Royal Ascot 2018: Day 2 (Video/complete)

Day 1 flew by and it was pleasing to land on the 10/1 winner of the ‘race in focus’. There were a handful of winners dotted around the stats report qualifiers/trainer pointers, although I don’t appear to have landed on any in the ‘through the card’ notes, bar the 5pm. I’ll try harder today. 

 

Royal Hunt Cup: Video Preview

Thoughts…

AS per the video…my four pins landed on…

Raising Sand / Tricorn / Keyser Soz / Kynren

Others on my shortlist…Bless Him / Afaak / Firmament

 

 

Information to use as you please…

Stats Report Qualifiers

ROYAL ASCOT STATS REPORT HERE>>> 

 

Trainers/jockeys

2.30 – Gossamer Wings  (1.) / So Perfect (1.) / Shades of Blue (9.)

3.05 – Almoghared (2., 20/1< guide) / Stream of Stars (2. 20/1< guide)

3.40 – Tribute Act (9., 20/1<)

4.20 – Cracksman (2) / Hawkbill (7)

5.00 – Seniority (8) / Hors De Combat (9. 20/1< ) / Repercussion (10.)

5.35 – St Patrick’s Day (1) / Could It Be Love (1) / Emaraaty (2) / Society Power (6., other pointer)

Sires 

2.30 – Gossamere Wings / So Perfect

 

Other Notes/Pointers/Thoughts

Trainer Race Pointers

Those with 2 or more winners in the race, with runners…

2.30 – Chelsea Cloisters (3/8,5p) /

3.05 – Kew Gardens + Nelson + Southern France (5/22,9p) / Kings Protector + Lynwood Gold (7/26,8p)

3.40 – Tribute Act (2/7,5p)

4.20 – Cliffs of Mohar (3/18,9p)

5.00 – Tricorn (2/15,5p)

5.35 – Expert Eye (2/11,7p) / St Patricks Day + Could It Be Love (3/22,5p)

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‘Through The Card’ Notes

2.30 – Shades of Blue 3rd / Snazzy UP (EW)

(fav could be a machine here, if you believe the hype from connections,and he knows what it takes to win this, but you have to take on shorties here, esp in races like this) 

3.05 – Stream of Stars UP… two at a price… Kings Protector UP / Lynwood Gold UP

3.40- Tribute Act 2nd  / Urban Fox UP / Wilamina 3rd 

4.20 – Cracksman (an original selection! I won’t be betting, just sitting back and enjoying)

5.00-  Raising Sand / Tricorn / Keyser Soz / Kynren (race in focus)

5.30 – Society Power / Expert Eye / Headway

A few at a price in that list, for interest/fun stakes. I don’t appear great at reading the top of the market here, so i’ll be taking most of them on, in the knowledge a few will win no doubt. The 5pm is my big betting race of the day, as it’s an easy one to solve!! 🙂 (not) 

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DAY 2

Race In Focus

Royal Hunt Cup 2018

10/284, 40 places

10/10 had 2-9 runs over the distance

  • 0/103,11p outside of this

9/10 yet to run above Group 3

  • Had run G1/2: 1/79,8p

9/10 had 2-4 career wins

  • 0-1: 0/40,4p
  • 5+ : 1/78,11p

9/10 ran in a handicap LTO

  • Did not: 1/80,10p

8/10 had 0-1 wins at the distance (8/165,23p)

  • 2+ : 2/119,17p)

8/10 had 1-2 handicap wins (0/108,17p)

  • 0 wins: 0/61,6p
  • 4+ : 1/72,9p

8/10 had 2-4 places in handicaps (inc wins) (8/88,18p)

  • 0-1: 0/61,6p
  • 5-8: 0/81,7p
  • 9-10: 2/20,6p
  • 11+ : 0/35, 3p

7/10 Aged 4 (7/116,20p)

  • Aged 5+ : 3/168,20p

7/10 top 4 LTO (7/150,22p)

Other

  • 9-6 or more: 0/51,9p
  • 8-7 or less: 0/37, 5p
  • Top 5 in the weights: 0/53,11p
  • Up in distance from last run: 1/68,9p
  • 1 run at track only: 0/78,6p
  • 0-1 handicap runs: 0/30,2p

 

Shortlist: sadly my stats above don’t really help with shortlisting in this. It certainly looks like a race to use them as a guide if you wish, or maybe even ignore!

Thoughts…

My four pins landed on…

Raising Sand / Tricorn / Keyser Soz / Kynren

Others on my shortlist…Bless Him / Afaak / Firmament

GL with any bets.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

8 Comments

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  • good day out at Thirsk yesterday with a nice couple winners and a few places, thanks Hugh for making the first 2 races interesting as i hadn’t a clue , i did Ascended(2nd) in the first and Beechwood Izzy (1st) Armageddon ew (3rd) in the second.
    highlight of the day was getting 16’s on Bedwyyah in the 3-20 before it was backed in to 7’s that paid for the day and a takeaway 🙂
    a few other places and a couple wins at Ascot made it a cracking day out.

    martin whittle 19/06/18 10:07 PM Reply


  • World Cup – Today I like Portugal both teams to score at 23/20. Morocco need a result after losing to Iran previously. I also like Uruguay minus 2.5 at 7/4. Saudi Arabia looked poor in the first game and Uruguay should get some shooting practice here. Finally I like Iran +2 at evens v Spain. Iran won their first match and are top rated in Asia and so do not need to go for it here. Spain will be happy with a one goal win.

    Golf – I will go with Colin on Xander Schauffele at 40/1, 1 point each way. I also like Ryan Moore at 33/1, 1 point each way. I am minus 6.5 points on golf tips in 2018.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 20/06/18 9:56 AM Reply


  • I’m a big fan of James Garfield and think he has a fantastic opportunity today in the Jersey. Didn’t quite stay the mile when running the Guineas, but not disgraced at all. Then looked a bit off the pace when dropped back to 6f at Haydock. Now at his optimum trip of 7f and will relish the fast ground, surely 14/1 represents a bit of value!

    Jack P 20/06/18 11:21 AM Reply



  • Wednesday June 20th Coventry Stakes review and Queen Mary

    Rather than spend much time on what look loads of tricky 2yo races today I have been going through the Coventry pictures and a full write up follows.
    One thing I have done is look at all the ones that I had seen and given a rating to prior to this race. Below is a table of where they finished and the rating score I had given them after each of their races.

    Horse Place in Coventry OR equivalent rating
    Advertise 2nd 87
    Blown By Wind 7th 85
    Shaybani 12th 75
    Pogo 15th 84
    I Am A Dreamer 16th 75
    Alfie Solomons 19th 75
    Burj 20th 74

    Except for Pogo who I had over-rated due to his proximity when staying on 2nd to Advertise at Newbury they finished in the ‘right’ order. Note I must try not use 75 so much. &5 is my default score for will win a maiden. Clearly as is often the case in early season the absolute rating for Advertise was too low and he is at least a 100 colt.
    The accuracy of these ratings then gives me a good framework on which to judge the other runners taking pace into account.
    For the sake of clarity I should make clear that my pre-race ratings are algorhythmic depending on the addition of several pre determined scores whereas the numerical post race ratings which here I have called OR equivalent are subjective based on my assessment of the horses confirmation, size and mental attitude.
    Coventry Stakes review

    Photo file https://imgur.com/a/22Afc3D

    Calyx – a superb performance. He has the stamp of the best Gosden horses which must be something to do with the training regime or selection. It is a barrel effect to the chest and girth which seems to extend further back than in most. Often they are not that imposing, as is the case here but there is an efficiency in the way they run presumably driven by that huge lung and heart cavity. 106

    Advertise – Not as complete a model as the first and third, maybe still a fraction downhill at the shoulder and plenty of improvement left. 103
    Sergei Prokofiev – I’ve posted up a couple of pictures of him. He is an superb specimen, a clear size bigger than anything else in the parade and beautifully proportioned. I think that due to his running a less efficient race than the two in front of him he was beaten here but will eventually rate higher. For the first furlong he was too free and Ryan had to settle him at the back. When he started to make up ground, Frankie on Calyx was doing the same but Sergei P’s run was monetarily held up by Kuwait Station and I Am A Dreamer coming back into him. At the same time Advertise and Calyx were having uninterrupted runs. Having got between the first two as he started to make up ground fast Oisin on Advertise started to drift right toward Vange and Ryan decided to go even further right toward the centre of the course and forfeited another vital couple of yards as Advertise and Calyx continued to run straight. Ultimately he was beaten but he looked like a true Group 1 horse to me. 108

    Vange – What credit to Sylvestre De Souza and Richard Fahey for this performance. He is a lighter built type of cold, athletic but not really looking to have the quality to run this company so close. A superb ride showing why he is worth so much in any race. 88
    Shine So Bright – I was hoping that Shine So Bright may be an outsider to back and he ran a very good race but I don’t think he is group class long term. Very much a now 2yo, lower end of medium, stocky, tryer. 84

    Ninetythreetwenty – Well made, medium sized, 84
    Blown By Wind – 84
    Gee Rex – Smallish, small behind, held up by Spencertrundled therough 75
    Cosmic Law – Similar type to Fahey’s Ninetythreetwenty. Broken by trying to go with Calyx, 87
    Dubai Legacy – Very sweaty in paddock. Ran a good race considering that and maybe worth a bit more than finishing position suggests. 84
    Getchagetchagetcha – Lower medium at best. Ok build 78
    Sahybani – Grand ready little 2yo type. Chunky and solid, over faced here. 75

    The Irish Rover – Wiry and athletic, looked 1.5 sizes smaller than Sergei but well proportioned. Not the scope to cope with the principals and broken by trying to go with Calyx. 83
    Midnight Sands – Another over faced here. Decent sized but lacking class required for this contest. Athletic, looks more like a 7f and up animal. 77
    Pogo – Discussed earlier, over rated on debut 77
    I Am A Dreamer – 75
    Barbill – I really liked Barbill, very powerful build in a small frame. I think he has a bit of potential to go on from this. 77
    Boa Nova – Small ordinary type, lots of early pace then faded. 74

    Alfie Solomons – Looked just like Rajasinghe last year but not the muscle heft. 74
    Burj – 75 as on debut.
    No Needs Never – I really thought this one would compete. A upper medium unit with good proportions. Went from travelling well to nothing when trying to match Calyx. Disappointing. 80
    Indigo Balance – same story as No Needs Never showing jut how much ability Calyx has. 80
    Kuwait Station – Probably here for an owners day out. 73

    Queen Mary Stakes

    Loads of joint top rated. I hope that the steroidal beast from the States doesn’t perform and would have Shades Of Blue, Kodyanna and Kurious as my back up team.
    Hugh

    alpha2 20/06/18 12:28 PM Reply


  • A little down yesterday with posted selections ( I try to limit to 2/race), but a couple of very small bets on my third choices helped me up for the day (Lagostovegas and Accidental Agent).

    A few thoughts today after looking at trends, etc.

    230 Chelsea Chlosters and Servalan (ew)

    305 Southern France and Almogharad (both ew)

    340 Hydrangea and Urban Fox (ew)

    420 Cracksman and Hawkbill (not sure how to back…probably to place).

    500 Who knows… I have narrowed down to Cape Byron, Bless Him, Settle for Bay and Escobar from the trends – and I cannot narrow down to two.

    I also have an outsider system that highlights Firmament and Gabrial (this system picked up Accidental Agent & Century Dream, Lagostovegas and Autocractic from 7 selections yesterday).

    Personally, I am backing Settle for Bay and Escobar (both ew) and small ew bets on Firmament and Gabrial.

    535 Another hard race… I have narrowed down to Emaraaty, Purser and Headway for my purposes.

    GL with your bets, particularly in the last 2 races.

    Simon 20/06/18 12:31 PM Reply


    • In the end, the selections did not pan out but due to the win for Settle For Bay at 16/1, I have ended up around break-even for the day…… i’ll always settle for not giving to the bookies, however it is done.

      Simon 20/06/18 5:51 PM Reply


      • Well done Simon, i was nowhere near that Hunt Cup winner, which given his profile was a bit poor! Hacked up like a group horse with any amount in hand. Expert Eye rescued my day for the through the card notes, the lucky last!

        Josh 20/06/18 6:07 PM Reply


        • Cheers Josh. GL tomorrow!

          Simon 20/06/18 10:23 PM Reply


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