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  • Sunday 17th June Doncaster and Salisbury
    With 2yo race winners at 20/1, 33/1, 1/3 and 9/4 yesterday I’m glad I left it alone. Marie’s Diamond, the 9/4 winner was joint top rated but not having seen her I had no reason to put her above the other top rated ones.
    Today has particularly happy memories for me as it was probably the day that my interest in 2yo racing turned into a full blown obsession. I was lucky enough to have bought a share in Orpen Grey, a lovely strong colt trained by Tom Dascombe when he was still in Lambourn. 8 of us bought him for 30,000 Guineas and the class 2 race at Salisbury now known as the Peter Walwyn memorial was his third time out. He was unplaced at Goodwood on debut running green, won well 2to in a maiden at Warwick and then hosed up by 5l in todays race. Next time out he ran 2nd to Arcano in the July Stakes after which he was sold to Hong Kong for £300,000!!!!! The syndicate stayed together and re-invested the profits over the next two seasons into two further 2yos who won one race between them.
    It looks another very tricky day today.
    Doncaster 2.40 7f Novice
    Ratings
    1. Aussie View, Chonburi, Koduro, Quduraat
    2. Gallic, Look Around, Penny Numbers, Porcelain Girl
    Ratings Bet 1pt win each of Koduro and Quduraat.
    Aussie View has only placed over 6f at Chepstow and Wolverhampton, so although she should improve for the extra furlong today I think she has to be taken on. Roger Varian’s runner I saw on Friday at Sandown looked fit enough and outran its price so Qudaraat looks solid with Andrea Atzeni up who seems to ride this course so well. Koduro for Karl Burke is a Kodiac who cost 40k and he has Clifford Lee up claiming 3lbs. Usually I avoid claimers on 2yos but Clifford seems to be a sympathetic enough horseman to warrant his high rating. I shall have a saver on Chonburi if it goes off under 8/1.
    The big danger is Look Around, Balding has a good strike rate at the course and his runners are in form but he does not have many debutant winners.
    Salisbury 3.55 Class 2 6f Novice
    Ratings
    1. Critical Data, Khafooq, Magical Wish
    2. Buckingham, Cruck Raille
    3. Sunsprite, Steeve, St Ouen
    Ratings Bet 1pt E/w Critical Data.
    I can’t get away from Critical Data here even though the picture of him here https://imgur.com/a/CYXe4EA
    in Fanaar’s race does not really convince me he is up to this race’s normal winner standard. Despite this he ran very green, saw way too much daylight yet still finished in front of Almurr (2nd at Newbury on Thursday) and was close to some vey nice types. He does not appear to be even the best fancied from the Hannon yard as he is longer than Magical Wish. The Stoute horse Khafooq has to also be a serious threat but as Hamdan does not like his given a hard time on debut I doubt Jim Crowley will give him a tap unless he is in with a serious chance of winning 100 yds out. I don’t like putting them up e/w this short but the two other top rated, Sunsprite and Buckingham all look dangers.
    Incidentally the album link above is from Fanaar’s race at Leicester. I don’t think I posted it when I wrote the review so it is good to see why I like Fanaar so much.
    Hugh

    alpha2 17/06/18 8:34 AM Reply


  • 3:40 Doncaster
    NAGGERS 14/1 generally – E/W (4 PLACES, 1/4 ODDS)

    I have had 1 eye on NAGGERS waiting for him to run as I believe they have been protecting his handicap mark waiting for the right opportunity. He is on a mark of 92 which is down from 98 after finishing 2nd in a Class 2 at Epsom this time last year. If he can finish 2nd in a better race off a better mark, then now down in class and in weight, he should run a big race. NAGGERS has only been seen once this season which was on Soft ground here in March. He has been kept fresh just waiting for an opportunity to strike and in my opinion it is now on decent ground. E/W.
    gl
    bc

    BRIAN 17/06/18 8:37 AM Reply


  • my sundae bests !!

    2.55 Salisbury
    Atomic Jack
    T E Whelan
    George Baker

    Notes: watch out for stables handicap debutante’s .. classic example here !!!
    ************************************************************************

    3yo Filly 3.25 Salisbury
    Reassurance
    S De Sousa
    J Tate
    notes : fully expect sds to bounce this one out straight away and use all of its pedigree stamina catch me if you can !! ( has it in bucket loads … galilleo is the grandad as well 🙂 )

    ****************************************************************
    3.40 Doncaster
    Boy In The Bar
    James Doyle
    Ian Williams
    notes : 3yo + horses in class 3 handicaps a tried and trusted m.o. for this shrewd trainer 🙂
    *******************************************************************
    3.55 Salisbury
    Critical Data
    Dane OʼNeill
    R Hannon

    trainer likes to keep horses to same distance or half a furlong further for win purposes next time out .
    *******************************************************************************
    5.25 Salisbury
    Grey Galleon
    Hector Crouch
    C G Cox
    Notes: FIRST TIME OUT AFTER BEING GELDED (ESPECIALLY FIRST TIME OUT THIS season )
    *****************************************************************************
    gl
    bc

    BRIAN 17/06/18 11:12 AM Reply


  • n.b. !!
    just noticed
    2.55 salisbury Genuinely Crowded

    trainers horse with first time blinkers fitted ……. can be backed blindly at excellent strike rates !! not to be missed !

    thanks
    and gl today
    happy sundaying !!!
    bc

    BRIAN 17/06/18 11:18 AM Reply


  • are these your thoughts/bets brian ?

    g 17/06/18 6:28 PM Reply


  • Hi Brian
    The trainers notes that you are putting up are you a member of a group of trainers who pass on info of their runners on the day and some days you are given up to 30 or 40 horses for you to try and find a winner and in most cases choose the wrong ones.
    I recorded one with this approach a few years back for a few months and was not impressed so be very wary if you are subscribing,and if i recall a few days ago you said on the lines that you are stopping putting them up for it is becoming embarrassing, which leads me to believe that you know that they are hard to find winners.
    Is one of the trainers Warren Greatreaux and we all know who as horses with him with his 200 point max bets which are odds on and surprise they lose on a regular basis.

    colin leafe 17/06/18 7:57 PM Reply


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