Members Daily Post: 20/06/18 (video/complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Hamilton

2.45 – 

Yes You (all hncps) 10/1 3rd 

Nuns Walk (3yo+ + micro age) H3 I3 7/2  2nd 

4.35 – Vive La Difference (3yo+, + m age) w2 H1 I3 3/1 S2

5.10 – 

Prediction (all hncps + 3yo+) G3 8/1  UP

Sentimental Gent (all hncps + 3yo+) 7/1 UP

 

Ascot 

5.00 – 

Flaming Spear (m class) 14 33/1  UP

Tricorn (m age/runs) 14,30 20/1 UP

 

Ripon

7.50 – Fashion Theory (m TJC) I3 9/2 

8.50 – Multelle (m TJC/dist/class) G3 7/1

 

JUMPS

Uttoxeter 

2.20 – 

Mrs Burbidge (hncp h) H3 I1 9/1 S5 UP 14/1

Martha’s Benefit (all hncps) 14,30 ES 14/1 S2 S3 WON 14/1>5/1

GI Jayne (m TJC) w1 ES+ H3 3/1 S3A UP

4.45 – Benton’s Lad (all hncps + hncp h + m runs) w1 14,30 ES H3  6/1 S3 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 12/146,45p, -6)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +109.5)

NOTES

4.45 Uttox – Eureu Du Boulay – 1 point win – 20/1 (PP/Coral/BV) 18/1 (gen) UP

I tipped this one the last day on his first run after a wind op and first run on decent ground for the yard. Most of the hurdles were omitted that day which I don’t think helped him or his jockey, in terms of pace, as he seemed to do plenty on the front end with one other. His mark is plummeting, he may well strip fitter for that outing, and they move him back up in distance here, which should suit I think. He had some ok form in France and i’m convinced connections will get wins out of him. He did run well for a long way LTO and hopefully he can build on it here. Maybe they are struggling to find the key but at 20s, i’ll have one more go. No doubt he will pop up at a price when I’m not on! There are a few dangers here, mainly Jonjo’s, but his record with LTO winners isn’t great and nor is it with those having their second start in a handicap. But, he is the one they have to beat. The consistency of Barton Knoll may be enough to put him in the mix and there is the stats qualifier above, Benton’s Lad, whose price wasn’t big enough for me given the rise in class and what he needs to find on those two mentioned, if they run their races/progress. But, he is in form, and did it well LTO. With any luck the selection will show himself to be well handicapped at some point, hopefully today.

That will be all for notes tips. 

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FESTIVAL TIPS: ROYAL ASCOT 2018

(running total = 1/8,1p, +4)

5.00 Ascot

Raising Sand – 1 point win– 20/1 (bet365) 16/1 (gen) (21.00 BFxch as of 08.11)

Tricorn – 1 point win– 20/1 (gen) (25.00 BFxch)

Keyser Soz – 1 point win– 12/1 (gen) (14s places) (16.00 BFxch)

Kynren – 1 point win – 22/1 (skyB/BV) 20/1 (gen) (24.00 BFxch)

That will be all for the Hunt Cup.

Working ‘shortlist’: those four and in order of most annoying were one to win… Bless Him / Firmament / Afaak 

VIDEO PREVIEW 

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Recent Tips(from section 2/’notes’ horses) 

(running total, from 07/06/18: 3/20,8p, +16.5) 

3.55 Ham – Admiral Rooke (3rd run) 2nd

4.45 Uttox – Eureu Du Boulay (2nd run) UP

5.00 Ascot – Raising Sand (2nd run) UP

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A mention for Just That Lord in 7.10 Chelm…who made my ‘mentions’ list for the Dash LTO, and ran a cracker.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.05 Uttox- River of Intrigue

R Hobson (33/1< guie)

4.45 Uttox – Eureu Du Boulay

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Royal Ascot Day 2

Top Rated (HRB/GG/Inform)

2.30 – Snazzy / So Perfect / Second Generation

3.05 – Southern France / Southern France / Jeremiah

3.40 – Hydrangea / Urban Fox / Hydranger

4.20 – Cracksman / Cracksman / Cracksman

5.00 – Gabrial / Medahim / Goring

5.35 – Society Power / Another Batt / Merlin Magic

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From the free post…

Stats Report Qualifiers

ROYAL ASCOT STATS REPORT HERE>>> 

Trainers/jockeys

2.30 – Gossamer Wings  (1.) / So Perfect (1.) / Shades of Blue (9.)

3.05 – Almoghared (2., 20/1< guide) / Stream of Stars (2. 20/1< guide)

3.40 – Tribute Act (9., 20/1<)

4.20 – Cracksman (2) / Hawkbill (7)

5.00 – Seniority (8) / Hors De Combat (9. 20/1< ) / Repercussion (10.)

5.35 – St Patrick’s Day (1) / Could It Be Love (1) / Emaraaty (2) / Society Power (6., other pointer)

Sires 

2.30 – Gossamere Wings / So Perfect

 

Other Notes/Pointers/Thoughts

Trainer Race Pointers

Those with 2 or more winners in the race, with runners…

2.30 – Chelsea Cloisters (3/8,5p) /

3.05 – Kew Gardens + Nelson + Southern France (5/22,9p) / Kings Protector + Lynwood Gold (7/26,8p)

3.40 – Tribute Act (2/7,5p)

4.20 – Cliffs of Mohar (3/18,9p)

5.00 – Tricorn (2/15,5p)

5.35 – Expert Eye (2/11,7p) / St Patricks Day + Could It Be Love (3/22,5p)

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‘Through The Card’ Notes

2.30 – Shades of Blue / Snazzy (EW)

(fav could be a machine here, if you believe the hype from connections,and he knows what it takes to win this, but you have to take on shorties here, esp in races like this) 

3.05 – Stream of Stars… two at a price… Kings Protector / Lynwood Gold

3.40- Tribute Act / Urban Fox / Wilamina

4.20 – Cracksman (an original selection! I won’t be betting, just sitting back and enjoying)

5.00-  Raising Sand / Tricorn / Keyser Soz / Kynren (race in focus)

5.30 – Society Power / Expert Eye / Headway

A few at a price in that list, for interest/fun stakes. I don’t appear great at reading the top of the market here, so i’ll be taking most of them on, in the knowledge a few will win no doubt. The 5pm is my big betting race of the day, as it’s an easy one to solve!! 🙂 (not) 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

33 Comments

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  • Might be something and it might be nothing but I’ve had a look through the Royal Hunt cup field and one or two catch my eye but there’s one in there who’s had its form franked in no uncertain terms today.

    Raising Sand – ridden by Jamie Spencer (big plus over the straight 8f)
    Won a C2 hcp over 8F here at Ascot last Aug
    Two runs later followed up with a 3rd place of 18 over 7f in a very valuable hcp again at Ascot.
    Only up 2lb since then.
    The two horses in front were the 1-2 in the Queen Anne today, Accidental Agent and Lord Glitters.
    20/1 B365 taken

    gallou 19/06/18 7:29 PM Reply


    • I suspect a few of our pins may land on that one!! 🙂 Spencer over 8f here on straight course should be profitable to back blind until he retires, seen what he did with Lord Glitters. And yep, the horse loves it here and as you say, form franked. Only niggle is proper fast ground but more an unknown and at that price, esp given the pace his side to aim at, looks worth a go!

      Josh 19/06/18 7:35 PM Reply


      • I am on a 20/1, Spencer over 8F at Ascot is a micro here. Tip 1 point each way.

        I also got on Nelson in the 3.05 at 9/2. Tip 2 points win.

        I am minus 9.25 points on tips for June to date.

        I am back from Lake Garda, got back to see the end of ITV coverage on Tuesday. Good luck if you found a few winners there.

        martin colwell 19/06/18 8:30 PM Reply


  • LTO losers

    A 5.00 – Raising Sand, 1st noted 7/10/17 and this only 2nd run since and Spencers 1st ride!!
    H 3.55 – Admiral Rourke, 2nd run after noted 7/5
    U 4.45 – Eureu du Boulay, 1st run ” ” 5/6

    Sorry for delay in posting figures but I’m separating into 3m+, festival and note and have had to trawl through rtp posts to ensure I’ve got all in correct place. That’s finished now and I’ll start on the figures tomorrow.
    Mike

    Titus 19/06/18 8:13 PM Reply


  • Raising Sand down to 10/1 ground is a major concern for London area could reach up to 27 degrees tomorrow and so the going must be gd/firm and Raising Sand best performances have been on gd and g/soft, no doubt will romp home.

    colin leafe 19/06/18 8:34 PM Reply


    • ??? Where are you looking Colin? 20s still Bet365/ 16s around in plenty of places as of 20.47, and 20.00 on the machine with 45k liquidity so likely moderate stakes will get matched.
      Going is just an unknown…he has only raced twice on GF in his life, one over 8f Wind where he ran well, tried hard, hit the front and looked to have put down on it…as he did when last here over 7f last run, keeping on, as if fast wasn’t hindering him…but we can assume he needed it as a prep for this and he is best over 8f. We shall see, but his odds allow the chance to my eyes, with the caveat at the ready! 🙂

      Josh 19/06/18 8:49 PM Reply


      • Looked on the Racing Post website they had it at 11/1 must have been one bookmaker just been on their site and on their list of bookmakers and yes there is plenty of 16/1.
        Jamie Osbourne is a past master of having one ready,they had plenty of opportunity to run on gd/fm last summer but decided to run on gd or gd/soft its last run finished 16 of 27 on gd/firm over 7 furlongs,won over a mile 3 times twice on gd and once on gd/soft.
        The negative for me is the going for if the weather report is correct it could be firm by 5.00 and even at gd/firm have my doubts.
        Will probably back it if it is 16/1 or 20/1 on the machines on the day.

        colin leafe 19/06/18 9:19 PM Reply


        • you may be right, and as you say could have run him on faster last year. I will assume he needed the run LTO and nothing to do with the going, but, time will tell. If he travels well and doesn’t pick up, then may well be too fast. All about price against that risk, and 20s/16s is ok in my eyes, given all of the other positives. Time will tell!

          Josh 19/06/18 9:30 PM Reply


  • Admiral Rourke has halved in price!!

    Jim 19/06/18 8:38 PM Reply


  • Sorry to butt in on the Ascot love-fest but there is AW racing in the evening at Chelmsford. A decent card with 3 Class 2’s and a Class 1. You might want to throw a few shekels of your Ascot winnings at the qualifiers, which are:

    6.10 Sky Patrol 5/1 & Max Guevara 8/1
    6.40 Secret Art 7/1 & Majeed 10/1
    7.10 Storm Over 12/1 & Poyle Vinnie 6/1
    7.40 Summer Icon 14/1 & Lucymai 9/2
    8.40 Volatile 10/1 & Raucous 9/2

    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 19/06/18 9:31 PM Reply


    • So Ken, do you think HM Queen will come on to Chelmsford after Royal Ascot?

      I hear a good word for Tropics in the 7.10.

      martin colwell 19/06/18 10:15 PM Reply


      • I quite like Tropics too. Seemed overpriced at 4’s & 9/2 earlier.

        traf69 20/06/18 1:17 AM Reply


        • Tropics missed the break but Storm Over wins at 12s and Poyle Vinnie 2nd. Didn’t do the RFC !!

          Ken McKenzie 20/06/18 7:19 PM Reply


  • good day out at Thirsk yesterday with a nice couple winners and a few places, thanks Hugh for making the first 2 races interesting as i hadn’t a clue , i did Ascended(2nd) in the first and Beechwood Izzy (1st) Armageddon ew (3rd) in the second.
    highlight of the day was getting 16’s on Bedwyyah in the 3-20 before it was backed in to 7’s that paid for the day and a takeaway 🙂
    a few other places and a couple wins at Ascot made it a cracking day out.

    martin whittle 19/06/18 10:05 PM Reply


    • Glad you had a good day out. I had a wonderful time at Royal Ascot
      Hugh

      alpha2 20/06/18 8:42 AM Reply


  • Raising Sand Ascot Wednesday 17:00 1pt e/w-Seems everyone is in agreement here although in fairness I had this one picked out before Josh had today’s post up. I suspect this might have been the plan ever since last season and the horse loves it around here and barring his re-appearance run his record here is 1143. The 1st and 2nd have massively franked the form today. The booking of Spencer is massively eye-catching given how well he rides the track and particularly this distance. They have a record of 3/7, 4p in Ascot handicaps and they have yet to be out of the places in the Royal meeting (2141 including a 4th in this race and a win in the Britannia over course and distance) Should get a nice tow into the race given there is plenty of pace low. There is a slight concern about the going however his win in September 2016 (whilst giving weight to Fastnet Tempest who won last year’s Victoria Cup) was on ground where the going stick was 8.4 which is verging on fast ground. Stable is also in good form.
    Tricorn Ascot Wednesday 17:00 1pt e/w-Whilst the ground was faster to those drawn low I wanted to have one high and I think this one has a very good chance. Hasn’t raced on fast ground since his 3rd in the Britannia over course and distance. 4 of the last 5 winners had ran in the previous year’s Royal Ascot. Gosden has done well in the race as pointed out by Josh above and this is his only runner. The first time blinkers go on and Gosden is 3/8, 7p with this first time headgear in 2018 and is profitable to follow blind in first time blinkers. There is plenty of pace across the track and he gets the services of the excellent James McDonald. Stable is arguably hotter than just about anyone out there and I expect a bold showing.
    Headway Ascot Wednesday 17:35 1pt e/w-Looks to be very much a 7f horse. Another who ran well at the Festival last year with a head second in the Coventry which also happened to be the last time he ran over fast ground. Haggas said this was the main season plan at the start of the season. He looks to be drawn well and I wouldn’t look at Tudhope as a negative given he has a hell of a record for the stable. Those who have won a class 1 and ran in a Group 1 LTO are 2/13, 4p including 2 of the last 4 winners.

    Nick Mazur 19/06/18 10:17 PM Reply


    • I’m not surprised everyone is keen on raising sand after the Queen Anne today and the form of his last run last season, as well as all the other documented positives. Now all we need is the others to all get out of his way ha ha.

      westy2 19/06/18 10:36 PM Reply


  • Josh – An insight today into the world of twitter and abuse you are likely to pick up on there
    Dear me anybody who knows you knows that you are certainly NOT an affiliate of bookmakers nor a lucky guesser. There are a lot of trolls on there so watch out m8.

    finalflight 19/06/18 10:48 PM Reply


    • Ah, it wasn’t abuse really… nothing to hide here, and folk can ask any questions they please…sadly said person wasn’t interested in the answers and clearly has an agenda/set view point, which if you just lived on twitter would make sense.. plenty of crooks and affiliate bookie accounts galore. Sadly he was unable to engage in a constructive debate and struck me as just being a tad thick in the end, but each to their own! 🙂

      Josh 20/06/18 11:05 AM Reply


  • Just been reading Hugh Taylor’s page on ATR, very interesting read.

    He’s not put up a bet for the Hunt Cup because he does not tip horses he part owns.

    He’s only backed one horse in the race and he’s very hopeful of a big run, the horse is Raising Sand!

    Jim 20/06/18 6:29 AM Reply


  • On the LTA website Raising Sands trainer Jamie Osbourne states ‘He’s in the form of his life and I’ve never had him better‘.

    Chris R.

    broadsword 20/06/18 7:07 AM Reply


    • He is honest, when interviewed yesterday about chances of his two in Ascot Stakes, he said ‘little chance, and no chance’ or something like that. Fingers crossed for a big run/Spencer special. GL

      Josh 20/06/18 8:25 AM Reply


    • At 20/1 we can take our chance but it is a cavalry charge and so we need a clear run as well to have a chance. Hopefully the jockey will steer him through.

      martin colwell 20/06/18 8:34 AM Reply


  • just one qualifier today.
    Uttoxeter 5-20. Charlie Mon 9-1

    martin whittle 20/06/18 8:10 AM Reply


    • todays qualifier a n/r
      results update 23 selections 1 wins,5 places, staked 23 pts returns 14.25 pts down 8.75 pts.

      martin whittle 20/06/18 6:10 PM Reply


  • 2 winners yesterday, just tips again I’m afraid..
    14:30
    COME ON LEICESTER 16/1 1pt ew
    FOREVER IN DREAMS 16/1 1pt ew
    15:05
    KEW GARDENS 7/2 2pt win
    SOUTHERN FRANCE 5/1 2pt win
    17:00
    ZHUI FENG 22/1 gen 1pt ew
    RAISING SAND 16/1 gen 1pt ew
    GABRIEL 18/1 1pt ew
    17:35
    EMAARATY 11/2 2pt win
    ANOTHER BATT 33/1 1pt ew

    Good luck with whatever you back today!

    Stewart 20/06/18 8:26 AM Reply


    • well done yesterday Stewart, couple of nice winners. GL today! You will hear my cheer from wherever you are if Raising Sand can win!

      Josh 20/06/18 11:21 AM Reply


  • The syndicate behind Kurious (2.30 Ascot) are really bullish about getting a place for their horse at least. Their syndicate star is Heartwarming who Kurious beat by a head a couple of weeks ago. Obviously the Wesley Ward bullet is a strong favourite but afer that we are dealing with a lot of unknowns. Can currently get 16-1 e/w.

    Cheers

    Ben

    921389 20/06/18 9:02 AM Reply


  • Chris M Selections:

    14:45 Hamilton – Nuns Walk (7/2 gen) RTP
    16:05 Uttoexeter – Blagapar (8/11 gen) GG
    16:20 Ascot – Poets Word (9/2 gen) GG
    16:35 Hamilton – Vive La Difference (9/4 gen) RTP
    19:10 Chelmsford – Tropics (10/3 gen) GG
    20:40 Chelmsford – Dubai One (8/1 gen) GG

    Good luck today

    Chris M 20/06/18 9:38 AM Reply


  • In the Hunt with two interlinked tips:
    The fact that W Ward had a runner in the race, Master Merion, intrigued and I wondered why Frankie was absent and Moore was booked, to discover that he was on Gabrial (subsequently mentioned by SP2), dropped in grade, back on fast going and with the rail draw.
    So I bet both, as the US horse could a complete turn up here with its liking for quick ground.

    chrisrees 20/06/18 10:09 AM Reply


    • GL Chris, yep a complete unknown… according to RP spotlight, looks like Moore may be on because one of the owners is daughter of Derrick Smith, Coolmoore etc. But a complete unknown, would be some win for him to take this given profile, but you never know! Best of luck. I’ll be on bread and butter for the week if one doesn’t land as I think between myself, Nick, and SP2A we have a 3rd of the field covered!!

      Josh 20/06/18 10:31 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Ascot
    5.00 Escobar
    5.00 Seniority
    Hamilton
    4.35 Strong Steps
    5.45 Competition
    Ripon
    6.50 Calypso Delegator
    Chelmsford
    6.40 Across Dubai
    8.40 Dougan

    colin leafe 20/06/18 10:40 AM Reply


  • Main bets on.
    So a Bit of loose change on Goring in the hunt cup e/w for fun.

    Warren Bottomley 20/06/18 12:52 PM Reply


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