long weekend break so nothing from me until Monday. Good luck with your bets!

    Chris M 21/06/18 9:15 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    3.55 Ripon Rock On Baileys
    5.20 Chelmsford Mikmak
    8.25 Lingfield Guardiola

    colin leafe 21/06/18 10:27 AM Reply


  • I really like Charming Kid (1p win) in first race at Ascot
    in 1505 im on
    Zaaki – 1p Win
    Mini P – 1p Win
    Shakour – 1p EW – this is my favourite 🙂
    Apart from those I am on Josh tips

    mazz 21/06/18 1:32 PM Reply


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